Please let me know if this chart can be seen with the lines. I have been having trouble with some posts.

I have been seeing a very interesting pattern... it has happend the last 3 or 4 times there has been a short term trend change in the S&P. I basically took the most recent higher high followed by the lower high... and made a trendline with that. Then appliead that same line to the lower low.... and traded that channel. Look at the results.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&st=2009-09-20&en=2009-10-30&id=p18861075633&a=179114647

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&st=2009-09-20&en=2009-10-30&id=p18861075633&a=179114647

I just saw your post. I am a subscriber to StockCharts, so I see the trend lines no problem. Also I wanted to thank
you for your charts, they have been generally useful, sometimes for several days.

Oh thanks, I just got this on my email. You know I just now realized that my charts will always update even on your screen (sometimes I have lines notes all over the place). The link I attached is my favorite time frame for the S&P. Its been really easy to trade and spot patterns... and you can see the trendlines have held really well.

Here's something I am watching at the moment. There appears to be a nice head and shoulders forming on USO. USO tends to have quick fakeout sell offs. If you see two ten minute candles break below $40 and hold... I think USO may really sell off. My favorite play is DTO - 2X inverse oil (I shorted it all the way up that trendline) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=30&st=2009-08-21&en=2009-11-01&id=p83544592102&a=179591586

Also TLT has been really easy to play... I use TBT for leverage http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=60&st=2009-03-20&en=2009-10-30&id=p30378818943&a=181603652

Take care

We get another 2-3% drop in the market fear will start to set in.

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Berk, this is the possible bear trap scenario that I was talking about in the previous thread.

http://screencast.com/t/3r1tZP7tI

I am not saying that the downward movement of a bear trap couldn't conclude here before taking us higher. I am saying that it would be a wussy bear trap.

Now, this is would be a bear trap that would really impress me:

http://screencast.com/t/VkVHtTq33kPq

we need some fear to set in.

We have nothing to fear, but fear itself.

if i were long this market i would be a bit concerned. i think i can hear
wood snapping in the forest. something is about to fall.

Trannies confirm the BS. Double top, broken uptend.
The Kool-aid is wearing off.

Dollar rally, and commodities get smoked. Just a guess.....

after mole's post yesterday, let's avoid further talk of trannies.

"in site" shove a train up your ***. Learn to love them, follow them, they are wise.

very nice impulse waves. extended 3rd wave. let's see if we can get through serious support @ 1065. beach head after beach head for awhile.

(possted this after seing "New Post")

Was this an X wave at the top and we will have "Groundhog week" with another A-B-C...or did a triangle just end this move as it IT IS DONE!

http://www.screencast.com/users/mkt_ronin/folders/Jing/media/da1327f8-b4b0-4336-94de-93b4956b2130

Steve

HHHHHUUUUUMMMMM! Lower Lows and lower Highs on the SPX. What do you think will happen now? Still looking for that high volume to come in. Maybe this is the week!

DX out of channel to downside but approaching 20 sma daily so, might drop back a bit...

money flows divergence on the daily, too. Might this really be it?

ES @ monthly vwap right now (1066) and, oddly enough, divergently oversold on RSI hourly. Holding my long /es hedge (1063 entry, SWEET!) against a large put position I'm delicately trimming on the way down... if nothing else, I can hang on for teh incredible disappearing selloff later today (aka, afternoon ramp towards 1075 again).

SPX holding TL from a few days back, too, still, so wait for a small bounce before getting gutsy chasing things here -- I see 1072-1075 /es before this is all over unless they just choose to quickly liquidate the bulls before they know what hit 'em.

Really quite frustrated I didn't hang onto my 1087.75 shorts from this morning but what can you do. I realize I am not quite a great position trader, trying to hang on for the large ride -- but still, ARRGGHHH. K, got that out of the way.

These are the days that frustrate everyone. Few bulls saw it coming and believe me, fewer bears. Those of us who stuck it out are happy but paying the price every day we DON'T get a huge catastrophe like this. What chaos. Vix @ 24 again, phew.

TICK about to go oversold divergently for a push lower here -- I suspect a lunch flat-to-rally between 1066 and 1070. Might get crushed again 1-130 pm EST but we'll see what the boys do when back from lunch.

Next bounce i see is arround 1054...dip buyers will get burned till then

During the last weeks I have been following UWM in what appears to be a non confirmation with other indices: the session highest high from Sep 23 still holds and was not taken during the last rally of Oct14. Although UWM (RUT) did close higher in October than the highest close of September. But non-confimation usually appear at reversal point, right?
I attached an hourly chart which also shows that UWM has broken the 3 major fan lines since July low. Also note the unusual very high DOWN volumes on the 2 last 60' bars: haven't seen such heavy volumes in all intraday history (april09 => now) of this symbol. Would be great (for the bears) to see a close below 24.26 today or tomorrow...
http://screencast.com/t/0Msx4xaW5x

I have to tip my hat off to Sol this morning on his post. He impressively called for an imprint of 1062 earlier this morning (even after the runup to 1088). . . That was a pretty gutsy (and apparently accurate) call. . .

I think us bears will take anything at this point though. Can't complain about -12 on the S&P though I'm sure we'd rather have the entire 22 pt move from the top rather than the 12 points from the previous day hehe.

Agreed, in fairness a huge amount of that credit is due to Attila also. He has called stuff incredibly well.

Feel so good get out off work, and arrive home with 120pips gain in EURUSD...

Mole - that is a great leading indicator. I'm curious how it has worked with other moves (both upward and downward) in the last few months. . .

Covered 50 contracts short from 1075.50 at 1062.50. Still have 100 short from 1075.50 and NQ from 1729.50

Nice job, that was the low tick. I covered my 1076 short at 1067.

There was a quarter tick below - just happened to hit that perfectly. And I posted it real time so I wasn't trying to do anything shady. My guess is that this time tomorrow I will have wished I held those 50 but I had way too much exposure.

Nice trade! Hope you didn't sit through the drawdown I did...

Holy moly I was right! And so was Anna, who predicted the reversal, as did a few others here.
New low in the daily chart, this is serious. Mole and I discussed the ferocity of the reversal when it hits last night here... Mole pls forgive the self-congratulation:
here is my blog entry posted last night:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

Well that EUR long was a stupid move. I guess I've been in the make believe markets for so long, that when they turn real I don't realize what I'm seeing.

Curses.

Being caught dangling like this is embarassing and expensive. My hope is that there is a bearish retrace back to the long term trend line to test before plummeting into the abyss. Either that, or the Chinese. lol.

well, I guess you missed my promise to Berk to do "My best" - sorry

See what i mean G? USD is so heavely shorted that every support breached get a squeeze.

The 1.4400 TL has been breached...now what? Im was looking for 1.4860 but not so fast...this could mean that EUR has topped and we`re in for a massive short-squeeze.

Onorio, you are a Euro correct? Just trying to get my head around this...If the Euro is/was kicking ass and taking names would it be prudent to load up at gold at this point even though it is due for a correction?

IMO gold is topping too, when USD bottom gold selloff just like equities.

I thought you were in the clear! what happened to long DXY?

I got out at a pivot point where heavy buying on the EUR usually comes in. i.e. I was "pavloved" into a stupid trade.




________________________________

weekly vwap ES right now
50 sma daily TF right now
EUR support area right now (beware the bounce brief and towards 1070)

just a public service announcement as usual!

Also, DX hit 76 from underside, EUR @ 1.49...

bounce coming i think, 1068ish?

For all of you wondering why the weaknes in the equities mkts

STRONG DOLLAR

I'm anticipating a third touchdown on the highlighted white trend line.

http://screencast.com/t/304Bgi6NJL

Uh, just happened. Let's see if that trend line holds.

http://screencast.com/t/PFeqaeHtbju

1070 spx key. Today must be the low IF IF IF this is a short term low. Have to favor bearish outcome till proven wrong - today's high.

Either a double a-b-c or headed down in a third. should be down into Friday rally a week the down into 11-17. 978 to 1020.

I have dn to the 29 up to the 2nd or 3rd
then dn to the 19th,,.... Price level ????

Very similar. 11-2/3  and 11-16/17 are my next turns. I believe we finished a diagonal that began at 987. Diagonals tend to retrace to their beginning point. However, I would not be surprised to see 900 to 950 if the $ rallies back to it's 81 target.

GP,
I think 907 on the 16th to 19th.
Dont care about the date so much as the price this time.
Seems like you, jaxon, t_dub and I are all pretty much tuned into the same channel.

GS,
Spooky, man. I've got the same dates. Low not at 19th though... I've got it at 17th. Yeah, big difference ! Price levels: Oct 29th: 1005 (yes, 1005)... Nov 3rd: 1053... Nov 17th: 905. I mean, I cannot believe these numbers myself. So, we'll have to wait and see - I can easily look like a clown.. LOL. Immediate support at 1040.

T man
Very cool,  I think you and I and GoldPacker are on the same wave length.
I'll say 998 29th,  1028 or 1058 the 2/3rd and 907 19th of Nov.
I dont care what date it is 17 or 19 I am out about 910 whenever

Rock on Mole!

Damn, why can't all my shorts look like FTWR

this selloff is crazy. even with all that spectacular earnings?

jesus wtf just happened on spy

Looks like euro breaking uptrend from 2nd Oct...
on 2 hr charts
http://www.screencast.com/t/zS8KvBPTEM

Thats a good leading indicator Mr.Mole. I have to make that indicator for tos.

Yes, but now it seems a replay of end of march... so I would't trust the dog too much

p.s. I'm serious on this one, the april 2009 crash would seem confirmed wouldn't it?

Even if it stops working soon, Mole has demonstrated that it's working now. So, anyone with a shorter time frame for trades should use Mole's indicator.

RBW i just mentioned that it would have led us to a bear trap at the start of april (wouldn't be the only indicator to do so, I held shorts during all that month of april)
either that or I'm missing something.

I'm hoping Mole will comment on that. It should be good as long as the Dollar carry trade continues, but you're concerned that it won't continue, right?

All I'm saying is that Mole's indicator should be wicked good for scalping. Anna should use it, for instance. It may or may not work for the longer time frame trading that you're doing.

what I'm saying is that it had the same "opinion" as I had (drop in april), after that it seems to have, and lead, in a up up and away until mid august where it also said "drop from" here (another count I'd share.

They don't seem to know more than we do, moments where it should drop (BTW if you decide to count a 5 wave impulse up with 1 ending end of march, could be all of it, with a w4 from may to july... euro follows that count, simply disbelieved anything before having a new 5 wave completed.

what that also says is that it's not waiting for an ABC, but for the end of A (or C, my personal opinion)

I still don't understand why the USD is compared to the ES and labeled under the "carry trade". A carry trade is when you borrow in one currency at low rates where you believe the currency will depreciate in value, and invest in the assets denominated in another currency where one believes that that currency will strengthen or remain neutral against the borrowed currency, and the returns of the asset will exceed the cost of the borrowing.

I don't believe that one can apply the label "carry trade" to borrowing in USD and investing in USD-denominated assets, no?

damn it, I wish I would've just paid up a dime for those nov $36 DIG puts this morning. could've had 'em for $1.15 oh well.