Browser Death (2.0)

Berk here…

with a mother-load indicator post.  Your browser will die (24 charts), but there was no real good way to display all this information at one time without killing your poor machine.  Just make the quick timely sacrifice, and you may feast upon the fruits inside.  I’ll be as fast as possible here, as these are mostly updated charts from The Bigger Picture (Browser Death Style).  I’ve posted the information important to the charts (i.e. my opinion) below the chart.   That said, let’s jump in head first.

$CPC pussy-footing around.

$CPC never pulled back far enough for me.  The 10day hit the target range, but with no love from either the 20 or 50.  Not good enough for me…

$NYMO doing some serious coiling here.

$NYMO just rallied off a nice bottom in the 10day.  We need a push back to the upper boundary or we are just looking for another bottom (unless the bottom trendline breaks).

Waiting for 50day to give way.

$NYHL keeps on trucking away.  Look for the 50day to act as support for the 10day (should we be so lucky).  A divergence would be suweet.

All trendlines (arrows) have given way (to their respective MA).

$NYAD has broken it’s uptrending lines, we should be looking for a retest in the 20 and 50day, and a spike in the 10day towards the Dec 08/Jan 09 highs.  That would set up another nice divergence.

Flattening out is looking good, but still fricking high...

$BPNYA is still stuck around the 80% range.  This is the market asking for trouble.  So close, but I am waiting for confirmation before sticking my hand back in the fire.  Should we break the MA cluster, and have the 10day start to drop, keep a careful eye on the slope of the 10day.  If we are REALLY dropping, it should fall off the plate.  No steep decline in the 10day, and we have another dip buying opportunity.

$SPXA50R has a potential double top, but confirmation is a long way off.

Look for MA support at each of the color-coded trendlines.  A double top is possible here (bearish sign fo’ shizzle) but confirmations comes below 40 (10day), 47 (20day) or 65 (50day).  Still a little way before we know for sure.  In the meantime, technically speaking, a push back to new highs would be screaming top, as 90+% of $SPX stocks would be above their 50day MA.

Absurdity...

Flattening out (thank god, do we REALLY need to see 100% of $SPX stocks above their 200MA?) but this can last a while.  Notice the bottom where we put in a quad bottom before blasting off.  Watch for the 10day to start expanding it’s range, and we will know we are getting close.  50day was flat for 4 months before it took off from the bottom.  We are pushing 1 month here (if you stretch), but we could continue to see the 50day this high if we don’t pull back in a steep drop.  Like I said, watch the 10day to start acting a little more lively.

Gimme that spike...

$BKX…  Yadda yadda channel, double top, yadda yadda.  Maybe, maybe not, but what will seal the deal for me is one of those LOVELY spikes.  I’m looking for somewhere in the 52.5 to 55 range.  We are at the bottom channel resistance right now…

Mystery chart revealed.

Here is the Mystery Chart from a few days back.  A few of you guessed it, but here it is in the flesh.  $KRX is coiling away.  I favor an upside spike.  If it IS a triangle, we have our five three wave moves.  Either way it breaks it should be pretty telling (triangle or not).  Another thing I noticed was a interesting cup and handle fractal.  Not a firm believer, and definitely not a trader of cup and handle formations, but this would favor an upside resolution also.

Looking for another drop in LQD

A 4th wave after that massive 3rd wave should take some more time and price movement to retrace the prior move.  As I said before, I expect LQD to rally for a bit after the markets top.

$TNX is starting to tick on up...

I’d like to see a push back up into the 36-37 range where strong previous resistance would correspond with the down-sloping trendline.  Not sure what else to say here as I don’t want to elaborate on the multiple more months of rally we could see.

$GOLD with a potential fractal

Not much to say here.  I think most of us are looking for a spike towards 1100 at the least.  There is a little pattern (yes, it looks like a flag or pennant, but that is not the point) that came about before the prior blow-off, where the MACD was showing equal highs (SLIGHT divergence in histogram) while $GOLD was pushing to new highs.  As we should be close to a blow-off peak, I can see this occurring.  Also, how many times to we see commodities consolidate around a high.  Just not feeling it yet.

$WTIC fairly in step with $SPX

From a charting perspective, I would really like to see a deeper retracement, and a blow-off.  Preferably while the market is dropping, corresponding to a blow-off in $GOLD.  But hell, that’s mental masturbation, AND bad for my wallet.  We got a little divergence, but nothing spectacular.  Next resistance is a bit above 85.

$INDU:$GOLD without waves.  Two potentials here that I will get in depth with in just a second.  Basically, we have a nice support range we are sitting on top of right now.  A drop into that without a rally above could create an ugly (poor) looking H/S top.  However, should the range truly be support, we should be looking for a move back towards the 11 range.  This would happen quickly if $GOLD were to drop while $INDU pushed to a high.

$NDX:$GOLD ration showing potential wave counts

I said we would get into it, and here it is.  I am using $NDX because I have always believed that it offers a cleaner count.  $NDX:$GOLD ratio appears to be a step ahead of the game.  That means we are at a turning point here.  If the ratio continues to drop (equal highs and a marginally higher low right now) the top should be in.  If the ratio can hang on in a wave 2 (either minor or minute degree) or push to new highs in a 5th wave, we are likely 2 highs from a top in $SPX.

Zoomed in $NDX:$GOLD

A little closer look at the potential wave count (and alternates) that I have running.

$GOLD:$SILVER ratio getting complacent

If we continue to consolidate sideways, we are still waiting for Godot.  If we can push up however, it should be a another bit of evidence pointing to a top.

Don’t worry we’re almost done.

$NDX:$SPX ratio helps to gauge speculation

Awfully near a speculative peak… MAs could be acting like they were at the ‘07 peak, or we could just be coiling for one final push.  While there is a divergence right now between the $SPX and $NDX:$SPX ratio, I cannot say with confidence that that is a bearish sign.  Last time it happened, we were topping minor wave 2, not at a new high.

$BDI putting in a lower high?

The black boxes are to be ignored.  If $BDI can’t get above 3500, we would have ourselves more lower lows and lower highs.  Pushing above 3500 would strengthen the likelihood of a new high in $BDI and also $SPX.

Potential double top waiting to get confirmed?

$TRAN is in lockstep with $SPX.  Starting to fall off here, but it could just be a larger 4th wave before a final push up.  Wait for the double top to be confirmed, as you can see what happened the last 2 times we had that potential pattern.

Really close to being done.

What will $UTIL do?

$UTIL is stuck between a strong support and some thin air.  Not sure which one would be more likely to give.  I did mention last time I destroyed your browser, that the $UTIL has a habit of hanging around longer than the $SPX.  So if we do push into the wild blue yonder, that would not necessarily be bullish for the markets.  Right now, nothing is giving.

Goldman Sucks

While GS (and perhaps the market with it) is likely due for a little more correction, I am not real confident we will make it through that support range.  We also have a rising trendline to add to that support.  IMO, we’ll see push above 200 (I know, shocking).

I would not bet my dollar bottom.

If we blast higher from here, the bottom is in.  If not, and by not, I mean, if by the open on Monday the /DX is not flying higher and not looking back, I would be looking for another low.  I’d really like to see a spike down and quick reversal (that would coincidentally correspond to a commodity blow-off), but hey, if I could control the markets right…

Again, thanks for the pretty charts Berk, but WTF does that mean.  That means that while the last time I posted all this, EVERYTHING was bullish.  This time, it’s much more of a mixed board.  At present, I am still leaning towards one final push at 1120.  However, a number of single indicators would quickly have me changing my mind if they flashed a signal.

Below however, is my biggest concern to the bearish case (120min candles).

4th in a series of fractals.

As you can see, and should already be well aware of, we have a potential fractal setting up again.  We put in a high with a sideways retracement (4th wave) put in a spike high, followed be a sharp drop and steep rally.  Their is a final drop, and a trendline connecting the spike high to the rally peak creates the break-out.  If this is to be the case, we should expect some drop Monday morning, pushing outside the 2.0BB before riding the elevator back to (and through) the break-out level.  If this is a fractal, the current one is moving at a much more rapid pace than the others, just something to note.

A final thought.  Once we start to drop (in the next larger move down {P3 or whatever it may be at this point}) we should see a solid rise in the ATR of individual equities.  I am starting to see some of the smaller names flash this sign, but not enough right now, without the support of other indicators, to get too short.

Thanks for bearing with me through that.  It was a lot of info, and horrible for your computer, but I think we will all survive.  With that, I leave you to your weekend.  I have plenty more tickers and counts I will try to get up in the discussion board this weekend, but in the meantime, you have your topic(s), talk amongst yourselves.

Berkster out!

This entry was posted on Saturday, October 24th, 2009 at 10:59 am and is filed under Channels, Currencies, Elliott Wave Theory, Fractals, Market Outlook, Trading, geronimo. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.