Bulltard Panic Line

We are getting closer to a bounce and a small retracement as I’m looking at a textbook motive at this point:

The yellow area marks the beautiful motive we have painted since Wednesday - we could turn early or descend to Bulltard Panic Line (BPL) which now has reached 1085. After that I expect a bounce - either a small one (Soylent Orange) or a big one (Soylent Blue) - only Satan knows, and sorry he’s not telling - I’ve asked.

Talking about panic lines - here’s another big picture chart I thought you’d enjoy. Remember the PPT Panic Line (PPTPL) I kept posting about last year? It was the lower boundary of a long term channel which we sliced through since early August - a move I suggested back in August but which admittedly was one of my lower probability scenarios. Well - the gravity machine has been out of service all fall and we indeed reached the upper boundary and then promptly ran into a wall. If the bears don’t hold this line there’s nothing but air above until 11,100 - so you might want to keep your eye on this thing.

NYSE A/D ratio slightly better today at 0.44 - but in my mind expected after those über-bearish readings yesterday. Before you get your bearish hopes up let me rub this in just once more - nothing will happen until we finally breach this channel with confidence - nothing. The bulltards never gave an inch in the past nine month - any retracement was condoned and planned - some might call it bear traps. Whatever it was - it didn’t hurt anyone but retrail trades and über-bears. Once the pain begins for the bulls, that’s when we know a trend change has occured. Until then - well - business as usual.

FYI - I will be quiet the remainder of the day as I have some work to do before I head out to Texas on Sunday. No worries, I plan to be back Monday night.

This entry was posted on Friday, November 20th, 2009 at 1:48 pm and is filed under Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Duuuuuude

Funny...... my 18 year old daughter just looked at a stock chart on CNBC and asked who Jason was. I asked her where she saw Jason, and then she realized what she had looked at. At the bottom of the chart read JFMAMJJASON! lol Her brother and sister got a good laugh out of that!

DavidDT

someone just said "BullTard"?
Well, things were developing nicely before that :(

Duuuuuude

Yes, quicker than you can say Bulltard, there it goes!

molecool

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Persian_Gerb

90 minutes to close - what's your experience tell you?
A) Boring same'ol
B) Ramp Up
C) Sell Off

wrc1k

A & B . . . I'm just sayin' . . .

KK_KK

A for sure

fuw

When viewing the second graph it is clear that the rise from the March lows truly is the wedg(i)e from hell - it narrows in more and more but refuses to break.

Bernanke the bully?

gregn

Love it CAT down .90, put down .01. Fantastic.

Rd99Hse1

Meh. Most options just aren't worth it. I'm plain old short $CAT for the past few days.
It's a great swing name, and the options take all the swing probabilities out of it.

Scoops

It sounds like you've been buying the wrong options. The other day I put on an option trade.....simply put if the stock goes up I get to keep the credit, and if it goes down the profit is unrestricted. It's like getting paid to short stock.

Options are so misunderstood.

Rd99Hse1

Agreed. I traded options far too early in my learning process. No doubt.
I definitely see the benefits, and I will work on learning more. For now it just complicates an already difficult task.

thx for the reply...

Persian_Gerb

DOW 10,300 - 8 days of it. (rolling eyes, where's my vomit icon?)
I'm goin into the Theta burn bizness.

marcopolo101520

Lindsay has it.

"Lindsay Lohan Actual Vomit Icons"
http://www.bigoo.ws/Icons/tv/Lindsay-Lohan-ACTU...

TimV

Theres nothing like a successful Geronimo trade to start the weekend.... only one more tick and were there.

It will certainly make that vampire move later more tolerable. :)

molecool

And it's DONE - enjoy your weekend!

texpresso

wow the rats jumped off TWM

gregn

Looks like the ramp is beginning.

kryxtal

3:30 PM should be interesting today. We might fill that opening gap.

texpresso

i see no vol

thunda72

2 mil shares on the QQQQ last 5 minute candle. Pretty good pop.

texpresso

no action on stocks, that is what i watch

gregn

No volume never stopped a ramp up before.

amokta

is it worth going more kurzschluss right now, or wait a while?

Scoops

What a boring day. Glad to see that the bulltards got their option week rally. Oh wait. No they didn't. Haha. Silly bulls.

texpresso

i got mine. monday was niice

Scoops

I guess you made the good choice to take profits. I can't for the life of me stomach a long purchase at these levels. I'd rather be in cash, or short.

Croozer

This is very funny......

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/10/14/o...

kryxtal

Democrats are better at creating bubbles perhaps?

ds2

Thanks for the updated chart Mole. I got stopped out of my short position and was thinking of loading up again, but I think I'll wait a little while and see if we go up.

zstock, Pro Select!

FTO at a 6 bottom 12.05, that's 3 working double bottoms in a row.

molecool

VERY interesting.

momac

I want to say thanks for giving your thoughts on what is possible everyone. It makes it easier to try to make decisions about what to do in different scenarios. This really does help us newbies. :-)

molecool

Glad you are finding value here, momac.

bshah

mole/berk/gmak and others...
i need a small favor.. i am holding AMZN ..DEC 110 PUTS ... Way down right now... but from last week, the volume has been constantly going down. STOCK and MACD ( finally ) has turned bearish... RSI is dropping from 75%... I can't decide whether shall I keep it through next week so taking 3 days hit on put price or just get out today and then get back in later.. If you care about this small fish in the ocean, please comment/suggest..

Scoops

I have a January Bear Spread going. Best to never hold front month options. Unless they are Dec UUP calls lol.

bshah

Thank you all... I got rid of 5... will wait till EOD..

Persian_Gerb

Price has stabilized last day/half. I too don't want to make your decision. DO have a planned stop. . a place where any lower, and you would admit it was a bad trade, and take the pain, rather than burn it. disicipline & pain - it's part of the journey.

molecool

I can't give trading advice but I personally am holding Jan AMZN puts. IF I had Dec puts I would roll them into Jan - just hypothetically speaking.

kryxtal

Yeah it never hurts to roll them. Personally, I have a 130/135 dec bear call spread on amzn. Time decay sucks on straight puts/calls, so I generally stick with spreads for front month options, and save the calls and puts for anything further than that.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

monday you'll know, i doubt anything will give you an answer today

i'd hold

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

woke up and took a peek

ther was the 12:50's to ramp this tape so... 1085 as they hold the fort

better sleep than whatch black box ping pong

dollar

Now why would they do that?:

The Fed is reportedly scrutinizing the biggest banks to ensure they have enough capital to withstand a sudden reversal in asset prices. Supervisors want to know what banks know about the strength of their counterparties, and whether risk managers have any say in bank policies.

gregn

Because DOW 11000 is on the way, duh.

LostIllini

Short IWM, 2000 stocks can't be wrong (wow an Elvis reference..must be Friday).

Persian_Gerb

Excellent post. Love the big picture, with down channels! I'm routing for orange!!
But 50% at 1025 is calling. A big ramp up next week, "and everything is Good by the Media"....followed
by months of Bear FEASTING.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

goldie, try loading some of my comments and watch the spx:gold I posted

you might like it

Persian_Gerb

Dang, everyone has a web page now days. ;)

"Não existem mensagens que correspondam à sua consulta."
i don't speak this, and am too lazy to fire up babelfish!
:-)

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

no I don't, I meant disqus comments ( ckick the avatar, not the name)

Persian_Gerb

I skimmed through all your comments back "reality bites". even looked at a few spx graphs links. sorry, didn't see the spx:gold.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

the last graph has spx:gold and spx in the background

Persian_Gerb

still couldn't find it. but in interest of not spamming up the forum...
I'm a Dow man myself.
http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/dj-a...

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-68C8_4B0684F0.html

gregn

Have a safe trip er vacation ;)

gsavli

I agree with your thoughts. And that second chart is really exciting, just how much money lies on the floor now, that C and BAC and the rest of the gang are so cheap. :)

Duuuuuude

I did not read all the previous posts, but I suppose everybody noticed the VIX today?

Eva S

As long as the VIX stays below 30, we bulls have nothing to worry about. ;-)

kryxtal

Glitch in the matrix probably.

Centrifugal_Deforest

Some version of a bad tick - just ignore it

ultra

not until now - take it you are talking about 10 mins ago - wtf is that? a bad tick?

Duuuuuude

I guess that is what I am looking at. This is from a day chart from TOS charts. Is nobody elses chart showing that?

ultra

http://screencast.com/t/ZGM2NWYxN

gmak

DOn't forget that it flipped forward this week in terms of the options used to compute the value.

Duuuuuude

This week or today? I just thought this movement was interesting. If it happened today, then that explaines it. http://screencast.com/t/YjIwNDEwNj

gmak

I think it was Wednesday for index options.

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

someone's trying to push the tape higher and vix down...

subtle as a rhino in a soapball

Duuuuuude

No Shit!

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

I'm still expecting vix 36 (as I mentioned long ago), and we'll get there if they don't make a new low

Duuuuuude

I hope you are right. By then, most everybody will be shitting in their pants!

Stainless_Steel_Hamster

at 36 (or close) I expect to reverse to long for wave 2

Croozer

That sort of spike is quite normal on an options expiry day........

Duuuuuude

The spike occured between 12:45 and 12:50.

Croozer

Ah.......I guess that is a pretty unusual for that time of day.........pass......

gsavli

Yes, it's funny, only slightly up.

gregn

I expect it has something to do with OPX today as $VIX is based on buying puts etc. I'm sure selling of puts today is putting a hamper on the spike that would normally occur.