Damn bastards not done with jerking USD lower.

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http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12722#disqus_thread

Skål!

Euro really indecisive at this level. Flipping around either side of 1.4885 for the last hour.

I can't post charts (yet), but draw a trendline on /DX low of $74.85 on 11/11 to now (30 min chart) and see how that line is holding.

I don't think the move down yesterday is part of a large impulse down......imo we're still in a complex 4th wave and we're about to spend the rest of the day painting a large wedge between 1095 and 1085......

Right. Am going home. Mkt behaving very strangely, sovereign CDS showing highest stress levels since March, equities finish at high of day. Am increasingly convinced we are due a decent drop - only problem is no idea when and where from. Will sleep soundly with my Dec 1050's.

Have a great weekend, Bob. Tape has been really interesting, yes. I expect we will find out the reason soon enough...

Get yourself back to the stables and put your hooves up - you've earned it.

Okay I bailed. The USD game is not over yet.

The institutions are going to mess with us in every way possible. Their job is harder now than it ever has been due to the playing field being leveled out technology-wise. But one common denominator remains from 1929-1930, psychological warfare. This drop, for those willing to hang on to the bitter end, will have their lives changed forever financially. Only put in what you are truly willing to lose before the drop. Otherwise, wait for confirmed lower highs/lows and get in on pull backs. If you are not sleeping at night because of your positions, get out.
I thank Mole and Berk for their insights and know in the end, this will roll over and puke all over itself.

Remember this: There is not one single Govt that has EVER avoided a natural cyclical change in the markets dating back to the 1600s. This just happens to be the 75 year cycle......depression, unfortunately not the 10 year recessionary cycle. If the govt pulls this off somehow, then Mount Rushmore will need to add one more bust to the Mountain.......Obama.......

Well said.

See the latest writing on Karl Denninger.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

http://screencast.com/t/NjY0MzRkZ I think we will rally to the downtrend line then have big sell off, like last time.

there it goes

and stops....

Edit: http://screencast.com/t/NjY0MzRkZ

I think we will rally to the downtrend line then have big sell off, like last time.

Sorry folks... Late start today. I will be back with a post in a few...

Skål!

Hey Berk ,,How Goes It..

Wanted to show you this Chart ! it Has Merit,,, And Hits on Monday ,,Give or Take A Day.....''

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder...

sharp eyes indeed, thank you for sharing

Awesome chart Joe. Seems to correspond well with the 40 day cycle you had mentioned a while back. I am still seeing one last push up towards 10450 in $INDU, but that chart says a lot. Probably right at the 50% channel line too, huh?

Thanks for posting that.

Skål!

Hey Joey - I think EWI might be fans of yours - they had reconstructed this chart in the STU last night

Really ....That's Nice....lol

50dma proved resistance for SPX http://screencast.com/t/MWE1NTQ3NW

Is that the 50 hourly sma?

15min sma.

COCOA contining its downward march

RIMM might be breaking down out of a bear flag here

Consumer dying just in time for Christmas........

No future here for longs... FAZ is now where it was at SPX 1085 and EURUSD 1.4830.

One of my short candidates MCD going parabolic and about to make new closing high on weekly
http://screencast.com/t/MmFjNzBmYjkt

Nice one -- looks good for a retrace at least. Spreads or straight short?

straight short. waiting until I see the whites of their eyes; today possibly. then loading up again for when it retreats (breaks below 70 in RSI7 Daily)

Greek CDS moving out swfitly

similar to maltese ;)

Yeah, I watch those like a hawk! LOL

Short ES1092.25. EUR at extreme short-term overbought levels.

Edit: scalped out for small gain 1091.50. We might be heading for the 1097.5-1098 area. EUR trying to move higher here.

BAC smackdown coming up

head fake Friday?.......If so, should be just about done.

might as well be. If skynet doesn't pump financials, that are not following at all right now...

And this thing cannot go higher without them.

SPY update - http://screencast.com/t/ZGFjMTA1Yj

/edit - corrected link...

Wrong link. That's for Amazon.

yeah sorry - refresh the page - I corrected it

Amazon bear spreads are on sale.

there it is- 10 point pop off the lows for no reason. Maybe it was the confirmation that the consumer is retreating. Nice to be involved in such efficient markets.

yeah, major market rallies usually end on good news...

news has been good for 3 months though - hah =)

Here's a chance to get shorts IMO.

financials look weak...

They don't just look weak, they ARE weak. :)

Not that they don't have another rally in them, they do. I fully expect UYG to run to the 5.90 area again at some point.

I think skynet would have to help them a bit...

FAz down only 30 cents from the high at SPX 1085 and EURUSD 1.4830

AMZN a la TK - http://screencast.com/t/YWZhMTIwMz

Morning rats.
Hedge remove on all longs, watching closely.

hedge still off?

No follow through on the initial drop from the sentiment survey. It's all been recovered now. That was the bears chance to get something going and drive us through yesterday's lows. Doesn't look promising for the bears.

Not enough selling pressure for now.

When are you guys going to learn that the news don't matter?

I disagree. News is often important in terms of stops, at the least. A tight stop near a high profile news event will likely get hit. The wobbles on either side are also can be good but tricky places to enter/exit.

The same day they:
a) pay attention to all of what you write.
b) actually read 'the bible' (prechter's not the cult pamplet)
c) pull their heads out of their colons.

Reality approacheth:

Nov. Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment: Confidence took a tumble "due to the grim financial realities faced by consumers as well as weaker economic prospects for the year ahead - importantly, the decline in confidence was already in place before the announced increase in the unemployment rate to 10.2 percent on Nov. 6."

you'd think bad trade defecit numbers andd Michigan nos. would be enough to pull this pants off the market.....

And you'd be wrong! :-)

A year ago news like this would have been an excuse to tank the Dow by 500 handles. Which again proves that this is not a bull market - sentiment is completely different. This rally is all about hope, greed, and a quick fix.

Either way - this was known to the boys on the inside - which is why news don't matter, but this seems to be a lesson you rats refuse to learn.

I do agree.......Just commenting on how the bad news is just being shrugged off.......I think we're about to blow upards soon......break above 1092 possible......

You just said you agree, yet comment on how supposed news is being shrugged off. News means jack and is good for nothing but an initial spastic move in some direction.

The market loves bad numbers, because it mean more government bailouts. The market can't see past the end of the quarter, so it doesn't care about the long term implications of all that debt.

We just need some really good news to end this rally.

That would do it

"I think I saw Elvis"... will that do?

Oh the blowoff top could very well do the trick. Get everyone bought in so that there's no one left to tick up the asking price.

The blowoff setiment doesn't seem to be there tho.

that was a super-shallow retracement in the € - only 38.2% - the bare minimum required - now approaching yesterday's low

Wow. A short squeeze followed by a shorting frenzy. I got stopped out of my DRN at 124, for enough profits to buy dinner for two at Denny's. I did not have time to get into DRV, but will try if we get a 50% retrace of this initial move.

SRS has a gap to fill somewhere at 9.65 that might be enough for some 1Euro Menu items from MCD. ;)

Okay, got my retrace, and I'm in DRV. Let's see if I can make some more for those big ticket menu items :)

Yeah! :)

It's true, IYR is playing the bully today but the banks will eventually tear it down, if not there's stops and dry bread.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyzYI3TV8IQ
"What can I get for a euro?" "Two crappy dollars and some skittles"

:D

Btw, I agree with your IYR assessment, one last ramp. OH, and DAX bear confirmed.

Was going to post that the squeeze was looking weak. Think we break down to 42 and then one last move up and won't take out the october high. Denny's why not sludge it out at Ponderosa's. lol.

I agree there will be another trip to 42, and then some sort of a bounce. IYR is looking really strong today. Last throes of a dead madman, IMO.

Triple bottom on DRV right now?
Let me know when you decide to short the boat on IYR.

I am partially short via DRV at 17.40ish. I'll add the rest at 16.80, if we get there today -- I don't think that we will. I plan to sell when IYR touches support at 42.

There is now a decent chance of things getting messy.

Ah - inflation expectations within the Michigan (5yr) up to 3.1%. This is key as it is the key metric the Fed use to manage inflation expectations. This is going to cause a bear flattening of the curve - the max pain for macro funds.

You know I figured the UMich Consumer Sentiment would disappoint. Reason is, the spike in retail gasoline prices over the past 3 weeks. That's always good for a miss!

Both the UMich and the other consumer sentiment survey have something like only a 15% correlation to how consumers actually spend though.

clunk!

Michigan weak

EUR/USD coiling for another move - Down, methinks.

Michigan sentiment coming in 2-min. Expectation is for 71.

Edit: big plunge BEFOre the news has even hit about this.

WTF? My streamer didn't cross it until 09:56.

Short squeeze right now in IYR!

Wait, it will soon be the other way around :)

There is just no bid in the cash market in Europe today. Hard to believe the future is flat.

what the hell is up with UUP now? down 1.5%, dollar appears relatively flat...

100,000,000 new shares made available for trading effective today.

Dollar index is relatively flat. Something here is independent to UUP.

Just got in - and got to go back out again until 11 or so. I you guys recall, only when I walked away did we test resistance and after I was gone for the day at 1 pm did we finally break through. Let's see if I can give off some market mojo this morning by NOT watching it. ha, ha.

Anyhow, back on the fractal - would suggest a close back at 1098 today. Again, the perfect set up to confuse the most number of people - and get as much cash in the overnight basket for the weekend. We did break yesterdays pivot low, which was very cool indeed. Next pivot down is 1071 I think. I hope that when I get back later today we are tearing that pivot a new a-hole. OR - I could equally enjoy a massive run-up to 1122 here today for a spectacular blow-off top. Unfortunately, I would have say it is 50-50 we have a melt up into 1098 though. Thus, I am sitting on hands, talking dirty to my long term puts.

Got to go.

EUR/USD looks like it is forming a H&S on hourly

Gold is acting as an inverse proxy for the USD. Key level is 1111. It bounced up but couldn't hold, which suggests the morning action is a reaction in a downtrend in gold and equities. Once gold breaks 1100 the psychology could change for USD, gold and equities which have all been correlated this entire rally.

See the correlation of oil and gold has broken down, mainly on 2 weeks of short-term petroleum oversupply reports. (This is separate from the 125 million bbls in long term tanker storage, which has been like that for months and months.)

So the anti-dollar traders are confused a bit right now I think.

For the past few weeks, the most traded futures contracts have been: 1) crude, 2) S&P, 3) gold.

SWI priced their 2ndary at 18.75.
This one not as sexy as rino, but could play the 2ndary same way, using the offer price as the bench on closing basis

http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12504

RINO out with numbers. Remains a beast, but still no indication of 2ndary date.

Numbers look good, thoughts?

I'm leaning towards us heading back up today, but if FAS closes a 2hr candle below yesterday's close (would likely happen in the first 2 hours) then I'll change my view to expect more weakness.

Has anyone else noticed that UUP no longer tracks the dollar?

UUP is tracking it right.

The ole buck is down 2% this morning? I've got UUP at 22.35 -1.97% now this is yahoo real time but that move seems excessive...

dollar craps on bigger trade gap.

Edit: but it's still trading right around the main pivot for today. a 13-pip spike on the Euro on the trade balance news. R1 is at 1.4941.

It's all about carry trade on the dollar right now.
Do you think USD will continue to go down?

Trade in the dollar seems to be suffering from a negative feedback loop. A weaker dollar pushes equities higher which attracts more funds away from the dollar which pushes equities higher, ad infinitum, it seems. Really hard to project in that kind of environment.

We are still a ways from all-time lows on the DXY. I hope we do not test that line. I would not be surprised that if we made new all-time lows in the dollar, the stock market may not like it as the possibility of a currency crisis would be heightened.

The thing that gets me is why the Euro is so strong. I can understand the commodities based currencies like the Krone, or the Aussie dollar or even CAD, but the $%^#& Euro? Europe is a tower of babel, a completely dysfunctional collection of vastly different countries.

And now we have Liesman emptying his bowels on the USD for good measure . . .

I think the problems in the Europe exist but people don't know where they are.....the US problems are very evident and clear.

Today should be a bear Mitzvah, Mole please cue the Rammstein...

While I wait, enjoy some Ramones...I wanna be Sedated

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_Gl7I9tg1Q&feat...

Well the way the dollar's sliding right now before the open, I am seeing this as possible consolidation before another upward leg.

Plus, need I remind you that it's Friday 13th. Oh, and gmak is out for the day. Not sure if this works the same as a meeting, mind you, but let's run with it for the moment.

I had trouble sleeping last night, so decided to revisit some of the statements and interviews at APEC regarding a stronger dollar. Especially notable is the CNBC's unedited one with Tim G., the CFO of SPY. As you see he offers no concrete plan and dodges tough questions, instead answering ones that were not asked:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=132786129...

Ladies and gentlemen, this stuff was all for the cameras. The fact is that a low but stable dollar keeps everyone around the world happy: US consumers keep consuming, which keeps China producing, which keeps Australia mining and the Saudis pumping, etc., etc.

Why would any appointed officials in their right minds want that to end???

The most likely scenario for dollar shooting to the moon would be a massive overwhelming shock, like a China bubble bursting. If the dollar can't find a floor and DXY drops through the 60s then it's time to worry about this.

For now this strong dollar talk out to Asia is just talk that and you can probably file it in the digital bit bucket by Monday. Don't get me wrong, the dollar could indeed rotate higher, but I don't see it on the rocket launcher yet.

"with Tim G., the CFO of SPY"

priceless....+1

And you know who the CEO is! :D

I agree with you that it needs to put a foothold here. Hate to see it crapping lower.

Oh and props for your analysis, you and I may not always agree but I do respect and consider your opinions.

Mmm.. you assume that they are totally in control and not just winging it.

And... is he wearing blusher or just going red with shame?

Of course Tim's winging it. That's why I discount the whole damn thing. ;)

Compared to an absolute like gold you are correct but please keep in mind that we are graded on a pretty liberal curve. Now apply that curve to the absolute because it has to be priced in something and I think an argument can be made about the dollar weakness being overdone.

And yes longer term all fiat currencies are toast, are we longer term yet.. I don't think so but it is possible.

Oh I agree with that on the intermediate term. For example we got a glut of pertoleum products, 125 million barrels of crude and 90 million barrels of distalltes floating around in tankers, and more nat gas than we can store. So I'd expect firmness of the dollar here.

Which is good, because it would take some stress off the spiral-out-of-control scenario. Remember, the central banks have never unwound stimulus to this magnitude before. Could be an interesting 2010! Tim may get his "strong dollar" all right, the hard way. ;)

Nice stuff mas this band seems to pop for me :).

a new stainless steel rat... portuguese?

Yes I'm Portuguese :).

Eurozone Exits Recession In Q3 ..HUH????
11/13/2009 5:20 AM ET

(RTTNews) - The Eurozone economy expanded 0.4% sequentially in the third quarter, after contracting for five straight quarters, the flash estimate released by the Eurostat showed Friday. Economists had expected gross domestic product to grow 0.5% in the third quarter, following a 0.2% fall in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, the economy contracted 4.1% in the third quarter from the same period of previous year, while economists were looking for a decrease of 3.9%. The decline in the third quarter was smaller than the 4.8% decrease reported in the second quarter.

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930


PS. Well, the banks doesn't seem to think so. Is the Euro back to yesterday's lows yet?

Yet Britain has not. Man, we are so screwed.

Yes Spain hasn't either...must be in the method!!

"The S&P has climbed 55% from a 12-year low in March, thanks to more than $11.6 trillion in government spending, lending and guarantees. (How much is $11.6 trillion dollars? If you stacked 11.6 trillion in one dollars bills on top of each other, the bills could go from earth to moon and back -- almost two times!)." From Richard Russell

Puts into perspective the amount of money being thrown at the economy..!

Mostly went to the fricking bankers?

You've gotta wonder why the USD isn't weaker than it is........

I think key is to look at Euro..recently the trend SEEMS to be weakening. Of course all that can change with new a new high...
http://www.screencast.com/t/YWQwNGNhYzA

USD sliding - is this going to be a good reload point coming up? Cable showing highest delta as usual...

50% retrace of yesterdays monster pop (hitting that at the moment...)

Gonna wait for a little bit more, right or wrong... looks like we are consolidating in a (iv) on cable - sat on the 50% of c retrace which is acting as support

Morning folks from sunny Ireland for a change. Surprise surprise we have major storms coming later, I just hope they will arrive after I'm finished my track day, which will prevent me from posting today (thank god I'm sure most of you are saying :)).

Sentiment around the web is really interesting right now. Bulls are confident this is going on forever. There is no doubt in their minds whatsoever. Bears are beaten up. They cheer every small drop, but much of that cheer is nervous, ironic (I laughed at yesterday's "6 point crash" comment), and yesterday I read for the first time a professional fund manager refer to "fully invested bears".

I think most of us who post here believe a catastrophic drop in stocks is coming. The only disagreement here is to when. One thing I find extremely interesting is that bears now are looking for a big or impulsive move to signal that P3 is underway. With that I leave you with the summary from McHugh yesterday, which I think is worth bearing in mind, regardless of your view.

"On October 9th, 2007, a little over two years ago, the Industrials hit their all-time closing high, and the worst Bear Market since the 1930's started. The day after that October 9th, 2007 top, the Industrials fell 85.84 points. Three days later it closed only 71 points below the October 9th closing top. Who knew at the time that a mega-collapse in stocks was starting? On Thursday, November 12th, 2009, the Industrials fell 93.79 points below Wednesday's closing top for the rally from March 2009, closing at 10,197.47. One of these days, the same thing that happened in 2007 is going to happen again. A kickoff to a catastrophic decline in the stock market. It doesn't have to start with a 25 percent loss of stock values in one day. It doesn't have to start with a crash. It could be a slow relentless decline that over the course of several years could include a few crashes, but not necessarily right away. And nobody will know it has started"

Ciao folks, have a great day, and say a prayer (whatever your religion) that I don't crash my car :)

Thanks CC. "Fully invested bears," huh?

My favorite is "early stages of a long macro bull market." With all respect to those much smarter than me, I'd like to see those lines crossover first:

http://www.screencast.com/t/ZTk5ZjZhYjA

Have a safe and sound one.

PS. To give them credit the lines did cross on a daily 20yr chart. But they don't seem as reliable as those on a weekly/monthly basis - if you are looking at the macro picture.

What the daily chart does show though, is how intense this rally has been compared to others in the past. It doesn't look sustainable, I'm afraid.

Have a good one, fella, and safe home.

"Many are confuse but we are not, Part of this week newsletter here... Wednesday, November 11, 2009" Mahendra Prophecy written 11-08-09. Longer term predictions have been better, in the past, than short-term forecasts. Like Beanie, he is saying Dow 32,000 -- after consolidation going on now for several months forward.
https://www.mahendraprophecy.com/LatestFlash.as...

didnt he say we would see p3 start at the end Oct 2009

A few warning lights flashing this side of the pond - may well see some more downside from here, but I am doing a botch (at least it's only been 24hrs...) and now put the chances this is it 10% or less...

http://screencast.com/t/OGNkODZiZGYt

Your thoughts are of course welcome.

I agree, the all clear is not here yet. Overheated buyers don't give up easily and there will be a few more run ups. They will ultimately fail as long as my targeted sectors (banks/RE) continue to remain weak.

Morning, Jane. Yep, we have a little more time to fart around I fear. Really want to see a long-term chart of the DJIA with the great channel marked on it to see where it intersects with the expanding triangle. And whether this coincides with the new moon, natch. LOL.

Might try and put it together in metastock - downloaded all the historical data from dowjones.com t'other day...

A good morning to you too, Ultra. Your homework sounds fun, let us know if it does. :)

My own homework includes drawing crooked lines on SKF and checking the Euro movement during past 30-yr bond auctions.

"oscar" video out for Friday trading. Sell S&P pops -- expects S&P and other currencies down before they assault new highs.
http://www.youtube.com/futuresanalysts
"Stops Are In . . . Emotions Are Out !!!"

Yeah, I could see some more downside from here too, zero lite was if anything dropping south a little towards the close - don't think it really qualifies as a selling climax tho lol

We bounced back pretty smart from the long term trend line - think the bulls are going to want to take a decent run up to try and vault this one. Hopefully they will get smacked in the face again.

In the meantime, I can see us wasting more time while they string out the inevitable until one minute to midnight....

Mole,
the language used by Michael Davey is unacceptable. What is even worse is that absolutely no one complained about it... using the Lord's name in vain is really disrespectful. Has the level of this blog came to this utterly low level?

Mole, please don't waste such a decent blog by being so untasteful.
Thanks

I'm going to call GS and complain directly.

I'm going to bed. But please paste your specific example(s) so I can understand what is being argued here.

Love and light

All longs hedged at 1 PM today, risk for at least a 20 point enthusiastic drop is high.

i still think we must drop at least 5% in real terms

For true. Risk of drop is perceptable.

old news but worth reminding

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33890309/ns/politics/