Bad Fur Day For Bears

Well, it hasn’t been pretty and the daily Zero’s fractal pattern is now at an inflection point – if you are a subscriber go check it out and let me know your thoughts. Before I post a wave count update I have some sad news to report:

AngryWetCat’s broker was found dead in his Queens apartment early this morning. Officials investigating the case insist that there currently is no evidence of foul play, with the exception of a suspicious trail of moist cat litter leading to the chair.

Well, it’s officially bad fur day for the bears (yup, that’s me) and the orange scenario is now in code red mode. We have breached the 78.6 retracement line and I expect a spike up EOD as weak hands are going to cover positions as odds for new highs are now quickly gaining in probability.

2:21pm EDT: Berk seems MIA today – maybe he’s taking the week off – I can’t really blame him. He did however send me a chart a little while ago:

I really want to believe it – just don’t know if I can! LOL ;-)

This entry was posted on Monday, November 9th, 2009 at 2:47 pm and is filed under Elliott Wave Theory, Intraday Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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  • Tronacate
    Wow.......I saw the little selloff thinking we close lower.......I leave for 30 minutes and holy shit.......
  • Publius Federali
    Anyone get the feeling that our markets and economy remind them of this Naked Gun clip?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic
  • vision_invisible
    haha thanks ... "Nothing to see here" is the Fed's balance sheet
  • Guest
  • cramar
    A "turn date" whether Bradley or otherwise is just that—a t-u-r-n date! Which means the market will turn...as in it has been going up for months, therefore it should reverse! If it does not and instead we have a major move in the existing direction, then any system that pegs a "turn date" is just so much BS. I'll give you one day grace on this. If it does not reverse trend tomorrow, then so much for Bradley.
  • I was aware of that - now let's see what really transpires. BTW, the spiral calendar guys also expect this to be a temporary top with one more spike to come after a drop.
  • tfinavia
    Great, but wait, it turned at SPX 1030 a week ago.
  • Marc45
    Is it me or do Mole's charts with the Orange and Blue scenarios always seem to say "the market could go up or it could go down from here"?
  • Not true - I often remove the lower probability scenarios when I don't think they are worth mentioning. And you guys need to understand that there are always various scenarios possible. When I'm clear on a direction I do make it a point to point it out, plus I always tell you guys which way I'm trading.

    But hey, IF it makes you feel better about losing today, just blame Mole's analysis ;-)
  • Guest
    The value lies in identifying where and when markets turn from negative bias to positive bias. It's called trading - it's about putting numbers on scenarios and living or dying by it.
  • But but but... it's so much easier to just blame Mole!!
  • then blame the hamster

    the fall is still in progress, I'll be f"%"ed (literally) if I let a bear scare movement scare an hamster

    this is going to BPSPX 55 whether they like it or not (and 68 was me being a pussy and it hasn't been breeched yet)

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-445F_4AF89B7A.html
  • who's blaming mole? I'll just cry havoc and unleash the hamsters of war!
  • at least he eliminates sideways....
  • slickwilly
    You forgot...Or it could go sideways!
  • Publius Federali
    That is what they should say, if not there would be no risk and we would all be rolling in cash instead of trying to figure out how a market rallies up into the teeth of a depression.
  • Publius Federali
    This rally on no volume says something to me, the problem is I just don't know what. I am looking at the hourly ES and the largest volume for any hourly period in almost six days since we hit the low was the last hour on 11/4, which just so happened to be the largest hourly down move this entire time. Sure enough, the second largest volume is the second hour of Friday, which happens to be the second longest down candle in the run up. I get the feeling that if any selling pressure comes into this market there will be no buyers for it.
  • brendl
    yeah...my sentiments as well. we've had a few days these past two months where buyers were completely absent and thew mkt took a shit. I think its pretty clear we have a major case of collusion here. I get this image in my mind of a greedy kid in the sandbox who takes everyones toys and suddenly has no one to play with. Are we (the bears) leaving the box? Is that whats happening? I think we have to step into the bullies shoes and imagine what it would take for everyone...esp. retail, to step back in the sandbox.
  • Nightwind
    EWI STU might be an interesting read today. New dow high with a new lower USD.
  • gonna make a T-Shirt

    I Slept this rally
  • Woolly Llama
    How about "I've faded the rally for 6 months and all I've got left is this t-shirt"
  • nopes, did 3Xlong may june
  • cramar
    Our only hope is a "Turnaround Tuesday"!
  • newbear
    "You're my only hope"
  • Schwerepunkt
    Obi wan kenobi?
  • CandleStickEmUpper
    Obi-Wan, save us bears
  • TWD
    The Alec Guinness version not Ewan MacGregor version.
  • Schwerepunkt
    haha! great minds think alike. Just saw your response . . .
  • Guest
    I'm going home, have been in the office for last 15 hours. Crazy thing is, I've enjoyed it.
  • Woolly Llama
    Mole, my EOD video suggestion: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTlCUN-lwjY

    I think today is the day I've finally broke; I've f'in had it.
  • thelefteyeguy
    another one of these wtf moments ....there's been many of those over the past few months. Just when you think there's going to be a leg down...*poof*...it's gone and goes up again.
  • fa_q
    I added a 1/4 at 1091. Will save the additional 1/4 for 1105. I LOVED that action into the close. As sick as that might sound, that action was awesome. I would expect us to dick around for a couple days throwing in some doji's and spinning tops. But holy jesus this is going to come down hard. There is NOTHING to support it. Nothing.
  • KK_KK
    crazy up day... when do we top?
  • Guest
    that could be it for while I think. Have to see what happens tomorrow but risk-reward here okay on the short side.
  • TraderGhost
    unbearable
  • What an appalling day.
  • Shorted IYR via DRV near close; my entry is 17.84. Looking for an easy 3-5% tomorrow morning.
  • TWD
    Great entry. I must say that I completely didn't expect the break of 42 on the volume.
  • I don't think anyone expected today's market action. I will say that I'm expecting IYR to consolidate around 42 (touching the 50 MA at 41.73 at the most) before the next leg up. Looking to sell DRV at 18.50-ish. in the first 1/2 hour of trading tomorrow.
  • roncofooddehydrator
    Would love to see a gap up tomorrow so I can get in on some FAZ (not willing to hold it overnight).
  • at close: Added 20% short Dec SPX futures, 1090.25; 1-to-3 day trade for relevant accts
  • PRSGuitars
    Have not seen such size on ES in a long time
  • Schwerepunkt
    I saw a block trade of 17,889 contracts trade at 16:00:09 at 1091 with bid 190.75 ask 1091.
  • Yeah, that is big Ben's delusion of grandeur as he inflates the country to the poor house.
  • Me_XMan
    How big was it?
  • amokta
    bobthehorse - hope your puts dont turn into dobbin !
  • Guest
    Get in. Was filled on the balance of my SPZ9 dec 1050 puts. Right, that now puts me in the bear camp. Good to see you all.
  • Schwerepunkt
    What kind of notional stop do you have in place that I can -- preferably - relate to ES?
  • Guest
    1097
  • Schwerepunkt
    I won't hold ES short overnight, unless an exceptional setup. Just went over 1091 on ES. I didn't think it would., but only 61 contracts so far at 1091.25.
  • Guest
  • WTFed
    Now that is a classic.
  • Me_XMan
    LOL! HAHAHA.
  • Nightwind
    GS is loading up on the futures?
  • ClutchShorter
    Anyone ever considering executing the following?

    For example, when SPY was at $105 :

    1) Execute Jan $106/$116 Bull Call Spread
    2) Execute Jan $105/$95 Bear Put Spread

    At the time, these vertical spreads were out of the money. There should be little theta decay with 3 months left until expiration. Since the Bull Call Spread is NOW in the money (SPY at $109), it should have gained value much faster than the value lost in the Bear Call Spread. Then Close out both positions for a Net Profit.

    Rinse and repeat, with Jan $111/121 Bull Call Spread and Jan $108/$98 Bear Put Spread.
  • Woolly Llama
    After looking at this, you would consider this a straddle-strangle swap correct?
  • Woolly Llama
    I'm not in front of TOS to see risk profile but aren't we talking the opposite of an Iron Condor? Instead of "buying" an IC you are "selling" an IC. Max profit is diff b/t debit paid and $100 strike spread, no?
  • insite
    the strangle spread concept seems interesting to me. i plugged this into TOS to look at the risk profile, and it looks like as long as we don't trade flat, it makes money. what's the down side?
  • ClutchShorter
    You're right, the only downside is if we trade flat but given the time horizon of 3+ months, there "should" be some movement in either direction. If SPY isn't moving in either direction, just get out of the position. The risk/reward is excellent in my opinion and as soon as it goes in the money, profits should mount.

    Or just look for high beta stocks, GOOG, BIDU, FSLR. But I prefer the SPY
  • vision_invisible
    Sad but true, I'm feeling this market is schizophrenic and another personality showing up tomorrow is what one "bets on".
    Last week we had the banks lagging, a pretty big omen and today it's all changed and BAC is up almost 5%

  • fa_q
    What a shite close. At least pump it to the bell. Blow it off, don't dribble it in. Still no volume. Incredible.
  • Schwerepunkt
    Now it's pumping into the close. Shouldn't get higher than 1091ES.
  • fa_q
    Yep, there we go. There's the blowoff
  • Schwerepunkt
    I will not hold ES short overnight in this market. Too many crazy things going on -- hate to wake up 10-pts underwater. I was stopped out at 1088 a while ago made an ENTIRE point of profit. Note the sarcasm. Trend into the close. Not even a 5-pt selloff in the last hour. Odd.
  • gsavli
    and if it does, like it did?
  • Schwerepunkt
    ES.
  • gsavli
    oh
  • gregn
    haha, beat me to the punch
  • Schwerepunkt
    EUR weakened by equities did not. Frustrating.
  • fa_q
    Anything but sideways.
  • TraderGhost
    not sure Elmo is a bear so we might be ok
  • weasel_whisperer
    UWM and TNA have been losing steam in the last 45-60 minutes.
  • WTFed
    Maybe being a bear can get you a doctor's note for med weed in California.

    Bec it damn well should!
  • elliott_surfs
    Best reason I've heard yet. Being a bear in this market can lead to sleepless nights, migraine headaches, extreme bouts of depression. Now gimmeh mah weeeeed
  • Publius Federali
    Doc, I am a very sick man, need a prescription immediately.
  • http://screencast.com/t/aPELPu6NVrg

    Measured move on IHS nearly satisfied.
  • elliott_surfs
    Steve, I'm out on Oahu and was curious.... what exactly does your sleep schedule look like?
  • Up at 4 or up at 6 to 7
  • elliott_surfs
    With DST helping out, maybe I should just suck it up. Thank you Steve =) Always appreciate your commentary btw
  • My profitability is higher when I get the market open....and have my brain screwed on to understand the days market dynamics...today...didn't even have a chance to review and blog ideas prior to being pummeled.
  • Schwerepunkt
    I think they ran out of time to achieve it today. Should drop now.
  • Profit tanking, errr. taking to commence shortly. For those of you watching the market those red "things" mean that the price of the equity is going down....
  • ClutchShorter
    I did a quick study. I simulated trading an equity based on flipping a coin. If I flipped a head, I would buy the equity. If I flipped a tail, I would short the equity. If I am down 5% on my trade or up 50%, I immediately sold/covered the position. I don't flip the coin again until I close out the position. I did this 120 times from March - November. With an initial investment of $10,000, it grew to $36,000. The average profit per trade was $1500, average lost per trade was $300. I hope I did the math correctly.
  • Biffermas
    The coin flip illustrates the simple rule that money management and a trading plan (actually followed) matters far more than entry point. Most traders focus entirely on setups, not exits, which is why they possess substandard trading returns.
  • eurobear
    That would have been near impossible in the last 6 months due to almost daily gaps. Its easy to put the lines in the sand but often the lines get skipped
  • Pyramid, or at least hold gains and unload losses in a hurry. Do it properly and you can be wrong more often than right and still make decent coin; yep
  • ClutchShorter
    Maximize gains, minimize losses, it's about expectancy

    20% winners at $1000/profit, 80% losers at $100/loss = .2 ($1000) - .8 ($100) = +$120
    vs
    80% winners at $100/profit, 20% losers at $1000/loss = .8($100) - .2($1000) = -$120
  • gregn
    Was that a EWI issued coin?
  • Tronacate
    Trending market......differential risk with a 50% chance........the trend made it work
  • TheCrowe
    Seems like the trick is to find a trending market, no?
  • Thanks for restatement (club myself upside the head now) of the obvious.
  • TheCrowe
    If you can spot a trending market, it's not a matter of if, but rather how much, your system can make. Spot the turn baby...
  • Guest
    I have now taken my delta back to flat and now added a quarter position of dec 1050 puts, looking for a little pop to 1091 to add another quarter.
  • centerline
    Just added some Dec SPY 109 puts about 20 minutes ago. Otherwise been sitting on my hands today watching the action. The market got a few points beyond what I thought it would do today post 10:00-10:30 range (my personal timeframe lately outside of market open before I would initiate any position for the day). 6 days up in a row should provide at least a few points pull back tomorrow IMO.
  • Guest
    When we went long, I had 1090 as a 6 week target. We are here inside 5 trading days on low volume. Perversely that's a positive as it means we now have a pretty good chance of going to 1000, and possibly even 920 where I will get longer than the longest thing in the world.

    The market is definitely vulnerable here as it got to a value area with weak supports below. I freely admit that if it goes through 1091, I will have to reassess.
  • Guest
  • Schwerepunkt
    Short ES1089. Expect a drop to 1085 or 1081 by EOD.

    EDIT: So far so good. I'm trying for singles and doubles, not swinging for the fences.
    Edit 2: I'm out. EUR turned up just now and so I lowered my stop to 1088. An almost pointless trade. 1-pt to be exact. I think that qualifies as a scalp. Now it's looking like a fake-out on EUR as it is not pointing down again.
  • TheMacroEconomist
    I'm still net 20% long (mostly the SPX bull put options spread) since I lightened up at ES 1085 area.

    Interesting that the Russell didn't take on its resistance at 593. It's possible the battle for the tape will get deferred another day, but we will see.
  • PRSGuitars
    If this is a short squeeze it won't get any better or easier, though. That's what worries me most. Can't really do anything to fight it, and its not like we can ID when to short -- which blowoff top is the one we're seeking?

    Sucks to look at a huge green daily candle on the lowest volume I can see. Want to stay short very badly but am quite close to getting shaken out as this is just misery - like an Eco-Drive/Citizen watch, fucking unstoppable.

    Forgive the brief whine. Now back to the grind!
  • Scoops
    Added puts today. Amazon ain't movin. January 120/105 Bear Spread is too juicy for me to pass up. Debit 3.80 max reward 1120. Added onto the one I bought last week for around 4 bucks.
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Interesting chart there from Berk. I haven't been following the NDX, have my hands full with SPX and RUT.

    In any case we are at the point now where the trade gets interesting - from a number of technical perspectives.
  • momac
    Ok, I've started scaling out of shorts a bit. It can go lower now.
  • LMAO, Everybody see the H&S on SPY, nobody believes it though. WHAT IF a H&S does what it should and tank this POS Rally. I expect heavy selling into the close to be continued tomorrow..... or.....

    Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor....Now who's with me!
  • centerline
    Yeah. I see a handful of these around on various charts. The only thing that bugs me is the volume at the head versus left shoulder. On the flip side, right shoulder weakness so far looks good. Not exactly a textbook H&S, but something to watch for sure.
  • Me_XMan
    Shorted a little here.
  • CandleStickEmUpper
    I just loaded up on SPY Dec 106 Puts at 1.95
  • PRSGuitars
    DX starting to get a little volume -- still under vwap for the day but wouldn't THAT be a sassy reversal (yeah, yeah, trade what IS...). Waiting to see.
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Well, the Energies are taking some pressure off of the dollar. CL has retraced back to where I hit my limit and cashed in my oil barrels at 10:15. Ida's been sheared out and max winds are below hurricane force.
  • gregn
    Interesting fib pattern from July to present: Rally, correct, rally to 161% of high from low then Rally, correct, rally to 161% of high from low then Rally, correct, rally to 133% of high from low and now we are rallying again nearing 100% of high to low. I am thinking we rally to 133% or 100% again then correct. Charts:


    1st: http://screencast.com/t/N3TALJNW4yW0
    2nd: http://screencast.com/t/LOQtZeAoh
    3rd: http://screencast.com/t/zjOSDQKElgjZ
    Current: http://screencast.com/t/3tVvP7DoW6
  • fa_q
    Just an aside, if we don't get a sell into the close, that's not a bullish move. Quite the contrary. A final shove of distribution up into the bell would actually be more bearish than a close at 1082. I'm cool with either way. If they want to take this to 1100 again, fine. When we were at 1020 I said it wasn't the last time we'd see 1070. Now that we're at 1090, we haven't seen the last of 1050.
  • Cypherd
    picked up some IYR Dec 44 puts just now. Looking to set up a spread and sell the 42s for ~$2.15 by the end of the week.
  • Schwerepunkt
    EUR back at 1.5. Key level. Pushing up to the top of the range for the day.
  • centerline
    Ah. Ramp and camp is back today. More fun than a barrel full of monkeys.

    Seems to me the short-term bullish scenerio is flat tomorrow (maybe a little down) then resume the climb with target of 1120 before she rolls over (again). Timing IMO seems to be end of week to the beginning of next week for the new high. Only real resistance at this point is the previous high.

    Short-term bearish scenerio would seem to me that we turn right here today - but odds are slipping away quickly - overthrow beyond the 78.6 fib sustained pretty good so far today. I would probably be inclined to say previous high is next stop - on Wednesday or Thursday. If not, the bear prays for a blow-off top by accelerating into 1120 before week's end without any meaningful consolidation (deep into overbought territory).

    Sound reasonable?
  • Woolly Llama
    Why even bother picking tops and rollovers at this point? Dip buy for the next decade....wooohooo, i'm headed to the looney bin. Don't short, go long or die trying.
  • centerline
    It sure seems that way. Close eyes - go long - turn-off computer. Come back months later and collect profits. Sure beats my system, no doubt.

    I agree about calling tops... just looking at the fractals and getting some feel for where I personally might change stance (or underwear at this rate).
  • Woolly Llama
    Although I don't quite have the pyschology to stand up to this shit anymore, it just proves the need for a diversification of methods and ability to adapt. Think of how well true trend-following systems have done.
  • gregn
    I think Lester said something similar about a month ago. But he was serious.
  • Woolly Llama
    Haha. You think me not serious? No more puts. Does anyone know where I can buy calls on the triple inverse of my equity curve. Take that to the bank.
  • gregn
    I am going to try to short sell my account then buy some puts. Talk about hedging.
  • Tronacate
    FWLT doing some wierd stuff here
  • fa_q
    That was the exact move I was looking for. I'm not talking a full reversal. I fully expect 5-8 points to come off in the last hour. 1082-1084 is my target on ES
  • ClutchShorter
    I'm developing a trading system that would isolate my emotion from poor decision making. Thoughts on the following :?

    -Never risk more than 5% of my portfolio in any one trade
    -Determine entry/exit based on technical analysis
    -Minimize losses by having mental stops
    -Never trade more than 10 contracts per position and reduce contract size by half if 3 consecutive losses are realized
    -Exercise discipline and don't let ego get the best of you
    -20% $1000 winners and 80% $100 losers are BETTER than 80% $100 winners and 20% $1000 losers

    Anyone want to add to this? As you can see, I've completely lost it so I need to reassess my trading approach.
  • tradejane
    I remember Anna saying that you're good and I don't think she says that easily.

    If risk management is all you need to learn then you're set. Of course that can be the hardest thing to learn sometimes.

    I'm not a very good trader but I have some extreme risk management in place (thanks to some tough experiences,) I bail out at a 1% loss, no exceptions.
  • Schwerepunkt
    Spooge.
  • gregn
    We have an almost identical fractal from last mini rally. Expect a tiny pull back near term that will be considered the beginning of P3 and time to load up on SPY puts then bounce higher: http://screencast.com/t/xTugU5aUiQ
  • tradejane
    Speaking of identical fractals, I've been watching one building in one of the German banks...

    http://www.screencast.com/t/4SOAWyUNr

  • sirgiyan
    !!!NOW SERIOUSLY!!!

    3 factors I'm waiting for to go short ALL-IN

    1) VIX closes gap at 22 +/- 0.1
    2) IYT reaches 71,25
    3) XLF reaches 15

    F@KING PERIOD!

    (I'm desperate as you probably have probably noticed)

    Gonna buy:
    XLF Dec Puts (strike 15)
    XLE Dec Puts (strike 58)
    and some SPXU below 40 (just for the f@ck of it)
  • denali92
    Mole,

    How about the hairless bears

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1225042/Germanys-bald-bears-Fur-disease-afflicts-Dolores-baffles-vets.html


    Markets LOVE to do the UNEXPECTED! Amazing how many people were dying to re-short 1070 - 1080 last week and now they are all gone.... Sadly, caution is warranted until they find out what is causing the bears to lose their hair
  • Guest
  • gannsecret
    Molecool,
    My greatest fear is that last years reversion of the Glass-Stegall banking bill.
    The law that prohibits banks from being in the brokerage business now lets the new banks, Goldman, BAC (Merril Lynch) JPM have full access to minipulate the markets. It may be past analysis that worked in "free" markets is done. The "CRISIS" allowed Paulson to put the Investment banks under control of the Fed and now these Banks/investment Houses can draw on the highly leveraged FED money. And control what they want, that was the idea behind the "crisis" .
    Best part though is they got the public to pay for it. Brilliant
  • Tronacate
    I know damn well when I close my account the crash will start......never fails
  • Close now...please!
  • I wish market could do the same as what they are doing in Berlin.....look at that domino wall falling apart.
  • Schwerepunkt
    What's the lowest NYSE TRIN anybody here has seen? It's 0.33 right now. Pretty low.
  • PRSGuitars
    I know i sound wacky but something is really not right. I think this tape is going to melt down a little bit. Nothing spectacular, just saying this is the intraday fade (was just a *few* points early, eh, ahem). From my aforementioned evidence, A/D divergence + EUR stopped exploding + failing to achieve 1088-1090 on lowering RSI strength...
  • fa_q
    The low volume push higher call was correct. Now the high(er) volume reversal into the close is needed.
  • gsavli
    that down on volume just wouldn't come... this is a genuine short squeeze. do you think it's time to reasses and maybe close partially?
  • fa_q
    You clearly don't know how I trade or how I've banked nearly 30k ES points this year. Close here? I just opened the position. 7% rally of declining volume? Uh, not a chance in hell. I will short this set up every freaking day and twice on Saturday (market used to be open on Saturdays).
  • PRSGuitars
    Yeah looking at this on an hourly chart makes me want to puke (literally, ES, vertical). Just bewildered by the lack of meaningful divergences playing out or pullback thus far (but I guess that's part of your plan -- the bigger they are...).

    So you're in ES 1078/NQ 1740ish? Just curious. I'm ES 1083 and NQ 1755.
  • fa_q
    1074.25/1752.50
  • PRSGuitars
    Agreed, hard NOT to take this short at least for a swing.

    http://screencast.com/t/96hrlMnavyVd

    Now about the bankroll (and the size balls you're working with)...
  • fa_q
    Took years to build up both
  • Tronacate
    Just stick around......no running off for a week with some slut........
  • fa_q
    You're right, cyber-hanging out with a bunch of uber-depressed bears seems like much more fun :)
  • Tronacate
    That's right.....you just get your priorities straight......consider it a penalty for a debauched lifestyle.......:)
  • gregn
    No bulls here my friend. Except for Mole.
  • gsavli
    yeah, that one, whatsherename lol
  • gsavli
    thus far, i've have learned, you are good at this and that's about the only thing i have to know :)
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