Getting close…

Berk awake…

Well we are now pushing up after some sideways consolidation. Could be the final thrust in minute wave II or it might just be minuette wave three’s fifth wave. We’ll have to see where the coming decline leads, but we should be expecting a decline…

$NDX Sniped again?

$INDU showing the same thing…

$INDU ready to reverse...

Volume is light again today, and some stocks are looking pretty ripe. The Zero Lite had a little spike in the morning, but is at zero right now (has been ever since). Standard Zero is flat too, another indication of a zero participation rally. I suggest you guys check out some stocks up nicely on low volume (again).

FWLT, BIDU, ICE, X, ATI, AET, LSTR, and LMT all look pretty good for a start…

Not saying we will get a repeat performance, as STO could continue to rise to a move overbought condition, but some pretty steep reversals have spurred from where the daily STO is right now…

Potential...

Looks like the sniper is back with some extra ammo…

Nice...

We just hit a pretty big reversal there… $VIX picking up, /6E taking a hit, and /DX getting a nice little bid. Let’s see what we do from this bounce here…

Volume update. After the peak, 3 out of 4 days when we had an early morning rally, followed by a steep turn down in the $UVOL-$DVOL, we have ended the day down (reasonably {since I can hear some of you saying we are down right now…}). The one day that was a failure was the bottom of the minute wave I, and that day ended up a couple of points. Looks like we have completed our first 5 waves down, let’s see what this rally does.

Interesting....

Update on the MTN trade I suggested yesterday. Let’s see how it pans out from here…

I'd be looking for at least a 7% drop from here.

This entry was posted on Friday, November 6th, 2009 at 11:14 am and is filed under Elliott Wave Theory, Intraday Update, Market Outlook, Reversals, Update, zero. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

berkshire

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http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12471
Skål!

Tronacate

GREGN........I've got a SIG 556 also........223 is getting spendy though........costs alot just to go out and shoot.

Also have a SIG P239 single stack 40 S&W for my wife.......works better for smaller hands.

Vardoger

Does everyone with TOS know that they added Trader's Audio to the platform? Live pit feed, go to support/chat, Market Feed

I_got_Prechterized

Isn't the pit feed on think or swim too? I haven't been able to find it.

Filipe Miguel

Hi Evil, hope everthing is alrigth :).

I have visited your blog alot of time ago and for me you are one of
EW's references at the world.

I'm Elliott Wave trader too, and like to exchange blog links with you.

Please visit my blog at http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/ and
say what you think about it.

Cypherd

ISRG at new LOD while the market trades sideways.

Tronacate

FSLR not faring too well either

Woolly Llama

Berk,

Great stuff! Keep up the good work. In FWLT, LMT, MTL. Also, AMAG: low vol breaking out, not happy. Out EOD?

Anyone listen to the S+P squawk on TOS? Wow, that guy can talk fast.

bshah

so i have a concern, if y'days slight positive claims # can push market 200 pts in snap, there is virtually no effect for 10% + unemployment numbers on the market, what is it called...? BENOBACRACY...

Publius Federali

The market will do what it wants, these numbers are just noise. If fundamentals mattered and unemployment numbers were important would we be trading at 150x p/e?

bshah

i understand, but if the fundamentals are so important, why the push of 200 points in snap y'day.. This is what I see is the egoistic bunch of loonatics wanting to satisfy their greed in every possible way..

Publius Federali

Because the market moving up yesterday had nothing to do with the numbers reported, the market was ready to go up. As Berk and Mole showed on their graphs the day before. They did not talk about the news or information that would make the market retrace some of the down move, they just said it would retrace and go up. That is what it did. If you want a reason for it you can give it any reason you want, but it is just noise.

bshah

fine.. so to your definition, who's the market..? And they want to just keep this market at this level.. That's why we saw news on insider trading, HTF and all other crap... If it was not something you consider movers, why now market wants to go up even the fundamentals and all indicators, all blogs everyone saying it needs corrections..
This is just buzz words we know and keep on using when things don't go the way we want.. I am also part of that general public... But thanks for sharing thoughts.

cantabnomad

great work, thanks!

anotherone

Berk, nice work on the posts and charts. Very informative and I really appreciate it.

roncofooddehydrator

Retest of P0 on FAS.

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

I knew this day was going to be a joke. Everytime unemployment comes out the market just chops around. I'm glad i slept in...

goldpackers

A B and diagonal C up from 1029 which we are in 4 and need 5th up to~1076

goldpackers

Still favor one more 3 wave rally back to 1070/1076. Below 1051

Scoops

Here's a spread I entered on BIDU this morning.

Jan 380/360
Debit 6.50
Max Reward 1350

This morning reeks of PPT.

Vardoger

Very clean pennant on 15-min /NQ!

Rightside_ot_trade

Let's see if there will be a 3rd touch on lower Tl

SlowDownFast

Dollar starting to get a bid, little by little

itsgold

I think we might be range bound today between 1055 and 1066 on the /ES

berkshire

Refresh for a little update on a volume pattern. $VIX has also bounced from STRONG support...

Skål!

bshah

PPT is at works again... I feel bad for those unemployed... No one is thinking for them.. Y'day there was report out that Wall Street bonus this year will be somewhere 40% range even after the fight with congress...
Go figure.. Those are the pricks putting the unemployed in that conditions.. Hang them all.

Tronacate

Yuppers........responsibility and accountability have been raped........this is financial tyranny of the vulnerable.

Tronacate

FSLR losing it's footimg

gregn

Tron, why did you choose the Sig over a Walther or Glock? I really like the P226, I'll have to compare the three at the range in the near future.

Tronacate

I liked the double action....hammer let down......just seemed tough too......but everything is good these days.......plus the dealer was a friend.......just comes down to personal preference.........pick what you like.......

Publius Federali

I have a Sig 556 SWAT and it is absolutely amazing. Everything I hear about all their weapons is top notch. Glock's are ubiquitous so they are easy to get accessories for but they are the Apple of guns.

gregn

Are you in the law enforcement business or is that for home protection. ;)

Publius Federali

Just for fun, when I started getting into weapons a couple of years ago I wanted to get a black rifle and went to the gun show looking for one. A guy had this weapon for sale all decked out so I just picked it up. Eotech sight, green lasermax (goes a couple of miles I think), strobe light on front grip, full rails, folding stock. Just a high end rifle that pretty much shoots itself and almost no kick. It's like cheating, you can't miss inside 150 yards.

gregn

Short candidate BIDU: RS of H&S forming, short on break below 398: http://screencast.com/t/FkVM9URiLL8L

cramar

So is 1071 close enough to 1073, or is this another (final hopefully) bear trap?

itsgold

I have resistance at 1071 on the /ES, so yea, around there would be my top or potential short entry.

I think the auction next week is going to drain some money out of equities.

Vardoger

This could be building out a triangle?

berkshire

What time frame? What market?

Skål!

Vardoger

watching 1 or 5 min /es but spx would be similar. Sorry, when I'm nondescript that's always what I'm talking about.

Higher lows and lower highs

berkshire

Fair enough... Though I am inclined to see a five wave decline, indicating that a triangle in my view is out...

Skål!

Vardoger

dow and russel made higher highs on that second ramp that lend to it not being a iv of sort, /nq is sporting the best pennant however. If it breaks down on nas could be decent signal IMVHO

cc

Take a look at AMZN...damn, trading at 125.00...final short squeeze before that rolls over?

anthem

I think someone upgraded it. I think they want the PE at 100+ or something. . .

ClutchShorter

I'm going to open this up for anyone that has input. Can someone explain how I hedge with futures if I am short using SPY vertical puts? I'll look into it further but assume I have 10 contracts at $3500. How much of my position should I dedicate to futures and how does it generally work? I would assume that since I am short SPY, I go long ES. That would reduce my losses? Wouldnt this reduce profit potential as well. Anyone input would be appreciated?

Vardoger

I replied on last page, if you have any more questions keep asking. There are plenty of people on here that trade them including fa_q.

ClutchShorter

Thanks, I appreciate your response. This helpful. I would assume you manage your future contracts based on technicals. So given the nature of today's tape, you would have purchased ES during market open since the SPY puts were losing value and since SPY is rolling over now, you dump your ES?

Vardoger

I bought /es 1059 when it started to breakout and sold 1066 forty mins later when it was losing momentum. The best part about them is you can get filled in a second and only $3 per trade on TOS.

Currently unhedged but think we may be building a triangle so I might scalp the inside if we get another ramp. MM's are running all the stops today it seems. Hopefully we build the triangle, it will be easy to decide on position, if we break north I'll have an OCO bracket on to either buy or to short a contract and bolster the puts I already own. Make sense?

ClutchShorter

Thanks, makes a lot of sense. You just trade the the /ES futures, what about the options on those futures?

Vardoger

Futures also have beneficial tax incentives I believe compared to other short-term products. If anyone knows more about that please share.

Vardoger

I do, they pay really well and are pretty liquid. Trades only cost $3 and for anyone below $25k account balance-- they don't count against day trades or affect your overnight buying power. You can buy and sell them all day... I'm going to snag some 1030 or 1020 puts on /es if whenever we break down.

gregn

10:30 turnaround...

itsgold

In march, the stress tests revealed that banks can't survive with 10+% unemployment.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...

I'm looking at purchasing Leap Puts on banks 2010 / 2011. HSBC, WFC, JPM, XLF, BAC are all potential candidates in my opinion. I know its not the most prudent thing to trade on news, but its interesting to see that even with government released numbers, the banks failed the 'stress' tests in the end.

amokta

what about barclays - would you leap-put that?

goldpackers

Still favor 1076 SPX but if I can't deal with 10 points agin me then shouldn't be here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Believe the next two weeks will produce yummy honey for the bears.

Joe8888

We hit the Backtest level i spoke about ,last night,,ON spy Daily Chart...

,now all we need is to Dump !!!

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder...