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Possible H&S on USO. Break and hold of 40...
http://screencast.com/t/HdTPsTKES

Also I think we are aiming for the 50 day MA which sits at 1050.57

Not liking the downside setup in the Russell 2000 today nearly as much as the past few! Possibly a floor is in at 581. Refused to reload on the IWM 59 puts in that news-driven chop-fest trade.

Off now to ponder buy / hold / sell on oil. Happy trading, as they say... ;)

Volume on SPY picking up here folks. HHHHUUUUMMMM!

wonder if they massaged the housing numbers to put pressure on politicos to pass an extension of the new home buyer credit? Zandi saying the number looks suspicious and likely to be revised up...

Anything is possible because of Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales and Building Permits, only Building Permits is really trackable (and accurate).

The other 2 have a standard deviation of like +/-17%. So with next month's revision maybe we find out that the home sales actually went up!

Be that as it may: it sure made for a great stops run in the Chicago futs pits it would seem.

Despite the early recovery from the open, the market continues to "feel" weak, and susceptible to a plunge at any time IMO. All the big candles on my 1 min charts are red ones, the upticks being small grinding gains that are wiped out quickly.

BTW Goldman just revised downward their GDP projection from 3% to 2.7%. Remember the last time they revised their figures the day before an important release?????

10:01 AM Sept. New Home Sales: -3.6% to 402K vs. consensus of 440K and 429K in Aug. Months' supply 7.5 vs. 7.3 in Aug. Median price $204,800.

So that's what happened. SPY hourly has once again broken through the bottom of it's channel.

Remember that mortgage reset chart?:

“Rising unemployment and a new variety of mortgage resets continued to gradually shift the nation’s foreclosure epicenters in the third quarter away from the hot spots of the last two years and toward some metro areas that had avoided the brunt of the first foreclosure wave,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “While toxic subprime mortgages drove much of that first wave of foreclosures, high unemployment and exotic Alt-A Option ARMs are spreading the foreclosure flood to more metro areas in 2009.”

http://www.realtytrac.com/contentmanagement/pre...

ladies and rats

watch the nasdaq, still one leg down missing IMO

and it might even be a 20 point leg (though the jury is out on the exact magnitude) I HATE GAP DOWNS, have to guess what's happened

I'm thinking the 10:30 report is going to give us a reverse...

DXY gonna get squeeze....EUR seem to be in a 3rd wave up

So that means USD should fall .... I see a H&S on UUP - neckline @ 22.59 - which is also strong support ....

EUR popping off the channel, 2nd try after this morning head fake...

I see the UUP created a H&S - now lets see if it can break ...

1708 is where I closed all of my NQs

Got filled at 1709.50. Sucks

Gap looks to be filling this morning, a short term strategy as outlined yesterday and near term options from there

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/10/near-te...

The writing appears to be on the wall. DOWN.

1) Need a motivation to continue printing money.
2) Need people to start buying those hot Treasury cakes

The only short term factor holding this PIG up is end of quarter display. Next week will start the Bear party if it doesnt begin in earnest this week.

Talking about fractals.
Do you remember mistery black swan formation in May 2008?
We can see this very bearish formation right now on weekly SP500
http://www.screencast.com/users/SkiingBear/fold...
Bulls should be really afraid ;-)

Classic

thanks, man. coffee came out of my nose.

I am a curious George, I really want to know - what the heck was that drop about?
(not that I care, but 1690 /NQ target was NOT supposed to be hit today and I am getting nervous now)

iii of 5 , now iv of 5

EDIT (maybe [iv] of iii) of 5

Bear news for the morning, then off to bed (did my work again overnight; hardly slept... might be around for the afternoon)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/10/23/russ...

David, made me think of you

It made you think of me? I love you too.

BTW - Administrator's last name "Potapov" is a nick name for bear - faith is not without irony.
...and - that is an old new

Doesn't look good for bulls today.

Morning gang, chop chop and melt higher today (grrrrrrrrr)

Anna, what are you basing your up day premonition on? Futures down, DX up, EUR/USD down. What do you know/see, you silly goose?

Hi Anna! Big non-event with this Durable Goods report.

And another snore likely coming with New Home Sales. We already got a hint on that one from Existing Home Sales last Friday.

The EIA petroleum inventory report at 10:30 should spice things up tho. :)

Hi Mac, yea it is I think we melt higher today and most of tomorrow. BtW come visit the blog once in a while :)

morning, just added your blog to my reader... looks good.

fyi for some reason in my google reader it does not have a "title" for your blog on the sidebar.
FWIW.

Good luck today.

EDC thank you and I will pass this on to my webmaster, :))

G/L to you too as always

Oh is it up already? I'll be sure to check that out. :)

DX definitely broke out of its stealthy little 2-week trading range in the thin overnight trade. Be interesting to see if it holds it now during the day or if it fails.

:)

I think if the $DXY can keep it up we have a chance on the other hand......

oh, I can keep it up alright...

In light of the rising frequency of human/grizzly bear conflicts, the Alaska Department of Fishing and Gaming is advising hikers, hunters, and fishermen to take extra precautions and keep alert of bears while in the field. The department has posted the following notice:

We advise that outdoorsmen wear noisy little bells on their clothing so as not to startle any bears.
We also advise outdoorsmen to carry pepper spray with them in case of an encounter with a bear.
It is also a good idea to watch out for fresh signs of bear activity.
Outdoors men should recognize the difference between black bear and grizzly bear feces. Black bear feces is smaller and contains lots of berries and squirrel fur. Grizzly bear feces has little bells in it and smells like pepper

LOL. Just went for some bear activity myself. Not as far as the woods, mind.

Durable Goods Orders up 1%, in line with predictions; ex-transportation up 0.9% exceeding expectations. My knee jerk is to sell it but I really need to see the fine print on this one.

Your tax dollars at work:
"Sorry, the page you requested has either been moved or is no longer available on this server."

Hey Mole - at least it's clear now that you're not lying about Geronimo results. There's always a bright side.

"Not lying NOW"????
are you implying he was lying before?
How dare you

not-btw, still think yesterday EOD LOD would be B low?

well, 5 extended and hit 1690 target precisely, so we are in abc now
http://screencast.com/t/wDIeusonwvQ

don't close your count because of a target. I see this still as iv (or even [iv] of iii) of 5

the way I see it - with futures - there are two alternate/complementing counts (they have different targets/structure etc) - 24 hours AND market hours only. 1690 was 24h tgt, market only wave did not budge a bit and it is most likely 4 now
http://screencast.com/t/ehOQBZDUxMZ

new LOD doesn't look like a 4

if we wait it will come

david, he wrote that it was CLEAR now (if and for anybody any doubt had existed)

Don't jump and re-read

I know I know
Just pulling "bobthehorse"s chains :)

too sick to be sure, and others might feel troubled by your "moment"

that and another comment were dully considered by this hamster and found ok

Pre-Market warm up

If you look at the TNX (index representing 10 times the 10yr bond yield), one notices that from open to close, it followed a straight line down, with the only objection coming around 1PM. This was squelched.
Given how the SPX behaved yesterday, I would suggest that liquidity was being applied to get the yield down in order to provide a decent auction for the 2year. In other words, at the margin the liquidity is the financial system is so over-extended that it is becoming difficult for dramatic moves in multiple asset classes.
From Reuters, here is today’s schedule:
[Issuance]
* 10:30 Fed agency coupon purchase (Nov 15, 2011 to Oct 18, 2013)
* 11:30 Treasury auctions $25 bln 300-day Cash Management Bills
* 13:00 Treasury auctions $41 bln 5-year notes
Last of the POMO at 10:30 perhaps – restoring some liquidity from yesterday’s auction. The amounts being issued today are hefty. It would surprise me if the POMO leads to a big pop. Also remember that there is a TAF maturity coming up next week – Thursday if I remember correctly. Watch the auctions and more specifically, what it does to yields. This is the first time that I’ve noticed that the games of pushing yield up before a major auction to get a cheaper price, has NOT been working for the “hedge funds”.
Equity
Asia was red., by a good 1.5 – 2%. China was slightly green, though. I don’t know what that means, except that perhaps leverage still rules in that country.
Europe is red at about 1.5%. Only Telecomm and Utilities are in the green for the DAX, which has been headed down since the open, and in spite of a minor bounce is still around 5540ish.

FX
USD /DXY is up above the mythical 76.30; CAD, EUR, and GBP are weaker. JPY is stronger. Looks like the so-called “run from risk” trade according to the MSM.
I just want to hi-light that, yesterday, the EUR was the currency that was weakest against the USD. My opinion is that the ECB has had enough of China games and is fighting back – with words behind the scene as well. Two days ago (Monday) a lot of traders – including myself – were hung out to dry when we expected the Asian CBs to step in on the EURO and keep it near the long term trend line. No such luck. This is unprecedented as the Asian CBs had stepped up to plate at least SIX times before.
What does this mean? The games are shifting and the DXY /.SPX correlation may not be a reliable tell on its own, anymore.
EUR pivots:
R2: 1.4990 – The holy grail for bulls as a breach implies testing up around 1.51;
R1: 1.4897 – Where the Asian CBs used to come in strong.
Neutral: 1.4834 – used to be support, now resistance, I would guess. EUR tested this before and after Europe opened at 3 AM.
S1: 1.4741
S2: 1.4677
GOLDS is down and so are the oil futures – just a bit, but enough to show that the USD is having flow through effects. A big waterfall in equities could happen if stops are run on gold and oil and margin calls kick in. Not very likely in the short term, IMHO. It’s a coin toss as to which asset class will cause the dominoes to start falling via margin calls against severely leveraged positions.
NEWS
Apparently, the YEN carry trade is starting to climb back out of the pit. The output gap in Japan suggests further economic weakness, and the betting is that the YEN will weaken as well. Low interest rates, a currency weakening = carry trade. Look for the YEN to go into EUR and China, as opposed to USD-denominated equities. I would expect the USD to benefit from the carry trade going into commodities, as well. But, I think that ship has sailed and the Chinese ag co-ops have way too much useless metal stockpiled in warehouses that should hold food.
Volatility on Treasuries is at its lowest for the last two years. The interpretation is that the market believes that the FED will keep its promise of low rates for the foreseeable future. How does this jive with the USD strength? It doesn’t. However Fischer’s interest rate parity suggests that the currency with the lower interest rates will strengthen over time (based on forward yield curve and non-arbitrage). Reality says that the currency with the higher rates will attract more investment, though – which pushes the currency up in the short term, but it reverts over the longer term (life of any tbills bought).
Data
7:00 Mortgage applications: -12.3% vs -13.7% prior.
8:30 Durable goods: 1% expected vs -2.6% prior revised; This can be a market move if it is NOT related to temporary money-print programs such as cash for clunkers.
10AM: New home sales. 440K exp. Vs 429K prior. Now this would be a surprise if it holds true, IMHO.

SPX
I don’t want to belabour the point, except to say that my focus for support is at the long term trend line around 1056 (but drawn by hand….) and the TD resistance point at 1050 – which is the low from October 7, 2009 and marked the start of the most recent SELL setup. TD Pressure has not yet gone below the oversold line. It actually bounced off of it a bit yesterday in spite of the market moving down. Looks like a good omen for the Bears.
ES pivots: Note that ES is at several points discount to SPX value.
R2: 1075
R1: 1068
Neutral: 1062.50 – was resistance all night, including the Europe open.
S1: 1055 – Acting as resistance right now. If we get decisively above, look for range trading all day except for into the close.
S2: 1050 – Waiting for a nice rare steak.

Summary:
Watch the Tbill auctions and how interest rates behave during and after. If rates are higher than expected, it will be negative for equities. If rates decline after the auction, it is likely more bullish for equities.
I don’t expect an SPX sell off today – but a tidy decline to take us down to ULTRAVIOLET (the long term lower violet trend line that began at 666). If this happens, I would expect a relief rally tomorrow or Friday.

Wish I could post the charts......

Thanks as ever. My personal view - these fkrs want to get some originality - there is no surer sign that this is wave 2 to my mind than zombies like zero-down mortgages and the yen carry trade allegedly staggering out of the graveyard...

I don't know about waves (can't see the ocean for all of them), but I do expect EUR to test 1.4741 at some point in the next 12 - 24 hours or so - sooner than later. I also expect SPX to be in the red today.

But longer term, the amount of MBS purchase program money available, and the long term trend line from the SPX peak in 2007, suggests the next leg up will be to somewhere between 1105 and 1115. By coincidence, the daily SPX upper bollinger is amost touching that long term upper trend line (which I call BIG WHITE). If there is some irrational exhuberance, then we could get to the 50% pivot (1557 - 666) at around 1121 (but this would require a sea change).

My paranoid side says that the FED may drain liquidity in order to get Congress of its back and get access to more money - probably for QE. If this happens, then I think the USD is going to be pushed underwater again. I hope the US economy can hold its collective breath for another 6 months, in that case. This would almost clinch the 1121 target, in my mind.

Cheers..




________________________________

The dxy is as close to its declining 50 day ema of 76.79 as its been for over a month now. Would love to see it get up there, but based on the pattern for the last 6 months, the probability is for it to tank again. It really is all about the dollar, we need to see it climb here and everything else will fall into place.

Charts of Euro/USD that I was looking at last night:

4h: http://www.screencast.com/t/lVsPNclRCwsc
1h: http://www.screencast.com/t/jrz2lVRJc

The breach of 1.4966 could, now in hindsight, be a false breakout. That level was the high from late 2007/early 2008, before shooting up to ~1.57 (as seen on this older chart, daily: http://www.screencast.com/t/IcpxV2Un). On the 1h chart you can see how we traded against 1.4966 over last week. We have now broken out of the steep downward wedge, and are sitting in the highlighted area. To me this is the current decision point. If we break below, the long term trend line is broken (seen on the 1h and 4h charts) and we are under important horizontal levels of support. Next logical stop would be 1.45-1.455, but ~1.46 could prove to be a wildcard as it constitutes a retest of the wedge breakout seen on the older daily chart above.

If we break back above ~1.482 (or maybe 1.485 to be generous) we are in no-mans land, and the current up-trend could very well go on for a while longer. I consider the highlighted area fuzzy though, because many trendlines and support levels are converging here.

Interesting how (semi-)round numbers like 1.50 become crucial psychological lines in the sand. There is no more resistance above us (apart from the top - Lord preserve us lol). This is why it is going to really struggle to hold/break this level - I would poysonally make it odds-on that the € top is in.

Feeling a whole more confidently bearish today for some reason.

yeah, a run towards the previous top would be scary.

When taking a step back I feel that we are in a very difficult area on the euro/USD. Breaking (and staying) below 1.47 is a good bearish start, but there are many potential horizontal support levels below + the wedge breakout I mentioned above, and only a break under 1.44 would make me really confident in a longer term downtrend. And that is quite far away.

Yep, you are right that we can't count the chickies until that line goes. When you put that wedge in, I can see a great completed EW count that just jumps out of the page though.

We have a nice H&S on AUD as well (the carry trade destination) and JPY turned up a few weeks ago (may have made an intermediate top for now tho).

Be cautious, yes, but things are looking promising for $bulls.

Morning, all. Just for fun, this one - SPX/WTIC this time, shame we can't go back further on StockCharts for free...

http://screencast.com/t/NYbPihDlD

Interesting how market fall far faster than they go up. Dax is currently printing levels that were first seen in late october, thats 2 months of gains wiped out.

That`s why i like bear markets...

Morning from sunny Ireland folks. I continue to believe that if the market hasn't already begun its decline, that its close. I still feel, that even though its hotly anticipated and probably already leaked to a select few counterparties, that the US GDP release could be the catalyst for a huge wave of selling.

There is so much hope baked into the stock prices of so many companies right now. The TTM P/e of the S&P is 140+. People are talking in terms of "oh but you can't apply traditional valuation metrics...>" etc etc, nonsense that was last heard to justify petfood.com's insane valuation. I think David Rosenberg was talking about 5 quarters of compound 5%+ GDP growth is baked into the S&P and that just isn't going to happen. A tremendous number is EXPECTED. We have had the Fed monetize $2tn in MBS and US Treasuries pumping the market. We have had first time buyers tax credits, cash for clunkers and a host of other pork and largesse. A 30% increase in government spending.

Everyone is waiting expectantly with their "Recession is officially over" hats ready, like the DOW 10k hats.

So unless the number is truly impressive, if it merely is a technical tickover into expansion like 0.3% or something, and not at least 2-3% annualised, I think it could lead to a rush for the exits.

I know I'm posting this in the wrong place, since EWT doesn't believe that news moves markets, but I can really envisage either an instant selloff or else a blowoff top followed by a major fade like that following the FOMC announcement on the 23rd September.

I think sentiment is also primed for disappointment. Bulls and bears are unanimous that the market still has to go higher before it falls. The market will do its utmost to frustrate the maximum number of people and right now I can't think of anything that would be more frustrating to bulls, and especially bears who have shorted this thing right to the top only to give up expecting higher, than a major fall right now.

Number will be crap unless we have finally moved to Soviet tractor production statistical methods. Here's a prediction though (based on Mole's bear mkt buy-bad-news-sell-good philosophy) - we dump before the release, number is mind-numbingly awful, loads of bears go short and then we rally strongly in w2 to a lower high.

Minded to agree but right here and now, think the squeeze risk is too great. A lot of people, me included, have been waiting for this decline. I would not want to be short over the durable goods number. If it is even half decent, market could squeeze 2%

You could be right but I would be surprised if this could do anything bar give a short term pop to the upside. Does durable goods include autos? Can a post CFC hangover cause a downside surprise?

Durable Goods is non-autos but includes aircraft so the ex-transports is normally more important. I've studied this a lot and it is essentially unforecastable. So the risk of a upside surprise is high, particularly given where the market is and the fact that last month was very poor. Often you can get slippage from one month to the next as these are bulky orders so chances of a big number this month are reasonable. As I said, it's just a random guess on this data series but on an equity risk-reward basis, I would be long over it.

Carrot, I'm afraid this chart sums it up best:

http://www.screencast.com/t/CaaV8vMe

Edit to add: I hope this isn't the case either but the 30% deflation here in Germany YoY certainly points to that direction.

Great comment, btw, +1.

nice chart...that will be when the master planners give up and will be the first to head for the exits!

I'm not sure if I want that to be true. I have a bunch of long term long positions, (don't ask, I'm locked up and can't sell), that I've currently got pretty much perfectly hedged (now have a slightly negative delta) but was waiting for a final pop myself before going heavily short.

Having said that, I convinced myself some time ago that it was better to wait for confirmation of a trend change before going all-in, and thats probably still wise advice. If your chart is correct and I go heavily short once we break below 9,400 Dow, then I still have 4-6000 points to look forward to :)

ABC down right now, A=C i think

Another alert:

we hit the 20 hourly sma on /ES and curled right down. That is technically some poop, basic as it may be, that indicates this may have another push lower in it (and still remain divergent for a WICKED 10am EST rally, that'd be my guess). Just keep your heads up and eyes on the ball... don't need no casualties tomorrow/today...

'night rats (and as usual, i'll still be online for an hour so if you have questions/are looking for my observations, who knows... probably still be up... sigh)

DAX opened with a neat selling wave today. It's currently trading below today's pivot of 5.635 but still holding the 5.600 area. Banks haven't made any new lows either. The bulls have a chance as long as things stay that way.

Once we lose that area we are looking at a quick drop to 5450.

yes..possibly as low as 5400 5390...which is the rising weekly trendline of rally from March lows..
http://www.screencast.com/t/hIkfAfbZCGS

if when we get BELOW that line..all hell breaks loose!

DAX lost the 5.600 area. Techs are getting hammered. Commerzbank new lows. The only ones catching a bid right now are some med companies and utilities.

And US futures tanking as well.

If you put up /YM on 4 hours you'll see a spike to 9850 when the pre-hour market here opened. It often pays to fade those "breakouts," regardless of their direction. Yes, sometimes it keeps on going but that's what stops are for.

The movement between 9-9.30 am CET (when options markets open) can also make a nice fade.

Futures are diving at 4am for a change. . . Let's hope it breaks that 75.3 DXY resistance point.

Hoping for a real break to the upside in equities? or did you mean 76.3?

sorry 76.3. . . hoping for a real drop to 1045 or below for equities. . .

I was gonna say, 75.3 = SPX 1090ish. So, f*** that.

I know a lot of people banking on a bounce -- and it makes sense -- but remember we'll do the most obvious thing in the least obvious way (ie, we end the day near 1070 but with an early AM scare to the downside). The most evil would be a gap down and sell to 1045 /es or something stupid -- then reverse it HARD and ride it back towards 1070. My god, nobody would want to trade that goddamn market ever again... come to think of it, it feels like that anyway somedays...

I've spent all night (got up Mon. morning, traded all day, slept 8-12 pm, traded all last night, today, and tonight, about to get 5 hrs before tomorrow's session) establishing a good long position for tomorrow and the GDP.

After 10 trades, I'm in one lot /es long, at same cash level, with synthetic 4 handles banked (exited /es long at 1062.75 early in the evening and have added and scalped out repeatedly until just now where I've got my one lot entry + cash level @ same as when I began) without trading short at all.

Tomorrow can come in whichever direction (except straight down, please) and i'll handle it. Was scary on the way in but now that I've got a good position and a few handles in the bank (synthetically, w/e, my puts benefit from the 4pts drop, or, my /es can re-gain that ground from 1059ish to 1063 again to hedge against the puts).

All in all, six hours of work for not that much dough (but a good position to be in for tomorrow and god knows what on Thursday). Peace of mind pays the best salary though -- sleep. G'night

Hey PRS, I'm positioned exactly opposite right now (nothing personal). Caught the same handles as you but on downside and not on the upside. I'm about half committed on short /es going into tomorrow.

I actually think GDP will beat consensus, but I still think the market will sell. I think its an intermediate term correction until it isn't.. Trying to be disciplines to not fight the tape. It's a trend until it isn't, right ?

WTF are all you bears waiting for? We have just begun the Great Decline of 2009 and nobody here is willing to short this bastard pig of a market? Talking instead about fractal repeating patterns? Anticipating a shakeout rally? Man, this is pathetic. GET YOUR ARSES SHORT NOW.

If you want to talk about fractals, try this fractal on for size: the rollover crash of October 1987.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14811.htm

You know how I know this time the crash is for real? Because Evil Speculator et al is deathly afraid to short this one. All the bears got burned enough times called a top, they have nothing left to short with or are too gun shy. Somebody said it would go down that way a few months back. Truly sad. But that's the way TPTB would like it to play out.

Throw all the Elliot Wave analysis out the window. It's not helping anybody here make any money. Only looks good in hindsight. Learn it thoroughly, see how it completely fails looking forward, then throw it out the window. It's no accident that Bloomberg had Prechter on in early August calling an end to the rally.

Lots of things are driving this market down. It seems that Galleon is going to blow huge. Already they've wrapped up AMD's CEO into the scandal. How many more will be implicated before it's over? It sounds like the whole hedge fund industry is based on insider trading from tech company executives tip-offs. Banks are catching a whole bunch of coordinated hell too. Where did those Chicago protesters come from all of a sudden? They'll start talking reform now, and that tends to cause markets to collapse damn fast so that people start forgetting about reform.

Once the Sequel to the Stimulus is announced, be prepared to go long. Around Thanksgiving.

Easy dude. I understand the excitement but you're preaching to the choir here. Some of us here have been calling -and trading- The Top(tm) since last Monday.

Sure, I and many others expected a decent bounce yesterday and it didn't happen. So? That's what dry powder's for. :)

(Ouch, sorry about the grammar, my English is self-taught.)

What do you mean "easy dude?" You presume I'm a guy? Preaching to the choir? Did you read the front page? ES IS GOING TO MISS THIS DROP. That is pathetic for a so-called bear blog.

I need to bang the table so people understand. Stop waiting for a bounce. SHORT THIS MUTHA NOW. Cover at OPEX.

I'm sorry, no offense meant. I totally get what you're saying but I also understand why people aren't making a move. Can't trade for them though, can only trade for myself.

No offense taken. Just gotta watch those gender stereotypes out here. You never know who, or what's on the other side of the keyboard. It's rough out here pimping these Interwebz.

Let's see where things are in a few weeks. Obviously we agree on the near-term outlook. Keep your eye on the ball, stay focused on the goal posts, keep it in the strike zone, and good luck.

The guy has a great point, though. We need to beware that the market is, naturally, our own worst enemy (ie, it's us - our weaknesses - that are the real enemy).

Your english is very good for being self-taught (was student head of ESL tutoring department at my university; be proud of yourself, it comes off as quite natural!). Bravo and good trading to you, jane...

The market is our worst enemy, yes. That's a good attitude for us peasants to have. Let's all blame ourselves for losing money in a rigged game.

But the worstest (is that a werd?) enemies are the hedge funds, investment banks, and government insiders which are reading this very blog and trading against everybody here, taking your money on every trade.

My only theory is that Mole et al are pretending to fail, i.e. they're actually short to the hilt and have been posting mostly bullshit to throw off the enemy.

Thank you for the kind words PRS. :) Yes, he does have a point. I've caught myself in a state of disbelief several times since the drop has started, as you know that can be very dangerous in trading. Taking small breaks and especially long walks seems to help.

Good luck to you too!

If the dip-buying zombies are in control, then the bounce comes next. If the masterminds are in control and they still want a bull market, then they could choose to break the trend line to draw in all the bears that are on the side lines now. They need a 2,000 point $INDU rally soon to pull the markets up into "safe" and "perpetual" bull market territory. What's the best way to achieve that? Get the market into short-term oversold territory.

Yea, earnings suck big time (I wonder how ETFC is still not alive), but the bulls might stage another bounce here. For daytraders, it could be quite risky if you are not nimble at this point.

Haven't posted a Boatload O' Charts in a while, be advised that my posting of a Boatload could be a contra-indicator of bearishness in market action. Watch out....Humoungous Bank and Broker and the great bald evil one still got game, and printing presses. But from what I can tell, I think they pretty much shot all the current bullets currently authorized to them. Some 1.5B of your tax money to "pimp da market" is pretty much used up....but because after all, market moves up prove economic success (j/k).

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/its-bee...

What is with the open interest in SOX for december 175 puts??? Anyone got any ideas???

That AMZN sure is one tough SOB. Up again in AH.

may be that is Tim covering

lol

I should... saw that I answered you?

get some rest, lots of vitamin C, lemon, may be light antibiotics - this is one nasty flu, cannot get rid of it for 3 weeks now + my smoking=non stop coughing
falling asleep now, this might make your life (as understanding of basics of d-wave) easier
http://screencast.com/t/ojyz9C1H1lV

Transports got hammered again, down 1.8%, the NASDAQ was down 1.2%, and the Dow was flat? What money/buying power is left to put into stocks is going into the "safe plays" and out of the riskier growth names http://bit.ly/4D9PJ3

Here's a thought: If you want to keep the Cramericans and Mr. & Mrs. 401K "in the game" as long as possible to leave them as the last bagholder, what better way to do it than to keep the Dow propped up while everything else gets sold off?

bingo

Anna, are you out on a hot dinner date? You have called the gyrations extremely well and I'm curious if you sense a blowback rally in the making here.

Berk and Mole, your charts convinced me we get a reaction rally tomorrow so I blew off my short options and bought into BGU calls at the close. A typical pattern in this run is two down days and then bang, a reaction rally.

Yes I am a Bear but we have to trade the charts and it looks like those expecting one more push up might be right. I am 2/3 cash. 1/3 long in BGU calls. Thank you to everyone who posted here. We all have to follow our own system and mine is saying a reaction /reversal is highly likely for a couple days.

looks like she is in her very own pink palace http://hotoptionbabe.com/

Market could use a pullback. If that happens, watch for SPY 108.50, ES 1080 area as possible entry into another short setup. Thursday's GDP number will be looming large tomorrow, and we could see a mostly slow day if there is no action in the morning
http://tinyurl.com/ylyte9p

tucking in, coming down with a cold... or something

do hamsters get swine flu?

I hope you do have H1N1 so that you can get it over. Most of us are going to catch it sooner or later. May as well be sooner, right?

My recommendations: Drink apple cider vinegar diluted with water, spice your chicken noodle soup with copious amounts of cayenne pepper and mix spirulina into it, eat plain yogurt with spirulina mixed into that too, suck lemons, and sleep as much as you can (unlike me).

hope they don't - I can tell you - this is nothing good, feels like shit, taste like shit...wait that what it is!

so sick I forgot the link... do say something

http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-35E6_4AE7BC01.html

feeling so shity I couldn't sleep

bullish we do 1.4 by Xmas
slightly bearish we slide to .97 by november's end
more bearish but bull friendly we do .7 at xmas
bull inferno, .84 november, dipshit lower low in june 2010

says something

p.s. too sick to see your scenarios in detail, and MUST study Dmark if I want to understand your serious charts, being honest here

No doubt... I can't ever seem to make wind of his charts. I know they are pertinent, and that I usually agree. But "I" feel like I am on acid.

Skål!

and mine? a bad trip? LOL

cheat sheet http://screencast.com/t/ojyz9C1H1lV

Yes, I get that... What I don't get is how that works out to all the funky numbers on your charts. And how you determine where to start counting those funky numbers.

Skål!

Call me a simpleton but my motto is to keep it simple/stupid. Complex charts do not equal success in trading.

Oh, I agree with that 100%
SIMPLE is the key...SIMPLE, but not PRIMITIVE

and what freeware does the funky numby thing

banks break up in u.k, is this what is coming for C, BAC

Government to break up the banks

Lloyds, RBS and Northern Rock will be split up in state sell-off

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news...

British came to the senses - nice going - may be fascism will not overtake in their country

Bulkowski's Chart Pattern Indicator now confirmed Bearish on Transports and Utilities (not yet on Industrials, Nasdaq, S&P).
http://thepatternsite.com/CPIUpdate.html#UPDATE

wait 7 days - it will say "turned bullish on Oct 27th"

Here is another cool Fractal!!!

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2600/4050884499_...

Thank you for warming my cold, metal, bear heart.

That fractal just made me squeal with glee... no, really, I did squeak a little bit. NICE FIND!

Interesting. Most of us have noticed the similarities to the wave 2 moves up, but if you expand the fractal to include the bottom of 3, wave 4, and 5, it is still playing out. Nicely done Columbia... +1

Skål!

Let me doctor it up a little: http://screencast.com/t/LWwhmgixsf

Do you have an opinion on this mystery chart? I'm sure you'll recognize it immediately.

http://www.screencast.com/t/IpwxlWM6F

Looks like NDX to me (only thing with a superspike that was feebly retested, crude hasn't done the 2nd dip yet, etc)... like the TL though, nicely done!

I guess that was too easy. Good job!

http://www.screencast.com/t/bpj8CpYCY

But what if we push through that for a test of the red trendline. A rejection from there would be even more telling. Flat consolidation at the peak would seem to indicate another push up per the chart. Coincidentally, that push up tends to be the last.

Skål!

Thanks, good point. Also, since they are monthly closes we could actually trade above both and they would still be valid as long as the monthly close is below. I'm watching how we close Friday in relation to the blue. I'd like a close below and then a trip up to the red in November for an early Christmas present.

Sorry didnt mean to chime in -- just the superspike made it clear to me. I would suggest this quote of Kemal (disqus.com/kemal_1) regarding the Nasdaq:

"Finally a word to Intel and technology. What I am saying here is NOT my invention, I heard that from MIT and Rutgers University professors who work in the area of chip development. They all agree that chips have reached an almost maximal efficiency. It is very difficult and expensive to increase their efficiency even by 5 - 10%. In other words, the silicon chips as we know them are MATURE.
A mature product (and that includes chips, computers, iphones and everything else) loses margin and frequent updating cycles are no longer required. That is where technology stands right now.

Technology inventions are clustered in the second half of a decade. This was true for the 80s (advent of the PC), 90s (internet and cell phones) and the present decade (mobile broadband). The next five years won't be pretty because there is nothing new and great in the offing.

In other words, the Nasdaq has the biggest potential to the downside as we enter a new decade in 2010."

he wrote this on Tim Knight's post "Intel Inside" from a few weeks back...

I would concur that there is much froth to be carved from the NQ.

shit were only at 4 cores and 2gb memory on the chip....We can do better than that and by "we" I mean China.

that is exactly why cubes completing w5 (due to double bottom oct08/mar09)
http://screencast.com/t/p8tJ4JqG

I agree... desk top computing as we know it may die... and we shift to cloud computing... using giant banks of computers... just not on our desk top but remote....

Thanks Berkshire :)
I put together a very bearish count just in case GDP disappoints
http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/

Ahem - news do not matter. Earnings releases are perhaps good for a day - see AAPL.

I absolutely think it should be mandatory that every EWer use Renko charts for their counts...much easier for us non-EWers to see the count.

I do not think GDP will disappoint, crap they threw everything but the kitchen sink at it... but we know that Shorty (not bears)is is really Dead
http://screencast.com/t/WcNj0wpsSAxX

ooops wrong chart/ picture
http://www.screencast.com/t/VLQNj7OmP

It doesn't matter if it does or doesn't...its market reaction that matters....many say whatever meager improved number comes out would have already been priced in.

T Theory now updating daily --
"Oct 27th Comment: No change to forecast of late November low. Market getting oversold but still likely to fall to Mid channel (1037 in the table) before any rally. Terry"
http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calcu...

43 minutes MP3 of the wonderful Louise Yamada Friday, October 23, 2009 -- macro and trading.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broa...

Wall Street/Main Street theme song........Separate Ways

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvEzjpqMY74&feat...

Bear theme song:

Journey and new singer Arnel Pinada

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTCEVcicf7o&feat...

No one but Steve Perry should be singing that song....one of the great front men of all time. -1 for putting that hack on.

Steve Perry would have a hard time limping around........and actually Arnel and the drummer Deen sound just as good if not better than SP.

SP was a Prima Donna. Neal Schon is the backbone of the band.......not the frail SP. Neal still has his chops and they sounded great. Arnel is a great find for Journey.......adios Steve

Some death metal cello to cheer everybody up

Tina Guo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u57cVJnYO1c

what a waste of talent

I play cello.....and I like it......

Still believe we completed a diagonal at 1101 from 978. Believe we are headed to 978 to 1020 into 11-16/17 at minimum. Another bubble is being pricked. DJT , DJU STINK. Sell all 1 to 3 day rallies for now.