Breaking News - US Senators Near Deal On Extending Home Buyer Tax Credit

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=200910271532dowjonesdjonline000493&title=us-senators-near-deal-on-extending-home-buyer-tax-credit

Hey looking at the sell into the close it occured to me that the reason your program trading has underperformed lately has been because the robots have switched to the short-side.

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POMO's on friday, more upside potencial???

Always have upside potential, I don't think we will break to new highs but certainly swing highs are expected.

Berk -- if you get a minute, would you mind telling me your thoughts on that email I sent a ways back regarding time-scoring certain candles based on the # of larger-timeframe bars that a given candle 'closes'...

that whole hierarchy of candles/time pivots -- is that worth pursuing or was it just a nifty idea? I have some thoughts about application/coding but I'd rather refine it before putting it out to the public to gauge their take on such a strange, abstract method for viewing the markets...

"Strange, abstract method" caught my attention. You know I enjoy the obscure. Can it be represented visually?

Check your email

Yeah buddy, I will get to it tonight, I promise. I have an interesting thought about it...

Skål!

No problemo and no rush -- you can reply to a post if thats easier (or email, not worried bout privacy so much as not confusing everyone before I explain the system), whenever you get a chance.

You do amazing work here and deserve both credit and more time off (as does Mole!), so, hit me up when its convenient.

POMO's on friday, we should go up???

IMO this is the 3:30 time pivot getting gamed -- don't fall for it

for those who trust the PPT, FED and GS, go long for the EOD rally on the nasdaq, it's make or break for them

Will there be a short covering rally into close?

not really, but they'll try and make a doji on nasdaq... if they can (BTW this is iv) of 3

Just hit the 133 to the downside of the /es flag/channel (from the last hour or so) and reversed -- might've been the pickpocket play before the push higher.

Sorry to be so one-sided today, I just see this as rangebound with an upward bias until that huge trendline set is really cracked on the indices...

Q for the experts here ... Berk / anyone ??

I had a support on X @ 37.42 ... however the tgt for X is 30 based on the H&S ... we went below 37.42 .. and now coming back up under it to test the level ... which should hold as resistance a.k.a broken support is resistance.

Based on the sharp fall, this suport area may have also been one for retracement to happen before falling lower ... so how do we figure out till where it should retrace and from what point .... I plan to add to my position on the completion of the retrace ...

At this point, I have a breakeven stop, as I cannot day trade .... agree that these are definitely better than the index calls / puts :)

Use a fib to help determine the retrace distance. Beyond that, none of us can know exactly where an equity will stop. However, entering RIGHT at support/resistance (37.42) is a SOLID entry, as risk is very easily managed with a break of that support.

Skål!

Added to NIHD short on the pop to 29

BTW if anyone took my SHLD and KSS calls, you owe me a beer...and not just any beer, a Stella. Watch KSS, its at support at 58 now so take some profit and wait to see if it breaks.

I didn't but I'd go for better beers, maredsous, Chimay...

Now that I panhandle for beer, I drink shitty Steel Reserve. At least it has 8% plus alcohol content. Anything less than 7% is questionable. Anything less than 6% is unacceptable. I have the most difficult time getting buzzed on mainstream beers.

they both have AC from 8º to 10º depending on the version (one red has 8º the brown has 9º, for the other it's 9º and 10º)

Blue is my fav. Used to buy the corked bottles.

http://screencast.com/t/sWvfdxrQJO5h

So, you see, I have good taste for a young pup (I'm old enough to drink in Canada).

very well, I drink it all the time that I go to a bar and have a sirloin steak on bread because I missed dinner. But, assuming you are saying you're above 18 and below 21, at half my age you should have graduated on liqueurs and starting a solid degree on wines.

I'm trying to get some college credit for having life experiences beyond the piss-poor ambers served at keg parties. Does Chimay get me a credit or two? I can't afford the tuition to start my degree on wines.

sorry, sick as hell. Chimay WOULD give you credit IF you had at least WINE101 (plenty of good wines cost less than a chimay, and at the current average of 13,5º they give you all the buzz you need)

I used to buy Chimay Grande Reserve instead of mediocre wine. My favorite!

Never heard of those, where are they from?

some of my favorite belgian beers (trapistes, made by monks)

Are my comments posting? I feel like Mole/Berk... 40+ posts and silence... it's ok, I'm happy as long as people are listening -- they don't have to agree or take my advice (or look at my crazy charts), just trying to help the board when things appear rather clearly to me (instead of the usual 'shrug and guess' feeling I have...)

Watch, next week AMZN gaps above our extensions ;-)

Don't speak such blasphemy (no, seriously, I hope the trading gods didnt
hear you)

besides, gaps like that blast shorts for a few days before the shine comes
off 'em... reasonable that the gap at least fills. I figure its healthy to
have it come back down and give buyers a good entry (rather than gap and go,
this would be one hell of a time to do that... as AMZN...) so itll play nice
for bulls, even if not for bears (though that'll help us).

I have a Jan 110 put / short Jan 105 put that I've already covered and
re-sold the short leg of once to lock in profits, might do it again if the
Qs bounce significantly. Trying to capture a gap fill and will keep
churning the short puts until we get there.

Smoking a bowl of something called 'bright skunk'; can't imagine how that
was named. Very honored you've used the 133 in your own methods, that is
what I had hoped people would do - try new things!

So true about down channels in up trends. NQ likes to run on those
opposite-trending channels quite often, I've noticed.

And yes, 125-135 AMZN and you win -- hope it rolls over here, though, i will
say... not just because, but rather so that doesn't pop higher and add fuel
to the NQs for the next few days. If the NQ was so subdued on the downside
lately save for today, and AAPL and AMZN were flying... what will it be like
when they're coming down? ie, mayhem...

Your personal concerns about the NQs aside, I personally hope AMZN greets November expiration at either 135 or 95. If the former happens, I may have an opportunity for a could-it-get-any-better-than-this put vertical. If the latter happens, I've won the lottery. :-)

Here's a comment for you. It's actually in reply to the porn you posted.

We'll call your 133 extension of a long term upward channel the winner if AMZN has topped. On the other hand, if AMZN tops around 130, we'll call my 133 of 133 of a downward channel the winner. Deal?

http://screencast.com/t/Kz0c0RZC36

One thing I like about using a downward channel to follow upward price action is that it can be good at identifying potential gaps up (for instance, my previously posted AAPL porn). You should try it sometime.

Bemusedly watching you, PRS. Seems like you're amped up on caffeine or something. :) Can't wait to see what you're like when the market falls off the plate. :)

Traded yesterday 9am - 5pm charted until 8pm, slept until midnight, up all
night trading and here we are today, 6pm... now going out for burger + beer
with friends, then back here to sleep for real, I think.

Was nuts today. Sorry for the fervent posting -- lots of things to warn
people of and I was half-strength (from headache, lack of sleep, and trading
my best day in weeks from my bed instead of with my external 22" monitor +
2nd computer for separate TOS papermoney account for additional screen +
brokerage console).

Tomorrow will be easier but I also want it to be as successful; would rather
take hard fought gains every day though... so I cant complain. The worst is
realizing you could've done almost as well by just shorting some futures
early and buying some futures later. Ugh... the things we do for our
money...

Today was also particularly poignant because if we dealt a knockout blow to
bulls it'd be rather swift and bloody. Today was heated but didn't really
crap all that much -- and stayed right at key lines for a likely pop
tomorrow. Believe me, if it drops hard tomorrow and never looks back, I
will be the guy with 50% of the negative delta that I had two days ago,
cursing the market... not gonna happen, I think -- too much work to do near
1070-1100 still and now I can trade from a good position (instead of against
the ropes trying to short anything I could get a good entry on, now I have a
core short position and long hedge to accompany it back towards the upper
part of the range).

Take it easy anotherone

Im with u PRS!

Haha, youve been with me since like, 530 am this morning...

PRS - I definitely enjoy your commentary. I take it in along with Berk/Mole and others to arrive at my intra-day decisions. . . So +1 from me.

Thanks buddy, happy to help -- just another voice in the crowd (hopefully one of the educated voices' crowd members)

Hey gang. Taking a break from testing my new system to say hello. Despite little in the way of movement there has been a lot of participation today judging by the internals and it looks like all rips are being sold. BUT I am watching that longer term trendline and all potential supports....thanks Berk for the charts. +1 and of course Mole for his earlier chart. +1.

POMO's on friday, so more deep buying???

Whoa, did anyone mention SPX stopped at the 50% retrace of 1101 to 1020? Strong further evidence for a bounce inbound.

just reading Roubini's latest, here's his take on the dollar carry trade;
Roubini: I could make a similar argument for other commodity prices. In my view, rising commodity prices are not justified by the fundamentals.

There’s a huge bubble, because we have zero rates in the U.S., zero rates around the world and a huge carry trade. Everyone is borrowing at zero interest rates in dollars and getting a capital gain because the dollar is weakening, so they are borrowing at negative rates. And then they invest in risky assets: commodities, equities, credit. We’re creating a bigger bubble than before.
It’s going to go crashing down, in an ugly way. That’s the basics of the argument.

He's a smart man...

Skål!

Little bull channel -- if it breaks down watch 1058-1060, if we follow it up into close looking for 1066-1070 (1066 monthly /es vwap)

Just some Bear Porn -- 133 version -- AMZN:

http://screencast.com/t/bmfhSmpdot

Berk -

Joining you on the CE puts here. Small position, just for the sport of it.

I'm already up in mine (barely), but I really like the odds.

Skål!

Great call on X Berk ... q for you ..

I had a support on X @ 37.42 ... however the tgt for X is 30 based on the H&S ... we went below 37.42 .. and now coming back up under it to test the level ... which should hold as resistance a.k.a broken support is resistance.

Based on the sharp fall, this suport area may have also been one for retracement to happen before falling lower ... so how do we figure out till where it should retrace and from what point .... I plan to add to my position on the completion of the retrace ... will appreciate your advice.

At this point, I have a breakeven stop, as I cannot day trade ....

I did not spend much time looking at it. But it does seem the risk/reward on that one is worth a quick swing at it. Trading near 52-week high on sky-high volume. Bound to be some profit taking at least, which could easily mobilize a couple of points drop.. maybe more.

We shall see!

IMO there's a good chance we get one last bear squeeze from the final POMO.

Then we drop. Barring further intervention, of course (what that could be I have no idea, maybe an emergency ban on shorting?).

Regardless, I'm waiting for confirmation, or the last POMO squeeze. I see about 100 SP points below, if I miss 20 or so, no big deal.

On a mechanical note, please changes those PNGs! THey don't display at all in FIrefox, an nobarely in IE. Also, they seem to be screwing with the comment system.

Yes... I agree. One last POMO, the fed meeting on the 3rd/4th. Sounds like a beautiful conjunction with some other turning points...

Skål!

Agree, although I wonder what real importance the Fed meeting will
have. They won't announce a rate hike, as unemployment is still rising
and the 'recovery' is 'fragile'... So unless they come up with some new
plan to throw additional hot money at the markets...

Has the drop been steep? We're at 9900. I personally didn't think the dow would even see 10k this year and now we're OK with 9900 being the result of a steep drop..? If I were bullish, which I'm not, I would see that 2% drop as a buying opportunity.

Good points made here yesterday about breaks of the 20 EMA on S&P leading to big rallies;
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/10/real-breakdown-or-trap-of-bears-do-we.html

EUR/USD hourly chart has a HUGE positive divergence from yesterday low to today low, that and the possible ABC finished make doubt of this down move.

Im more skeptic today than i was yesterday. And yes im a bear.

Same here. DAX continues to make higher lows - banks bouncing after hours.

FSLR down nice today.....they have earnings yet?

no the 28

Maybe some Vicks in each nostril would work

C'mon VIX.....bust that double top

Stainless Steel Hamster,

I thought maybe you had stopped talking to me, but it was technology that went silent; damn DISQUS hasn't been forwarding replies to me today. Bloggers and commenters need a programmer who knows/can learn the functional language of Erlang to write a DISQUS clone. There is already a Twitter clone written in Erlang.

Anyway, do you believe the LOD is still coming?

While you've been wave counting the intraday action (thank you), I've been monitoring the nasdaq monthly candles. October opened red, turned green, moved above my very important magenta moving average (the one that appears to have held the September candle from moving higher), and made a new 2009 high. Since then, October has moved below my very important magenta moving average (which I think may hold). Also, the candle is now red again, and red is my favorite color.

http://screencast.com/t/8pDVgNzakYk2

I THINK LOD is still ahead (incomplete count) but remember they often pump 5's of C to reverse market (see my last post on previous thread)

As for nasdaq, your purple line is in line with the fact that this is indeed a w4 an therefore should have been contained (and was in real prices) by the 2150 (remember my rants that Elliott himself would rise from the grave to short nasdaq at 2150?)

SO that's all I can tell you, I'm still deeply in the red so this is limited fun for me (and that's a kind of red I don't like)

As for technology.. bahhh check the blog itself ;-)

best regards

You're getting a bit of GS action here rodent... :-P

Skål!

1 4 violation on s&p, not so on nasdaq...
prety slopy work

Check it against the EW Bible:

http://www.screencast.com/users/prsguitarszach/folders/Jing/media/a27faca2-875a-4802-9d2c-01143d45bec4

my son, some heretic thoughts are being sent to you by the devil (either that or drop the LSD, it's taking it's toll)

That's still good for a laugh, and I still think the ghost count is going to happen.

and if PPT is there let them know that 2131 must be broken on nasdaq if it's to work (LOL, I love the alt count if they do that)

seen it, inconclusive so far

Grabbed some RIMM putz earlier.....looking for the big gap fill on that baby

I dunno. RIMM 90-min stochastics is oversold, hence waiting for a rally to overbought conditions would be the best time to buy puts. At least IMHO.

Great charts Berk

Thought I would throw this up to see if it holds.

http://screencast.com/t/b4kzBxaw

nice bergs! Fits very well (sadly I'd love more bear porn; alas, I trade what I get...) with what I'm seeing too... currency, internals, VIX, technicals, etc, all say bounce (and that damn fractal!)

That is almost exactly what I am looking at. Good to know we are on the same page...

Skål!

Cool

Actually. I hope it is in play.

I forgot I hadn't change the lower trend line of the black count properly.

Here is the corrected copy.

http://screencast.com/t/oLJBDVsWz4G

Dear Baby Jesus,

Please give me a Daily candle on Amazon that will let me short the hell out of it in good conscious.

Amen

I agree, but be really careful. All-time highs and 5.7% short float. That is enough to keep it running for a couple of days...

Skål!

Wait for it.....Wait for it.......

It is going to be beautiful when the time comes, that time isn't now though.

Right... Trust me, you don't want to be short a stock at ATH with a big short float... ASKING for trouble...

Skål!

Perhaps a big contribution to Benny Hinn ministries would help.....he has a big jet to feed

And a look @ VIX (TL overhead might slow/stop us from dropping for a few)

http://screencast.com/t/fAEZmew3LX

Berk,
Those Gann charts aren't too bad. Unfortunately they are off enough to get you in trouble on the shorter term. I cant post mine as they are drawn on large
graph paper that is difficult to get to the internet. I may on the other hand give a seminar next year to teach the real method.

Yeah, hand drawing Gann charts on really large graph paper is the way to go. I used to do that on daily charts a few years ago and it is time consuming. I did feel that Gann was much more accurate than EW in predicting highs, lows, and turning points. It was uncanny sometimes in nailing the top of a market to the very day, weeks in advance. Wish I had one now to see what it says about this market.

I may try to do a current one this weekend
on another chart program. if so I 'll post it next week

Admittedly, I don't have as firm a grasp on Gann as I do other TA. But they seem to be fitting the bill so far...

Skål!

HOLY SHIT DJT UPDATE/ALERT

Just retested previous DJT channel -- great evidence adding to bounce at least immediately, if that wasn't already clear...

http://screencast.com/t/wBo2ZrlR

Also, NQs appear to have made a trendline stick... http://screencast.com/t/NjkPhJMLUWIp

BERk.........DTG, NIHD, and FWLT.......sweet calls and took them......thanks

I bet your account is happy with you today...

Skål!

sold the UUP Dec 23 calls I picked up Friday for a quick 50% gain. I'll look to pick them up if UUP pulls back some. Nice call on X Berk.

bulls ship is sinking, now it is time to short left and right.

This bear is cautious, too.

Great post, Mole.

Berk's post. But yes, great charting.