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Wow, there is definitely weakness in the markets as of late. SPY has failed to break and close past 111, DOW can't maintain being above 10,000 for more than a couple of days. And WTH is going on with AMZN. Seems like calm before the storm. Smart money is slowly cashing out while retail investors are buying in.

Perhaps someone more experienced than I can answer this question....

WTF is up with SHLD??? look at 5 min 20 day. HUGE volume spikes every day at the open. i dont get it

Tried to post before the close, but Disqus wouldn't have it. Went long DRN at 118.75. I think IYR goes up tomorrow. Maybe.

I really thought they were trying to buy it up into the close there, but it just withered on the vine.

I guess at some point, blindly buying the dips is going to fail?

Berk, fratal wise follow this reasoning

Boost wave 5 beyond it's natural end (880 to 932 in may, 1019 to 1080 recently)

take the A wave down to natural end o wave 5 (880 in may, 1019 now)

Boost the wave B to extended (1057 in june, 1101 now)

take a 5 down with 1,6 of A ... 870 in july, 1000 now

AMZN puts looking so tempting here.

I have a fckin load of them. Can't wait for that gap to fill. Give it another 3-4 days

Impressive volume on BAC.

After the close earnings reports of interest:

BIDU, DRYS & DTG

DTG traded as low as .60 in March, now at $24 'n change. Amazing low 7 mos ago in light that the co is slated to report earns of .69 for the qtr!

Anyone else noticing the volume spike on the Dec $23 UUP calls? It's been high as of late, but today is eye popping. I picked some up on friday @ $0.20, but sadly only got a partial fill. It's traded 34,400 contracts today so far, against 96k OI.

MDR looked good this morning... :-P

Skål!

For those thinking about jumping on the short EUR long USD trade, take a look at this chart.

http://tinypic.com/r/25zgu2u/4

We seem really extended right here. And that horizontal support, dates back to September of 08.

I forget who mentioned V on Friday, but thank you, that is one sweet trade. Taking some off right here.

Skål!

Looking promising so far. Seems like breaking the trend line though will most likely occur via gap down rather than waterfall through it. Typical of this market lately to ride in the grey areas in order to trap as many bulls and bears alike. More than one bear trap has played out this way.

Here to hoping though...

Reloading on bounce ;-)

That's why I haven't been seeing any of your comments all day - you changed your avatar! Sorry, I'm very visual - I go by faces.

Reloading what Anna ?

Probably puts. I imagine she didn't get all her chips in on that last down move and is waiting for a bounce to push in. I might be wrong, but she's a strong momentum player. She'll keep piling on and on and on . .. :-)

Update about to come above...

Skål!

Long EUR/USD @ 1.4855

ED forming, positive divergence in minor time frames, lowee BB is at 1.4880....looking for a bounce to 1.4920

YES ONO! nailed it...

scalped long off the same point but been screaming about it for so long I'm glad people are catching it too (knew you'd be on it like a hawk)... Mole's DX reversal pt was a great coincidental confirmation (meaning, co-incidental, not whoa-what-a-coincidence!) of this as a bounce trade, and the RSI was diverging plenty.

1.4845 is a previous swing top too I think? This should work for 30-40 pips or so, my guess, unless Anna's DX reckoning appears... (which I hope it does, in a way)

Let`s hope this long works...i was thinking in reload shorts after the bounce but, no pain no gain.

Just a thought: I think may be more a Euro bounce from oversold than DX true strength. We'll see

The equity index trade continues to be real sloppy IMO. SPX has now overrun Russell on the way down while the QQQQs are off doing their own thing.

Big negative TICKS this afternoon but not much price progress. Makes me wonder if the same people dumping at the bid are turning around and buying other stuff at the bid?

In any case, the 5th to last trading day of the month is living up to its history as the worst again.

TICK also trending up through 2pm afternoon session

Mchugh midday........

Stocks have been volatile Monday, falling 122 points mid-day, reaching the downside price objectives of the small 2-day Head & Shoulders Top pattern we showed over the weekend. Prices have likely completed wave b-down of (E) up, meaning wave e-up is next. That rally could start at any time, and may have started. The next rally leg should be the final move up for the rally from March 2009. Because this will be the spike rally leg of the Rising Bearish Wedge pattern, it could be a sharp and impressive rally as far as price goes. However, the internals -- volume, advancers versus decliners, and momentum -- could be unimpressive. The alternate possibility is wave (B) up has already topped. That is a lower probability at this time.

We have annotated updated charts mid-day Monday for the S&P 500, Industrials, NDX, and Canada's TSX in the Australia Daily Report which is now available at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

Mid-day Monday, Oil is down sharply, off 1.50, Gold is down 12.9, and Silver is down 0.58.

Our New Halloween Subscription Specials include a 13 months for $249 special rate, and an 11 months for $229 special deal, available at the Renew Today or Subscribe Today buttons at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

We will have more for you in tonight's Monday Newsletter.

Best regards,

Robert McHugh, Ph.D

Thanks ... are there any tgts on his up move ?

He gives some projections in his recent interview with Jim Paplava: http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html Fast forward to about 8:30

He writes in his reports that 1120 should be the upside target for this final wave move but that it could truncate and that the internals are suggesting that the recent highs will not be breached.

good timing on that, posted at bottom and now we're well off it....

At one TD Bank in downtown Manhattan, greeters are emptying the branch's coin-counting machines, known as Penny Arcades, 30 times a day as people break open their piggy banks to pay the rent.

Another heads up -- SPX bounce trigger -- met the 133.3 extension criteria to downside of the bottom half of THE WHOLE BIG RALLY CHANNEL -- ie, this was a fakeout unless we push lower here.

HEAR ME YOU BEARS -- BEWARE UNTIL THIS THING SHITS ITS BED FOR SURE. I just don't want to get boned once more!

http://screencast.com/t/kPVlvQiw2

closeup-- http://screencast.com/t/20P9ZALULyh

Your charts are too simplistic.

SPX: http://screencast.com/t/DWqdvXRRPKZ

i think i just popped a blood vessel in my brain

not my fault, my charts have a disclaimer

it's in 3pt font, helvetica, look in between the little red channel and little black channel

I was just kidding.

haha i know -- i take it as sarcasm since i often have 1,000,001 lines on my charts -- hopefully I can catch the events before they occur, ex post facto is ex post fucking worthless. That's the real challenge with so many lines.

The benefits outweigh the risks, though, I can assure you. I cannot begin to describe the insanity my charting platform brings me every morning in terms of coincidences; it's my job to try to harvest them as best as possible and understand their origin(s).

If it works for you that is all that matters. I often find myself having tons of fibs here and there, then I erase all drawings and just slap some simple lines here and there. Simplicity is sometimes better.

Does anyone know if the VIX buy signal is going to be generated today?

No signal on $VIX will be generated today (unless we close above 28)

Skål!

This May be one of those times to ignore the signal, why ?
as the market starts a new die wrection it can be wrong for days FWIW

Did I miss the market breaking a long term trendline?

not on my chart yet, those who use Log charts may have

Nice, new low. Next gap fill down please.

What lasted a Day before, Lasts a year now...

in 1720 during the Mississippi / South Sea's Bubble, when the paper of the time fell from 1000$ to 500$, a rumor / spark causes it to surge to over 700$, every large holder of paper showed up in the alley, and sold it, plummeting to less then 400$ that DAY.

it would close less the 100$ a few months later. (Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds)

oh yeah, new low. . . c'mon punch through so we aren't looking at a double bottom today. . .

that EUR/USD leads the way!

Liesman says that the bank's equity will likely be wiped out under Barney Frank's "too big to fail" resolution for the preemtive unwinding of banks now being introduced in the house of commons.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idU...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33314791

Interesting interview with Roubini:

http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/features/...

Hitting beginning of reversal on DX (zone/area/whatever) as well as previous major area (swing top i think) on EUR -- likely bounce in EUR and equities, just my warning...

perhaps Anna is right though, a DX squeeze seems probable at some time...

5-day swing top. But 10-day has further to run (up to about Retracement Levels area up top).

Pretty sure that was the divergent push lower on EUR -- and the DX top for the day -- just a guess... might get Annas squeeze though soon.

Would love to get squeezed by Anna.

careful what u wish for - "she" might be 400lbs male

This fits better with Mole's Make Or Break post, but the party is over here now. Mole made it pretty clear what the bears have to do. For starters, break the damn rally trend line! Of course, this is easier said/drawn than done.

I think make or break goes both ways. In other words, the bulls have to get it up, and if they can't get it up, they're done.

Take a look at my chart of the Dow Jones Industrials.

http://screencast.com/t/VJsuuiCea53c

The bulls have their work cut out for them. First, the bulls have to hold the lower solid green trend line or get back above it in the event of a break down. Second, they have to break out above the overhead dotted purple trend line. Third, they have to break out above the dotted green trend line. Fourth, they have to break out above the solid upper green trend line. Based on my chart, an ambiguous goal for them would be to rally to the upper dotted purple trend line at about 12,500. I am not saying they can't do it. I am saying that it will be difficult to do. Getting above 10,500 is the most difficult part.

wouldn't my "green pill" option do just that for the bulls?

Spot on post there about DXY. Mole. Top of the 10-day value area overlay for DX is 76.38, that's about 76.25 on the underlying DXY I think.

First tho DXY has to sustain 76.00 today.

Been fascinated by Zero Lite action over past 2 hours even before you popped that trendline up there. ;)

"odds fall off sharply after 76.35" - can someone tell me what that is on UUP ?

Mole - my resistance on UUP was 22.59 - which is also the 20 MA daily ... and then a trendline @ 22.61 ..

cannot resist when I see those lips
http://screencast.com/t/nj0h6SkIqn8Q
pullback soon likely
so far that 22.20 line in the sand held up very well (on daily)

Thanks David :) ... where would you be expecting a pullback to ?

Also, it seems like you are expecting this wave to goto 22.65-22.66 ... like Macro is .... is that right ?

I think 76.35 DXY would be about 22.70-ish on UUP. Can someone more into UUP confirm this?

Next wave of selling is starting .....

GL fellow bears !