No Bid Wednesday Rub Down
Interesting day today – we haven’t seen such an ordered sell off in a long time. Which was exactly what made me nervous actually – I mean there was not even an attempt to fight back. What also supports that notion is that we had no Geronimo alerts today – none – which is quite unusual. As you might know already – Geronimo anticipated program trading raids to the long side sponsored by some of the big players in the game. And when I say big players I mean those guys:
BTW, note the principal to agency ratio of 19!!! Not sure what happened to customer facilitation, the NYSE decided to reformat this report. If I’m reading this thing wrong – please let me know.
In any case, I don’t think those cats have been silent today/yesterday without a purpose.
Yes, perhaps I’m too jaded and I’ll miss out on a long drop tomorrow – possible – but we’re at what seems at the beginning of a downtrend and I decided to take profits on my short term puts earlier today. At some point there’ll be a bounce and heck – I’m not in a rush – we’re above the 1000 mark and then there’s this:
Mr. Vix pushed from close to 20 to nearly 28 in four days – that’s a major move. Good chance we’ll push outside the BB tomorrow if we get another drop. Which would be a first step towards a buy signal.
The Zero was solidly in negative territory – this market did not catch a single bid (breath). That despite an accumulation of divergences which led me to scale out of my short term puts and load up on a handful of short squeeze candidates which were banging against their respective Bollingers. Worth a shot – and I know – sometimes you get burned being a contrarian – we shall see.
Program Trading Report:
No program trades today – again, interesting…
Public Service Announcements:
- If disqus keeps forcing you to log in every time you want to post, here’s what you do in Explorer:
Tools > Internet options – privacy & click sites – add evilspeculator.com and disqus to the allow list and it should work. - Anna just started her own blog – which probably explains the drop in the comment count. Some of of you guys are actually happy and I personally have mixed feelings. I always appreciated the energy she brought to the blog but I couldn’t stand all the attention mongering by various mentally lazy sycophants following her around to leech the next good trade. I guess that comes with the territory and perhaps some of those hobby traders now finally have a playground where they can roam free. I however wish Anna the best of luck and hope she can keep up the energy. It’s one thing to post once or twice and deliver something brilliant or at least moderately interesting. It’s another to keep up the energy for weeks/months/years. I have been posting here for over a year now nonstop and although I occasionally do get support from a few core contributors, in the end when the going gets tough I often find myself on my own devices. Today was such a day and I think despite all the flak I received as of late I posted some mentally stimulating content. Whether or not I’m completely off the mark – well – we shall see – shan’t we?
Cheers,
Mole
This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 28th, 2009 at 5:33 pm and is filed under EOD Wrap Up, Program trading, zero. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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on October 28, 2009 at 5:36 pm mmTesla wrote:
I expect a bounce in the next few days in the mkt. Waiting to reload short, closed out my shorts yesterday close to the low.
on October 28, 2009 at 5:41 pm anotherone wrote:
Mole, I'm not trading anymore since I've acquired all my short positions and I'm taking a long term view. I do recognize the work you've put into this place and salute it. I tried my hand at writing an article every couple of days (in a totally different venue) and it's really tough. Especially with little feedback. Wish I was able to contribute more insightful comments, but you guys are totally out of my league as traders and especially Ellioticians. Love to follow your discussions, though.
on October 28, 2009 at 5:53 pm fa_q wrote:
I've got nothing to post since I left $210k on the fucking table. I don't know if anyone remembers, but there was a really bad afterschool special in the 80s with Judge Reinhold as a basketball player. His coach told him he was a step too slow and he sang a song with the lyrics:
A step too slow son, a step too slow
We're gonna run, yeah, we're gonna go
That's me. A week too early on the entry and day too late on the exit (at least). Inexcusable and unacceptable. Gotta do some tweaking. Back in a couple days.
on October 28, 2009 at 5:55 pm psycho_puppies wrote:
I appreciate all your hard work I just don't have much to say.
on October 28, 2009 at 6:03 pm WTFed wrote:
on October 28, 2009 at 6:04 pm BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix) wrote:
Looks like Lester found her site already lol
on October 28, 2009 at 6:16 pm Bankster wrote:
Your analysis was spot on though. You mentioned yesterday “I can make an argument for this being done, going to 1055 on SPX, 1040 SPC and 1025 SPX.” Bingo! Also I love this quote too about NDX: “So there is a chance we get a big giant flush to end this move.” Double Bingo of Awesome. Thanks.
on October 28, 2009 at 6:18 pm molecool wrote:
Oh boy – LOL
on October 28, 2009 at 6:19 pm molecool wrote:
That's fine – wasn't trying to get a response – just talking shop.
on October 28, 2009 at 6:20 pm gpanek wrote:
Hey Mole.. I have been following you for most of this year. I can't tell you enough how much I appreciate your insight and all the work you're putting into this blog. I also appreciate your ravings as they generally mirror my own feelings of frustration over these last 7 months. Today was an example. After getting beat out of short profits an untold number of times, I bailed on my short term QQQQ puts around mid day only to see the market continue down. Amazing. I have more to say about the vix system and the BB's whereas I use Trix on the vix against a moving average, then look at the diff in a histogram.. it also gives a nice signal for a turn. I will put it up when I get my damn internet back. Hughes net scumbags crank you down to dial up once you go over their bullshit threshhold of 425meg per day, and with the market getting busy now the data flow musta ran me over. I hate those bastards. Now I am choked down for 24 hours. ugh
on October 28, 2009 at 6:20 pm TimV wrote:
Today my wife was talking about EW… For a minute I thought she was talking about the Elliott Wave… turns out she was talking about Entertainment Weekly. Lame.
on October 28, 2009 at 6:21 pm malusDiaz wrote:
Thank you mole!
on October 28, 2009 at 6:38 pm itsbusinesstime wrote:
Mole, your NYSE advancing/declining chart finally breached the .1250 mark which means we are within a day or two of a short term bottom.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUPV:$NYDNV&...
Either way, I'm neutral. I'm still waiting for AMZN to catch up with the rest of the market.
on October 28, 2009 at 6:43 pm de3600 wrote:
Wal-Mart has started selling caskets on its Web site at prices that undercut many funeral homes, long the major seller of caskets.
Guess things do suck
on October 28, 2009 at 6:44 pm WTFed wrote:
They are also selling survival food. Guns must be next. Get those passports ready kids!
on October 28, 2009 at 6:46 pm WTFed wrote:
Socionomics 101
on October 28, 2009 at 6:46 pm de3600 wrote:
The one buy me has guns
Your one stop shop
on October 28, 2009 at 6:46 pm BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix) wrote:
Those caskets will come in handy for the bulls slaughter.
on October 28, 2009 at 6:47 pm WTFed wrote:
What aisle are your urns on?
on October 28, 2009 at 6:48 pm molecool wrote:
Uuuhm – yes – I posted about that earlier today – go a few threads back
on October 28, 2009 at 6:50 pm charles_smith wrote:
Watching gold is like watching a proxy of equities. If gold bounces overnight in Asia that would suggest we're setting up for an equities bounce as per Mole's AD chart. BTW I find those charts compelling and went long via calls on the BGU. If we tank tomorrow they're fried, oh well… as Mole sez, being a contrarian has its risks.
on October 28, 2009 at 6:50 pm TimV wrote:
I also posted this on Twitter today.
“One of my proprietary indicators is giving a sell sign in $gld. Hes a redneck employee with no $ in the mkt. He said 'Gold is where its at.'”
Heh.
on October 28, 2009 at 6:52 pm itsbusinesstime wrote:
Sorry about that. I'm still at my day job and haven't had a chance to read through them all.
on October 28, 2009 at 7:00 pm mugabe wrote:
Seriously mulling some March 23 calls on UUP. I like everything about the chart, and the fact that RSI 14 day has just broken over 50 confirms this. I imagine no one here would take violent exception to this position… (?)
on October 28, 2009 at 7:02 pm fuw wrote:
Good update.
However, I'm staying short at least until tomorrow. S&P bullish percent is still at extremely high levels and we could have a bit to go before a bounce:
http://shorl.com/kenadafragrylo
The euro/usd is also at a key level, and a break would probably mean another fast drop in equities:
http://www.screencast.com/t/v5foiGwZydzi
Green trendlines are are from a longer term daily view.
on October 28, 2009 at 7:12 pm Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
Yes Mole, if an Hamster's view is any good as feedback, I'm scared shitless we should get a touch of 1.5 SPX:GOLD and then break 1.0
If we break 1.6 right away or after retouching 1.0 we go above 1.4 I'd say we have a fith wave coming with 1.07 right away and 1.1 by X-mas
so I'm praying for strong gold during tomorrows bounce
on October 28, 2009 at 7:12 pm StainlessSteelChicken wrote:
I'm sure this count on the dollar is old news by now. Just trying to get caught up while I have some time.
http://tinyurl.com/ykzwwvu
on October 28, 2009 at 7:18 pm fuw wrote:
Really nice chart! I also think that the dollar has more upside, but it still very fragile.
on October 28, 2009 at 7:29 pm KidDisco wrote:
Does anybody get the funny feeling that tomorrow's GDP numbers are going to be a blowout and that this latest dip was some demented bear trap?
on October 28, 2009 at 7:30 pm itsgold wrote:
I'm expecting a backtest on the dollar, but at least we have confirmation of the dollar's general direction.
on October 28, 2009 at 7:34 pm itsgold wrote:
What do people think of this guy's EW charts? I've been following him for awhile now, but I really have no idea.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS...
on October 28, 2009 at 7:35 pm Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
Bear Trap! if there is a higher close on BPSPX we're bull food
the 13 and 50 days moving average are paralel and the BPSPX is at the march low, july low line.
If we have a lower low tomorrow we can go to 65, otherwise it's X-mas highs
http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-F96C_4AE8CC1A.html
IF they fail a higher high tomorrow then it's 65 in november and 45 in january
Dangerous times
on October 28, 2009 at 7:36 pm Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
I'll take a look, please see my answer to fuw on the BPSPX
on October 28, 2009 at 7:36 pm itsgold wrote:
Yes. Also, Pomo tomorrow, despite the small amount left.
on October 28, 2009 at 7:39 pm Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
read my reply to FUW
on October 28, 2009 at 7:39 pm Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
Mole, could you please take a look?
on October 28, 2009 at 7:45 pm Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
by simplifying your w4 triangle you get a clean 5 impulse down for i of 5
your 3 would then seem better as [iii] and your 5 would be iii.
We'd be on iv… there is no right or wrong count with GS around, read my comment to FUW on BPSPX, it depends on tomorrow EOD
best regards
on October 28, 2009 at 7:46 pm The Unknown Trader wrote:
That may be right. Even though today felt like a disaster to me (mainly because I have already deployed my buy-the-dip-money too early), we are short term oversold and the $VIX is stretched over 20% above its 10SMA (See this link http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/10/vix-curr... for more on that.)
Even if the GDP disappoints slightly tomorrow, how much more downside can we have short term?
Anyway, it seems to me that bad news has a way of showing up when the markets are overbought, and good news has a way of showing up when they are oversold.
on October 28, 2009 at 7:49 pm StainlessSteelChicken wrote:
Funny – I had just added a note that this is my alternate count and it is very much in play.
on October 28, 2009 at 7:49 pm Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
Berk, David, anyone!
Bear Trap! if there is a higher close on BPSPX we're bull food
the 13 and 50 days moving average are paralel and the BPSPX is at the march low, july low line.
If we have a lower low tomorrow we can go to 65, otherwise it's X-mas highs
http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-F96C_4AE8CC1A.html
IF they fail a higher high tomorrow then it's 65 in november and 45 in january
Dangerous times
Want your opinions (berkmeister, I'd already talked about MA13 and MA50 to you)
on October 28, 2009 at 7:51 pm Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
Sorry, to be honest just took a quick peek at the chart and there was that “undisireble” option just popping out.
Had any time to see my BPSPX problem?
on October 28, 2009 at 8:03 pm mehmetonb wrote:
spx broken trendline of march low but not spx futures .. which is valid .. any comments ? second , if broken this looks like a narrowing ascending wedge and should go down aroun 940 … ??
on October 28, 2009 at 8:20 pm Wave_Surfer wrote:
That is exactly the kind of info I am looking for!
Thanks!
I was already thinking that maybe Gold & Silver were starting to roll over, this is another important indicator for the long term path of gold.
on October 28, 2009 at 8:26 pm psycho_puppies wrote:
I am new here, but why on down days before this one most were jumping on the p3 bandwagon but today everyone seems very cautious. The USD going up and the S&P going down along with a spiking VIX is what everyone has been looking for. What am I missing?
on October 28, 2009 at 8:29 pm centerline wrote:
Not to sound bullishly alarmist, but Mole also pointed out the big boys simply let this tape run today. There really didn't seem to be any of the usual shenanigans. It was odd calm as we melted down. Furthermore, there is more FED action coming this week.
Although we all try to fade the news, I heard today that if GDP holds true, the results official can claim the recession is over. Funny huh? A nice opportunity to bounce and extend distribution, remembering that bear money is not what the big boys are after – the real trap is for the bulls. Bear money is chump change at this point considering those who are still alive are playing a serious tight game at this point.
I really would, for my own sinister purposes, like to see a nice bounce tomorrow and through Friday. I don't think we make a new high though. I will attempt to back this up with some data if I can.
If I am all wrong here and we go the other way in a hurry, I will unhedge below 1020 with a smile on face.
on October 28, 2009 at 8:40 pm centerline wrote:
I caught a couple rockets in the ass earlier and haven't sought therapy yet.
I happen to agree though. There are so many divergences now as compared to before. The odds of going in here are way better than it was a month or two ago no doubt. And today, we popped through some very critical trendlines in many key areas (except the DOW). I don't think you are missing anything… just saying that this market has defied logic to such an extreme – and is clearly rigged to such an extreme – that many of us are no longer surprised by surprises per se.
There is also the currency issues / bond issues (i.e. monetization of debt, looming currency crisis, etc.), which could cause capital to at some point flee other markets, which could go into equities (unlikely in my opinion), or into foreign investments, commodities, etc. But are still risks in keeping this pig of a market defying the laws of gravity for all the wrong reasons.
What a jaded bunch, huh?
on October 28, 2009 at 8:49 pm Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
“come on in – said the big bad wolf – it's warm and there is food”
too early it would seem, some things stink
on October 28, 2009 at 8:49 pm centerline wrote:
On the bright side, we should know tomorrow. This move is running out of time to confirm the lower low.
At the same time, it would be too “clear” to lead into a higher high so quickly. The past few months seems that we always land in no-man's land so as to confuse everyone… a la bounce up but fail to make a higher high tomorrow.
Hope I haven't dumbed up this thread too much.
on October 28, 2009 at 8:52 pm molecool wrote:
¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
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on October 28, 2009 at 8:52 pm molecool wrote:
Well, had you asked me I would have responded
on October 28, 2009 at 8:54 pm NorbertTO wrote:
GS lowered their GDP estimate TODAY to 2.7 from 3. They are the best. Everytime I bet against them I loose (like today looking for a pop and bid going into month end ). GS, just bet with them. You will make more money and be happier.
Norb
on October 28, 2009 at 8:56 pm Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
I ASKED (first person) I even wrote the link to my answer to FUW.
Thou be an evil master….
on October 28, 2009 at 9:19 pm psycho_puppies wrote:
The market has defied logic for quite some time, but isn’t that it’s purpose? … Another interesting divergence lately is the market falling on “better then expected” news / earnings. The mood seems to have changed. The morning GDP report should be interesting even though e-waves make the news (or so the theory goes).
on October 29, 2009 at 6:04 am fuw wrote:
Ofcourse this could be a bear trap. We've certainly gotten used to that over this year. I agree that we're at a crucial point (based on support levels, counts, MAs etc), but to me things are looking promising for us bears. But I will tread cautiously. One of the best things with this place is that these different point of views keeps you somewhat grounded, and hopefully decreases the chance of being overtly biased and blind to some scenarios.
on October 29, 2009 at 6:08 am fuw wrote:
See my answer to your post above.
on October 29, 2009 at 6:55 am Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
I am biased but try not being blind. Maybe we'll be safe and drop to 68 in a couple of day, but I'll be keeping an eye on this
on October 30, 2009 at 3:08 pm KidDisco wrote:
i'm thinking we get a bounce anyway. but if its blowout GDP number,
there's going to be a whole lot of short covering…
on October 30, 2009 at 3:08 pm KidDisco wrote:
sorry for the dumb question, but what's FUW?
on October 30, 2009 at 3:08 pm KidDisco wrote:
nevermind… that was truly a dumb question….
on October 30, 2009 at 3:09 pm KidDisco wrote:
i bet ON them yesterday by way of upside calls. needless to say, i got
raped.
on October 30, 2009 at 3:26 pm NorbertTO wrote:
I got raped too, Prison style. Made it worse today. I hate GS more than I can articulate.
Trend = friend
on October 30, 2009 at 7:07 pm Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
have you seen it was the user that talked about the BPSPX?
on October 30, 2009 at 7:08 pm KidDisco wrote:
i'm thinking we get a bounce anyway. but if its blowout GDP number,
there's going to be a whole lot of short covering…
on October 30, 2009 at 7:08 pm KidDisco wrote:
sorry for the dumb question, but what's FUW?
on October 30, 2009 at 7:08 pm KidDisco wrote:
nevermind… that was truly a dumb question….
on October 30, 2009 at 7:09 pm KidDisco wrote:
i bet ON them yesterday by way of upside calls. needless to say, i got
raped.
on October 30, 2009 at 7:26 pm NorbertTO wrote:
I got raped too, Prison style. Made it worse today. I hate GS more than I can articulate.
Trend = friend
on October 30, 2009 at 11:07 pm Stainless_Steel_Hamster wrote:
have you seen it was the user that talked about the BPSPX?