Anyone have any good earnings calendars for this week?

Go to Robin Hood Trader's website. they are listed at the bottom for each day of the week.

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Day job stuff for me now. In case the tape gets slow, check this out regarding SEC looking into HFT: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-to-study-h...

Institutional traders detest HFT, I'm surprised they didn't pressure the SEC sufficiently to act before.

H&S on the 1 minute...see if it plays

nice....

Over the past 4-5 weeks, beginning on 23rd September with the FOMC meeting, there have been a number of days where the market has literally tanked 150-200 Dow points in the space of half an hour. This is so suggestive of topping and one of these days, the dip buyers will not be there. I really feel at any time this could happen, so I'm maintaining a core short position here, while waiting for full confirmation of the downtrend before going all in.

goldman looks like its coiling. if i were a betting man, and i am, i'd have to bet on a move to the upside.

so goes goldman, so goes the market...

Here's that right shoulder of an inverse H&S on the /es... everyone prep yourself, brief dip then back to 1068 and 1072-1075 by EOD...

massive migraine so might not be posting as much today, good luck all!

The zig-zags in the tape the last few days will do that to one. Grabbing the Ibuprofen myself!

Exited USO at $40.60. Oil defied gravity as DX went parabolic for a bit. I won't stand in front of that Acela Express train.

If the USD comes back to earth or the rumors about this afternoon's API inventory report build maybe I'll buy it back.

Got Filled on FSLR for 1.97

hi there EuroDollar is leading the down move we can see a rebound in this area, bulls will try to reconquer the previous trading range, lets see.... check out at http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/, regards and good trades to everyone

Also an interesting divergence today.......DXY and Equities both up. I wonder is a decoupling about to start..........but I suspect equities are going to tank at some stage.

Nah, see this re. oil: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-turn...

Very interesting post just went up at Zero Hedge that illustrates just what kind of fumes this rally has been running on. He shows how far the SPY is from the daily VWAP. Currently, it's 150 points.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spy-hits-3-sigma-divergence-vwap

bears, don't panic on the s&p, watch nasdaq

thanks to AMZN today.

not only, nasdaq has been easier to count and seems to e leading

That'll do, pig, that'll do...

(for a bounce, though, this will likely keep on truckin' for some time... 1075ish /es?)

Thanks for posting about X, I was just about to do so. Target is 30 for X.

Definately filled some gaps to the downside. Looking at that gap now from yesterdays open to get filled. Make a lower high and if we have topped continue the decline. JMHO

David - reached your 22.65 tgt on UUP .... now what are you seeing as downside ?

Berk / Mole - X broke the H&S ...

there is one possible fib for this drop going straight to 1030-1035 (compare today to yesterday, first drop 7 vs 4.5 aprox. fib 1.6)

this could be the iii of yesterday's i

EDIT but go easy, I expected mid 1070's+ before this drops, tape chassing can kill

NEXT WARNING--

SPY @ LOWER TL OF THIS WHOLE DAMN RALLY

also, though, DX above 20 day sma + channel upper TL... hrm...

Just alerting as usual...

you looking for a substantial bounce here? Market seems to be shaking off the consumer confidence shock..

Very much so, SPX and SPY and others hitting major TL from march rally -- also plunged after consumer confidence numbers and then rallied hard on volume (likely reversal).

Also hitting downsloping lower TL on SPX and almost hit the top of the 1055-1060 gap that we need to fill eventually -- my guess is we see 1075ish next (later today) and then drop towards 1050 into next week.

10:04 AM October Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: down 7 to 7, vs. consensus of 14. Central Atlantic manufacturing activity expanded for the sixth straight month, with broad indicators continuing to grow but well under September's pace. Backlogs fell further into negative ground. Business prospects for next six months were more positive. Prices expected to grow at quicker rates.

"Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions has grown less favorable, with labor market conditions playing a major role in this grimmer assessment. In fact, the Present Situation Index is now at its lowest reading in 26 years," Conference Board says.

For now this Consumer Confidence number probably ends speculation in the press about the Fed pondering an exit strategy. That weighed on bonds yesterday.

Of course on the FOMC knows what the FOMC will put in their statement and minutes next week. ;)

bid/ask on long term spy options is ridiculous right now.

Mar 70 puts are .33 bid/.42 ask... i don't trust this turd.

I love the smell of napalm in the morning, it smells of victory...

but wait a while, still on danger zone

Covered 50 ES short at 1058.50

nice move, you looking for a decent bounce?

Morning all bought Bidu put spread 3.50 sold 9.50

FSLR http://tinyurl.com/yjs7gfe



Just a heads up on this stock, going sideways for a while, chart is not clear could go either way. but that gap to fill
has me wanting to either do an OTM bull call spread or a strangle.

Whoops: 10:00 AM Oct. Consumer Confidence: 47.7 vs. prior 53.1 and consensus of 53.2. Expectations 65.7 vs. 73.3 in Sept. Present situation 20.7 vs. 22.7.

Just a thought -- if we dip to vwap near 1066 again and rally, that'll make a great inverse head and shoulders pattern (as we had like, last wed. just before the rip-roaring afternoon rally that f***ed many a bear). Beware.

Consumer confidence numbers in 5 minutes...

DTG down more than 12% here.

closed out most longs and shorts, still have some qqqq call spreads just in case because im short tech pretty heavily. i dont think im going to trade much today, just watch and wait for a good short entry

We all agree we need a leg down. The question is whether we made the top of the bull rally off March lows.... or are we going higher and then drop.... There is key support @ around 1065 on SPX.

nasdaq almost at yesterday's close... might just work...

seems like EUR didn`t had finished the 5 waves down, we should be in the 5th now with a lower low before a correction to 1.4940

My 30 min chart now has 1.4818 as a price exhaustion target on the EUR (TD propulsion /momentum indicator). Just need to close below this 1.4858ish support in the next 30 minutes for it to be qualifed /valid. - This level at 1.4858ish is also short term support from yesterday.

We have the lower low on EUR and are sitting on a short term trend line and the lower bollinger, as I type. I still see my original retrace level as a highly probably target (1.4845ish).

9:04 AM Aug. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: -11.3% vs. -13.3% in July and -11.9% consensus. Nationally, home prices are at levels similar to fall 2003.

Looks like I still got an account left after selling my IWM puts near the close, holding USO overnight - and then like a real nut, buying some Q's in late AH playing a dip on the Ask price.

Have to say, I think the first two 30-minute bars after the NYSE open are going to show one helluva battle. Especially with the Consumer Confidence report smack in the middle. Already got conditional orders in to get those IWM puts back. Hold your hats... :)

I would hope so...lots of volatility and hopefully volume, those are the things of market tops....

Couple of questions for you guys...

What do you think auctioning off of 123 Billion in T-bills will do for the dollar & how do you think the market will react to this?

It's not the auction but the results (participation etc) and how the yields behave post auction. If they rise, it may be bullish for the USD, but not for risk assets.

Last Auction....

"The Fed has been in the bond market since March, buying up to $300 billion Treasurys in an effort to help keep consumer-borrowing rates low. The central bank is expected to complete the buying this week"

The bottom now in place needs to get tested...this ought to do it.

Yup, last one on Thursday - unless the FOMC changes its collective mind next week (unlikely).

*Groan* I don't like the timing of the FOMC meeting.....

What bottom?

Yields have been higher. What is noteworthy is that the players in these auctions are still playing the same old game, even as QE comes to an end. They push the yields up to ensure a better price for themselves in the auction, and then sell to the FED at a higher price post auction (yields come down).

Watch the yields from the auction (did they go higher, stay the same, or lower) to see how participation was. Then watch what happens after the auction (over the next day). If yields stay high = bad for risk assets (equities etc). If yields come down = possible boost for risk assets. If yields don't change, see what happened to them in the auction to see if it is good or bad for risk assets. Also watch MOODCBAA index vs the 10year. A widening spread is bearish for risk assets, and vice versa for a narrowing spread.

Dollar has a bottom in I believe...now that we have come off it a bit it should probably be retested. But tomorrow is Wednesday and as we know Wednesday is "Anything can happen day"

The cliche is "just watch the tape." but in situations such as this (just read the posts below for the general sense of indecision) then the tape itself says very little. I am sensing a change in trend that will lead the tape. We have finally reached the point where "good news" will be sold off regardless of how "good" it is. As noted by other posters, financial sector is weak. They led this move up, and they will lead it down. Long calls in FAZ plus 2X inverse ETFs. This is the point to be all in short IMO. Just an opinion. It will be easy to be very right or very wrong and I think we'll know by Thursday.

in financials I think you may be right feels like we had i of 3 down (of a first leg?)

Gmak great post thxs for the premarket. here's to getting your mojo back asap.

EUR just bottomed -- heads up -- 61.8 of last corrective wave

Just in case it does start heading south again, be aware of the 161.8% extension/S2 confluence just above 1.47 below us

http://screencast.com/t/0pdtqFP2Roxh

FWIW:

TD has a retracement (actually two of them) at around 1.4845; This bounce looks weak - especiallly in light of the fact that (on a 3 min chart) we have seen lower highs and lower lows since Europe opened at 3AM. I think we will see overhead resistance come to bear around 1.4873 - 78ish and a move lower. IMO. Remember, no skin in the game at the present time.

Looking at the 30 min chart, we have bounced off of an important TD support level, and the lower Bollinger. Plus the TD pressure is indicating a low risk buy - but the current bar needs to close for this to be valid (without the price falling much). It doesn't close until 9AM

All this suggests to me that in the very short term we may still have a lower low. This would imply breaking the bottom of a wedge (bearish wedge, but....).

0 for 2, I guess. Momentum took the EUR up to the upper bollinger instead of getting stopped at lower resistance levels. Top of minichannel is at around 1.4900 but price momentum is waning. We have a low risk SELL with stop at 1.4891 (on EUR not futures) being st up. Need EUR to stay below 1.4887 for this to be valid on a 3 min chart (on this bar only - which closes at 9:39 [EDIT: I meant 9:09])

Extension? 1.4970?

That's more or less my take. CL futs and USO been tracking Euro pretty closely of late, we'll see!

Great chart!

what do you mean? as in, is there an extension targeting 1.497?

Forget it, i didn`t understand what u mean at the first time. But yes 1.4979 is 61.8% of yesterday impulse.

Pre-Market warm up
First off, I made a rooky mistake yesterday and reacted to what I thought the market would do (based on prior months) in the EUR, instead of what it was actually doing. This turned an excellent trade into a big losing trade. I'm taking a TO for a while until I can get my head back on straight. As you read my posts, bear in mind that I no longer have any skin in the game. Thes lesson is to play the market in front of you, not the one behind you. Now onto more interesting matters.

Yesterday, the USD popped - there really is no other word for it. Overnight, DXY gave back around 17 bps with all currencies strengthening a bit. Just what one would expect from profit taking. A lot of stops in FX got run over and no CBs came in to buy. To me this suggests that the FED was draining liquidity from the US financial system in some way. We'll only be able to see Thursday after close when the Wed B/S is released here:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/RELEASES/H41/

When you're looking at the figures, look at the last column. All the rest is a daily "average". MBS is at 776BB (even tough I've seen some bloggers say we are at 960+). This is out of a 1.2 bb program. You've probably seen my computation using the Pareto 80/20 rule to come up with a possible target on the SPX of 1122, from the leverage provided by the FED's MBS purchase program.

QE is expiring. MBS runs out in March 2010. Where is a desperate FED to get the ability to reflate after this? Clearly, they need a market event to create fear in CONgress in order to get permission to forge ahead. The last time they needed action, the FED pulled liquidity from the financial system which was instrumental in initiating the last crash - although things did seem to run away from them. Ticker Forum has talked about this many times so I won't get into it. The equation is: FED pulls liquidity from financial system = accelerating withdrawals from risky asset classes = fall in price in equities and comodities (etc).

Equity
Asia closed red by 1.5 - 2%. Europe is mainly green with the DAX up 0.5%; It's been a steady climb since bottoming at around 5632 at 6AM EDT. The observation is that there is no carry through from the US markets, which suggests that it was a short-term finger of instability. This means that there may be some minor echoes of weakness, but that it will likely be business as usual in SPX. I would pay attention to the TNX and to the Tbill and Tnote auctions going on this weak. Poor auctions will imply the POSSIBILITY of rates in the belly and long end of the curve rising more. This will make risk assets less attractive = decline in price.

SPX
SPX finished below the mid-bollinger. I would expect SPX to claw back above that 1070 level - but not with conviction - i.e. no blow out. TD pressure has not yet gone below the oversold signal line (although it can go up from here). This suggests a day or two or possible weakness, but EUROPE and FX leads me to believe that it will be tepid (unless the FED continues to pull liquidity from the US financial system).

If we do continue down, the lower Boll. is at 1029ish. Before that, there is a TD risk level at 1050 - which acts as support - and the long term trend line is just above that at 1052ish. These would be support levels.

From a risk management point of view, if one were to go short here, and the market moved up, there are ES pivots at 1072, and 1083 - which is quite a distance before one could conclude that the trade is wrong. If one were to go long here, support below is where I mentioned for SPX, and at 1056 and 1045 for ES.

So it seems we are right in the middle of where a wrong decision could be verified. Not good odds which says now is not the time to put on a long or short position unless you are scalping or doing intra-day trades. IMHO


FX
USD (DXY) is at 76ish, off the high. Note that Asia did not come in an thrash it. CAD, JPY, and GBP are mildly stronger. EUR is mildly weaker (essentially flat).

It looks like no one believes that yesterday was the start of a trend. EUR did make a run at the pivot at 1.4928 overnight, but sold off at the European open.

EUR pivots:

R1: 1.5011
Neutral: 1.4928
S1: 1.4793

Watch the US Tnote auctions. Given how the 10yr rate is above 3.5%, and how it was done in expectation of the auctions, I would suggest that rates will come back after the auction (fall somewhat) - providing a nice leveraged return. The difference here is that the FED has very little money to buy back the Tnotes, so the demand may not be as strong given that there is no secret exit from the burning room.

If the auctions are successful and the 10yr falls post-auctions, I would suggest that this would lead to a weakening of the USD. If the auctions aren't successful, then risk assets will fall in price. I don't know what will happen to the USD, but it may strengthen (or not, correlation is not causation).

I'll let you know when I decide to go back into the markets. It may be in a week, it may not be for a couple of months. The market will do what it was going to do anyway. I'll just watch until I figure out why I made such a stupid move yesterday (some psychological flaw that will lead to more losses if I get back on the horse right away, no doubt!).

Cheers.

Thank you. Like a compass in the fog..........

Thank you gmak, much appreciated. Very wise of you to take a break at this point, I hope it goes well for you.

Agree with you GMAK, we're at a place known as no man's land....where people would rather wait and see and no one wants to dive in first.

good luck on your break and thanks for all the fish..err.. data

MarketWatch contrarian indicator says that we will be down today -- with the futures flat and the headline "Whiff of a Street Snapback" and the subheading "The bulls are back waving the flag, seemingly undeterred by two days of heavy losses."

That's called subliminal messages for the retail investor.

subliminal? That and saying the bombing of hiroshima was a subliminal message to the japanese LOL

LOL

Or the EUR rallye 70pips from here or is in deep shit...

Just completed a zigzag abc down on the 1min - should rally from here...

Quote of the day

Wall Street... is like a lovely and accomplished woman who must wear black cotton stockings, heavy woollen underwear and parade her knowledge as a cook because, unhappily, her supreme accomplishment is as a harlot.

J.K. Galbraith
The Great Crash 1929
[nod to TS - a great read]

Heads up -- if the DX is flagging to the upside (this being the triangle at the top of the pole now) we'll need to pop now:

http://screencast.com/t/v39Y1VIl7Twv

We've got monthly and weekly VWAP on DX below to support us and we're at the CRUCIAL 76 level. Just a heads up to you overnight FX'ers (onorio, ahem!)

Not calc'ing EUR targets just yet but I figure the perfect snap of 1.4928 today (pivot! to the pip) is a good indication that this retrace will play nice with fib targets. It was a 38.2% retrace of the move down top to bottom so far (from 1.5062 or w/e) and also pivot + some SMA...

Cable seems to be leading by a day in the dollar pairs - traced a slightly different pattern too, an expanded flat if the fibs are anything to go by. By that measure, it's already at the target we have for EURUSD now, so interesting to see what it does from here - http://screencast.com/t/SMHPmjzHpWfq

EURUSD is correcting from yesterday free-fall, i`ve a target for this correction arround 1.4947.

We should have started (c) up. Above 1.4940 i close my 1.4860 long and reload shorts.

Did you scalp out any at the pivot? I was surprised it hit thepivot dead on like that, usually there's some pip or two throwover. This (tonight) was uncanny, right to the pip... was thinking of you, hoped you locked a little profit...

as i said above, was also a 38.2% retrace of top to bottom of last day's drop

No im long since yesterday and planing to keep till 1.4940, dont wanna scalp corrective moves.

It was fun how the first move stoped right at 38% retrace, but i still looking for 50% at least.

that's a shame -- i always hate when i realize i'm holding out for something that ends up being 10, 12 pips from where I've targeted... so I don't fill, and kablooey. You know the rest.

Just remember, if the DX squeeze does begin, then beware. That's all. Best of luck!

Im targeting 1.4947 but i will unload above 1.4940 lol...

I waiting for that squeeze as a 3rd wave, we should be in 2nd, first let me dump longs and reload shorts than let the fun begin!

Yeah that looks good to me - 50% retrace and (a)=(c) colliding around 1.495 - http://screencast.com/t/0Hns5Z5OwzL

Oh no! I read Mole's title as Spectacular Bear Monday Rub Down. You mean, I'm supposed to be skeptical!?! ;-)

Hey, skepticism is great and all but everyone needs to relax around here while they're being skeptical. Maybe relieve some stress by deciding what you're going to do ahead of time. If you held short positions last night and feel like you may want to cover them tomorrow if the tape moves up, how about picking a line or number for your stop. Why not choose targets ahead of time too? Oh, and simplify. I've stripped down to some horizontal price levels with just a hint of a channel in the background.

http://screencast.com/t/I8Pj9oK2S

Nothing special. That's the point.

Stop giving me a hard time folks. I did not have the time to do another more elaborate post last evening - was stuck in meetings for the remainder of the day. Plus Eric and I worked into the night to finalize a new Geronimo release. I can only do so much and my subs come first.

Actually, the above was mostly a pep talk to myself.

Damn real-time updating (which I actually like) made me confuse which comment of mine you were replying to. My "Oh no! I read Mole's title as Spectacular Bear Monday Rub Down" one isn't directed at you, Mole. In this case, you're not my audience. By the way, you don't owe me anything, and you give me far more than I deserve. I'm just trying my hand at 3 AM humor and getting myself into the right state of mind to trade in a few hours. If people are still agitated, I'm encouraging them to calm down. If we gap up, I'm going to be calm about it.

I'm not giving you a hard time. I'm just astonished that another West Coasty would be awake at this hour. If you don't want to elaborate, that's fine. I'll go back to playing chess.

damn it
you woke me up - do u ever sleep?

Yeah, I nap here and there whenever and wherever I can find a warm, quiet place to sleep away from librarians, policeman, and gangbangers. For instance, I plan to sleep three or four hours in one of the wooded parks after market close this afternoon.

I appreciate reading a concise "this is what may be next" type of analysis funny how many trader bloggers cant seem to do that when it counts - like now. Two things to add: I calculate the trend support line back to March at 1060 and prior resistance which is now support at 1058. I would also like to say that the 50 day simple MA is at 1043, so once we get through 1060 we will be talking about anther 15 to 20 point drop before confirmation I am afraid. The other thing which makes me somewhat bearish (I have been in cash or hedged with covered calls for two days now, and with only short-term day trades) is the fiasco happening to banks: ING down another 10% today after 18% yesterday - Neelie Kroes, the Euro competition commissioner told ING what to do is scaring the crap out of everyone here in Europe, enough so that even the very strong positive earnings results from BP can't keep the markets green over here. Similar fears today about Frank's plan I am afraid will undermine the good earnings stories we are seeing and surely make us test these two support levels - at least the 1058-60 area. With that only 6 points away I think the bull's only savior today could a suprisingly upbeat Shiller Home Index report, but who knows. Bad news there and I doubtful we will hold the 1040-45 support. So like it or not I think the odds are looking pretty good for the bears. Thanks again

amzn looks like it will go back to the top of the GAP at 110

naked jan 110 puts here, will resell previously covered short 105 jan put once we hit 112 or so to capture some spread, if it's really dropping i'll try to wait it out until 105...

Good day. One comment about trendline in SPX daily posted by Mole. My chart looks like http://www.flickr.com/photos/42905134@N08/4048877257/sizes/l/ There's a big difference and it's not near trendline. Comments ?

Are you using a log chart? I will redraw using TOS or Ninja as soon as I fall out of bed. Thanks!

It's not logaritmic. I just can't draw your version on my charting platform. Another example http://www.flickr.com/photos/42905134@N08/4049330697/sizes/l/ . Your welcome. Some really nice and hard work from your side. Good trading!

Read my reply below - he just connected March and JULY lows leaving out Oct 2 low - that gives support right on the 50 day at 1043 or so. Nothing to do with logs - trust me

Trust needs to be EARNED!

Just kidding - I'll take a look in the morning - typing this in bed right now...

Can't sleep? Decided to wake up early?

I got carried away playing online chess.

Can't sleep because IRS so fucking hot here in L.A.

well, hope everything turned out right on the black box front. Things went calm here, guess skeptical bears are moody and broody bears.

Get some sleep before trading time is upon you.

best regards

I, too, find the US tax code sexy

Drawing these bloody lines is an art form. Your's just touches the two bottoms in March and July. In that case the intersection today is at the 50 day MA at around 1043 thereabouts. Personally, if I have three bottoms and can fudge a trend line that hits all of them I consider that to be the more reliable support. Maybe someone with a more scientific answer can give us some advice on this. I think the impication though is what I said above - support is between 1040-45 to 1060.

In Europe so far looks like we are consolidating yesterday's fall, BUT we have seen this before, instead of another leg down we see a slow grind up all day...DAX idf it can get above 5700 (more like 5720) then we're back in a channel since early OCT...BUT GUT INSTINCT says one more leg lower to 5520...top of GAP..
http://www.screencast.com/t/eyXPCRPO8Vyy

I totally agree with your instinct. Consolidation is a sham with out the banks.

From Terry Laundry of T Theory --

"Oct 26th Comment: No change to forecast of mid Oct top- late November low. Todays down turn further confirms the top. Mid channel (1037 in the table) is the current down side objective before a rally. Terry"

I do continue to see potential for a sell-off. The banks sold off hard. The banks and financial institutions acting as banks are the ones driving this rally with POMO money in order to distribute stocks to others at the highest prices they can get.

No doubt...distribution is going on. Strong hands selling to weak. There are trillions to be distributed. It takes time, perhaps several rallies and pullbacks.

This is the biggest rally in 100 years. The administration doesn't understand financial systems, and the old school cronies that created this mess, or call it thievery if you wish, are advising the administration.

Platinum dropped like a rock today, as did the banks if I may say again.

6 Charts below. These are sufficiently clear that if you need to ask what they mean, you should maybe, not trying to be insulting here, but maybe you ought not to be playing this market right now, because the sharks are big and hungry.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/few-charts-to-bring-clarity.html

No, you're not the only skeptical bear here. I closed shorts positions when the DAX blasted through its 3rd support of the day and I even picked up a couple of really small US-longs later. Real Estate has held up pretty well over there the past couple of days and I always get suspicious when that happens. Especially when there's important RE numbers coming out this week.

The DAX sustained quite a bit of chart damage yesterday and could easily drop another 70 pts from its current 5.650 area. Last line of support for Commerzbank is 7.40. The situation looks very grim for the bulls but they've dug themselves out of worst patches than this.

PS. Many futures traders know things can perk up quite a bit during European market openings. I've noted before and I'll say it again, it can pay to fade the first break out regardless of its direction. Sometimes it breaks out and keeps going but that's rather unusual.

Commerzbank slid through 7.40 like a hot knife through butter. This practically guarantees that US-banks are gonna get cremated today. I sure picked a great time to be skeptical. :D

Wow, and disqus doesn't *actually* put up my (previously self-asserted) 'epic' post...

here's what I can scrape together from my screencast account(s) and (green, but slightly burnt) memory...

-------------------------

Where to begin…

Not to toot my own horn, but since we discuss lack of participation here rather often, I'd like to point out that I offered this this afternoon:

At 2:40 pm EST:

PRSGuitars
Pretty sure that was the divergent push lower on EUR -- and the DX top for the day -- just a guess... might get Annas squeeze though soon.

Screencap: http://screencast.com/t/c1S6XKFyk2ku

PRSGuitars
Another heads up -- SPX bounce trigger -- met the 133.3 extension criteria to downside of the bottom half of THE WHOLE BIG RALLY CHANNEL -- ie, this was a fakeout unless we push lower here.

HEAR ME YOU BEARS -- BEWARE UNTIL THIS THING SHITS ITS BED FOR SURE. I just don't want to get boned once more!

http://screencast.com/t/kPVlvQiw2

closeup-- http://screencast.com/t/20P9ZALULyh

… and that's where we ended up for the day. Hrmph.

The mystical /DX channel: http://screencast.com/t/jb0h5Hkkbc

Some SPX alternative view: http://screencast.com/t/NLV9LfPF

So Mole and Berk -- believe me, there are others on the board who are skeptical! Holy hell everyone is skeptical… we're also just hopeful…

SPY and DIA are right on their monthly VWAPs, Qs are significantly above and IWM is a good 2% beneath its VWAP for Oct.

If stocks like AAPL and AMZN are blasting off to new highs while the NQ gets left in the dust, what does that mean for the NQ when AAPL and AMZN correct and fill those gaps? Yup. NQ catches up to the downside. Might've just found my next victim on a rally towards 1755 (cannot BELIEVE I didn't pull the trigger at 1771-1773) where i last shorted 1753.75 for 75 points. Muahaha. I think there might be outperformance on a pop to 1755 AT LEAST where we can take an easy entry against the weekly (and, apparently, continuous from last week's weekly) VWAP short, targeting 1725 (monthly VWAP) and then lower, 1675-1700 if you wish with a trailing stop.

I should also mention the 1780 level on /NQ is a 61.8% retrace of the 08 bear market and a 78.6 retrace of the Aug 08 - Nov/Mar crash wave/double bottom. So -- 1780 is now, for those of you who can't tell from wicks like this: http://screencast.com/t/N6NFeXewYZqb, that thats a good sign of topping action.

AMZN 133 extension on daily and monthly timeframes, credit v8muscle -- aka "Oh, great, just what I wanted, more 133's to deal with" -- http://screencast.com/t/bmfhSmpdot
--------------

If i can come up with more in the meantime I'll throw it up on the board. Thinking 1075 for weekly vwap or so before more downside, that's my guess. If we drop hard from here we'll accelerate on SPX through the downside TL and I suspect there's a two-way trade here at least for another day or so... 1058-1062 bottom, 1075ish, then 1040s at least -- if the currency situation cooperates.

Atilla made a decent point though, that there's very little to suggest this lets up other than the expectation that we get a technical bounce (and/or POMO or GDP pump, but thats par for the course).

I would love to see 1090 again, thats for damn sure

I'd rather if we didn't, and would probably turn bulish till 1190's if we did....

I see only three bearish engulfing patterns since the March low. Like the rest of TA there has been no follow-through.

We have one working now. I think where we stand at the close of Wednesday will tell us if the trend has change. Off course, 500 Dow points down tomorrow would be a good start too (g)

http://www.screencast.com/users/mkt_ronin/folders/Jing/media/b9e755af-a906-4030-9a13-89d364aa01ce

Steve

End of 3's?

End of Wave 3
end of iii of 3 of wave 5
end of 3 of wave 5

They just let "harmless" 4's get away with it?

p.s. nice find, it fits and gives objective status to my prefered count

AOh sure! The wheel stops spinning in the cage and you go sleep on it! What about me? I need to know where the mkt iss going in a SSH world.

Steve

And so I woke up and answer you... mid 1070's before any decision

>>nice find, it fits and gives objective status to my prefered count<<

And what would that count be?

I think it's clear that we either did a ZZ (but I would have expected it to close strong) or all that noise after the drop was a posssible 2 and it's a 3 down tomorrow.

Steve

Steve, your A's (engulfing black candles) happen to be at the start of wave 4, iv of 2 of wave 5 and 4 of 5 of what to me is C of 4 of P3.

Is it clear now?

Guys - just saw something on the fractal that everyone has been talking about .... I think this is HUGE !!

Note how in the last time ...after the sustained push up - we saw a 3 day mini dip, 1 small push up to double test the high, then the 3 big candles down, 1 big candle up, then 3 more big candles down and 1 small down candle that came to a MA - from there we bounced and did not look back...

Now let's see what is happening now ... after the sustained push up - we saw a 1 day mini dip, 1 decent push up to double test the high, then the 2 big candles down, 1 big candle up, then 2 more big candles down (TODAY), ...

... that leaves us with one small candle down tomm, that would touch the Mar trendline @ 1059 and bounce back to a MA .... the level we reached today is the 20 MA on the daily, the 200 MA on the 60 min as well as gap window support on the 60 min ...

So, if we say this is a fractal, it is essentially a rushed version of the previous one .... and based on that we could see a down day tomm with the bounce start tomm that may just be it for the correction ....

Hope this helps ....

That's pretty much what Berk and I have been suggesting, yes.

Yes you have ... just wanted to share the perspective from a daily chart perspective into tomorrow :)

you skiped a fractal in between but the reasoning holds... if it is a proportional fractal, if it is at an higher magnitude wave... it goes way down to another trendline

BTW if you are right the next cycle (including rise and drop to current trendline) is about 2 weeks as I mentioned earlier

SSH - I was looking at it on the daily - were you looking on some other timeframe ?

Also, can you share more info on the cycles that you were mentioning ... chart or something ?

not perfect fractal but try this

initial fractal from march low to july low
from july to beggining of october low that's fractal 2, aprox. 0.6 size and time of original
from the beggining of october low onward fractal 3, still 0.6 of prevous , about .3 to .4 of original (as you identified)

best I can do right now

well, one more comment and I'm going to bed

1068 is a fine fib to end wave 5 (let's leave the discussion of orthodox tops aside)

So I wouldn't be surprised if after a nice drop we'd go back to 1069 and start selling hard.

Any takers on this one? Comments»? Critics?

p.s. it would align well with a retest of resistence in some weeks

So essentially you are saying that P3 has started ?

not realy, a wave 5 might be missing, but it could be just a truncated that rises from 1000 to 1068.

Might be a new channel shifting and this was just i of 3 up.

And it can be a wave 4 and not P2

For me the drop should have taken place in april or in august... right now? doesn't sound ok, so maybe they'll use that to make an harmless intermediate correction

spy under 106
bounce 107.50, test of 105 - if breaks, next stop 102
where r u going? you cannot go
we need to hold the fort while mole and berk are fixing black boxes

seriously, don't you think I gave people enough to think of (if they so choose to do)?

just tell me you'll keep the flame so I can leave... Pleeeease

hey! still there or what? I was jocking on the ban (you started it) get back here and leave an old hamster get his rest ;-)

p.s. and thanks for holding the fort

was doing quick SPY video, dog tired, good night all

what time zone are you on?
good night

yeps, but I was talking of the rebound from 980-1010 to 1069 (wave 5 failure)... it would be after the move you described.

I'm going to bed, I'm at GMT, zulu time, and you can hold the fort for a while, either getting your ass banned (LOL) or taking a look at what I posted down there.

Seriously, I'm wasted, this last month I barely sleep

take care

evening guys - looking for any opinion on my current positions if possible.

short AMZN via 115 puts
short Chevron via 70 puts
long FXP via 11 calls
long SPY via 109 calls as hedge

thanks :)

date of options?

amzn + cvx + fxp are NOV
SPY are DEC

so you're short november and long december... might actualy work... or not, theta burn will hit your shorts fast if you're "early"

on the other hand, just noticed one of your longs is realy a ultrashort on china...

everything is clearly OTM on the short side...

and the long is far from having a decent leverage compared with your short bets.

Well, it's a nice lottery ticket IMHO. Hope it's money youi can loose because it's the most probable outcome.

I don't mean to offend, just giving my opinion (and as I stated... It might actualy work, in my blue scenario it should turn a profit)

thanks - yeap no offense taken at all. i asked for opinions.
im taking quick profits anyway, dont intend on holding until expiration. quick 1 or 2k is all i take and run.

g'night!

don't mention it, and this is as it should be, devils advocate (though I mellowed it because of my blue pill scenario... darn)

well, Disqus is at it again... your comments and replies are not being updated...

see you all tomorrow

Asia just opened way down -- Hang Seng down 2.3%. Someone remind me why I don't just forget about the U.S. -- Asia seems to just follow what we do exactly. I wonder how strong the correlation is?

very, and a 1,5X sensitivity that's why I shorted emerging markets

SSH:

I have seen this idea many times that EWT does not work now because of market manipulation. To me it is just an excuse to rationalize why the market is not doing what our pet EW prediction says it should. When we figure the market should go down (or up), and it does the opposite then it can be blamed on outside forces forcing the market (the implication is against EWs). This wasn't the case 80 years ago so it had to be perfectly predictable back then compared to now. I say nuts!

If EW is valid and is based on the laws of the universe, then it cannot operate outside of the laws of the universe. Which means that regardless of whether the PPT is real or not nobody can change the laws of nature.

I've come to see that EW is both extremely powerful, yet extremely useless and dangerous to try and profit from it consistently. I've come to see that the markets will:

a) Always trace out EW patterns since patterns are bound by the laws of the universe, and;

b) Those EW patterns are rarely clear in advance, most times unclear, and sometimes absolutely impossible to know until long after the fact.

Witness from maybe June to now. What is the predictive accuracy of most EW experts (who are mostly bearish)? Probably something like 5% or 10%. How can you have that, when throwing darts blindfolded at an up/down target will yield 50%? The market can only go in one of two directions anyway! You have a 50% chance of getting it right whether the market will be up/down tomorrow, next week, next month, next year! So why do we put so much faith in the predictive power of an EW count? Isn't traditional TA better at predicting than 50%?

The way I look at it.

>>If EW is valid and is based on the laws of the universe, then it cannot operate outside of the laws of the universe. Which means that regardless of whether the PPT is real or not nobody can change the laws of nature.<<

You are stating a principle as if it were ordained by Descartes. Your statement above attributes a preordained action. And while I have bought the dead low or sold the dead high and predicted where the market must then go, it often taakes quite a bit o churning until that traade becomes clear. And I have the bonus of knowing where my alternative count must bee defaulted to.

What do you think happens tomorrow if a large firm states that due to its investments, it will only pay 95 cents on the dollar? That was what started the collapse back in Septemer of 2008. How did it fit into "nature"? It seems to have caused wave 3, but likely, any bad news would have caused the drop as that was the setup that was developing.


If you look at time-frame and volume, one individual in a quiet market can screw up a wave count because I used to do it in the sugar pit when it was quiet. 4 can't overlap the top of 1 in EWT in a 3rd wave, right? (you should know that answer without looking ). Well what if the it's quiet and I can stuff a print up on the board below the top off wave 1? Did I just invalidate the entire theory? Was some Tesla device to have generated a force field preventing me from "screwing with nature"?

If you have not read the article this weekend on ZeroHedge about the money banks got and what they did with it I highly recommend it. This is NOT a natural time. There is a void in "the force" so to say. And that is what has been making using any method that has worked in the past more difficult.

Kondratieff believed in long-term cycles (and we may well be in a massive down one now) and Stalin believed he determined the prices. Who won? I'd say Stalin. He had more money, more power, and put a bullet in Kondratieff's head.

EWT works....but unfortunately, there are times when someone with enough money to overcome the natural transactions of humans runs the table. EWT dos not fit under hard laws of physics as if on a Periodic Table. They might need to manipulate the market with 50,000 SPY contracts at just the rght time compared to my 5 lots of sugar, but they do it. To think that any of these firms do not have a dedicated department that is looking at all EWT newsletters and acting accordingly is not giving credit to a firm such as Goldman Sachs who makes $100 milion+ on more trading days than it doesn't.

If this didn't make sense to you, or you disagree, I'd say you have not followed EWT long enough. I've watched it for over 20 years. I see nothing better.


>>I've come to see that EW is both extremely powerful, yet extremely useless and dangerous to try and profit from it consistently. <<

Might I suggest you look at charts prior to 2008 and see if you have the same opinion.

>I've come to see that the markets will:
>a) Always trace out EW patterns since patterns are bound by the laws of the universe, and;
>b) Those EW patterns are rarely clear in advance, most times unclear, and sometimes absolutely impossible to know until long after the fact.<

My answers to the above:

A- incorrect...there is no force field demanding a mkt do something in the time frame you desire.

B - Incorrect...for example, watch tomorrow. Can you tell me anything better to trade with that knowing we have either completed a ZZ correction and will reverse, OR, that the 5 wave move down completed from today's high, a 2nd wave was done, and the market might collapse? Either allow me to trade AND define when I am wrong. The rest is money management and self-management. That's why fewer than 10% make money trading. Aside from commissions, it's a zero-sum game.

ZigZag possibility:
http://www.screencast.com/users/mkt_ronin/folders/Jing/media/d0683bc1-05c5-4629-97df-5af6e4535957

If you have something better I'd love to hear it. But it sounds like you have traded poorly with it and a system is pretty much the last item involved in making money. Modern Portfolio Theory books that teach "buy and hold" and diversification should be tossed out the window, so what do you suggest?

Steve

"He had more money, more power, and put a bullet in Kondratieff's head. "

LOL

true enough

did you read my answers to him?, I think I also had covered most of your comments, herds follow EWT, individual brains with the largest pockets have a different role.

p.s. And yes, kondratieff is something I always loved from the time I took my degree in economics, I have a soft spot for heretics with a good cynical view on human beings, remember thorstein veblen?