Time To Bank Some Coin

We have not only breached that important low I pointed out this morning, we also dropped to a point where I feel more than comfortable (calling George Carlin! ) to cash out my November chips:

I simply measured the length of what I consider a textbook third wave (okay, not necessarily on the Dow, but sue me) and projected its length on the current drop. Voila – we’re right at the 61.8% fib line and this is where I say goodbye. And yes, I am holding my long term puts over the weekend – those suckers are either going to expire worthless or I’ll invite you guys to my private island party next year

2:03pm EDT: innatedc alerts us that the Trannies are at support:

If you are sitting on front month puts or short positions – now might be a good time to scale out and call it a week.

I think we all deserve a good Rammstein induced drum solo. And let’s not forget who really called the top so far – wasn’t me – it was Rammstein

Mr. VIX got a wee bit ahead of himself – expect a snap back shortly. If not today then Monday. And no, I am not hedging, I am holding my long term puts – enough of the short term games. If you feel like hedging grab some futures so you can get in/out quickly (assuming you have a futures account and enough margin).

This entry was posted on Friday, October 30th, 2009 at 1:59 pm and is filed under Elliott Wave Theory, Intraday Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

molecool

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Me_XMan

Just beginning?

"The Dow logs its worst day since April, sending it down 2.6% for the week; S&P 500 down 4% and Nasdaq down 5.1% on the week. October ends on a bad note for stocks, as today wiped out what would have been a gain for the DJIA; for the month: the Dow flat; S&P 500 down 2%; Nasdaq down 3.6%."
c2

I guess some mutual funds and hedge funds were closing their books for the year in Oct...so that accounts for a lot of the selling. I imagine they are getting redemption requests with all the talk about P3 on the horizon. I even think Cramer was getting bearish. Too crowded for me right now, that with the open interest with all the puts.

Mole was smart to take some profit today, to those that did the same today, cheers!!!
molecool

"I imagine they are getting redemption requests with all the talk about P3 on the horizon."

I keep seeing your posts and you seem to psych yourself out, mate. NOBODY was talking about P3 except for a few crazy bears. Everyone was bullish out there - this has nothing to do with redemption requests, they were filed one year ago - recently retail investors/traders have been pouring into the equities, not out.
thunda72

Yeah... and I wouldn't worry so much about those folks, anyway, cc. Sheeple who only have 401k and don't have or manage active IRA's have no clue about the truly big picture, much less about EWT.
Tronacate

Think mutual funders will ever sell if they see the bottom dropping out again? Taking two ass-whoopins would not be a good time.
JoeBear

That is exactly the psychology that is responsible for the power of wave 3's -- "I got burned once and I'm damned sure not going to let it happen again. Get me out! Sell, sell, sell!!!"
Tronacate

Yeah....I can tell some of my buddies are feeling richer again, but still lamenting...."I should have sold at the top.....I knew it was too good to be true".......they were buyers all the way down......I doubt they will be buying again.........and will unload at any sign of a major fall......give it 9000......then they will hit the exit button.....if not before.
molecool

We shall see - when it happens it'll happen fast and hard. This is NOTHING yet - NOTHING - consider this the pre-overture. You ain't seen nothin' yet.
vision_invisible

Agreed. There are many many stocks that are having large cashflow issues - REITs for example - would love to see more material namely TICKERS-TO-RIDE posted here by all. Such as HOT - this has dropped from $36 to $29ish in less than 10 days.
Tronacate

Yuppers......the orchestra is just tuning up.......wait till the maestro enters the room......
thunda72

I've got a woodie....
CorporalCarrot

Its recovering to roughly official market close now. No major move in any event.

Overall I'm glad I've basically just held my shorts over the last week. I really cannot call these intra day and intra week swings. I think from now on I stick with my long term fundamental bearish view and maybe trim and re-short portions while holding a long term core short position.

I continue to believe that Shamazon $120 is an all time can't lose short. The last time I felt so good about a short was Ebay at $120. I'm too chicken to genuinely short though so I'm just gonna hold my puts.
Tronacate

Nice phat volume......major distribution
CorporalCarrot

Anyone here got a futures account? I use spread betting here in Ireland, and I'm seeing Dow and S&P continuing to fall in AH or is it just make up?
thunda72

SPY AH is holding up pretty good. Actually now it's up to 103.75
CorporalCarrot

I'm quoted 1035.2-1036.0 on the S&P spreadbet.
centerline

dropping a little further.
molecool

Usually, that's pretty bearish - the 4:00pm - 4:15pm period offers great insights as to what the big players are thinking.
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

ES trying to make a new low AH
gsavli

EUR.USD falling. that's it
dreadwin

Did my first day trade in forever. In DRN at 101.50, stopped out at 107.67.
c2

I feel like the market held up really well today. If you take yesterdays 200 pt. rally and then subtract the 200 pt. drop today, then we were only down 50 pt. with all the fear and selling? Something isn't right here. Getting my October Puts steamrolled is still fresh in my mind right now.
string01

That 'trannies' chart is the definition of 'tits up'.
DMS425

58 is the magic number on IYT> 20% down. The rest will follow as they always do.
Tronacate

Looks set for another down leg.
Guest

i am 200% long.
roncofooddehydrator

I'm tempted but I'm going to wait until Monday morning.
thunda72

Ronco... thanks for your replies. I held off on picking up some FAS at the close. Things are just too uncertain. If it gaps down in the morning Mon. I'll consider it, but if there's a gap up, probably not, until it gets back down to the prior close, or VWAP (XLF).
thunda72

Me too.
Vardoger

IYR SQUEEZE
dreadwin

It was impressive. IYR went up 3% in a little over 1/2 an hour.
CorporalCarrot

Dow looks like putting in a doji here for the month. Hindyomen over on xtrends has pointed out that the last time it did this was october 2007, and we all know how that worked out.
upld2

McHugh midday, catastrophic Supercycle degree "C" down wave has started...........

Stocks are plunging Friday, and the odds are very high that catastrophic wave (C ) down has started. This should be a relentless decline to new lows, with a series of stock market crashes occurring over the next two years. The S&P 500 has dropped below the botttom boundary of its Ascending Expanding Bearish Wedge, and stocks are far below their bottom boundaries of Rising Bearish Wedges from March 2009. Cash will be critical for conservative investors.

We have updated annotated charts for the S&P 500 and Industrials, available now at the Australia Daily button at www.technicalindicatorindex.com

Mid-day Friday, Gold is actually performing fairly well, rising as stocks fell, down only 2.5 after being off 10 earlier. Silver, same thing, down "only" 0.31. The HUI is off 17, and that index seems to be mirroring stocks, not gold at this time. Oil is off 2.87, the Russell 2000 is down 18, the S&P 500 is down 29, with the Industrials down 242 at the time of this writing, after being down 270 points earlier. The NDX is down 44 and NASDAQ is down 54. The VIX has risen a huge 6.7 and is over 30.

The warnings have been here for a while. This is a very dangerous market at this time.
EWfan

IMO its either a flat? or maybe a bigger triangle? ..either way, the waves looks corrective..waiting for wave 5 of this drop =more downward
Tronacate

Selling that little rip.....
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Lets see if they sell this off into the close
CorporalCarrot

lol great call!!!
DistressedWineVulture

Anyone else noticing this fractal?

http://www.screencast.com/t/rRwdFXsVBov
CorporalCarrot

lol I bought some April 2010 Shamazon 100 puts earlier which are up nicely today. I don't care what happens here or next week, I ain't selling them even if they go to zero. I'll eat my proverbial hat if it doesn't fill that gap in the next two months.
Tronacate

PALM testing lod again
CorporalCarrot

looks like someone trying to get this to spike into the close. Interesting to see if it succeeds.
jaxon

where's all that money on the sidelines waiting for the dip so they can get in? you know what burns my ass are the folks on Fast Money. what a bunch of tools. did anyone catch Rosenberg telling it like it is yesterday and those a__holes chasing him off. Terenova wanted to bet him dinner anywhere in NY that the market would be up from here at the end of the year.
PRSGuitars

SPX held its key TL (sort of, weakly):

http://www.screencast.com/t/6LD96r3GEA

Just beware. Thats all Im saying (over and over)
centerline

FWIW, I wrote a post a week ago or so about watching the M1 multiplier. (google it to get the St. Louis Fed chart).

Anyhow, I proposed using some TA in looking at this data - which is in itself a suspect approach to dealing with this type of data - but I think still has relevance here. The bigger picture paints a bear flag. This falls into the "Duh" category. On a small scale, there is an inverted H&S that was playing out. I proposed the "what if?" scenerio if it failed the pattern, and M1 multiplier breaks further down.

Today the 10/21 data came out and the M1 multiplier did in fact find a new low, breaking the pattern. An all-time low in fact. I don't think this is insignificant as it reflects all the feds efforts being in vain to keep liquidity flowing. All it has done is inflate equities and delay reality.

FWIW
de3600

Fslr huge h s http://www.screencast.com/users/reggiebar/folders/Jing/media/fa160483-17fe-4096-a953-7c3212bc1d02
CorporalCarrot

If ever the bulls could do with a stick save, its today. Here it comes.
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Boy cnbc loves to talk about the VIX lol
gregn

Has teddy cracked open the scotch and sparked the Cohiba yet?
de3600

Did they call you for a guest spot appearance. :)
Vardoger

$TICK hit -137X again today. VIX is $2.50 above it's daily BB.
nepharis

Yeah, it went fucking apeshit.. I'm expecting a pretty brutal snap-back, but the damage to the bull mentality has been done, methinks.
Me_XMan

No not yet. Not until 1000 is broken and breaking down 800 would be really nice.
ultra

Yep, we have a new low and five waves and a nice channel, but I can very easily count this as a WXYXZ correction with tidy fib relationships.

Market has not tipped its hand yet for blue/orange as far as I'm concerned. Shouldn't be surprised.

On the other hand, Mr Elliott says that even if do get a new high, it should be the last.

Sold my puts about half way down expecting a bounce. Bah.
v8muscle

I think we're gonna bounce into the close. Lots of shorts need to cover. Monday might gap up and sell off. I'd sell anything above 1040, might run to 1045 tho.

And man did I nail that trade going into today. My account is up like 80% on the day, cashed out a couple positions for like 100% in case of a bounce but we'll see
raised_by_wolves

Muscle, way to kill it! My account is back to all time highs, and I've significantly reduced my exposure in anticipation of either a corrective rally or full out bear trap next week. That said, I always like to hold something over the weekend in case of a Black Monday (even though gap up Mondays occur far, far more frequently). Like you, I'm holding AAPL and AMZN.

Now that you've called a bounce into close, I have to be contrarian and call a last red candle on the five minute.
v8muscle

Glad we're on the same page, its always good to have pros on my side! Hopefully my tiny ass account will be out of the hole the rally over the summer put in it. Only a couple more days like this to go! hahah

you're probably right though seeing the action into the close, if we get any kind of "rally" it will be short lived
raised_by_wolves

Actually, I'm one of those tiny ass account guys myself. I'm sure you have pros on your side too.
newbear

Awesome, I have to say I'm lucky as well up around 60%.
Bart7

nice gains, are you trading options, 3x etf's?
v8muscle

options, have put spreads on everything. closed QQQQ and CSCO today for like 80-90% overnight, holding on to my BAC, GOOG, AAPL, JPM, AMZN over the weekend
PRSGuitars

You are killing it today (just in case anyone didn't take your word for it... haha)
PRSGuitars

The Goldman Sachs Cap&Trade Disqus Like Exchange is open for business (*ahem*)
v8muscle

Now that the POMO funds are gone something has to take its place. Its 3:30, get to liking!
thunda72

Sweet, V8! You go!
jaxon

i'll feel a whole lot better once we get past the Oct. 5 low and completely clear of the diagonal support line dating back to Aug. on SPX.
Tronacate

Tick lower high.......think we go to LOD at EOD......we'll see......
thunda72

SPY's got a nice 1 day trendline going on. It's bouncing up against it for, like, the 6th time today. This might be one of the last chances for the day for SPY to recover some....
catracho

DAX close today wiped out gains since AUG 2nd...and BIG red candle..
something to think about..
poised on the brink of the wedge..
http://www.screencast.com/t/QLMyLW1KcMZl
jaxon

here comes wave C of correction
Woolly Llama

Anyone eyeing any good longs to catch a bounce?
Me_XMan

"Stocks finally found a bottom to trade along, but at deep losses in every sector. With an hour to go, the Dow -2.7% to 9695; S&P 500 -3% to 1034; Nasdaq -2.6% to 2042. Crude -3.5%. Gold -0.6%. "
anthem

out of my AMZN shorts. Now completely long. Can someone give me a refresher course on how to play /ES long ??
raised_by_wolves

Maybe you know something I don't know, or have the market figured out better, or are just joshing. So, feel free to ignore my comment:

What!?! As much as I'm anticipating a bear lashing next week, I wouldn't go over to "the dark side" until Monday has proven it's standing on solid footing. Anthem, I hope you either make the right call or have a small position size. Damn son (or daughter?).
anthem

I got out about 12 minutes ago at 1036. Got about 5 points out of it.

Once it looked like it wasn't going to make it back into that channel (or rally essentially into the close), I figured that with such a large down move, there was going to be some signficant selling into the close from people selling to avoid margin calls, etc. .. That sort of looks to be the case as we dropped about 4 points and abandoned that small rally. . .
raised_by_wolves

Hmm, a lot of people seem to be bullish about Monday. Their reasoning is that a bounce has to occur after a slide like this.

Although my proprietary odds calculator* has given Mole's orange scenarios a combined 90% chance of occurring, it's giving a higher probability to Mole's dark orange scenario. Perhaps it's wishful thinking on my part since I haven't covered all of my puts, but I'm calling a drop Monday morning that terminates at the dotted green channel extension on my $OEX chart.

*AKA, my intuition.
PRSGuitars

Close eyes
Buy
Forget about it
Exit the trade the next day for a huge gain
anthem

PRS, thats pretty funny. Might try it but days like today - you might wan to peek every once in awhile. . .
MrBF

LOL, thats not completely right PRS. Sometimes you have to wait 2 days. :P
amokta

everything keeps falling, next the sky will fall, may be should have kept those BGZ - oh well.
dreadwin

IYR filled the gap, and has bounced up.
Me_XMan

Give me 10 more SPX points to 1025...cover and go long for bounce.
Tronacate

Down 300-350 would look very nice
Me_XMan

We haven't seen this sort of day since...a long time...
gregn

September 1st was pretty of the same caliber as today.
Me_XMan

Looking at Monday for another low and then bounce.
I still see 1200 before the year end. That's crazy.
AS2009

Your X did great ... :) wondering whether to go long on this for a bounce - thoughts ?
gregn

Here's a little chartaroo for CNX: http://screencast.com/t/p0Ojsccw4nX
gregn

I don't know if you're following those stocks that I told you about a couple days ago, but CNX looks ripe for a short from 43 down to 35 with stop above 43.20.
gregn

I think X will create a big H&S with LS as H&S from June-July H as most recent H&S and create a RS over next week. I expect X to fall to 30 while SPX falls to 1020 and then rally to 37.50ish to create a right shoulder as SPX rallies to 1060-1067 as I am expecting (as well as Mr. Mole).

http://screencast.com/t/xPJlnx1zMx8
AS2009

Yes - I see the next major support as 30 ... so if we see a break of 34 that's where we would be headed with a minor support at 32.69 .... thanks for reminding me of CNX :) ... I will take a look at it and post my thoughts as well ...

Need to set all my triggers this weekend .... I will also be researching some ideas and posting them ...
Captain Obvious

Market Crash Monday? This is all too funny coming the day after POMO ends.
molecool

Yeah, what a coincidence, huh? :-)
vidosole

Mole, really great work and path projections. I have followed your chart from the day before yesterday and should tell you - so far no complain. Maybe even need to send you some flowers..or bottle of good scotch….
Me_XMan

Looking at SPX 1025 for 38% retrace.
My fib: 978.51-1101.36
AS2009

Holding my short BAC calls .... I see this falling this 14.17 or so ... before I buy them back lower ...
vision_invisible

short BAC calls...nice .... remember "they" will intervene on this stock once the hedge funds knock it down a bit
AS2009

Yes - this was only because I had huge losses on my Nov 19 calls ... so turned it into a bear call spread ... to recoup some of my losses ... I am thinking to cover this at 14.17 or thereabouts ... watching carefully ...as many are expecting the mkt to bounce ... incl Mole dearest :)
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

New lows coming enjoy
Tronacate

That's what all the bulls were saying with each push........lol
Tronacate

Now is not the time to be tentative and get shook out with any uptick
EWfan

looks like a triangle..suggesting a wave iv of this drop today..suggesting one more down leg (wave v) to come after..
Tronacate

Nice........I thought the Rut might count a complete 5 on the daily......looks like it might extend,.......or I can't count.......a very real possibility
Vardoger

The question becomes whether we get it into the close or on Monday morning when the LT/ IT bulls want out now that there weekly looks like shit.

Question for the board~ any favorite sectors to go long?
Tronacate

What would be sweet is some bearish follow through for monday........very real possibility.......especially in light of the GS report of very little "cash on the sidelines"
Vardoger

I'd prob buy a pullback just after the open unless some real shit hits the newswire this weekend. Lots of gyrations, I'm with Mole on this one. VIX is clear heads up that we have gone far fast IMHO. I don't have the balls to take a counter-trend long over the weekend but after seeing emotion flip three consecutive days...
thunda72

Yeah... I was thinking of picking something up for the bounce Monday, but now I'm not sure. I'll probably just sit it out and watch my long-term puts grow.
centerline

Other than a couple of equity plays on TA, I am doing the same.
AS2009

Which ones you looking at Center ?
centerline

Oops, forgot to mention UUP long. Small position as well. Staying at least 50% cash over the weekend. The rest is long-term shorts. I am searching today for some good candidates for next week. Will of course share everything I come up!
centerline

I jumped on some Nov EL puts this morning. Didn't spend alot of time doing my DD here - looks to me like a false breakout and ready to close gaps below.
thunda72

Yeah... I saw that it was blowing up. Check the Bloomberg site or Clipsyndicate for a clip detailing what was going on with EL, they were talking about it earlier.
centerline

Thanks thunda, I will check it out!
thunda72

Yeah... if we get another leg down into the close I'll close a couple more Dec puts.
Me_XMan

Yup.
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

I think they are going to sell this off at the end of the day......
Tronacate

Yah....me too.......a little consolidation here......
LostIllini

closed my APOL puts and used proceeds to buy AA calls, not brave enough to take my DEC XLF hedge off the table....
Tronacate

Also took off half DEC RIMM 60s........
Vardoger

Anyone charting the $$$? Looks crazy bullish to me, confirm?
Tronacate

Banked some green on Nov putz......holding all the rest longer dated stuff.......any and all
raised_by_wolves

I love it when Mole's wave counts fit my channel lines like a custom-made leather glove (not that I own one of those).

Check out my 30-day $OEX chart with trading plan:

http://screencast.com/t/jAoqw2Qa

In case you're wondering how I drew these channel lines, here's the 1-year view:

http://screencast.com/t/tfVZl9O8D

It may not be a perfect channel, but it's fits the price action better and better as time progresses (e.g. look at yesterday and today) and, well, it works good enough for me and my trading account.
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

damm LVS still alittle green
thunda72

They were just on Bloomberg talking up LVS a little. The analysts projections for MGM, however, were grim.
dollar

How big is the coming CRE crash? "Huge," says Wilbur Ross, who recommends "extreme caution" before putting money in. "All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously. Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate - the return that investors are demanding to buy a property - are going up."
amokta

last question from me, should i sell BGZ at close, and buy in again monday - just making $200 profit right now (measly i know)
dollar

if you are asking me, i'm sorry i don't know the answer for you
amokta

sorry was general question. Good night all - thanks for all the info on puts over last 2 months (pity my broker charges so much)
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

your call, but there can be a gap monday, either way
amokta

ok, im going to sell - $400 profit actually (still measly)
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

the decision should always be yours

BTW did you check nasdaq?
amokta

no - whats up with nasdaq (i can only cope with one index), it it showing informative?
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

often it is easier to count and less prone to manipulation than s&p
amokta

ok - will keep an eye on nasdaq
roncofooddehydrator

Does anyone know where I can get historical stock data on either 1 hour or 2 hour increments?
roscoe_casita

I'd like to know as well =)
thunda72

I'm scaling out of some of my SPY Dec puts (15%). They don't make me feel as good as my Mar puts...
Bart7

Cramer turning bearish, hmmm....
Me_XMan

Is Cramer getting smarter or we're getting dumber?
It's not good when this guy calling to sell.
elliott_surfs

Love the dialogue between him and the new Brit dude Simon...hilarious.

(Also, if anyone can remember when Steve Liesman stopped screaming GREEN CHUTES, please let me know =p)
Tronacate

I believe that the Russell and Cocoa are great indicators of where we are going........Cocoa is (finally) breaking down and has put in what appears to be an important high
thunda72

PNC is down 5% today. it didn't make my re-load target of 53.36, but after any bounce we see it could be a tasty treat.... It had a hard pop 6 trading days ago...
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

http://screencast.com/t/gXF5QgkcMW
tradejane

This song comes to mind :) :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIvkdNjmA-A&feature=fvw
ClutchShorter

Next Friday, the employment figures will roll out. These past few months, the market rallied on good news, bad news, and no news. I think we have turned and when they see unemployment >10%, it will only add fuel to this selloff. Wait for pullback Monday/Tuesday, then load up like a #$#@$#@
z12run

I just wonder how much the government will manipulate the number to keep it under 10%?
amokta

load up like a 'crazy'?
ClutchShorter

YUP =), SPX under 1000 sometime in November and under 900 by Dec.
amokta

this put buying seems easy money at the moment, but the 'compliance officer' at the brokers warned me that on average put buyers loose money, while writers make money. (i only buy long-dated puts, as i cant handle all the greek jiggery-pokery)
Me_XMan

Noooo. You gonna have Benny going nets.

Time To Bank Some Coin

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