I’m awake and so is the market.

Berk here.

Not much has changed in the count, and it doesn’t look like much will. Pushing up in what appears to be “iii” of “C” of “II” right now. In fact, $NDX is pushing that upper channel on my TOS chart. Also notice that we are pushing right into the resistance/target zone. Also note the ugly divergence that will almost undoubtedly remain.

NDX update

We are overbought in the STO, and divergent but pushing overbought in the RSI. I’m just expecting some 4th wave consolidation here, but be wary if we start to drop off too hard.

That’s it for the minute, I’ll be back with some more charts in a second. In the meantime, look for stocks that are up 3-5% and get ready to short those puppies.

Some of us are in this trade from various levels. It has been good so far, but short term we should be prepared for a bounce…

DTG

DTG running low on momentum

FWLT approaching reload time…

FWLT is at reload point for Berk

Here’s a quick grab from the Zero. I know most of y’all get it, but notice this nice divergence forming.

Zero Lite divergence.

One final thought for the moment. 10:30 is one of the most common reversal times. I am sure PRS would concur. Often times during P1 I had noticed that the market had a tendency to reverse it’s rally by 10:30am. If it didn’t do it then, we would typically rally for the day (or at least into 2:30). Be prepared if we don’t get a big drop from here that we will likely chop before one final push up.

Another update with the “PRS super channel 133% hiding in the bushes waiting to smack your ass reversal level.” Notice it on the $NDX in target zone with divergences. Still in the reversal time window (after 10:45 is becomes much less likely). Still only looking for more chop until the day ends, but we have to take things for what they are worth right now…

NDX in TOS

Update: If you are a stalker, check out the low volume large price moves on a number of these… Given the low $VIX they should be giving pretty nice entries.

NK, BK, RIMM, BGC, ATI, JRCC, X, FLR, STJ, FPL, EXC, SCHN, AAP, AMAG, AZO, BCR, CEPH, CHL, DNB, DRI, FAST, FSLR, GENZ, GPRO, HES, ILMN, LMT, LSTR, MOS, NAV, NUVA, TDW, BG. Also keep an eye on DTG, NIHD, and FWLT (not system entries, but they are dead). We are loading up on puts on these puppies…

Off to lunch… Will catch up with y’all later.

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 5th, 2009 at 11:06 am and is filed under Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

orth

Hey Berk, Thanks for the charts and analysis. I really appreciate it. Just when I'm learning the evil ways, I'm bummed you guys might fold it up.

orth

I think I hear an echo in this canyon!

amokta

Dow 10,000 hat makes a return !

berkshire

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¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12442#disqus_thread

Skål!

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Teddy bear and i are fully short now. We are in the March ,June and Dec puts. Lotto play is BAC Jan 2011 2.50 puts.....

gregn

R:R on that play is pretty good @ .1

Tronacate

Same lotto ticket I bought....lol

gregn

We have some negative momentum divergence, unfortunately I do not have Zero to check for divs on that: http://screencast.com/t/L2cORcOJW

Tronacate

Got this bad feeling the "improved" employment is a temporary bear market bounce. Next comes small business layoffs who tend to be more loyal to employees

AudioTactics

I like selling up here or at the end of the day but what's the point with the payroll number tomorrow?

Too much risk to hold a short through the number imo...

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

let's see if I inspire the market

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gqT6En2O78

gregn

Even if the market was not inspired, it has inspired me.

itsgold

UUP back up

gregn

I'm expecting a violent pullback in near term. Order for NOV 100s at .43 waiting to be filled.

Vardoger

Any reason?

gregn

I really do not think we are going to get two inverse H&S in a row on SPX in a month. Mental stop above 1067. I didn't get the fill.

gregn

Dartboard method.

Vardoger

One of my favorites ;) no doubt in my mind those are ITM between now and expiry, maybe I'm trying to be too cute..

Still, waiting for dollar to show some life or bonds to catch a bid... something

Tronacate

Stock pulled back again and ADX dropping again.....

Tronacate

NIHD......fake breakout on the coil....interesting

centerline

Next stop 1071. Don the tin foil hats time.

gregn

I see 1067 as pretty major resistance before 1071.

centerline

Nice call. My ass crack doji pattern is still technically in play.

bshah

so, the jobless claims to come at 512K ( soooooo less than expectation ) is this good, and trimming jobs to show green on balance sheets is powerful retail signs, that market will go 180pts.. what the fuckidy fuck...

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

everybody take your motion sickness pills, it's about to go bumpy

>EDIT maybe the market takes a hint

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gqT6En2O78

DMS425

Has anybody looked into the TBF. Calls only go out to June 2010. If the dollar gets killed or these puts get murder do to a market raie. It may save your arse.

centerline

I think SPX is painting an "ass crack" pattern today. Just need to round off that right butt-cheek.

(sorry. this is boring right now. zzzzz).

Joe8888

Update on GLD Chart Channel:

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder...

berkshire

I am still looking for that fabulous "blow-off top," but I am not seeing it yet...

Skål!

Schwerepunkt

Scoops:

13:23 UUP PowerShares DB USD Bull to temporarily suspend the issuance of additional Creation Baskets (22.49 -0.02) -Update-

On November 3, 2009, PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (the "Fund"), a series of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Trust (the "Trust"), announced in a Current Report on Form 8-K that 6,600,000 of its Shares registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") were available for purchase by the Fund's Authorized Participants. As stated in its current prospectus, the Fund creates and redeems Shares in blocks of 200,000 Shares called "Creation Baskets" and "Redemption Baskets," respectively. Only Authorized Participants may purchase or redeem Creation Baskets or Redemption Baskets. As of November 5, 2009, the Fund issued all of the remaining Shares to its Authorized Participants. As a result of these issuances, the Fund will temporarily suspend the issuance of additional Creation Baskets until the registration statement on Form S-3 (333-162819, 333-162819-05) which was initially filed on November 2, 2009 and registers an additional 100,000,000 Shares of the Fund has been cleared by the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the National Futures Association. The Fund will issue a subsequent Current Report on Form 8-K to announce the effectiveness of the Registration Statement and its ability to resume offering Creation Baskets to its Authorized Participants. The suspension of the issuance of Creation Baskets has no effect on the ability of Authorized Participants to redeem Redemption Baskets. Any forward-looking statements in this Current Report are based on expectations of DB Commodity Services LLC, the managing owner of the Trust and the Fund ("DBCS") at this time.

DesertEagle

Thank you marketmakers, again, for shredding the VIX. On your low volume, pointless rally. Congratulations.

Tronacate

NIHD.......ADX below 8.......still coiled

gregn

Trendline still in effect: http://screencast.com/t/3b3r7blIR

Schwerepunkt

Equities ahead of the EUR. Not sure what it will mean. Earlier today, it led to a 6/7-pt selloff on ES.

Scoops

UUP halted.

Schwerepunkt

Wow, What's going on?

Scoops

Not saying. Anyone else have info?

Schwerepunkt

I've not seen anything on the news feed.

standard_and_poor

Where are Keirsten, Alpha, Katzo07, Annamall, Fujisan, Blindsquirt, LordMouthBatten etc., etc?

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

some at SOH, some at OB, others MIA

p.s. check an old comment by them, open disqus profile and see where was the last place they posted

p.p.s anna droped by a while ago

standard_and_poor

Thanks Hamster you're a good man.

________________________________
ome at OB, others MIA

p.s. check an old comment by them, open disqus profile and see where was the last place they posted

p.p.s anna droped by a while ago

Link to comment: http://disq.us/33328

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Stainless_Steel_Hamster

don't mention it, did you find all those you were looking for?

Scoops

And you thought Amazon had a high P/E. Check out this Denninger post. I'll post the meat of it:

S&P 500 Statistics
As of October 30, 2009

Total Market Value ($ Billion) 9,124
Mean Market Value ($ Million) 18,248
Median Market Value ($ Million) 7,635
Weighted Ave. Market Value ($ Million) 75,767
Largest Cos. Market Value ($ Million) 344,431
Smallest Cos. Market Value ($ Million) 642
Median Share Price ($) 31.800
P/E Ratio* 137.98

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/158...

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

that's what I said, at 60 it's a bargain

that and keeping your money under the matress, much lower risk and basicaly the same return (as per dividends)

Nightwind

Looks like major divergences on the daily on Starbucks, could drop hard

Woolly Llama

Earnings after close

v8muscle

added a rimm dec 50/45 put position

amokta

folks, is all this talk of P3 lunacy? we have made a higher low, and most likely will make a higher high next. When i think of annamall, she seemed happy trading whatever the tape was, whether up,down or sideways, rather than trying to go for the 'big trade' bet of a lifetime. Maybe that is the way to go?

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

there is "no way to go" YOU (and each and every one of us) should look, study, make a roadmap (for whatever timefram you choose) and trade as much or as little as you see fit.

Then you live with the coin or the losses YOU make

you may thank those that helped YOU learn, but you don't thank trades and you don't blame them either.

It's YOUR success (or falure)

As for P3... maybe P3 has happened alreay, maybe it will take place now, maybe in the future, maybe never. Where are you now? That's what you have to sense and them act (or choose not to act)

I already said nostradamus went for a coffee, the pythia retired, the sybil is MIA.

As Sarte would say, you are condemned to be free.

p.s. I'm not on the P3 will begin shortly train personaly, but I believe and choose to act on my analisys that postulates aditional down impulses and lower lows

PRSGuitars

And you read Sarte.... that's fitting! Way to go (another of my favorites)

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

long time no reading him (his books 20 years ago... but I did read one of his plays 6 years ago "le diable et le bon dieu")

But I prefered Camus

PRSGuitars

Hilarious, that's the other one i was just looking at on my bookshelf (the plague, not a francophile so i can't take in l'stranger in original language)... funny that I mentioned dystopic or otherwise existentialist lit, never thought it'd go this far, but awesome that we're on the same page, metaphorically

Vardoger

P3 is probably going to last two years. I'm fine selling to you up here, I think we close next week nasty. It takes two to make a market, unless there are no bids of course ;)

cc

What are you basing the 2 year time frame on for the length of P3?

Vardoger

17 months for P1, 7 months for P2*, just an estimate for P3. Besides the basic time concept I think credit markets are so fucked, I think the whole landscape of production in America has to change. It's a really bad hangover, the days of 0% lending, 2nd houses and cars have resulted in massive defaults that spiral and will lead to regulation that will hamper future growth. Excess of inventories needs to be worked through. We'll see, for now I picked up some puts and hedged long /es. Not really trying to look past next week!

jaxon

the reason there is no velocity of money is that there is no incentive for banks to lend. they have reserves with guaranteed interest coming from the government. why would they want to lend. i would want more reserves so that i could get more guaranteed interest. and by the way, i'm not giving the money back unless you force me to do so.

Tronacate

And who wants more debt anyways? Loan to buy little Johnny a new iphone?

jaxon

actually, ithink it was 16 months down and 8 up. i've been banging the W.D. Gann drum regarding his price and time squared. see attached chart. the price and time have squared and if we apply his 50% rule we should end up aomewhere near 550 on SPX in about 16 months, give or take. (-:

http://www.screencast.com/t/kwCsoINbUiIz

BTW, could not agree with you more regarding the larger picture. we are so totally f---ed and i am continually amazed at the level of denial by the general populace. it's almost as though everyone is hypnotized or something. what don't people get about there is absolutely NO WAY we are getting out of this bag without a MAJOR amount of pain. we are, quite literally, underwater with our government digging the hole deeper. WTF!?

Vardoger

Thanks for the chart and commentary, no need for splitting hairs. 16 months fine by me ;)

Rightside_ot_trade

The hypmotized comment really rings true; most have been hypmotized by Keynsian propaganda that is put out there. I talk to people all the time to get their viewpoint, most are 'hoping' things will get better. I am also seeing quite a bit of anger amongst normally rational upbeat people. We'll see how attitudes changes in 'the hopeful' when the realization sets in that they won't recover their 2008 losses.

jaxon

you know, i'm not sure which will win out, deflation or inflation, perhaps
both in their respective time, but we may be witnessing the end of our way
of life. Schiff likes to point out that when our currency was backed by
gold we could control it's value. steal all the gold, as FDR did, reset the
price and peg the dollar to it. his point is that this is why inflation
should be the outcome of the Fed's actions. Keynesian worked back then. he
thinks the Fed can just print as much money as they want. Prechter does not
believe this argument works in the face of the ocean of debt we are under
and the spectre of the bond market. if the Fed were to do as Schiff
suggests it would destroy itself as well as collapse the bond market which
would lead to deflation anyway.

let's face it, either way we are completely screwed. there are two ways to
repudiate debt. inflate or default. my thought is that we will eventually
be forced to default. the money that we are borrowing has been going into
buying treasuries not building an infrastructure that can generate a ROI
which would allow us to pay off the debt. this is what we did in the 19th
century when we were in hock to England and France. politicians are
cowards, stupid, or both, with the selfish interest of getting themselves
re-elected so they don't want to deliver the bad news. citizens will not
want to give up entitlements, or the quality of life they've grown
accusomed to, in order to pay off debt. so default it is.

can you imagine what the Fed & Treasury policy is doing to the folks who
are living on fixed income. can you imagine what the interim elections are
going to be like?
actually, by then, we may be living in a completely different world, eh?

who know? maybe they can keep the balls in the air and walk that tightrope
a bit longer.

Rightside_ot_trade

Yes in 1792 the states had a deficit to our european creditors of 28% of the yearly expenditures. The Coinage Act of that year was enacted and also the unanimous vote of Jefferson's recommendation to adopt the Spanish silver dollar as our nations first official monetary unit.
Once the fiat 'Continental' currency was eliminated by these actions, the business expansion in the country was unprecedented. The debt was eliminated by 1802, replaced with a surplus that was almost equal to the governments total spending.

jaxon

thank you. so, where do we go from HERE in your opinion?

Rightside_ot_trade

This is a subject I often think about, not for trading so much as for what actions to take as far a living etc.
Your answer that we are screwed is where I always end up. Screwed in terms of the next decade. Still trying to figure out this big puzzle. Things could get much worse for many families. Ultimately a solution will surface. The solution that seems to surface throughout history the most often is of course conflict.
If inflation is the path, then conflict for resources including food.
If deflation and debt repudiation, then tough years followed by something better. Maybe back to using those gold and silver coins....

jaxon

Like you, I struggle with this for I have young children. I would love to be optimistic about the near and medium term outlook but can see no way out of this situation. Unlike past there is no bubble to inflate.

raised_by_wolves

Curious: What are you doing to prepare? Will you be brushing up on your hunter-gather skills?

jaxon

what's the point? brushing up? that is amusing. perhaps i will change my
name to Yoder and move closer to our Amish friends, eh?

actually, growing a garden and canning materials is not such a bad idea.

how about you? is the economy just starting to get traction from all the
"stimulus" and companies, especially small business, will begin hiring so
that the 20+% unemployed can begin consuming and paying taxes and borrowing
again?

centerline

debt must be recognized and dealt with. right now it is an attempt to hide and ignore the debt via accounting rules, smoke and mirrors. this why things will end badly. just a matter of time. we need to stay strong - keep some powder dry - and be careful (hedge as needed) - so that we are ready for "when" things change. IMO.

v8muscle

I'm counting down the days until Jan 1st when MTM is repealed

Vardoger

My friend defaulted on a CITI card and when he pulled his credit report for a new lease he found out that they have not been reporting his non-payments.

Also, banks are still holding the foreclosures with the hope of getting higher prices.

In both instance they are scared shitless to report it on paper. It's a joke and to think it can last forever is just foolish.

centerline

forgot to mention that was all for the changes in accounting rules earlier this year because I was seriously long the banks from March! Now that I am short the market overall it seems those rules I think are partly why things are propped up in the financial sector. Ironic isn't it?

v8muscle

look at the russell. lower low and this is the flag

amokta

thanks - i only ask questions as a way to understand. might get me some BGZ shares !

Scoops

The way to go is whatever way YOU want to go, not anyone else.

amokta

true, but surely worth learning from others?

Scoops

A bet? Couldnt be further from the truth. Some trade lagging indicators, wavers trade leading indicators. A gamble is not knowing what one is doing, not having a system, trading plan, or discipline to follow it through.

amokta

that must be me then! - well trying to learn along the way.

Scoops

Dumped all my longs. Entered more shorts.

standard_and_poor

Increased longs to 77% waiting for pullback to 1047 to reevaluate.

JACKTRADE

Going long? what are you basing it on? and how high?

standard_and_poor

Elliot wave count has been bullish since March in my humble opinion, no target yet.

________________________________

JACKTRADE wrote, in response to standard_and_poor:

Going long? what are you basing it on? and how high?

Link to comment: http://disq.us/332th

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Tronacate

NIHD is in a beautiful low ADX coil on 5 min.......below 9.........let's see which way this baby breaks

Wave_Surfer

Another half percent up and wave C of 2 will hit 38.2% retracement on my IWM graph.

Onorio

Short ES @ 1062

Might get one more push above 1065 but we should be close to top.

Schwerepunkt

You are short ES 1062, or you went short ES when SPX hit 1062? ES hit 1062 at 1100-1115h this morning, with only 36 contracts trading hands. Hasn't hit that high since then.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

in [iv] of iii? don't think so

gsavli

Like watching paint drying. Now what, is this a bullish flag, or will it just tumble down at the EOD? Let's see.

Vardoger

Keep getting higher lows. There hasn't been much selling pressure, until we come into some resistance I don't see why it shouldn't just melt up. Run those stops.

fuw

Looks like the euro/usd has established itself above the chop zone (ie above the 1.485-1.486 area) where it has been moving since 27/10. This is obviously an important tipping point if you look back one the action since teh middle of september.

1h chart with some lines I'm looking at:
http://www.screencast.com/t/GvDbfHvpxn

amokta

I dont believe it - dow up mega - bull market back (or is this a case of 'stretching the tape' as baminvestor.com puts it)

PRSGuitars

Eur might've just bottomed at 20 hourly sma. Might be headed higher. I think I might be done for the day, depends on how much participation comes in around 1:00-1:30. Be back in a bit. Good lucks boys and girls!

Tronacate

The Cocoa chart is very telling.......commodity bubble might be bursting........might be heading for all things moving together again

Rightside_ot_trade

Agreed. Looking like we may be in a 3rd wave down from top in October. Would like to see it accelerate down to prove that, as I am short the Dec contract

Tronacate

Me too......

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

I wish there was Jan 2011 VIX options....

PRSGuitars

Something is rumbling in the jungle. These selloffs from 1130 or so lately have been like Citizen EcoDrive watches (unstoppable!) until 1pm EST or so. Look at the past two weeks... they're brutal... so I'm only long 1 little batch of /NQ, still short core SPY puts (like a 50% position). Not trying to get cute, just hanging on in case we pop/start to rise again and I'm unprepared. Gonna lay down for a few but thought I'd offer my observation that these selloffs tend to last for a while...

Alternatively, the volume on it thus far has been weak and I don't expect it to be anything but a bump in the road to 1066 at least (at which point i will be more skeptical). Arguably I should be adding to puts but time and VIX are also in my consideration (and come to think of it, VIX has retraced exactly 50% of its move up thus far... that's interesting...). I will likely be adding on any substantial push higher as I expect VIX to get to at least 24.95 before blastoff, but like I said, dont want to be the guy on the sidelines.

Didn't add to puts just yet (not trying to be the guy who gets caught waiting for 'one last push' though, either) but did clear my longs @ 1061.5 (woo!) and short hedges at a slightly better price. Now long the leader (/NQ) and short the /ES via SPY puts so, on the right side of things again.

DJT chart for Berk/Joe8888: http://screencast.com/t/uTIIFPaMao

So far this was just a SPY daily VWAP retest.

Also, 1062.25 is a 50% of the move down, actually, so, let's keep that in mind. 1071 = 61.8%.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

what I don't like is that vertical long candle that pushed tranys beyond a reasonable inversion.... been there done that

Tronacate

Picked up some Jan 2011 SRS 60 calls......

fa_q

Wow. In the epic meltdown of last fall SRS went up less than 4x. You need 6x+ for those to be ITM. Good luck!

Vardoger

Nice fill too, those things could be 100X next year..

I went with IYR JAN 32's. I'm going to write down a note, let's compare % gains in a few weeks. There are going to be numerous sell-offs in the next two years and I'm curious which products perform the best!

fa_q

100x? Only if they reverse split SRS and forget to change the options... If the exact same meltdown from last fall occurs from here and SRS performs the same, it will top out at less than 40.

I do like the IYR play but 32 may be a little too far OTM over the holiday season. If I was to buy puts I would buy Dec 38s now for around a buck. Then after Xmas I would reload with March puts. But I don't buy options so I could be all screwy.

Good luck!

Vardoger

We'll see, I certainly think SRS can see triple digits by the end of 2010 but maybe I'm crazy. Obviously the 100X is an foolish extreme but my point was that an increase in the VIX and collapse in commercial real estate over time could have an exponential effect on the product. You are right though, I used IYR because SRS has fallen too far for my liking. FAS is a 3X which was around 12 at it's low but reached 94 in only 7 months of steady uptrend. If we see the unwind that some are projecting which will come quick and hard, I don't think it's all that crazy to see SRS back to where it was last fall.

fa_q

FAS had a reverse 1-5 split from 8 to 40. So it only went to 90 from 40. Only, of course is silly to say, but in the context it works. It didn't go from 12 to 94.

It's virtually mathematically impossible for SRS to get back to 100 unless every component of IYR goes bankrupt. As I posted before, IYR is going to drop like mad soon - I short it directly. But people have to understand the pricing nature of SRS and what is and isn't attainable. When SRS went from 75 to 295, IYR went from 70 to 25. In other words, IYR dropped 65% and SRS went up 400%. If IYR were to retest their lows, it will drop less than 50%. That puts SRS' max in the 30 range. Maybe Armegeddon hits IYR and it drops 80% but you're talking about playing a very small likelihood. Even at 80% loss, SRS doesn't hit 100.

The 2x and 3x are so misunderstood. Stick with the IYR like you've done and don't get too far OTM and you'll bank it.

Vardoger

I stand corrected. I'm not a 2x or 3x trader and thank you for pointing the split out on FAS, everything you've said makes a lot of sense.

Question for you: would you rather have XLF 12 puts or SKF calls in the 30's?

fa_q

No worries, we're all here to learn from each other. Nothing better than intellectual discussion! Your XLF/SKF comparison isn't quite apples and oranges. XLF to go from 14.26 to 12 is 15.8% which would put SKF at 30.42. So I wouldn't go much higher than 30 strike v. 12 strike. I don't trade options so that is really a personal choice. A quick look shows Dec SKF 30s at 1.16/1.23 and XLF 12s at .12/.13.

Here's one reason I hate options - if you buy the SKF calls the moment you buy them you're down 6%. That's like buying a house or a new car. You're immediately down that money. You could say the puts on XLF are worse because you're actually down a higher % but it's a penny. The other factor I would look at is OI and availability of getting in and out. The XLF puts have OI of 50k and the SKF have 154. That's a HUGE difference.

It's really personal choice. Someone who knows options better than me should chime in. My expertise is in IYR, not options!

Vardoger

Thank you, you answered it perfectly. I like the SRS discussion, it's dangerous practice but I might be inclined to sell some OTM calls on it at some point...

Nightwind

fa_q...How does volitility play into 2x-3x inverse etfs? If VIX gets into the 50+ area, will that not accelerate their performance? Thx

Schwerepunkt

There is a compounding effect. Inverse ETFs perform best when a given price decline occurs over a longer timeframe, rather than a shorter one.

Nightwind

Thanks, I usually swing trade them

funkypenguin

For those interested in fundamentals out there (probably not a lot on this board) - pay attention to the retailers same store sales reports. If a retailer didn't beat same store sales from last October, that's very bearish. I work for one of the world's largest retailers and Oct 08 was a bloodbath for just about everyone as consumers were responding to financial panic and simply stopped buying. It should be a no brainer to have better comparable sales reported for Oct 09

Should be, ahem, an interesting (and telling) Christmas season

Nightwind

I always trade on fundamentals.....USA, corporations, & citizens are in hock to their eyeballs and we're printing money like Zimbawe. I'm a very bullish bear.

PRSGuitars

Excellent point, penguin (and love the name). Thanks for reminding us. Any idea when same store sales data comes out off the top of your head?

funkypenguin

Same store sales came out today for most retailers

My thoughts are be cautious going long anything like ARO, ARE which reported disastrous same store sales. Look at KSS and JCP - more bad data.

I this wacky market who knows but the fundamentals are not encouraging for these companies based upon this months's data

PRSGuitars

Thanks for the update -- always a pleasure to have outside knowledge on the
board. Bravo! Keep us informed if you have your ear to the ground -- my
aunt is in JCP and I will be talking to her about it later this evening.
I'm sure she will be thankful for your heads up!

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

yes we do like fundamentals, fundamental end up driving actions and reactions (at least setting them in motion). Most people here would have tried finding counts that that said "it's over" if there was a decent time with P/E below 10

Publius Federali

Fundamentals? What are they?

Interesting that RTH is down on the day with the SPX up 14 points.

Rightside_ot_trade

Good point, check out TRLG yesterday and AEO, ARO, HOTT today after results were announced...

Tronacate

I don't always label using the right letters, numbers ,etc......but it's easy to see a nice count on the RUT

http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde...

bobthehorse

Off to Bonfire Night on the Common. Farewell.

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

bought bac 2011 puts... at .10 and .11 :)

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Damm option makers wont give up an edje on those DEC 2010 puts grrrrrr

Publius Federali

They won't fill me on anything either. Lets just be patient and see if it comes to us.

molecool

Good flls are hard to get by this morning - I think the MMs are anticipating a final push up - be patient.

newbear

Patience? I've been patient for months!!!

cc

I see some potential for this trend to play out:

Chart

*Market looks to be consolidating at these levels
*Tons of November Puts OI
*Potential for 9-to-1 up day
*Fed continues to pump liquidity
*Will the market be able to climb the wall of worry?

Studio 89

PFCB looks good to short

gregn

Looks like downtrend line held admirably in SPX.

charles_smith

No offense intended to those shorting as I am a heavily-scarred Bear myself, but I am sensing that DJI 10,700--that good old 50% retrace of the entire move--is like a magnet. I would not even count out 11,100 (the 200-day SMA) on a last crazy spike of madness, but I'm getting the ugly feeling 10,700 could be in the cards here. Just a guess/intuition.

berkshire

I don't think that you will be offending anyone by offering an opinion earnestly. It's the folks that force them upon us as if they are god's gift to financial forecasting that ruffle feathers. Honestly, I think 10,700 is a little far, but I didn't about 6 weeks ago. We have some solid signs of break-down now, and just need a few more to really confirm the downtrend.

Thanks for the posting and potential head's-up...

Skål!

Duuuuuude

I don't believe we trade outside (higher) of the triangle highlighted. http://screencast.com/t/Kn2RANy2eD

Joe8888

Hi Berk

Hope all is well with You !!

A quick 60 Min,chart on the Broker Dealers:

http://screencast.com/t/i0QLoYNg2

Russell 1000:

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder...

Stay Cool Berk...

berkshire

LOVE the bearish back-test on the $RUT. Looks gorgeous on the $INDU chart too. Thanks for popping by. Come back often, we've been missing your analysis...

Skål!

Joe8888

Thx Berk.

I may do that..when your Around !

Transport Daily :::

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder...

Cheers

chaugner

I agree 10700 is a bit far but I sense some unfinished business at 10300 for the DOW. If we do end up breaking the 1070 SPX - I think we may make a run for that target. Who knows - I am only trading very short term at the moment. Too skured to be a bear or bull in this market.

berkshire

Refresh for a list of stocks that Mole and I have been buying...

Skål!

psycho_puppies

"Refresh for a list of stocks that Mole and I have been buying..." I'm confused... buying puts?

berkshire

YES buying puts. Sorry. Buying Puts...

Skål!

molecool

Hehe - you just love to freak 'em out :-)

edwardo_62

Ya'll do complicate things. The kiss back to the trendline on the SPX is where this *&%! is headed. Short it between 1065 and 1075, with a stop at 1075 cash.

fa_q

Very tempted to start building a position near the end of the day today but I still like 1070. I agree with Berk on the count but my opinion is that it's a little slower. I expect 4 tomorrow and 5 on Monday. Or 4 into the close and 5 tomorrow. Any ramp today finishes off 3 in my opinion. Will probably just sit on my hands until Sunday night or Monday. Of course all of that is subject to change in an instant. But I'm not expecting the rollover like yesterday. Maybe a headfake though. The 20dma still beckons. The tricky part is, that hasn't halted an advance since late June. Ever since then we've just run it over and gone straight to the top Bollinger. But bears need the daily stochs to reset while the 15/30/60 trend back down. That's what I'll look for in the 4/5 pattern.

PRSGuitars

Thanks for the thoughts, Fa_q. I hope you know you're up there with the 1-3% of traders I speak to against whom I know I do not ever want to trade (ie, I really respect your voice in this mess).

Agreed on the timing. Looking to take the usual suspects, NQ and ES, or interested in outperformance to the downside by taking the weakest of the bunch if you can? Im always worried about TFs less liquid nature/the opportunity to get busted up (as I was short NQ today against a larger ES position and it caught up, almost raked me when NQ started to see upside).

fa_q

Appreciate the kind words. No pressure, right :)

Just the usual suspects. If you're looking outside of the futures you can basically short the IYR component list. That thing is going down like a horny girl on prom night. Usually don't mess around with TF simply for the fact you mentioned and you can't get out if you have to in the middle of the night. NQ is bad enough. I wouldn't hesitate to buy some TWM if you're looking for an equity play rather than a futures play.

I will point out that there's something really bothering me in the charts and I can't put my finger on it. It almost feels as if the rollover is going to be dragged out. By that I mean this SHOULD tip over between 1070-1080 and go down. But there's something telling me this is an ABC and we're only seeing the A right now which means the 1070ish top would be pushed higher in a C after a B correction. Someone much smarter than me can surely tell me I'm wrong, but that is really bugging me here.

berkshire

I was hoping for slower too. And we could chop all the way into Friday, but I'd rather be reading and on the ball than scrambling when the time is upon us...

Skål!

catracho

looks like NDX could test underside of wedge before it's done .so around 1740.. nuff to scare some bears! Should be used to it by now! Back in the channel means more upside..(hope not)
http://www.screencast.com/t/DWVn9FdE

Schwerepunkt

I see us following the pattern from 06/23-07/01, up along the mid-channel 2-4 more days, and then down culminating in an IT bottom on 07/08. A simple percentage study applied to ES now would have a top at ~1076 and a bottom at ~999.

bobthehorse

If it does go through this level, will have to chase it tomorrow. I would not go short here, just flatten off a long temporarily.

bobthehorse

no, we have trimmed a bit just now. I am looking to go flat actually - go home and come back tomorrow. I think we are back in a medium-term uptrend now but plenty of time.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

you might be right, not liking the nasdaq extension, either it starts falling or I start worrying

p.s. but the worry level is still on standby, might finish an ED and that's it

gmak

The slosh report shows that of the $43 bb in TAF maturing, only $13 bb was rolled over. That means $30 bb came out of the financial system today from TAF. Still waiting on the MBS results after close.

My SPX = 1070 still remains valid. Not ony is it the intersection of the lower trend line from 666 and the upper (descending) trend line from the recent high of 1101 (SPX), but is is also the location of the mid-bollinger (21,2). Certainly 1070 is a good number to manage risk.