Bounce À La Carte

I know what you are thinking now: ‘Boy oh boy - am I glad Mole told me to not chase the tape yesterday.’ Just kidding - I’m sure anyone who’s left here was smart enough to not put his member into that wood chipper. So, we got our little bounce - and I collected my toll fee via the longs I grabbed last night. Which were AMSC, ATPG, CSTR, GMCR, LAMR, MYL, and NFLX. Berk shot me those in the morning (you rock mate!) and I picked those right where I wanted them - outside their beautiful 2.0 BB. Strangely enough Berk and I follow completely different systems but often arrive at the same POV - if we both agree on a symbol it’s usually a winner. But that’s history - you’re only as good as your next trade, so let’s move on:

As I indicated - everything is possible but as the wave count is progressing as planned I am tempted to load up on a few short term puts if we bounce towards 1062. It might not happen at all and we might go straight down from here. If it happens we’ll meander around throughout the day, retest VWAP a few times and then shoot up before the close. Remember, today is a POMO day:

And pop a bottle of bubbly today as this probably is the last one - unless Heli-Ben gets a reload from our corrupt congress. Either way - today they’ve got only fumes left and it should only be good for a little bounce EOD. The results are announced around 11:00am - we’re about 15 minutes away from that.

The ole’ buck has dropped into a little retracement, also just as expected. Either we drop towards the 38.2% or we’ll most likely go down and retest the 61.8% fib. Why not the 50%?

Well, according to 2sweeties’ DXY odds calculator we now have two high frequency retracement levels which just so happen to line up exactly with those two fibs. So, place your trades accordingly.

I enjoy times like this - when things line up with each other and you can actually assess your odds and pick your trades based on your analysis. Something I have dearly missed in the past eight months - probably the toughest period of my trading career.

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 29th, 2009 at 10:45 am and is filed under Currencies, Elliott Wave Theory, Intraday Update, Retracement Levels, TOMO/POMO. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

derekste

LVS starting a nosedive... glad I loaded up on some front month $14 Puts!

molecool

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Stainless_Steel_Hamster

carefull people they turned their guns on nasdaq (or this is the end)

berkshire

Last 2 /ES highs have been unconfirmed by /6E (of course until I write this)...

Skål!

dreadwin

Ferocious short covering in IYR during the last 10 mins!

molecool

THAT is what I want to see :-)

tradejane

Yeah, I know, isn't it wonderful? :)

dreadwin

Glad I stuck to my plan. Sounds like you stayed with yours :)

ds2

I'm green but daily MACD sez this rally is just getting started. No?

gregn

Soylant blue it is. At least out of the alternatives given. I see us rallying to 1075 to create a right shoulder.

skynard

My thought also, looking at the line being 1080.

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

This market needs to start turning around very soon.

gsavli

or else?

molecool

Bogeyman...

PRSGuitars

/dx pop warning -- we are at monthly VWAP on /DX from above and retesting critical 76 level albeit on HUGE volume already (ie, lots of participation forcing it back down - slash - forcing equities up).

Also at daily 20 sma... http://screencast.com/t/p6Bs3p1IQ8mU

Beware, if this is a gauge of 'how hard they work to push the market up' I would offer that the daily volume of /DX is showing that they are working OVERTIME to do so today. Beware shorts (although technically we're nearing the time to do so), just be skeptical -- not saying don't do it.

I'm adding cautiously to Mar puts

Randy Harris

Mole, you're loading up short while your famous 2 Hour Stochs are all screaming Buy...

WTF?

roncofooddehydrator

I thought he normally looked at the weekly stochs?

catracho

and the cheerleading goes on...BBC news leads with US GDP "Growth" and how positive it is for world economy...!

PRSGuitars

intraday A/D line, TICK, volume, etc divergence -- showing immediate but brief downside possible (target 1053-1055) for a quick nab

JoeBear

Did the dollar just complete an initial motive wave 1 and a wave 2 correction?

DXY Simple EW Count

I'm an EW neophyte but it seems pretty clear. Would definitely appreciate other more experienced eyes on this.

Vardoger

I'd be surprised if wave 2 was this short in time duration if that is the right count. IMHO wave 3 on the dollar is going to be really strong as it convincingly breaks out of the ED on the daily. Maybe 'A' of 2 complete? That 76 on /dx is still holding.

ultra

count is more likely 1,2,(1),(2),(3),(4),3,4,5,a - and we need b,c to complete 2 down.

Vardoger

Good call Ultra, I think we are seeing the same thing. The question in my mind though is if stocks and $ are so closely correlating, does that lend credence to SPX having completed a 5-wave move down already or that wave 5 could extend as the dollar rips into it's wave 3 in a few days?

ultra

Your guess is as good as mine, amigo. I see no reason to suspect that the correlation has broken down. Yet. But that doesn't mean that it has to move in lock-step. So we appear to have had (a) down in /DXY correlate with {4} up in SPX, we could then have (b) up in /DXY correlate with {5} down in SPX and (c) with 2 up.

The magnitude of the move does not have to correspond for them to correlate is my point. I see this a lot.

/edit - clarification - correlate is probably the wrong word - I meant that things tend to move in the same direction at the same time, even if they don't move the same amount

berkshire

Or that, per Berk's thoughts, we could actually see some correlation between /DX and $SPX for a little while?

Skål!

JoeBear

I see what you mean -- makes sense. Thanks, Ultra.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

might

elliott_surfs

doji on the 15min ES...almost looks like an incomplete H&S

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

retrace to 1058 would be in order

Tronacate

Russel titty line still in play.....

Trader_Steve

On CNBC today:

Democrat congressman Sherman appeared and says he has 900 pages from Geithner and that he wants to cross out three pages.

He says it's TARPS on steroids given to the executive branch that will allow for them to give 10-20 large banks all they ever need at any time.

Section 1109 allows them to lend unlimited amounts of money

Section 1604 allows unlimited investments in them

He said that to listen to Geithner, he never mentions these aspects of the bill.

We are at war with this administration. And if anyone here thinks that they have not targeted all of us for extinction with that 1/4% tax per side of the trade (work out what you traded this week and you'll see what it adds up to) then you are decidedly not aware of the program.

Steve

vision_invisible

Here here. We are definitely at war with the captured interests. FED + BANKS. Geithner must be a real idiot to do the bidding of GS, JPM, FED interests and not really participate in a major cut.

Tronacate

I thought the war was with Al Queerda......make up your minds.......jeez

vision_invisible

dude there are 2 wars, the first war gives the bankers direct treasury funding via FED, the other war funds the military industrial complex via Congress.

in other news take a look at this chart courtesy of Jesse - in 9 years we cranked from $500 billion in household debt to $2.5trillion - we used to be positive how sad

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SukNR5-1i...

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

there are still numbered accounts, and you might as well have something other than 401's if you want a proper retirement...

Tronacate

We need a revolution......bring out the guillotine

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

guillotine was invented as human way to kill. As they're doing magic... let's burn them as witches

p.s. the tax and tarp+ is relevant, otherwise, as per mole's request, let's cut politics

Trader_Steve

The guillotine was accepted as the winner of a request for a device to kill people quicker than by hanging. Humane was NOT a word in France at that time. In reality, the French Revolution perfected terrorism. No member of a society had ever been afraid to live in it to the level the French haad made theirs, and Napoleon was essentially brought to power to stop what had gotten out of hand.

Steve

Tronacate

Yes.....burn them.........

Tronacate

But spank them first.....lol..... I love Monty Python

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

oh my!another MP fan.... it seems we have an abnormal percentage of:

1. SF fans
2. MP fans
3. pilots/flight fans
4. mole fans

Tronacate

Need an expensive study on these characteristics.......perhaps a grant is in order

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

who do you think we are? go earn your money. TRADE

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

didn't I say they'd tax trading to death?

Trader_Steve

I am by no means an extremely active trader. I tend to keep trades overnight. At 1/2 of the face value of my trading last year, my commissions would have been over $350,000. Virtually everyone will be out off the game as Obama has stated he prefers "investors" in the mkt and not day traders just trying to make a quick profit. I don't think that will pass....but 28% STCG and 50% LTCG taxes wouldn't surprise me from Che Obama (don't blame me...they have him like Che on a brown shirt and some kids wear them)

Steve

Rocky

Wow...Mortie called this move again today. The soylent blue is what Mortie has been calling for, and boy o boy, am I glad that while I didn't catch this move up (knock on the forehead), I am not shorting every retracement level today, hoping for reversal...courtesy Mortie's sagely advice all day.

Eva S

is Mortie = Mole ?

molecool

No, my call doesn't count - despite the fact that yesterday everyone thought the world is going to end. It's ALL Morty - LOL :-)

vision_invisible

your a/d chart made me sweet fast cash lol yesterday...got out eod

Eva S

What I like about your charts and analysis is that you provide an alternative. I've followed your charts for a few months. Even though you were mostly bearish, you were not an arrogant bear & always provided a bullish alternative.

vision_invisible

Should the Evil Speculator be the Arrogant Bear

jokes

berkshire

I think as a general rule, bears are not arrogant. We know that we are fighting against the natural order of the "herds" in the market. We also know that we are gonna get burned a lot, as any regulation is designed to prop markets, not drop them.

From my experience, the bulls are far more arrogant.

Skål!

gregn

Why would your call count? We are at the crossroads of soylant blue and soylant orange Mr Mole. What is the exact value of your resistance/cutoff? I have 1061.68.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

Jesus said the same, you're never accepted as a prophet at home...

don't worry, it won't be all "morty, Morty" someone will remember that ssh also said calm down (LOL)

berkshire

I think it is funny that your initials tell you to be quiet... :-P

Skål!

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

I wouldn' call it funny, I'd call it ironic...

p.s. any subliminal message on your comment?

berkshire

No. Just chuckled when you said that someone would remember ssh said this...

Skål!

Rocky

NO..He is the analyst at the other service at bostonwealth.net who is by far the best market-timer I have found, with excellent short-term analysis and long term views, without a bull/bear bias. I was salivating some shorts, when he tweeted this...

"Mortie says:
October 29, 2009 at 12:28 pm
ES is very strong today. Went through that 100% extension of W1 and a 60 min. Trendline with good volume. Freight train today for you short minded"

and I stayed out.....

Eva S

Thanks, Rocky!

Tronacate

I added to NIHD and FWLT shorts earlier......look mighty weak.....still in DTG putz

berkshire

I added FWLT too. NIHD hasn't been filled yet. And boy am I loving DTG's action today.

Skål!

Tronacate

DTG is "shining".......lol.......nice call berkster

berkshire

Thanks... I try to keep us ahead of the ball...

Skål!

Tronacate

I appreciate it.....keep up the great work.

CandleStickEmUpper

is my chart messed up or did the eur.usd just paint a big ass red candle

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

probably, didn't i just say, 5 minutes away, that wave 5 was about to end?

gannsecret

next resistance 1065

Eva S

then 1070 & 1082

gannsecret

well......speak up

gannsecret

today ?

amokta

quick query
1) is $120 in broker commissions reasonable to buy 4 spx puts (no extra charge to close)
2) is BGZ good for bear-baiting medium-term
3) is tomorrow going to be an down or up day
4) what will the SPX be at in 3 months time
EWI Ssht term-update seems to be in the primary wave 3 down camp

thunda72

Shit... I pay $4.50 plus 0.50 a contract. So your transaction would cost 6.50 each way.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

1. don't know
2. if too much up and down you might end uop losing money... vereaged etfs have that problem
3. risky right now, but morning should be mainly up
3. take your pick, from 800's heading for a june double bottom to 1300. Nevertheless there it would surprise me if it was between 900 and 1100

amokta

thanks !

Tronacate

$120........you've got to be kidding

amokta

not kidding the broker here in UK (berkeley) charges that - seems hefty

Tronacate

Go to tradestation or similar....that's insane.....

Eva S

BGZ is a sell as the market will be up tomorrow.

re #1 - not a good idea to be buying SPY puts at this moment

amokta

thanks ! - not buying any puts right now (have some from before)

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

For anyone who decides they are going to go to Vegas on VAC, please don't go to Las Vegas Sands. I currently own puts on them lol.

Vardoger

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmOOINCGGew

Vardoger

US, China agree to relax trade limits

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125680121414515...

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

as far as nasdaq and gold are concerned I would say 5 waves up close to finishing. SPPX can also so be counted.

Prepare to close longs for retrace IMHO

p.s. a subminuette [v] may be missing, 5 nasdaq points est.

PeterK80

I am just not touching anything today and will sit in cash for now. Yes we could and maybe technically should fall... but I feel like I've seen this before. Pomo day ... and it seems like everyone on most boards expects more immediate downside.

Mole's blue count scares the hell out of me... anyone else thinking end of the day squeeze?

dreadwin

Absolutely. I watch IYR, and I think that the maximum it can go to today is 41.56. That's 2% higher than where it is right now.

PeterK80

Yeah I see us goin to 1070-1075 if we dont start to roll over soon. Every time there has been a max target it has usually hit it in this rally.

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Teddy bear and i talked it over and decided to put are toe in the water for LVS June 10's puts. Buying only 15 lots so far at 1.40. Lets see if i get hit. Damm MM's

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Well it looks like i got hit.

dreadwin

What I'm looking for: Assuming that IYR keeps setting new highs on the daily, watch out for late day short covering in IYR, typically during the last 4 minutes. If I see this, I will go long DRV and sell during the first 1/2 hour tomorrow am.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

nasdaq seems to want to call it a day with v of 5 below 2099

Tronacate

What's Anna blog called?

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

go to her profile, you've got a link there

afterwards tell us the color of the sexy bear costume of the day

catracho

http://hotoptionbabe.com/

Tronacate

you've got to be kidding!!!!!.......lol

Vardoger

WoW. [speechless]

Blind_Squirrel

..

elliott_surfs

Santelli claiming there's a bearish pattern over a 14wk period for the USD. Anyone else see this?

molecool

I guess he wants to see 1% Dollar bulls instead of 3% for a low to be real :-)

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

well, as for today... are we there yet?

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

can't remember the durtion, but see chikens alt count (I came to the same at first look)

catracho

and the cheerleaders begin
"US Summers says positive 3q GDP shows economy turning corner"
"US Summers says"positive 3q GDP sign of Administration Policy success"..

Unfadable

Really kicking myself for not buying ATPG calls on the close. Good call on that one, the ones I was looking at are up 157% today. Where does Berk scan for that data? Is there an easy (free) way to do it?

centerline

I posted earlier that I was all over it yesterday at the close and did not get filled! (LOL). Had an order in for a buttload of contracts too. I refuse to chase this stuff though. Just missed it. Great call Berk.

berkshire

Yup. Berk uses screeners on finviz, and checks them for indicators of his liking.

Skål!

LostIllini

this might be the ugliest chart I have ever seen.....Where do you think this is going?

http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold...

berkshire

If that is the ugliest chart you have ever seen, you need to look at more charts...

May I suggest CROX starting around OCT 07. WCG in OCT 07 and NOV 08. Not to mention an old chart of BSC, MER, LEH, ABK, MBI, FRE, FNM, SLM, or any other financial.

Skål!

LostIllini

Excellent point...but I do hyperbole really, really well.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

on heretic gs? bounce (smaLL) 50 BOTTOM rebound

let me now...

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

LVS earnings after the bell. Any put bets?

berkshire

I am very short with a plethora of long term puts and a few front months...

Skål!

Vardoger

Yeah I have a surfeit myself. Dollar liking that round 76 level?

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

what strike price and what months.I wonder if its worth buying them later today or if Vol has pumped these up to much.I dont want to get crushed on vol when they come out with earnings.Thoughts?

berkshire

Mostly Jan ; 11 and 12.5s. Got a few Nov 14s to boot.

About the IV. Always pretty high as it is a volatile stock. Front months are only running at an 8% premium, that's not too bad in my experience.

Skål!

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

How about the June 10's? This should give us enough time for the stock to be at $5 a share. With unemployment keep going up who the hell can go to vegas? Plus Primary wave 3 at its back.

berkshire

Yeah. They look great. Cheap and plenty of time. I agree about the longer term target, just looking to capitalize on some short term gains...

Skål!

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

Berk, just a question, was there any geronimo call or zero signal after 12:20?

but check with mole if you can give that information (I'm asking because 1 hour has passed so no free meal, subs got it in real time)

berkshire

There was an alert this morning that hit target pretty quick. They are still having some issues with the new system set up (as is expected). Sorry mate.

Skål!

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

just curious if geronimo had caught gs after 12:22

centerline

Felt the disturbance in the force as market up and options flattening out... sure enough, VIX pulling back.

If this holds as roughly the HOD then F-it. I will take half my long hedges down later today and see what happens tomorrow. Below 1020, the gloves come off.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

well, s&p count's been raped (as usual) nasdaq still holds. ately that has been enough...

BloodWine

Hi Hamster :)
do you see this as a 4th wave?

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

sorry, you had asked A 4th wave

Yes but it's faked, from 12:22 onwards we're on POMO fuel

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

nopes, in revised GS wave for SPX its [iv] of iii of 1

BUT Nasdaq's not complying fully

WATCH THE NASDAQ

BloodWine

Thanks... appreciate your input :)

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

for what it's worth...

I'm afraid my counts are a bit unhorthodox

but so is this market

goldpackers

If wrong on bearish count then up to new highs into 11-10 before next sell off

gregn

My indicator array definitely showing a buy here: http://screencast.com/t/W48OyXws

derekste

Is it just me, or is your indicator showing several buys that you chose not to highlight?

Not trying to flame, just curious as to what the buy signal on this particular indicator actually is...

gregn

There was one on the 25th that I missed -- but it was still a good buy as long as you sold when it was profitable. The signal is when momentum and MS are at the extreme low and the MOSC crosses upper red line. The MOSC cross is trigger, the rest is setup. I am sorry if I didn't clarify this. I would say that there

BloodWine

Oops... the 28th of September

gregn

I did miss the 28th on that chart, but I would say it was still a buy signal for that day.

BloodWine

Hi Greg :)
I see you have been working on this chart. I have a few questions...
Are you using these indicators to trade now?
Why is there not a buy signal on the 28th?
Did you decide on a selling indicator for this system?
TIA... and Good Luck :)

gregn

I did use the indicator to cash my puts yesterday as I expected a bounce today due to indicator. Let's say I have been using it for bounces more than intermediate term moves.

Vardoger

Please let me top-tick this bitch, although with dollar & bonds tanking highly unlikely.. Possible spx 64 target

upld2

The GDP number is just more government bullshit!

Here's the real story. Real GDP is way down: http://market-ticker.org/archives/1550-GDP-Is.....

elliott_surfs

Good read, thank you =)

CNBC - plaster THOSE numbers on your teleprompters and silly touch screens you bastards

charles_smith

Many market tops are marked by a double-top and I consider that highly likely here.

Also, many options I follow are showing spreads that are huge and skewed to the bid. It's like MMs are trawling for skittish sellers. Just an observation.

One last point: this has been called the most hated rally in history. (I certainly hate it!) It seems fully hated once again, as if it "can't keep rallying." That in itself is a warning flag that this POS could run to a new high just to spite the disbelievers.

goldpackers

spx 1061 to 1063 should cap this part of the rally if bearish then back off and another run up tomorrow

charles_smith

Bearish as I am I agree with Bob. Pull up a simple price chart of the SPX and you see an uptrend with 4 retraces from July. No lower lows, no violations of the 50-day MA which last longer than a day or two--this is an uptrend and I have lost a lot of money betting on its demise Aug.-Sept. Now we all see the weakening in the weeklies and the divergences--but price is telling us this is an uptrend.

Standard-issue TA: SPX above the 50-day at 1051 raises likelihood of retrace to the 20-day MA at 1070. Nothing fancy there. Once there, likelihood rises of a right-shoulder at 1080, double-top at 1100 or nominal new high at 1120 to finally kiss that fibo.

Please note the full stochastic is still oversold and one day will not relieve it. Also, recall Mole's AD chart. That won't reach a sell signal for awhile.

I made good coin on the decline from last Friday and intend on doing so on the way up, and then again on the way down. But there is nothing in the tape to suggest this is a one-day wonder. Be careful, as everyone here sez....

bobthehorse

It's just about playing the odds. I am bearish as hell, don't even own a house. But you don't sell this market when it is already over-sold until it is proven in primary wave-down trend which it clearly is not. In fact, it is in massive uptrend so you buy the ass of it here as the set-up is very similar to July. I don't like it but I have to do it.

goldpackers

Gann turn days on 11-2/3 11-16/17. Do not favor collapse here but an A_B_C x A_B_C decline to 978 into ~11-17. tomorrow should top first B wave then hard down into 11-3 for C(1020) then up in an x wave till ~11-10 before the next A_B_C down to 978, the beginning of the diagonal.

If we are not down hard into 11-3 then must re assesssssssssssssssssss

fuw

Euro/usd 4h:
http://www.screencast.com/t/QFa1xTJC

Still in my personal indecision zone (highlighted - 1.470-1.485), but testing the upper range now. The green trendlines are from a longer timeframe.

Vardoger

Does anyone see an open gap on the spoos at 1060.5? EWI was talking about it and show in on a 30 min bar chart but I can't see it.

WTFed

I read that too, but like you, couldn't see the gap.

bobthehorse

It's going up and it's going up a lot. That GDP report tells us there is a wave of earnings upgrades coming through. It's very hard for equities to go down in that environment unless valuations are crazy. And they are not . . . yet. Being short is a suicide trade here.

amokta

has the bull market returned? is it time to sell long-dated puts?
dow/spx making news highs? - get ready to wear dow 10,000 hats?

Eva S

You bears are so emotional. LOL!!

Vardoger

Sell those puts to me, you'll make a killing.

goldpackers

Should be completing A of an abc rally soon with the C coming tomorrow. 1072 spx should cap the rally.

LostIllini

going through the charts bought some APOL Puts, that chart just looks sick I don't see any upside and it looks like it will probably break support again today.....

Bounce À La Carte

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