Snorefest Wednesday Rub Down

I have to run to an appointment, so only the chart for you rats as a snapshot of today’s tape:

Program Trading Update:

geronimo/ES: +0.5
resident.evil/ES: -2.5

Cheers!

Mole

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 11th, 2009 at 5:29 pm and is filed under EOD Wrap Up, geronimo, resident.evil, zero. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • Me_XMan
    SPX 1070 on the docket...
  • Tronacate
    Shorted CROX earlier
  • ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸
  • A chart to gladden the heart

    http://screencast.com/t/NTFjMzlkMTIt
  • Tronacate
    Today is actually setting up pretty well....... move down.....metals down.....stronger dollar.......
    letting the yuan float with the hot Chinese economy could result in just the opposite of assumed....the dollar could strengthen alot...
  • It seems to me that for such a large rally in the dollar today, stocks are blowing it off. There seems to be some sort of disconnect today.
  • Funny you should say that - I just posted about it.
  • As the say...... Great minds think alike! :)
  • Guest
    Today has been dull. Made worse by the fact that someone drew a flush on the river in the late stages of a partypoker tourny while I was holding kings and queens and all in.

    Strategy remains sit on flat delta with dec 1050's whilst this whippy topping phase exhausts everyone else. 1087 breaking would be the first sign we are going to make money. 1060 is the medium-term support.
  • it's getting interesting, LOD, the timing is right... might get a trend day down
  • Bearinator
    Oil bubble may be bursting soon.
  • sure hope so, my ERYs are killing me
  • I am imagining that Mole is holed up in the evil mountain lair right now playing some suitable music for the occasion...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FXoyr_FyFw&feature=related
  • I'm imagining that our glorious leader decided to have a normal evening yesterday and wake up at proper hours for the west coast.

    Might as well, he's holding his shorts so today is a non event, either way
  • I'm on the case boys - just finished my first post.
  • BTW, when you count, take into account nasdaq did NOT make a new high. I know EWT does not allow 2's beyond 1 but... we are no longer in kansas
  • good to see you back, I'll check it out ASAP

    p.s. we've got another "touchy leave" FA_Q
  • gregn
    Not sure if anyone else posted a chart on this, but there is a big time positive volume divergence in /DX: http://screencast.com/t/ZDkyYTliY
  • gmak
    I don't understand why this is called a divergence. Volume rising = DXY rising. Dxy falling = volume falling.
  • it's called "i don't believe the fall"

    don't sell a quiet market after a fall
  • gmak
    <thumbsup>




    ________________________________</thumbsup>
  • thanks, it's a classic phrase

    and ... thanks for the mrning updates, I don't say it enough but I know you know they are highly appraised
  • gregn
    Looks like /DX is going to retest that oh-so-important 76 again.
  • I would love to see a break above the 50 day MA.
    http://screencast.com/t/NTY1MGQ3
  • gregn
    You and me both, brother.
  • CorporalCarrot
    Powerful move in the DXY folks, yet equities seem totally unfazed. Is there a delayed reaction here or what?
  • gmak
    Correlation is not causation. I just got back from a meeting and it looks like the stops in EUR below 1.490 got swept. I doubt that it was part of the linked liquidity pools that would lead SPX to drop as well.

  • tail and dog are in a wagging contest and considering divorce...

    kidding, Mole showed several charts where you see equities lag FX
  • Bounced off support dating back to start of year - http://screencast.com/t/ZjA4MTk1Y2Y

    If we go through that...
  • don't make me salivate
  • ClutchShorter
    Wow UUP is going up. Market isn't really reacting much.
  • Well, it's either (i),(ii) of v up or v,(i),(ii) down - anyone's guess right here...
  • just courious, can anyone indulge a crazy hamster and do an s&p or a nasdaq NET of the gaps? Don't know if any software could do it easily enough

    I have a very interesting theory on that one...
  • BTW where is our beloved and fearless leader?

    MOLE! wake up and come watch the paint dry
  • TWD
    Nasdaq outperforming and UUP up big. 22.50 looks like a nice support level if it can hold it. Happy my AAPL calls are keeping me in the green...so far.

  • Covered Euro short here for now just now.
    ...will like to go in again today if no real recovery
  • Me_XMan
    If today dollar gain holds, SPX will be red tomorrow.
  • Tronacate
    FSLR taking a pounding
  • centerline
    Just came back. What the F was that? Pretty nasty taking out the 1100. I am sure that a mess of both buy and sell orders were sitting there.
  • dollar
    bght more sds and qid, any other bears out there?
  • are you kidding? just us hamsters (but grandpa was a grizly)
  • Me_XMan
    Bought some more SDS and UUP yesterday.
  • ClutchShorter
    Do you need to take Series 7, Series 63 exam to open up your own small business for trading? Just a thought.
  • angrywetcat ©
    You need the 65 to charge fee-based.
  • Some great contrary indicators when you take those classes.
    ...worth the effort alone
  • Cypherd
    If you plan on charging a fee in order to manage other people's money, yes.
  • ClutchShorter
    OMG, it just went negative. This is like Christmas. (sarcasm)
  • Me_XMan
    UUP rocking...
  • gsavli
  • Euro brk now
  • Euro testing lod here. commod's down; should be the larger force given the lack of strong mkt breadth; we'll see
  • gsavli
    I saw, you closed your SKF position at a loss. Quite bullish, eh? Almost no corelation whatsoever with USD, when it's gaining strength.
  • I'm on pins and needles like anyone else here. but still holding majority of my short lone so far
  • gsavli
    same here (and elsewhere, as you noted). I think, it could break anytime, due to stronger USD, but then again, this does look very bullish.
  • Me_XMan
    Bulls are running out of steam.
  • Euro is an ankle weight at moment.

    Hopefully some cement applying and a toss over board to come
  • gsavli
    It better come soon since carry trade still works when USD goes down. It would have to be institutional sellers, but they're nowhere to be seen...
  • Me_XMan
    The leverage play on the dollar is huge for SPX. Watch for major correction on the dollar.
  • gsavli
    On the dollar??? I thought USD just made a correction and now it's equities' turn?
  • Me_XMan
    I see SPX correction is coming tomorrow.
  • That is only on Market Guru; it replaced the GS short; which I did cover
  • gregn
    How many accounts do you manage?
  • never more than 10
  • 11 if you count Mktguru :)
  • gregn
    That's very impressive, I struggle to manage just one.
  • I focus on one strategy mainly and I have some help.
    A second strategy trades less often
  • gregn
    Does your mentor still trade? If so, what is his view on the current market?
  • He is not trading. He wants to be long until there is a clear break and he is not very optimistic for coming years
  • gregn
    What is your threshold for that? SPX 1000?
  • If it looks like it will close above 1101 i have to adjust
  • gregn
    I am talking about your mentor's account. What is your threshold for jumping out of his long position? Where is the 'clear break'?
  • He is net-short at moment ;)

    ...but it is a light line and it gives me a better opp at buying the pullback. Then if mkt doesn't catch a bid, I let go longs and hold short, whereas if mkt catches a bid I have the longs and let go the short; something like that.

    I cannot ride short and lose money though, or I am going to be in hot water.

    Dont lose money, right
  • He is my largest account
  • gregn
    Ironic. ;)
  • BTW, did you see this chart I posted some hours ago? (for what it's worth)

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-7755_4AFB9882.html
  • You DO like lots of lines.......

    j/k Hamster, nice chart. The price action looks nicely contained. Does it indicate to you that stocks are going down, gold is going up, a combination of the two or an outcome I haven't yet contemplated?
  • I would consider a mix of price correction (keep the bull ilusion barely) and gold to 1300 1400

    I thought diferently and made the bad call of just shorting equities

    p.s. those extra lines came into play and should come into play again
  • I did, I did. Very nice - the evidence for the new secular bull market just keeps on piling up around our ears...
  • what scares me is that if this line fails we have to find some very old lines to hold this sucker down
  • selling showing some strengh on tbe price tape... hummm
  • tradejane
    The selling was expected and exactly what I counted on, but I didn't count on the DAX making a new high for the day. That normally doesn't bode well.
  • we'll see, there are some major resitences in play right now, at least in real terms
  • tradejane
    Agreed. The good news is, all major indications are still weak and pointing to a serious correction at some point, but imo for very short-term trading we'll need some real selling to negate that new day high.
  • nasdaq is still contained by the october high, major divergence...
  • This would be a *fantastic* time for a failed fifth
  • CandleStickEmUpper
    SPX 1300, then we might have a small correction
  • CorporalCarrot
    lol thats hilarious!!!!!
  • ClutchShorter
    Wow, this tape disgusts me. Day after day after day after day, rally rally rally rally
  • it's a rigged game, this morning pumps, but there is fight going on, someone's selling the rise hard
  • today they're giving all they can to break a new high on nasdaq
  • Ok - looks like we discount the out of hours prices - SPY triangle apparently lives after all - http://screencast.com/t/MTljZDRjYzQt

    not sure how this fits into the overall wave structure, because a Z should be abc, non? In this case I can count complete a la kemal_1's count yesterday.

    Watch closely.
  • CorporalCarrot
    Here come the dip buyers.....right on time :)
  • I'll bring the chips....
  • tradejane
    Shhh, you'll scare them away!
  • CorporalCarrot
    Well I did predict it earlier!!!!!!!!!!! Up up and away. Nothing can stop this market. :)
  • tradejane
    Oh, oh, time for Plan B, as the DAX just made a rocket launch! Careful, bears.
  • could be, maybe, the last wave up? looking at a 2 hr charts...LOOKS like 5 wave up..so MAYBE we get at least a correction..or MAYBE more???
  • tradejane
    Well, as long as Commerzbank and DB remain weak we can pretend it's building a right shoulder.
  • TWD
    IYR looking weak here on a 3-5 day chart. Possible double top with a large divergence on MACD.
  • tradejane
    Yes, it looks promising. All we need now is the DAX to close below 5650 in 25 minutes and we'll be set. (Joking, sort of.)
  • Cypherd
    INTC halted until a minute ago.
  • Darkthirty
    Is the CME live quote site down, or is it my system?
  • CorporalCarrot
    Anyone else thinking that after the initial weakness is negated by the dip-buyers that we melt-up today to try to recapture yesterdays' highs?
  • roncofooddehydrator
    I'm looking for FAS to come back down to around the 30 EMA before going up again.
  • Schwerepunkt
    Yup, but today there is also competition from the bond pit for money.

    Edit: and the 30-year auction is today too.
  • Guest
    I am not trading right now - I think the risk-reward has gone from the long side but until we break 1087 ESZ9, nothing to do. I am just sitting on my hands with my 1050 dec puts getting into online fights with other blog readers.
  • if you try that you'll be sitting on my furry boots

    LOL
  • CorporalCarrot
    lol go and shill for your fund or something. Any bets on the world cup qualifiers this weekend?

    We are all crapping ourselves about the French Game.
  • Guest
    I haven't really thought about the World Cup since I don't know when.

    Oh yes I do. When England qualified easily.
  • centerline
    Sounds like you are in UK. I have family in London - but given the dollar destruction, I may never see them again!
  • Guest
    Compared to Sterling, the dollar is in good shape
  • USDJPY looks like breaking out 2hr chart
  • Re-posted
  • couldn't agree more, that's why I still see 5000+ in the cards
  • A slightly contrary opinion Duuuuuude - re: most commodities, there is price elasticity due to substitution but, when ag supplies tighten, they tend to tighten (to varying degrees) across all ags & raise all prices.

    Silver would be the obvious gold substitute for non-industrial uses - and may provide some elasticity to gold prices.....
  • under normal conditions yesw, when there is a good recession GOLD/silver ratio goes ape-shit up
  • Schwerepunkt
    I know the arguments. And it does have some validity as a financial instrument. But, it is also "consumed," although it doesn't get eliminated. Indians buy gold as jewelry and as a wealth store/statement, but when the price is high, they tend to cut back. I wish the "cash-for-gold" guys were advertising in India! Actually, though, gold jewelry in traditional countries is bought and sold purely by weight plus a very small markup. I'll ask you this: why did gold drop last fall as the financial crisis was just getting heated up?

    I don't want to overstate my case. I didn't mean to say gold is like any other commodity, I recognize it is "special." But it's not immune to the laws of supply and demand and the price elasticity issues.
  • Of course, at some point supply and demand will put an end to it, but it will be at a much higher level than most of us are willing to believe. Nobody ever thought we would see oil last summer near $150, or corn near $8, both which trade today at half those levels. Why would it not then be feasible to see gold at $2000 or higher? If world wide panic takes place, I think you could see that happen in an instant. I don't think we have seen panic happen yet.
  • last fall (september) was CBs trying to pin gold down and equities up... ended nicely, hope they try again

    see my nasdq:gold chart from 8 or 9 hours ago
  • Schwerepunkt
    BTW, for the sake of full disclosure, I am talking my book to some extent! I'm a yank living in Canada and most of my money is in . . . USD. I should have changed it all to CAD in early March, but didn't. ;-(( Hence, I really don't want to see gold at $5K.
  • if you're lucky you might get higher usd and lower gold (it's currently at the trend line) but on a long timefreme I see usd doing a fall stronger than 1980... might end up 0.3 on the euro
  • Schwerepunkt
    I'm hoping for a repeat of last year with a bout of asset price deflation, a renewed credit crunch, a stock market crash, de-leveraging USD denominated debt and flight to safety, all of which should result in a higher USD. What will gold do THIS TIME if that happens? I don't know. I'm hoping for 1.25 or higher on CAD:USD.
  • sorry, I don't follow CAD
  • Jim Rogers has good write ups on Gold
    the bottom line - gold is just another commodity...with its own cycles
  • CorporalCarrot
    Awwww...I love it when people kiss and make up.
  • ClutchShorter
    Has anyone testing Berk's BB system? Any feedback/results? It looks promising
  • tradejane
    I tried out a very simple variation of that in two stocks (ASIA and MO) and it went really well. Don't want to go into much detail until I see this working over a longer period.

    The only thing I can tell you is that I had to change the system every time to suit the personality of the stock in question.
  • The worst thing about the AMD blast-up is we'll have to hear Cramer taking credit
  • weasel_whisperer
    He'll tell us it's a clear sign that the economy is recovering.
  • have you heard of "CNBC noise canceling headphones"?
    Switch is right there, see - that "power button"
  • Never!
  • Oh, sorry, forgot of indispensable Trish indicator...
  • Several money makers there, just that she is golden.

    this meathead right now for ex
  • anyone short AMD just woke up
    ...blood flowing now - ready to meet the new day
  • tradejane
    That looks...exciting. Do they work that way in reverse too?
  • sit down and ill tell you a story
  • Did they just release a non-shitty processor? no.....*yawn* wake me they go out of business....
  • momac
    Crap, I am. what the heck happened?
  • 1.25B settlement w intc will do it.
    ...tough spot, sorry
  • momac
    First BNI and now AMD. I think I should stick with the indexes.
  • Back to nature for you this wkend. Get outdoors and excercize - clear the head.

    Make this a positive after you recover.
    ...best luck
  • ClutchShorter
    Morning Rats. Even small trading firms managing $20-$50 million in assets have taken a hit in their accounts. My friend told me his firm suffered a million dollar loss after going in FAZ on a big position when the unemployment #s came out last week. All the traders are complaining in his firm and other firms are literally speechless. This tells us me that all of us pretty much on the same page in terms of this uptrend losing steam. But what it doesnt tell me is who is manipulating this upwards (BIGGER/LARGER hedge funds, banks?)

  • tradejane
    Well, well, well. I'm sorry to hear I'm not the only one who's donated money to the FAZ cause. I used to turn up my nose at SRS, back then. Too slow. For some reason I like slow moving stocks much better now. :D
  • gmak
    If you took my suggestion to go short ES around 1093.50ish, I would suggest taking a quick scalp. I'm seeing higher lows on ES and the 1090.75 pivot is holding.
  • CorporalCarrot
    As a chilling sign of what will happen when all the bullshit stimulus is withdrawn............

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-purchase-mortgage-filings-plummet-mba-2009-11-12

    "CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The volume of mortgage applications filed to purchase homes last week hit the lowest level in nearly nine years, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday.

    Applications for loans to buy homes fell a seasonally adjusted 11.7% in the week ended Nov. 6 from with the previous week -- bringing volumes to their lowest since December 2000. The Washington-based MBA's weekly survey covers more than half of all applications filed for U.S. retail residential mortgages.

    Applications to refinance existing home loans, on the other hand, rose 11.3% on a week-to-week basis, the MBA said. "

  • centerline
    Asset destruction continues. Sad. It amazes me that we don't count home values as part of the deflationary calculations. If we did, it would be very painfully clear that we are caught in a serious deflationary spiral. Inflation is in the future, but the current enemy it is not. This is why, IMO, the fed continues to scramble to devalue the dollar.
  • CorporalCarrot
    Unemployment claims 502k. Better than expected. Dollar and equities little changed.

    Bob if I read this correctly in this fucked up topsy-turvy world, good news is bad because good news implies an early end to free money rising interest rates stronger dollar yadda yadda yadda. In this case its neither really bad enough to imply an even longer period of recession which would cause equities to rally, but its not really enough of an improvement to imply a quicker ending of QE, so we keep the status quo?

    Am I learning??????? :D:D:D
  • Guest
    At the moment yes, equities want news to be good but not too good as this means we are getting better and they won't end stimulus. Very good news is bad as it means end of stimulus. Bad news is bad as we have run of bullets.
  • Schwerepunkt
    Why can't we all just get along?

    I stole that line from a punching bag.

    I like and appreciate both bob and fa_q, and think this blog would be a poorer place without one or both of them.
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