Zero Gravity Day

Continuous bank failured and horrible economic news notwithstanding the market busted what can only be described as one wet bull boner this morning:

As you know I expected a spike up but this is a bit silly. What should make the bears very very nervous is that gap up, which might be a small degree ‘point of recognition’, indicating a third wave up. Not something I would expect inside a completing flat - no sirreee! It’s not looking good for the bears this morning. I just checked the Zero Lite and we saw massive positive signal at the open.

I’ll be back after I collect a few more charts.

11:48am EDT: I just checked the Periodic Table of Finance Bloggers again and it seems that Joshua still has not put us on his list:

Of course this is unacceptable and must be remedied immediately. I had written Joshua last week, informing him that this site gets more traffic/eyeballs than probably half of his list combined. For some reason however he has not replied and we still don’t exist. If you are unhappy about being relegated to a non-existent status you might want to write him - perhaps if he gets a few more emails he might change his mind.

Yes, evil is as evil does

12:05pm EDT: Boy that was quick. Here’s Joshua’s response:

Hey Mole,
I have made 3 major oversights in my Periodic Table, and as I’ve commented, Evil Speculator was one of them. That said, I just began reading you, several of your loyal followers have urged (threatened) me to do so!

Mea culpa for missing Evil Speculator, It certainly won’t happen in the next iteration.

Thanks for reaching out, btw. I’m adding you to the blogroll and my reader.

Thanks!

Josh

Alright, let’s give the kid a break - seems like he got the ‘message’ and is eager to change his wayward ways.

12:24pm EDT: Okay, you rats need a bit of a cheer up:

I just checked the Dollar chart and lo and behold - we busted a new low on the DXY:

NOT looking good at all for the bears. I doubt that this is the end of this push down, but heck what do I know. Let’s check 2sweeties’ RL calc:

Based on the huge shoe that just dropped on the ole’ buck Monty Python style I set the 100% odds at 74.08. Based on that I see an 86.5% chance we turn at 74.74 and a 69.1% chance that we turn right here and now.

The highest frequency of reversals was actually at 75.4 and we busted though that this morning and never looked back. 74.74 has reasonable odds plus a reasonable frequency, so if we keep plunging here this would be my next level to anticipate a possible reversal.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 9th, 2009 at 11:45 am and is filed under Currencies, Intraday Update, Market Outlook, Retracement Levels. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

softcookie

Oh my fucking god...words escape me!!! For Blankenfein to actually think that let alone say it on record is delusion of epic proportions. I can hear Nero fiddling already...

With all due respect to Mole's heritage, and my own for that matter, perhaps the Nazis got one thing right.

And please don't ban me Mole, I am being half-way facetious... ;-)

molecool

OUCH - sorry - evil speculator or not but Jew bashing is completely beyond the pale, mate. Some of my friends are Jews. I think you might be better off posting over there: http://bnp.org.uk/

Schwerepunkt

Was that a minor capitulation on the VIX either side of 1321h?

molecool

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¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
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Schwerepunkt

EURO was rejected at 1.50 11-min ago, even though DOW was at a new high for the year. This is the mixed message I'm seeing on the dollar. EUR is weaker than it was at 6 am, but the market is screaming higher. Looks like a rounding top for EURO.

raised_by_wolves

$SPX is at or slightly above the 61.8% Fib fan. Obviously, it hasn't broke 1090 (yet). Bulls need to keep this up and, ideally, close higher.

http://screencast.com/t/pAkz6dzkSPTZ

TomOfTheNorth

Hi Kids,

Mr. Market got you down? Well here are some entrepreneurial ideas to cheer you up & suitable for ANY downturn…….

http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com

Cheers!

Rightside_ot_trade

Bill Cara comments this weekend on GS and Blankfiend:
Goldman Sachs is calling for $85 oil. Maybe they’ll move their oil on BNI now that their buddy Buffett owns the company outright. Yes, it was GS that sold Berkshire $5 billion of GS stock and a further $5 billion in options at rock bottom prices. But, did you hear GS chairman and CEO Lloyd C. Blankfein say that Buffett force the money on them the way his ex-boss Henry Paulson did? What a complete crock of b.s. that guy is.

Yes, Buffett’s Berkshire made billions this quarter because the GS trade was his savior. And yes, Buffett made a bet on the US economy with his take-out of the remaining shares in Burlington Northern. Honestly, I want to puke.

raised_by_wolves

Resistance now equals support on my $INDU short-term channel's 50% meridian.

http://screencast.com/t/pBU5inuK

Schwerepunkt

Resistance is futile; you will be assimilated.

raised_by_wolves

Hehe, well, the bulls have to break 1130 on $SPX for me to consider joining them fully.

WTFed

Is anyone still seeing this as a test of the underside of the trendline that we broke going back to March?

ClutchShorter

I haven't looked at my account balance today =)

molecool

Just don't - trust me - I did and it wasn't pretty.

momac

Yikes again, here we go up higher. so do we sell all of our shorts yet? does this invalidate p3?

Nightwind

A bull's "wall of worry" is a bear's "house of pain".

molecool

Nice thought but I would not describe the past eight months as 'climbing the wall of worry'.

Woolly Llama

Nice line in the sand to short FWLT, but not a fan of the strength

Nightwind

Expecting one more push up

spycharter

You know I don't understand why the dollar will ever reverse. The fundamentals underlying the dollar's decline are that the government keeps printing money and throwing money at all their problems. Until they stop doing that, I think the dollar will keep making new lows. And if dollar debasing is the what keeps extending this rally then I guess we'll just keep rallying then.

weasel_whisperer

I think those short equities are better off hoping for a dollar collapse and the panic that will ensue. I don't think Ben is going to let the dollar strengthen too much, so you're better off hoping it gets away from him on the downside.

BTW, what just happened in the market, did one of the computer get stuck in an infinite buy loop?

Schwerepunkt

Yes, it was God's computer running the Holy Algorithm.

Tronacate

Their black box is modeled after the Ark of the Covenant

Schwerepunkt

LOL! I thought the Ark was in Axum?

Tronacate

Blankstare warming up his box for a day of God's work

http://www.finaltrump.com/wp-content/uploads/20...

Tronacate

Touch it.....you die sucker

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Some one just shot my Teddy Bear

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COrR7NmfblA

hank30

GS is running their engines, don't get in the way.

bshah

since no one wants to answer what is holding Dow at just 150 & up, another one, is who is buying...to keep it afloat...No one wants to sell anymore i? and what @ insider selling and those funda... where did that go...

Tronacate

The chief executive of Goldman Sachs, which has attracted widespread media attention over the size of its staff bonuses, believes banks serve a social purpose and are doing "God's work".

What a fucking douche

Woolly Llama

I think I may change my handle to 'SatanTrader' for the sake of all the God bsh spreading..

Tronacate

lol........666satanservantdevilworshippingtrader

Schwerepunkt

I read that over the weekend. I nearly fell out of my chair.

Tronacate

If he does God's work.......what does that leave for Satan?......

molecool

Read what?

ultra

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_...

Schwerepunkt

The write-up about Blankfein saying GS does "god's work."

molecool

Oh, your comment popped up at the very top without a reference. Fucking disqus.

gsavli

but it's true. they are taking and giving as they please.

BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

They are hiring at Wally World. I think i'm going to apply..F this market and GS....lol

DavidDT

since
1. I am drunk
2. I am in the bad mood
3. I have an unbearable urge to call Bob Pretcher an asshole salesman
we probably will crater from now on...

Vardoger

I'm heading out to do some things and feel inclined to have a liquid lunch as well. Not paying a whole lot of attention to my account balance today, with ISEE in the stratosphere again, volume divergent (again), 8 down days to 5 up, retesting TL x2 resistance, and bonds seeing healthy demand- the only thing I'm pissed about is being early (again x25). Nothing Jameson and Newcastle won't cure. Be well my friend.

tradejane

As long as you don't buy anything you should be ok. Last time I was in the exact same situation you describe I blew up one of my accounts.

DavidDT

the only thing I am buying today is /DX and some puts
and I am shorting everything else (thou I depleted my funds on Friday mostly)

annamall

heheheh :)

Rightside_ot_trade

Anyone looking at Silver? it just pushed through my R1 17.51 daily pivot after rising to R2 pivot overnight. $silver:$gold ratio weakening again past couple of days

Nightwind

vix....down hard

DavidDT

the day when "nothing" ended - we'll be lookkinggg back and we would not believe we liveedd through that crap.
more vodka please

time is 1:15PM EST - mark your calendars

Schwerepunkt

USD sending very confused ST signals. Is the inverse correlation with equities losing its mojo?

bshah

why Dow can't break 150 to downside ?

Nightwind

spx - NO divergences on hourly but way overbought.

LostIllini

Seems like the dollar bottom is tested and the right shoulder has been made. Market you have my permission to tank now.

And thank you Mole for the Usual Suspects, I will return the favor with a scenic tour of your hometown...done Mole style of course.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THyGsXKf9Hg

gregn

I own these shoes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THyGsXKf9Hg#t=6m45s

gsavli

looks very resilient

PRSGuitars

At the 133 of the relevant channel...sigh...

http://screencast.com/t/u58QepyCkf

Already hefty short but about to call it a day. 1082 stop 1086 isnt going to play nice for me, I think.

tradejane

I admire you for being able to see through all these cool lines. My eyes start getting jittery when I have just 2 and they pretty much give up after 3. But yeah, I *think* I can see the point. :)

I'm still waiting for the Dax to go up another 20-30 pts before initiating the shorts, but I might nibble on some SRS (quaint I know) until then.

TransworldDepravity

What kind of car is on your avatar? alpha romeo? classic datsun? Inquisitive minds want to know ;)

tradejane

It's a Maserati Ghibli. Will eat up one's money faster than FAZ on a downtrend without a stop.

miuras

tradejane,
Do you own the Ghibli?

tradejane

LOL I wish. Will need to do some spectacular trading for that to happen.

Rightside_ot_trade

I thought so, designed by Giugiaro!

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

those maseratis ahd some... slight problems

tradejane

I just have one of those "poor mans Ferraris" and they are nearly as bad:

http://www.netcarshow.com/alfa_romeo/1980-alfet...

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

well the gtv was fun, lattern80's were worse

is yours the one where you only have the rpm counter in front of you? (rest of the suff in the middle pannel)

tradejane

Yes, the "tacho", rpm and then the clock - in that order - those are the most important ones! Rest in the middle. Devil made this car.

DavidDT

is that yugo?

bshah

MA sto is over 95... What do we call that..? crazy

Tronacate

Volume is getting more and more pathetic. Somethings gotta give.

gannsecret

It's coming............soon

Me_XMan

If there aren't enough sellers, this market will keep going up. WHERE ARE SELLERS???

Publius Federali

What happens if they open the markets for trading and only the black boxes show up?

Tronacate

Kind of getting like that as it is........kind of like battle of the big blues.......programming contest rather than a "market"........what a fucking mess

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

then they ping pong us to spx 10.000

Centrifugal_Deforest

My accounts are up .000016% right now today

gregn

Republican*

roncofooddehydrator

FAS up against the 200 EMA on the 2hr chart - this should help tell us whether we've got more upside (break through) or if this was just a correction.

roncofooddehydrator

Also, R3 for today is 76.18.

angrywetcat

I just received some bad news about my broker...

http://content.screencast.com/users/angrywetcat...

Nightwind

LOL +1

steveo77

QQQQ Charts....
We are at the 61.8 Fib of the main decline.
Never seeing a market flatline as long as this....

QID for a day trade, tight stop below the days low.

http://screencast.com/t/s52NmwGo

amokta

http://dshort.com/articles/2009/road-to-recover...
finally some 'big-picture' analysis we can rely on !

momac

Yikes, it hurts, it hurts!!!! Make them stop!

berkshire

Sorry for my absence this weekend (and today). I have a lot of work to get done before tomorrow, but I will be sure to be back then. In the meantime, check out this chart I drew up on Friday. Could be something...

http://screencast.com/t/0p1NMLQ42

Skål!

Woolly Llama

What version of eSignal are you using? That software is expensive.

gregn

Very nice, almost all indexes have potential H&Ss

Tronacate

DBB filled the am gap.......metal pullback

dreadwin

As I expected, IYR clawed back today. I sold my DRN at 117, as it looks a bit toppy to me. I don't think we close above 42, but I'm not confident enough to short, either.

TransworldDepravity

I took the trade and in DRV. Draw a trend line on IYR from Sep 17 to Oct 26 high to today. Don't think we close above it. That's what I'm following.

dreadwin

You might have an opportunity for a much better entry (i.e. short MOAR!) about 4 minutes before close if the quants are forced into short covering. Look at an IYR chart for Oct. 14th. IYR promptly tanked the next two days, finding short-term support at 42 (now resistance); so even if this happens you should be okay if you got in at around 42.

CandleStickEmUpper

nice chart Mole. Looking forward to what other ones you have to pull up today.

As for me, I woke up this morning to the wretched smell of bullsh*t when I saw the futures up 10 pts on the s&p, and my account taking it up the backside pretty hard. However i remain short, as I am looking for some retracement here, which should come as early as tomorrow. I will add to my shorts at the close depending on how the day goes.

Centrifugal_Deforest

STRA short rejected on all my broker options.
Any option experts out there to tell me how expensive the puts are right now>?

gregn

How long till expiration?

Centrifugal_Deforest

near term at money

gregn

The spread is ridiculous. More than 2 dollar gap between ask and bid.

Centrifugal_Deforest

Y, that's a problem for getting out. Getting in option i don't mind working an order, but getting out i want out
...i hate options generally

gregn

I am thinking that I going to go back to trading the underlying rather than options. It is very easy to get screwed over. I got in some AIG puts before the earnings, fell 10% overnight and I was marginally in the red -- craziness. And I got in near HOD.

Woolly Llama

Agreed, but vol is cheap right now

Centrifugal_Deforest

...far from expert as i aint no stinking super computer

gregn

When did you get into your Republic In Name Only long?

gregn

Simpler is typically better. You have done pretty well for yourself and you typically stay away from options.

Centrifugal_Deforest

I like options for gambling on a big turn, when premium is very low; sets up good risk/reward.

Otherwise, I'm really not qualified to participate. On top of that, a big spread on a thinly traded contract just means I'm funding someone elses better approach

Centrifugal_Deforest

I think the computers are too good a competition in that field, agree with the plan.

Once in a while though, when premium is low and everyone is leaning on the same side of the ship, options are a great risk/reward gamble.
...I'm far from expert on this though, so just shutting up from here

berkshire

Options only work well when the trend is confirmed. Right now, the trend is not confirmed (or potentially sideways). Neither of which are a good environment for options...

Skål!

gregn

With a sell order they can be good no matter what as you can sell them at the peak of the volatility influx rather than after. I was up a good deal right at opening, but withing 5 mins, the volatility was wiped away. I short have had an at open sale on the puts -- my mistake.

steveo77

maybe if you are selling them...

Tronacate

Saw that too....insane spread there

gregn

What kind of business do you own?

gregn

7.80 ask for DEC 190s sorry 11.40 for 195s

steveo77

Mole, how about that put call chart with trendlines that you have done several times?

molecool

I put it up last night - you didn't see it?

gregn

Look at the previous post.

LostIllini

Having not traded in 99, I imagine that this is how an internet bubble stock would look...

http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold...

DavidDT

yes Sir - that is how it looked and felt - like stupid nonsense - and 1999 was my worst year ever - I was hair away from going broke

Nightwind

Same here David. but it was yr 2000 for me. Didn't go broke but lost a shitload of money

hank30

Slope of advance must be a concern for the bulltards. GS engine may be ready to catch on fire.

fa_q

A low volume push higher followed by a high volume reversal will be a nice tonic. This is the 6th straight advancing day for the S&P. I don't expect us to close at the highs.

gannsecret

Just calculated some Dow targets.
maybe 10203 to 10208

TheMacroEconomist

Back to the Market Profile analysis again, on the 20-day overlay there's a large tick volume bulge at 1083. So it would not surprise me that we oscillate here around 1083 while the market figures out what it wants to do.

I'll be looking to short if ES passes above 1088 and then can't hold it, assuming other intraday signals like NYSE TICK break down.

Woolly Llama

Would love to see your MP! I dont get it from any of my brokers. Download Jing/Screencast if you haven't and start sharing some pics.

molecool

I can understand how you guys are not in a good mood today - that's alright. Go out and take a walk (unless you're snowed in, in which case make love to your spouse). In the end all this shit is just in our heads - think the Matrix ;-)

Tronacate

Boy ain't that the truth.......we think all these externals create happiness......"if only this market would do this or that"........happiness in INTERNAL.

Centrifugal_Deforest

same w my mother in law

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

if certain things hold it will be worth it, even losing money to get things right

Centrifugal_Deforest

Money is better than righteousness - couldn't disagree more with that one

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

yes, but paying for a roadmap and some self discipline isn't. Either I understand what is happening, and I can win, or I can't and I better quit.

there are still questions o equity vs gold and timings to get right

Tronacate

Contentment, charity, and health trump all the gold in the world

Centrifugal_Deforest

Agree, but not in that order ;)

raised_by_wolves

I guess I'm different from the rest of the pack. I'm in a great mood, and there's no way I'd leave this screen. My channels have been extremely useful thus far including the one I have on $VIX.

http://screencast.com/t/FVB7yj8exTZ6

The time to take major action has not yet occurred. Must wait patiently and get my giddiness under control. This is like waiting for Santa late Christmas Eve.*

*Rumor has it that my real age is seven.

Me_XMan

So you have VIX climbing in your channel?

raised_by_wolves

No, the point is that VIX is resting on support at the 25% meridian. I'm waiting for it to spike up or down. If it spikes up enough, I buy puts. If it spikes down, I wait for it reach the next support and see where it goes from there.

For my trading plan, no action is warranted yet. Indeed, I have not placed a single trade yet today. I'm a crouching tiger, er wolf.

Centrifugal_Deforest

I agree actually, but not sure we're really ready for armchair-geddon any time soon.

I would be surprised if today doesnt mark a short term high though

raised_by_wolves

I'm unfamiliar with your geddon reference. What is geddon and what do you mean by it?

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

cub, if a place in israel where the final battle is supposed to happen between the bulls and the bears at eternal EOD eludes you... think bruce willis and aerosmiths

raised_by_wolves

I've never seen that movie but understand now that Armageddon was the reference.

Another case of "Hey RBW! He gets it!"

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

Thought about using ragnarok or Götterdämmerung but thought good old bruce would do the trick ;-)

raised_by_wolves

Thanks Hamster for spelling things out for me.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

always here for you ;-)

Centrifugal_Deforest

Dude, take a walk, get some fresh air and read again.
...just a dumb pun

raised_by_wolves

I would have to change my conditional orders from limit oredrs to market orders before even considering leaving this seat for a quick restroom break. Not going to happen ;-)

raised_by_wolves

I thought you meant this:

Geddon (ゲドン Gedon) is the evil organization based in the Amazon before moving to Japan, bent on world dominion and fueled by human blood.

Centrifugal_Deforest

That guy in an armchair - that's what im talkin about!

raised_by_wolves

Sorry. Had never seen the show. Just read the wiki. Didn't read Mole's Snowmageddon reference either until just now. Swear I'm not blonde. Have ADHD though. Can you tell? Hehe.

steveo77

Thats funny +1

Centrifugal_Deforest

Snowing in LA today?

molecool

At least three feet this morning - it's Snowmageddon over here.

LostIllini

I guess Kaiser Soze wasn't on the ship after all...

molecool

LOL - you just gave me an idea - see next update ;-)

PRSGuitars

Thanks mole -- would love to hear your thoughts on trading psych, too, whenever (in addition to normal TA posts; know you've done those before, just saying, we love the outside the box stuff too).

Centrifugal_Deforest

Actually, Mole quite a good source for mkt psychology. didn't mean to water that down.
...just that i am this shit in this dept !