Counting Wiggles

The bulltards are trying to hold the 1060 mark and, bearish as I am, I can’t help but think that they might succeed short term at least – not liking that big divergence on the Zero Lite right now. Okay, I was completely swamped last night and thus unable to post an updated wave count – we can’t have that!

So, the tape of the past few days offers us two main scenarios right now:

• Soylent Orange – which is what the bears seem to be salivating over and the bulltards appear to sell into based on the recent distribution patterns. We are inside a Minuette (iii) of Minute {i} of Minor 1 of Intermediate 1 of Primary {3} of Cycle wave c. Which means we should not meander around here for long and proceed towards the 1045 mark for a little bounce, more drop, and then the expected pull back into Minute {ii}, a.k.a. as the last good chance for us bears to back up the truck.
• Soylent Blue – the bulltards’ favorite. We faked out the bears once more by touching an important trend line via Minute {b}, which constitutes today’s low at 1060.78. We are now pushing up to complete Minute {c} of Minor C of Intermediate (Y) of Primary {2} of Cycle wave c.

Yes, this is probably the toughest time to pick a direction – we have NO confirmation yet. The good news is that we shall know fairly soon. If 1091.75 is breached the odds swing back towards the blue scenario – until that happens we currently expect the downtrend to continue. However, if we start seeing strong candles to the upside in combination with increasing breadth and a strongly positive NYSE A/D ratio then that might be a precursor to more upside. Let’s also keep watching the Zero for participation and to gauge the strength of whatever wiggles we might get for important hints as to which way we might swing. For instance, what I do NOT want to see are bullish divergences as the one I warned my Zero subs last night. So stay on guard, my stainless steel rats – the party for the bulltards might not be over just yet. If we complete a perfect 5 here and we then bounce the odds for the beginning of bull hunting season would increase tremendously.

11:20am EDT: Interestingly we are seeing equities trying to make a run for it whilst the Dollar is running stops for breakfast:

2sweeties over at retracementlevels yesterday wrote me pointing out that the odds should not be confused with frequency, and that such inaccuracies will not be tolerated, especially coming from a Kraut:

Of course he is right – although the odds are loosely related to frequency they are not intrinsically the same. So, I should have said that the ‘frequency’ of reversals falls off after 76.35 – I stand corrected (as so often).

Either way – we are obviously close to that mark and it’s possible we’ll see a little zigzag to the downside, which incidentally might be exploited by our intrepid equity bulltards.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 27th, 2009 at 11:05 am and is filed under Currencies, Elliott Wave Theory, Intraday Update, Retracement Levels. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.