????????????? is - is this 1 of 3 down(major bearish) or an A-B-C to be followed by an X wave into 11-10 then another A-B-C down ( minor bearish) into ~11-17.

BIG gann days M/T IF WE COLLAPSE THE ?????????????? will be answered.

back test, i've got 1039.75 as the trend line from march. (linear, not log)

I hope rimm dies to 40 :)

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EVA S
loved your post yesterday


Eva S 12 minutes ago in reply to amokta

BGZ is a sell as the market will be up tomorrow.

re #1 - not a good idea to be buying SPY puts at this moment

2:08 pm thursday 10-29-2009

You have to be flexible. If things do not go your way, admit your mistakes & move on. :-)

if today is a down day, will monday be an up day (sure as night follows day?)
if i could predict this a bit betterr, i could become rich !

Or Black Monday coming. That would be a death call to bulls.

When I wrote my pre-market, I certainly underestimated the lack of bids from month-end. I never thought we would see this low. Sorry if I misled anyone on SPX /ES.

you only gave your thoughts you did nothing wrong or mislead anyone

"VIX is up 22% and back over 30, the highest since July, and it's been shaky this week, with a spike that some read as a buy signal. "

Not sure if the bounce up on Monday.

VIX on viagra today. All I can say is wow. 25%+ up

Anyone else considering selling front-month put spreads?

Shorted AMZN... who wants to join the party =)

Gald you've joined, had to sweat it out on this one until now.

A bit premature, but maybe something to consider:
http://www.screencast.com/t/HwifLPi1a

Yes, we are at totally different times in the rally, but the similarity between the patterns just struck me. Lets see if a HS starts building over the next week. But I think this can be used to caution us bears - funny(!) things can happen.

Good point but let's remember that usually HS do NOT fail. July was rather the exception. Plus I really don't think we will have a HS here, I think prices will break lower without a RS forming. Look at Russell2000 which has already broken its low of Oct 2.

Yes, I'm also not expecting a HS. I just wanted to put this out there.

I'm pretending to see an even bigger one forming from the March lows...

Do you mean the repetition of the same pattern, where the two sub-patterns resemble full move from March lows?

forgive me if it is asked before.. I am short AMZN ( via 110 DEC Puts ). Right now, +ve, but thinking of getting out of it now.. Should I keep it through next week or get rid of them..? tia..

Looking at indicators, it looks as though MACD (8,17,9) are about to crack 0...SS (60,3) hasn't even come out of overbought territory...so your potential reward is huge....but you could tighten trailstop a bit....

Now looking for elevator style drops and muted bounces til 990.....

Berk/Mole, thoughts on EL? I went ahead and grabbed some puts earlier. Already doing nice. Looks like there are gaps to sub-38 which is also where the 50 day MA lies. Up 9%+ today on earnings. I didn't check the float, and the spread is little funny - but options are cheap and there is minimally sufficient volume.

Finally BAC broke 15. That has been resistance all week. I guess I closed my puts on that one a little too early.

If it retests and 15 becomes the ceiling, it could be good for more short action.

Same here I've been in puts until 15.

Yeah. It bounced too many times off of 15, and my trust was waning - so I bailed the other right around 15.10 or so. I have to say that I was expecting a little less drama today! This is great nonetheless - more opportunities starting to open up now that we have a decent move.

trannies at key support here....3600....love that two-titted double top though....makes me horny...

Where's Benny now?

no real support until S&P 1020 and even that is tenous

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/10/bookkee...

Looking to get a little bounce off of S3 (67.57) here for FAS.

DXY high was 76.58; not seven eight point five eight on Wednesday - for all you USD watchers.

IS that a crack I see in the AMZN shell....ummm better wait...that gap fill is screaming at me though...

PALM.....11.82

VIX above 30, where is resistance? I see 34.59 on the 23.6 fib. and 32.77 on the 200 day.

Norb

sry VIX above 31 now

Wow, that's a huge jump in the VIX. I've been a bull for a long time but the 25% increase looks convincing.

BAC just COLLAPSED through 15....14.75

DAMNIT, i wished the banks would just stay afloat...they cant let the banks just fall on their faces.

Chart on momentum based short sell trigger for SPX: http://screencast.com/t/IxtfTwV9gJ

RIMM new LOD

All inverse ETFs have similar charts & are probably a good way to go if we have a longer down leg : EDZ, ERY, EEV, FAZ, SMN, DUG, SKF, BGZ etc

is there any ETF which seems to hold up better when market going against it (i think BGZ seems good?)

All of them look the same to me -- i.e. oversold & ready to go up if the $ goes higher.

great - i have some BGZ, just into profit (could sell and wait for a dip to buy, but then involves commission/spread costs, for my modest holding!)

P3's always start with alot of tepid, meek bears who wait too long to dive into the pool...by the time they are finished dipping their toes all the other kids have already had an hour or so of fun.....

yesss, cmon in, the water's fine!

I've been playing since 1090 my friend....long term IWM puts up 80% already...SPY puts doing well too...

Yuppers......

VIX 29.92

That's awesome.... I've got 31.04, up over 25%. Yee-haw!

Am I right in saying that since July, we have not had a single bearish engulfing candlestick pattern like we are showing today?

IYR setting a new low, even as SPX did not.

EUR hit the pivot at 1.4718 and bounced. So what happens now?

Looking at the 30 min chart, there is a shoulder and head that formed starting at 3:30 AM EDT on the 29th Oct (yesterday), with the head starting at 8:30 am EDT yesterday (the big drop in USD and sky rocket in commodities after the GDP release) and ending in the 12:30 - 12:59 candle today.

If you believe in H&S (I'm not sure that I do), then we are now beginning the right shoulder. Look at the height of the head! from 1.4727 (the neckline) up to a high of 1.4859 = approx 130 pips. That means the downside target would be 1.46; or about $1,500 per futures contract.

The left shoulder got up to 1.4763 - now, I don't know if there are any rules about one shoulder vs the other, but the only resistance I see overhead is TD tecnical resistance at the mid bollinger around 1.4759, and the FIB line at 1.4773 - which isn't really a FIB line (only 38 and 62 are IMHO).

Closer to now, on the 3 min chart, the mid bollinger is at 1.4745 and the upper boll is at 1.4761 - doesn't look like there is a lot of impetus to move up there (London is closed, so it would have to be the work of Evil CBs. heh).

I would suggest a sideways move into the close from here to put in the bump on the shoulder, no?

Even though we have gone below the low of Wed on SPX, (not on ES, hmmmmm), we still have not put in a lower low on the daily chart. We would need 1019.95 (call it 1020) to be beat for a new low.

In the meantime, SPX is sitting on the trendline that began in July (if you have my original chart - check it out, it is the shallower lower violet trend line). I will try to post a chart this weekend for an update. I'm still very confused by all the different trend lines i see, and the varying conclusions that they are producing. Try as I might, I still am unable to replicate TK's trend line that has SPX going below then bearishly coming back on the retrace before falling again. If this was "below the line", then it is very bearish. If it is "above the line", then it can still go either way.

In any case, 1020 is needd for CONFIRMATION that the trend has changed decisively. Heh. you can still collected your Ameros scalping, cause it's a decent ways down ( 20 points is nothing to sneer at the way this market has gone).

Cheers

Thanks. $CA & metals also flattening a bit now

Is this the confirmation to load up on SPY puts? Or wait for a bounce. I got in yesterday too early and cut my losses

It appears that we may finally have moved from a 6 month period where the only thing you had to do was pick the dip to buy, to a new phase where all you have to do is pick the rip to sell.

I'm not in the business of picking bottoms in a bear trend, but the VIX is popping the shit out of the daily BB's.

Damn these illiquid MAR puts... I'm at -200 delta and +300 vega.... SPY down 2.5 points, VIX up almost 5 (!!!), but account only up $700... LOL! (Not that I'd be selling any time soon, though.)

SPX back below the 89MA on the weekly....very, very key....it sits at 1060, we would need to finish this week above that if the bulls are gonna have anything left. We had a 2 week fakeout above that MA.....nasty bastards.

Most stocks I follow are now back at eod Wednesday levels and in a holding pattern - let's see what's next...

Very distinct 5 waves down on the RUT daily

News from ToS: A real break of 50dma could undo the rally.

RUT is going to lead the pack........

Looks like every bounce is getting sold into......

.

wtf

Looks like a dollar bull flag on the 1min.

Ah! heads up!

DX failed to break yesterdays highs. EUR seems to have bottomed and is reversing off the S1 support pivot. MIGHT HAVE BOTTOMED FOR THE DAY! just beware.

Hope everyone is doing alright on days like these... wicked, wicked stuff all around. Been very ill lately so I haven't been charting at all as I said I would -- I owe you people. Trust me, I know.

THinking the same on the Euro. My Silver contracts seem to also concur; wanting to hold the previous low at 16.11
Agree with anotherone
Get better.
Thanks for your contribution!

RUT: http://screencast.com/t/KZItl08pG

Recuperate
Trade for yourself
Chart for us

In that order

I'm glad I got out of both longs yesterday! Watching IYR -- it seems to have bounced off of yesterday's low (40.20). It's down less than the SPX at this moment, which gives me pause. Usually on strong down trend days, IYR leads the market down.

Same here. Sold out all longs except one high-dividend paying stock which I hedged with SRS at the close. Imo it's the banks who are leading us down...

Wouldn't surprise me here to see another charge down in IYR. There is an unfilled gap from Monday at 39.60-ish.

Looks like it's happening

and transports...

Highest hourly volume on the SPY in the last three days. During the hour that is usually the lowest volume. While setting a new low and closing below the low from 2 days ago. I think that qualifies as panic. Don't think the guys in the pits took much of a lunch today.

However, SPY has poked through it's lower Bollinger Band, so it might bounce a little to catch it's breath.

Sounds more like a raid, not panic. Hit em when there sleeping (or eating).

Incidentally, for anyone day-trading FAS/FAZ (I don't currently, but I'm observing for the future), the 1% envelope around the 30 period EMA, 1 minute chart seems like a decent indicator. If it breaks outside that envelope (in either direction) it will generally revert back to the 30 period EMA in short order. If it breaks outside that envelope and the bollinger band, it's even better.

I really need to start charting the occurrences each day and seeing what kind of profit can be made, but figured I would mention it. Pivot points also seem to work well with FAS/FAZ.

Cool... thanks for the info. I've been getting back into FAS this week, with mixed results...

something doesn't feel right here..........there's just no bid........

It's end of month. Bids are thin because all the buying was completed by yesterday. No one is left who really wants to be in a position. The only ones buying are those who HAVE to be in a position - or who are buying the dips. lol.

VIX is up on options because the specialists know they have those who are trying to hedge away risk, by the proverbial balls.

That's it.

OMG - carnage, just back from meeting, browser froze at dow -184, le-loaded its down 231 !

Road map for VIX

http://screencast.com/t/y4k83a7biI

Correction last time to buy puts in the low 20's

Great chart, thank you.

Was actually looking today at the fractal from last year right at the sell-off. I am watching this as well.

Massive elevator shaft TICK drops with corresponding Volatility spikes to boot.....that is bearish!

Already at S2 (69.58) on FAS. Yesterday it took until 3pm to hit that on FAZ. I expect a bounce, but if we break through there's a lot of time where we can still get down to S3 (67.57).

Mole....Too early for Rammstein?

Naw.... play that shit!

Dr. Doom says GDP numbers were horrendous when you dig a little.......and then no job recovery until 2012!!....retailers will have one sorry x-mas

Aye. Xmas going to suck ass. For a consumer driven economy, this is going to hurt. My guess is that anybody that is semi-awake knows this... and the market will begin building this in prior to the holidays (as in now). Pump earnings and dump into the year end crapper. One last BULL trap. not bear trap.

All we need is a couple more "buy the dips" to fail miserably.......

Bonds moving up...

Mole, I have plans for both blue and orange, er scratch that, looks like orange is the most likely scenario now that yesterday's low has been taken out (with conviction though?).

VIX also to new high...

Somehow BAC has still not broken below 15... if that breaks this thing can get much worse.

The flood gates are opening!!! YES!!!

Yes they are...

Berk I'm going in, I've got Bearish engulfing candles on a key support level for Amazon...What do you think?

RIMM below 60....58.94

Yipee!

There she goes again
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmFbux9TYsY

or if you prefer the original:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZH82l_ie9M

THAR SHE BLOWS!

I see break of Wednesday lows on both /ES and SPX.

Seems the perfect bull trap was set this time.......ETF timer just loaded up on QLD and was crowing......yesterday could be another bull graveyard.........panic selloff coming on now

Seems when the market is down Berk is hiding. He only comes out when the market is up lol

Berk is here when it's up so he can give good short ideas.

GMAK
are your EUR pivots on the futures? If so we are just above your S1

Looks like a double bottom to me...

To the tick! Got 1042.19.

Scratch that!

I agree that we need a clearer break for some confidence.

Russell and Transports still going down, but watching like hawk because of that Euro support line from GMAK

DJU,DJT,DIA,QQQQ all took out yesterdays low. Need to see continued selling this p.m. not MUTUAL FUND buying spree

Wednrsday's lows

Wow! Washed out yesterday.

whats going on - GDP up yesterday, but dow/ftse all down big-style today ??
is this up/down good for my spx puts (had increased from $17 to $23, now back to 17) ?
time to buy more puts, or wait a bit?

Believe we have 5 down into wed low. This is b of 2 or 1 of 3. Need to break 1042 spx. Big gann days M/T. If we break this p.m. then expect hard down M/T to complete an A-B-C down, then x wave into 11-9 before another A-B-C down. Do not believe this is the biggey but expect 978 if not 900.

I gotta say... this is the best bear trap yet. Hats off to all concerned.

After months of torture this is refreshing.

Can anyone confirm breach of Weds. lows on the ES? (around 12:15pm)

SPX new low according to my screen, yes.

the low is 1037.25 Did not get there yet

Thank you =)

Vix still has not made a new high grrrrrrrrr

Mole, as several people brought up in comments last night, there's an alternate count that retains its bearish potential even if we don't plunge through Wednesday's lows today. That count has Wednesday's lows as the end of wave i, yesterday's high as a of ii, and today's dip as b of ii. In that case we could turn around and head higher in c of ii - up to the 1070s or even low 1080s - before setting new lows in wave iii.

aren't the timescales all wrong for the ii to be complete ?.....the wave 1 lasted an entire week, you'd expect the abc retrace to last at least that long.....

Check out the Halloween post @ Outside The (Cardboard) Box:

http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com

Hysterical

and INDu and Nasdaq

1042 broken....

What a beauty! The Halloween scare in action.

SPX new lows..Weeeeeeee

Hold your horses, boys and girls!!!

Oh my!!!!!!

Those people who bought yesterday on those GDP #'s are screaming now lol

APOL is getting ready for the next leg down OR Finding a bottom.....

http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold...

When was the last time anyone saw this kind of ES volume at this "usually dead time" of day?

Dead time is usually at 3AM

And when the GS boys go for lunch.....not today, it seems.

1h euro/usd update - triangle forming?

http://www.screencast.com/t/3cMyRaoCbA

It recently bounced on the main long term trendline (again), and a retest of the upper line is in the cards. I would really like to see a clean break of the lower trendline (and then 1.470) just to get it over with.

Now back down at the trendline. If this fucker would break it could provide stage two of the bear boost rocket.

Tran breaking the lows a couple of days ago...

http://screencast.com/t/oPCqsKl0e

excellent, ditto the Russell.
Trans confirm the leader down

Now theres a great leading indicator.....we know what follows that.

Agreed--either a lower low or higher low will set the trend. Interesting to note that the past three dips below the 20-day MA lasted 3-4 days so we could close below the 20-day again today and still pop back up next week.

This seems too easy (the drop)--makes me nervous that the sentiment and McClellan are flashing buys.

P3's job is to give everyone false signals. By the time an ideal entry point is given it will be too late.

And how long did the sentiment and McClellan flash sells?

He had it flashing sells since mid May.

My point exactly....it will be flashing buys for a long time now....