Lunchtime Learning: Berk’s Trend-Trading

Some of you, and myself as well, think it was quite apropos for my to leave when I did, and return as I have. I am a trend trader at heart, and the 9 months of rally that I missed were merely the time I was to be playing ping-pong and waiting for the next trend to show it’s love. Since I can combine EWT with trend-trading, I am looking to catch individual equities that have been underperforming some where in wave 1, and ride them down all the wave until their motive move has reversed. Stronger stocks, I will usually catch right at wave 3 is busting out…

Since I was lazy on one of my charts yesterday, and Gregn (I believe it was you) called me out on it… I will give you a little piece of my mind… (in a good way).

Here’s a little preview of how I am trading the next move down…

BB system entries.

You might be saying to yourself right now that you wouldn’t have done very will in a the given time-frame, and I concur. All the entries except the first short entry have been stopped out just about break-even, or for a slight loss. However, you are up a few points on the first short entry, and should X drop today, will be adding to that position. Now for the fun part.

Notice that you may or may not have been stopped out (closes vs. pushes) on the second unit, but would have just added the next day anyway.

Can you say WOW?!?

Admittedly, there are quite a few chop and stop entries before you get the real love. But consider this: To catch the intended move (which as you can see is quite large) you must buy options with a shit-tonne (again, technical term) of time behind them. Therefore, OTM, ITM, ATM, whatever, your options should be barely affected by these chop and stop price moves…

Basic premise: Enter long on an upward break of the upper BB, add on a break of the second upper BB. Reduce postition on a close back inside of the .75 upper BB and close the position completely on a close back inside the .50 upper BB. Take no action inside the .50 BB, and reverse the directions for going short. This system is best traded with stock or with long term options.

Notice that the winners banked roughly a 40% upmove and a 65% downmove (plus an additional 50% down move, but 25 to 12 isn’t so drastic {at that point}). Winnings like that should easily clear out a number of chop and stop trades. That’s it. Please ask questions if you find it interesting. I have a number of modified rules for it (set up for MY trading style), but I would love to hear your input.

Mole wanted to make sure that all of us don’t fall for this suspect rally. Participation remains light… Just trying to shake us shorts out…

1 hr zero chart.

UPDATE: 13:30EDT:

Updated $NDX count. Looking pretty good here. A push up here without a new afternoon low would eliminate the count as labeled.

$NDX updated counts.

Some close up action of my view on the current count. Alternate count is in pinkish, and represents an A-B-C flat in wave 4 of minuette C in minute ii. I know, I know hard to take all that proper-degree counting and shit…

Could it be we are ready for wave {{iii}} of {iii} of (iii) of iii of III (not really that many 3's but you get my point).

End of day count. Sure as hell were trying to stop us out weren’t they. Expect a pop and drop Monday, or a straight fall from the open. Markets are weak here, and are struggling with reclaiming any intra-day high.

A final count for the day.

With that, I am off to do some errands. I will be back for some kind of summary post later tonight or tomorrow. Hope y’all fared well.

So I lied… One final diddy on the volume.

Now I’m out… Catch y’all later.

Skål!

This entry was posted on Friday, November 6th, 2009 at 12:36 pm and is filed under Market Outlook, Option Strategies, Options, Trade, Trading. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Hinkognito

Apologies for the delayed response, i am trying to catch up on all the postings here. This is a great system to consider. This would have been killer for UNG. Many thanks Berk.

amokta

on soh, fujisan suggesting djia/spy will rise until nov opx

The_Grim_Reaper

http://ethicalcheating.blogspot.com/

There is strong evidence we are in a counter-trend sell off very similar in nature to June-July, where the S&P fell from about 958 to 870 -- a 10% correction.

For example:

The first drop in the 10% correction lasted from June 11th to June 23rd and took 9 days from top to bottom for a 7.64% drop. The first drop on this leg down lasted from October 21st to November 2nd and took 9 days for a 7% drop.

The first counter-trend in June-July lasted 7 days and retraced up 3% to the 61% fib. We are now on day 5 of a counter-trend and have retraced up 2.89%, very near the 61% fib, suggesting there might be a bit more upside over the next few sessions, if the comparison holds.

Finally, the last wave down in June-July lasted 5 days and fell 6.89%. I would expect the same to hold for the next wave down now, which would put the overall price target on this correction at approximately 990 and an approximate date of 11/16.

This is all assuming the comparison to June-July holds.

CastorTroy

Short setup still in play. Some bears trapped could fuel a short-covering rally if we go a little higher. Big juncture coming although it's not clear whether it will resolve next week, a potentially slow week with very little economic data.
http://tinyurl.com/yaxhf45

Vardoger

Per Buffet's purchase of BNI this week that had some ST bears in a tuss: A musing from legendary trader Victor Niederhoffer on his website http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/

Two Hypotheses About the Sage

Hypothesis One, by Victor Niederhoffer:

Whenever BRK big breaks through 100000 one way or the other it's wrong for the market.

[chart]

Hypothesis Two, by Daniel Grossman:

Whenever Buffett pays stock rather than all cash (e.g., for General Re), he is bearish about the market. It's his only available way of selling BRK stock.

-----
How Buffett paid for BNI:

$10 B stock
$8 B cash
$8 B debt.

~Take a chill pill or channel a stainless steel rat paranoid bears, everything will go according to plan

TransworldDepravity

If I am understanding your commentary correctly, Buffet's recent purchase is in fact bearish, but without appearing it that way. I tend to agree. Here's another piece that supports this argument.
http://thehousingtimebomb.blogspot.com/2009/11/...

Vardoger

That's another way to look at what he did, especially long-term. Since I'm in the deflation camp though, I think he was trying to unload stock and debt that he couldn't do any other way and got a new toy for his SimCity that is known as Berkshire. Great move on his part imho. China is going to want our resources, mainly coal and the rails are still going to import their shit as long as they are pegged to the dollar and we consume like the crackheads we are.

Vardoger

A note on Trader's Audio that TOS recently picked up on the platform: IMHO be aware that there are a lot of games that are played in the pit. There are some big local traders that Ben might call out (#1 for example) and say he is offering aggressively, the trick is knowing whether he is truly selling or not. For example, if he needs to buy 250 spoos or 1000 minis in open outcry he would get a shit fill because he would have to eat up the sellers and tick up. At the same time, other locals or paper might join him in the bid and it could lead to a ramp quickly where he would have to chase remaining contracts at a much higher price. Since this particular tactic is terribly inefficient, he is better served to spread his buy orders out to a couple other locals for them to fill. His next step is to go in to the pit and start offering aggressively, get some others in on the trade and push the market down. This opens up the supply of contracts and could allow for an even lower fill price than when he started. On the squawk or with your own eyes in the pit it seems like he is selling, but in reality he only sold (X) but at the end of the day- bought 4(X) through the other traders.
Also, maybe someone else can clarify on the paper side of things but it is my belief that traders from Goldman for instance, may or may not be filling orders from their prop desks as much as orders from Hedge funds or private big fish that are their clients. Just another thing to think about if you are using the service. A nice quiet chart is still my most useful tool, but the pit feed can be useful at certain times, especially when a number comes out. Unless you'd rather watch a Viagra commercial on CNBC and be 90 seconds behind of course.

*This week I posted a code for TOS called Extreme Ticks which I got from ThinkScripter. While the code is a free one on his site, I'd like to say that I find his work to be extremely valuable and that one only scratches the surface of the cool stuff he's designed. It has been the best $50 I've spent and he is always quick to return and email or in the forum if I have a question. http://www.thinkscripter.com/

TransworldDepravity

happy saturday
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2F_hGwD26g
soapbox house of cards and glass

raised_by_wolves

I don't have a trading system other than figuring out what the most relevant lines are.

On the $VIX, this is the line I'm watching closely.

On $SPX, I have identified the most relevant resistance line as well as the most relevant support line.

Onorio

IMO the VIX move is similar to the USD.

We`ve a 5 wave up followed by a irregular flat. We`re arround the 61.8% retrace of the move and near the previous 4th wave so a W3 should kick off soon.

raised_by_wolves

Thanks.

Hey, what wave count do you have for AMZN. Is this a w5 in your opinion?

Onorio

IMO we should be in (v) of iii of C

http://www.screencast.com/t/iZiWJQ716

C = A aprox. @ 1.37$

Onorio

Weekend SPX study :

Here`s the deal, we`ve topped at 1101 and had a impulsive move to the downside that bottomed at 1029, this is 72pts.

Wave 2 retraces are 1065 (50%) or 1073 (61.8%),so or we dive monday in [iii] or we`re due for some more pain till 1073 at least. In time issues W2 is always more than 50% time of W1, witch leaves us with one more day of whipsaw, because W1 took 9 days and we`re in about 4 1/2 days from 1029.

W3 targets based on W1 are :

Aprox. 955 for W3 = 162% of W1 or
Aprox. 882 for W3 = 262% of W1,

This W3 should last arround 14 days, this means that W3 should bottom near the end of November.

http://www.screencast.com/t/sdebMlAQF

raised_by_wolves

"should bottom near the end of November" is in harmony with Stainless Steel Hamster's prediction.

C's & 3's

Maybe the stock market is different this time.
http://tinyurl.com/yhxczhj

Vardoger

Putting this one under my pillow...thanks ;)

amokta

"Bubbly Ben is engineering the greatest reflationary environment in the history of markets. I think most investors know the Fed can’t print us back to prosperity, but that doesn’t mean Bubbly Ben’s rally can’t last much longer"
-may be things are different this time??

Vardoger

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1597-More-Ext...

Maybe, I'm certainly not taking that bet though. Trade what you believe and don't listen to anyone else though, it's the only way to be IMHO. I was wrong for the better part of 7 months and blew an account. I'm rebuilding now and certainly not the one to ask ;)

steveo77

Ok - you get Kona Coffee for this one.....100%....

Damn good chart.... multi thousand dollar value fo' so'

Scoops

P/C Ratios looking juicy for the bears. Big boys were loading up, while Joe Schmo doing the exact opposite. The only thing that concerned me with what Hochberg had to say today, which also brought to mind a Hulbert article the other day, was that sentiment was not consistent with the type of move that WE are positioning for. Perhaps all part of the P3 trickery.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=1...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPCI&p=D&yr=1...

sirgiyan

I hate to be a party pooper, but here are TWO CHARTS which make me scratch my... well head.
Being a bear I hate to see these readings at the end of a day this thursday
http://screencast.com/t/paExK1Oc5WB

Scoops

Ya those are somewhat concerning and good to keep in mind for sure.

steveo77

Could you explain that chart, I cannot thamon its implications.

sirgiyan

It's just the amount of bulls (the left chart) and bears as of this thursday

TimV

Thanks Berk. I've been wanting to try to find more systems to trade that remove (most) emotional decisions from the process.

Not sure if anyone posted this... Geronimo was down about 3 today. One winning trade, one stopped out (-4.5 for me...I got a better entry than the system) and one breakeven.

Guest

WEEKEND STOCK MARKET MASALA

PART I: BEARISH COUNTS (P2 TOPPED AT 1101.36 AND CURRENTLY IN P3. WE FINISHED MINUTE [i] AT 1029 AND CURRENTLY IN OR FINISHED MINUTE [ii] TODAY AT 1071.48 AND ABOUT TO BEGIN MINUTE [iii] DOWN TO 1000-1020) -

1. From Kenny-

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SvNeCpLKY...

2. From Binve-

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/SvSE8EQsH...

3. From Alpha-

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-p17nqJfPI8/SvSQDtBxu...

4. From Patmcneil-

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_rU1O_fAnSHQ/SvSVrnTXR...

5. From Pugridiron (He is bearish short term and bullish Intermediate term, sees 1000-1020 and then 1150-1200)-

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_9Sqz0bUVklI/SvSaDkGII...

PART II: BULLISH COUNTS (INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS)-

1. From Daneric (Daneric is also in P3 camp and currently in minute [ii]. However his minute [ii] target is 1080-1090)-

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SvS3WuVZZ...

2. From Brinkley-

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_oqKj7JIlUso/SvPC5CGxM...

3. From Kemal ( He sees us dropping to 1050 form 1074-1076 and then a rally to 1100)-

http://www.screencast.com/users/Kemal_1/folders...

This is what KEMAL says-

"Basically, I labelled the correction down to 1029 as a second X wave. So I have one final abc move left for a rare triple ZZ. That last abc is it when I refer to wave (a).

The SPX is in a VERY tricky situation. I am watching two potential set ups.

1. The inverted H&S formation could form much smaller left and right shoulders than what one would think on first glance.

2. A so called leading diagonal (LD) could be forming in the wave (a) position. Right now, the fourth wave would be forming. I give this formation quite some credibility. The final fifth wave should be an acceleration to the 1074 - 1076 area. It could happen end of day OR first thing Monday morning. IF such an acceleration (or gap up on Monday morning) happens, GET OUT as fast as you can.
The reason is that an LD is followed by a very sharp retracement, likely down to 1050. This retracement could last 2 - 3 days.

I don't expect any drop today. Even after the sharp retracement, if it happens, new highs are certain. So the major market direction is up."

PART III: POTENTIAL EARNINGS PLAYS FOR NEXT WEEK (CHECK ANNA'S HOB SITE)-

PCLN, GOLD, GMCR, JWN, URBN, WMT, MIDD, ANF, JCP, DIS, SINA

PART IV: OVERSOLD STOCKS WATCH LIST WITH IDEAL TARGET ENTRY PRICE

Here are some stocks that are oversold and my ideal target entry prices. The exit price would be about 7-10% from the target entry price-

NTRS @ 48-49, STT @ 38-39, GRMN @ 23-24, OXPS @ 14-14.2, STEC @ 12.5-13.0,

ILMN @ 30-31, WFR @ 12.0-12.3, AMGN @ 50-51, NRG @ 22-23, PALM @ 9.5-10

APOL @ 54-55), FSLR @ 114-115

PART V: AMZN & BIDU

1. To those who are shorting AMZN-

Daneric posted this on Oct 26th. His target on AMZN was 130-

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SuZXSV9PG...

2. BIDU: Daneric called the top in BIDU just before earnings and I took advantage of it with options :-)

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Sui4yruLw...

GLTA

mikesmith53

I really like your summary. Thank you. It obviously took a lot of time. Hope to see another one soon.

berkshire

Thanks for all that PRAMOD. Glad to see that most of the bearish set-ups are looking the same. Possible peak happened, but likely one last little push.

I still like the 415 area for BIDU, but it certainly has topped. Thanks for keeping us up to date...

Skål!

Guest

My pleasure :-)

Centrifugal_Deforest

Okay, see you guys back on the other side...
http://tinyurl.com/yzb5y88

DMS425

This is a real problem and shows no sign of turning anytime soon. 8 in a row......
(If someone already posted; well it is worth reading again)

Consumers borrowed less for a record eighth straight month in September amid rising unemployment and tight credit conditions. Economists worry the declines in borrowing will drag on the fledgling recovery.
Consumer borrowing fell at an annual rate of $14.8 billion in September.
The Federal Reserve said Friday that borrowing fell at an annual rate of $14.8 billion in September. That's the biggest decline since July and was larger than the $10 billion drop economists expected.

ClutchShorter

I think this rally has a lot to do with the fact that institutions/banks can borrow $$ at low interest rates then placing them in higher yield assets (stocks, options, funds). This is the only way to explain it. As long as the interest rates are at these levels, they are just going to ride it out. The Feds have extended low interest rates which may not be lifted until next year. If things were actually improving and if we are actually in a recovery, then why keep interest rates low. This rally will continue longer than we think.

DMS425

CS,

What you are talking about is the carry trade. It is also the reason why you need to watch the dollar. People/speculators borrow in Dollars and Yen and then buy higher yielding assets. When they sell those assets they have to convert back to dollars/yen.

ClutchShorter

I'm considering using a very simple trading technique (MA crossovers) and trendlines. I think sometimes I overcomplicate things and overanalyze it to the point where it is counterproductive.

Corto

Berk,

I am very interesting in trend trading and have read Covel's book and Van Tharp's books, as well as working on the way of the turtle.

I really like the Bollinger Band crossings you do for entries and exits. I am still learning.

Do you enter positions on the crossing of the .75SD or the .5SD? Same for exits?

Most importantly, can you, or anyone recommend a screener that would look for these crossings? I am new to Think or Swim, so if there is some way to setup a screen to run on this basis, any help is appreciated.

berkshire

Yes. Bullish entry above .5BB and pyramid on the .75BB. Cross back below .75BB would be a single exit (i.e. the pyramid order). Should you never re-enter the .5BB you would hold that position and look to pyramid again on the .75BB cross. Vice versa for a bearish trade.

I have read all of those books as well... Good reading. I was reading part of "Way of the Turtle" at the bookstore and found one line that said to me "if you understand me, this is worth millions."

As for the search... Finviz.com will let you screen for stocks at or below (or above) their 200SMA (though I use an EMA with my system).

Skål!

Macrawn

Berk how many bars are you using in your bollinger bands?

Corto

Berk,

Thanks. If you could clarify a little more, it seems you are doing this with options, based off the stock crossings and when you get chopped you are exiting option positions? Are you getting eaten up by bid/ask spreads? Do you also do it on the stock itself at times?

It looks like you are looking at the bands on a daily chart. Do you tend to stick with dailies or go to other time intervals for certain reasons?

Finally, when you or others say pyramid, is that typically a doubling of the initial position?

I really appreciate the response.

berkshire

As posted in the post... "But consider this: To catch the intended move (which as you can see is quite large) you must buy options with a shit-tonne (again, technical term) of time behind them. Therefore, OTM, ITM, ATM, whatever, your options should be barely affected by these chop and stop price moves…"

Looks like popular demand will have me making a real post about my trading system over the weekend sometime. Stay tuned...

Skål!

Corto

Thanks, man. I and I'm sure a lot of others would like to see details.

killafox

Will be the target of the inverted H&S achieved??? will see next week.
see the last update about it http://marketrendwaves.blogspot.com/

good weekend to all

berkshire

The target of the inverse head and shoulders will be the right shoulder of the head and shoulders top. HA!! How do you like that.

Skål!

gregn

This was somewhat intended to be humorous, but who knows, it might work. We are seeing negative GS divergence with SPX, last time we had one, we got big drop: http://screencast.com/t/PVhdss710

Vardoger

Goldman just dumped 150+cars in the last two minutes of pit trading. Hopefully those dirty bastards know something. Lates....

MobyDoc

they sold 150 es contracts with a couple min. to go in the afterhour session ?

DMS425

what is 150+ cars?

Vardoger

It's what they call contracts in the big S&P pit or 'spoos'

If you have TOS and are going to be listening in Trader's Audio has some good faq's:

http://www.tradersaudio.com/faq.html

*The service costs $75 a month I think so it's pretty cool that Sosnoff worked out a deal with these guys.

Woolly Llama

I listened in yesterday and it was a slow day, but I could barely keep up w/ what he was saying. Great stuff though; TOS continues to deliver.

Unfadable

Yeah, futures contracts specifications were set up to be about what you could on a railway "car" -- like 5000 bushels of grain. So "cars" is interchangeable with futures contracts, and I'm assuming he's talking about S&P index futures.

molecool

I think he's talking about block trades...

C's & 3's

Cars mean contracts. Old school lingo from the days when they traded rail car loads of commodities. I used to work at the CME

z12run

I've been listening in to Ben on the traders audio and was wondering who is "Number One"? With the others, Ben gives the company name and I assume "Number One" isn't the name of a company.

C's & 3's

He gave the biggest local in the the pit the nickname #1.

amokta

this is a JOKE. all elliott wave international predictions seem to fall down - no P3, no dollar rally

DavidDT

you need to understand that EW is a very good idea...
just like "imaginary friend" - everyone needs one, everyone has one and everyone's friend is different and can be changed at any time - that is an advantage of being "imaginary"

tfinavia

This is good. :)

Vardoger

Wave 2's can retrace almost all of wave 1. This isn't like forecasting the weather. I know it can be difficult to trade (and analyze) short term gyrations but don't let the MM's fake you out! Until volume really comes in and we get some impulse to the long side I'm sticking with EWI. Best of luck to you.

amokta

thanks - was just frustrated ! yes strictly wave 2 can retrace upto wave 1, but is suppose thats where the timing element comes in re EWI

ClutchShorter

I kind of understand your frustration. When Prectcher released and published his book on EW, did he expound upon what Elliot initially wrote or did he just re-release and reintroduce Elliot's work. I believe Pretcher released his book in the 80s so was it suddenly lost over that 50 year period and then rediscovered.

molecool

If you let your emotions influence your trading it's probably best you cash out on Monday. Everyone here understands your frustrations but I did suggest 1066 several days ago (and was practically begging the bulltards to push it there) and that's exactly where we closed today. So, if this push up surprised you in any way you might want to come by more often and actually read my updates. Just venting your anger here does not help you or adds anything to the quality of the discussion.

Peace.

Eva S

Mole, when are you going to post your chart and projections again? I like your charting style a lot.

berkshire

You saying you got something against me?!? :-P Just playing.

Skål!

bobthehorse

Moile - you did indeed nail it. But Precheter and his clan are dangerous. I pity anyone who subscribes to them. I used to - enjoyed it for a while but unlike you, they are pushing an agenda, not trying to help people make money.

vision_invisible

great call btw, i was like "holy mole-y" when i saw the writing on the wall

amokta

point taken. was quiet here, so took liberty for a loose comment. Agree that even ewi did say that a push up is possible (to close the 'gap'). Good-night, and appreciate your blog !

Scoops

As soon as you start "hoping" the market will move in your direction is the time where you should not be in the market at all. I could give two shits whether we fall or rally because I have my lines drawn and risk checked. All I see atm is a bunch of overlapping crap correcting the 5 waves we had down. The time to pile in was not when the vix was at 30. The time to pile in is exactly the time where you are scared shitless that the momos are going to take you out. That's also the time where one stands to lose the least amount of money as stops are nice and tight.

catracho

well said...wave 2's make people think all is ok...
as u said until u get a break to new highs, we are still potentially in a wave 2

WTFed

Thanks for the good work this week Berk. Have a good weekend everybody.

bshah

"Sure as hell were trying to stop us out weren’t they", Berk, who's they..? If it's the market, it's just noise.. fuck it.. man... I am frustrated with this, but oh well.. TGIFF... ( fill in the extra F )...
I am hoping that you are right.. MA/AMZN both made new highs and yet it's not enough... no one has money but they are going to buy..

string01

Well, I guess 10.2 is the new 5.1
buy buy buy.

Whatever.
fuck.

berkshire

One final update. Gone for a few hours. Catch up with y'all later.

Skål!

itsgold

Unemployment charts over at The Big Picture. These graphs are just downright scary. At this rate, I'm wondering how long before I'm up next on the chopping block.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/even-more-...

DavidDT

I heard they started to put pink slips into Saturday mail - to avoid Friday's escorts

gregn

Hope and Change.

Vardoger

Goldman selling in pit

WTFed

pit of hell

Schwerepunkt

You have an audio link to the pit?

Vardoger

Yeah TOS picked it up recently, I used to pay for it but canceled this summer. Paper is on both sides now and ChiCorp is buying heavy- at least 1k cars. I got my shorts all loaded, have a great weekend all. Thanks for the charts and time Berk

Covered (kzhat)

Is that in the audio feeds for TOS?

molecool

Have a great weekend Hindenberg - see you Monday.

berkshire

Refresh for final fucking count...

Skål!

gregn

I know we talked about momentum before, but I can't remember if I asked you this, but have you ever heard of momentum divergence triggers. I use it all the time and actually used it on this example -- GS. http://screencast.com/t/u7iKcz93nn

luckylee

$680billion Defense spending, $1.2 trllion healthcare, homebuyer tax credit, unemployment benefit extension, money printing to prop up the market, over 1000% monetary base expansion. Must be very deflationary, especially with oil at $76 and gold at all time high.

Sometimes I wonder why US Dollar Permabulls love being gangraped by Bernanke & Geithner in the rear.

centerline

So far bobthehorse called it earlier today... looking more and more like flat close. Lay your bets on Monday! gap up or gap down.

ultra

Mmmm.... which way you wanna lay your bet on this baby?

http://screencast.com/t/FRflWqzFI

ultra

hello folks and especially all you amazon watchers.

don't see any comment on this so I thought I'd just let you know that AMZN is making new highs.

in micro-(iv) of (v) I am thinking.

no further comment necessary so I will make none.

berkshire

Yup another upgrade near ATH. A little more patience and the thing will kill over.

Skål!

Centrifugal_Deforest

Flying out of here today. Too bad in a way. I knew this place was taking over at some point but clear 2me now they are at the wheel already.

Back to my back seat then. Should be more active next week as far as the blahging

ultra

oi you. did we ever find out what that secondary issue was that we missed?

re. les chinoises - I shouldn't panic too much yet - they are going to have enough (too many?) problems to deal with when the world merry-go-round comes off its hinges to be coming over to california and defiling the staff at peet's... just yet at least...

Centrifugal_Deforest

No, been finishing up that piece all week ;)
...Will have a month on the plane to get it done though, so out this weekend.

Name in q is RINO

berkshire

We look forward to your increased participation...

Skål!

gregn

Any comment if we close outside of .75? http://screencast.com/t/1qyOReqT

berkshire

Yes... I have a short bias so I would not take this trade... :-P

Seriously though, I haven't mentioned any of my filters, but I would not have taken these trades based on a major momentum divergence. I will do some more elaboration on my system, perhaps over the weekend. You'll also notice in review, that while those trades were winners, they are certainly a sub-par example of the system...

Skål!

Covered (kzhat)

Berk,

I'm very, very interested in seeing the filters you've applied and understanding your system a bit more. I'm planning to carve out a big chunk of cash to trade longer term setups in about 6 months. I want to paper trade these setups for a while first to ensure that I'm happy with how things work.

You and Mole are both top notch, and I'd love to try out something that Keeps it Simple, while working very well.

Right now I'm banking coin in grains with a stupid simple macd/bband setup that is just simply trend following on a short term chart. I like it a lot, but I'm running into scalability issues as the grains don't support large future entries and exits without some substantial slippage.

Anyhow, keep up the fantastic work!

Centrifugal_Deforest

Should be the end of me - but looking forward to it, thx

gregn

The own us via debt.

Centrifugal_Deforest

They need us on our feet for that reason though. Some significance in that perhaps

Vardoger

Ah yes we are the demand aren't we. Have you noticed any of the of the working class is becoming less frugal or desiring possesions; or are they still very much savers?

Centrifugal_Deforest

I don't know what they are saving, but they are clearly spending and the atmosphere incredibly vibrant.

Traffic is comical, but the streets are as wide as Delaware. The place is a little Vegas, a lot of LA, etc...but multiply x's 5.

gregn

Symbiosis.

Centrifugal_Deforest

y, as an appetizer.

Schwerepunkt

Anybody think a 4th [3rd] weekly close over DOW 10K means anything, and next week a possible monthly close?

Centrifugal_Deforest

Dow 10k meaningless.
Mkt stabilizing and putting you guys into a toss and turn sleep pattern perhaps is

berkshire

But the hats... Oh, the hats...

Skål!

Schwerepunkt

Rally monkey dances again. I feel like I'm in a blowing alley and see the Geico sign: "So easy, even a caveman can do it."

TransworldDepravity

Anyone else notice a potential large H&S formation for TBT on the yearly chart?

Tronacate

Heading back outside........the market was going down till I came back in

string01

Damn it.
Stay out.

Centrifugal_Deforest

Crawling out of bed here - I miss anything?

Onorio

the paint dry..

berkshire

Nope...

Skål!

Centrifugal_Deforest

Perfect then. Boy they like to drink here. Tough to stay up all night after that.
This toasting thing insane. You must toast that someone is toasting I think and then be sure to toast that as well

berkshire

Wow. Gotta love that. I'll bet it makes it tough to stand, let alone stay awake after all of that.

Skål!

Centrifugal_Deforest

fun though

Tronacate

Poor FSLR.......

Tronacate

Wonder how Thain's doing now that he's coming out again???........need someone to gut him like a carp.

wex

Aside from spending too much on office decor, I think Thain did a great job. Remember he sold a failing business for a top top price. Not sure he was responsible for O'neal's action in CDO or mortgages

Vardoger

no volume on the downside so far

berkshire

Nope... Volume has remained pretty light all day. On track to be the lowest volume day in the past 20...

Skål!

gregn

P/Cs are lowering, looking better for a EOD sell off.

Tronacate

Starting to get some pretty breadths.......

roncofooddehydrator

Beginning to look like we won't have direction one way or another. We'll just gap in the appropriate direction over the weekend so that almost everyone is screwed.

DeadPrez

That's what I am afraid of. Still holding front month short positions for the moment.

gregn

Doji Fridays -- the greatest.

TransworldDepravity

I'll be very happy if IYR takes out today's low and posts a gravestone doji for the week.

Trader_Steve

What are your long-term thoughts on IYR?

Steve

TransworldDepravity

Looking for successive weekly closes under the 50 EMA. The 20 is also turning lower and headed for a cross under it. Breaking 40 would be a good start.

dreadwin

I also expected it to close nearer the weekly low. Instead, we get a weekly doji candle.

TransworldDepravity

I'll take it. IIRC, we hit the 20 EMA this week and was rejected and a close under the 50. SRS and DRV etfs were much stronger relative to FAZ and SKF today on decent volumes.

dreadwin

I expect to see another opportunity to enter DRV Monday am near SPX 1080. I think IYR will be at the 20 EMA or 50 SMA at that point.

While it is nice to see IYR get rejected 3 days in a row (50, 20, 20), I'm somewhat concerned that there have been 3 tests in as many days.

Tronacate

We don't want fucking credit......we want a GS bonus check......just for putting up with this bullshit

DavidDT

there is no limit to sheeples' patience

Tronacate

People are starting to lose it.....witness fort hood......just the start.

DavidDT

the moment I saw pictures I pictured this one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlrX3bwQ2rk

KK_KK

i was hoping for more suicides from fund managers and financial institutes, not homicides. this won't tank the market :(

Tronacate

Suicide like the Japanese requires a sense of honor.........

centerline

Just had something similar here in Orlando today. Sad.

gregn

Muslims have always been violent.

DavidDT

that is not quite correct
it just so happened that Muslims are among the poorest and poorest had nothing to lose to be afraid to fight

Tronacate

Lol........so you're saying the human condition applies to Muslims also?

gregn

;D

berkshire

Yup, they are all just being herded to a slaughter anyway. Ignorance is certainly bliss in this case.

Skål!

DavidDT

it surely IS a bliss...for 800 club of owners of this country

bshah

so what's the number? I thought we were waiting for 3 PM...

gregn

14 bln rather than 10 bln.

bshah

yeeeeeeeeeeeee.... party time.. i am gonna spend more.. on credit obviously..

gregn

You would think with two horrific fed figures the selling would be more pronounced.

Tronacate

Monday........or eod with monday carry over......

Schwerepunkt

ES finally dropped down to the VWAP on my charts. Credit contraction worse than expected. You'd think market would drop more than it has.

Lunchtime Learning: Berk’s Trend-Trading

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