Have No Fear

Have no fear – the PPT is here:

This, my dear ladies and leeches, is how putting a floor underneath the market looks like. For the noobs – the support line you’re seeing is the VWAP. Curiously, after a 30+ drop in the ES futures over Thanksgiving this line is holding like the famed Chinese wall.

Although I was getting some flak from one facetious poster let me reiterate that this is actually long term bearish. Yes, they did put a floor underneath the market and yes, it’s possible that all the ugliness will be gone come Monday. But if you look underneath the hood – A/D ratio is at 0.1 right now and was 0.05 earlier:

Let me repeat – we just rallied over 20 ES points with an A/D ratio below 0.2. – that’s right. So we all know who’s doing the buying right now – none other than the PPT. Futures now approaching 1100 again on no participation.

But longer term this is actually very bearish – come Monday there will be very few stops to run as the bears are not believing this drop. Remember what we’ve been talking about for months now – the market won’t roll over until the bears have truly given up. The spike up today tells me that there are very few bears left – at least none of them are trading today. And even before this ‘Dubay catalyst’ (you all know how I feel about the news) the tape was in the process of rolling over. So, let’s see what Monday brings when the tape is not so easily supported by the weekend crew. If nothing else this drop has probably rattled a few nerves – I’m sure the MSM is already switching into sugar coating mode.

Forget about these crazy temporary gyrations – focus on the longer term picture. And for that you might want to take a peek at my ISEE related post yesterday. Yes, that’s right – while you rats were tripping out on tryptophan I was working my little butt off

This entry was posted on Friday, November 27th, 2009 at 12:03 pm and is filed under Interventions, Intraday Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

molecool

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VA_Voter

I heard on the video for 11/28 at 45:00 on blog 'RebelTrader' that Bob Prechter of EWI called the top of the market and is now 200% short. Can anyone cofirm?

What does this mean?
Scoops

Yes, he recommended moving into leveraged short positions with money you can afford to lose. Though if one agrees with Hulbert's ridiculous notion about the wide spread pessimism of this rally you might reconsider. One only has to look at the II readings to see the froth salivating from the public's mouths at the new bull market and inevitable Santa Clause rally that takes us to the moon.
molecool

I can confirm that he's now 200% short. Also check out my latest post for more juicy charts.
The_Grim_Reaper

Major Low Cycles

Should we assume this time is different?

http://ethicalcheating.blogspot.com/2009/11/maj...
jamesmarkii

6% correction from 1113 is 1046 spx
7% correction from 1113 is 1035 spx
8% correction from 1113 is 1024 spx
jamesmarkii

oops
ClutchShorter

Friday's market activity was frustrating and no different than these past few weeks. While major foreign indexes fell 3-6%, the US fell less than 2%. Bernake and company always find a way to push the markets back up. BUT don't give up bears, failure is not an option. Those that give up easily simply move on or blame others for their shortcomings. I use 'failure' as an opportunity to modify/change my approach. I don't assign blame nor drown myself in sorrow because things didn't work out. Yes, I get frustrated here and there but then I move on. Be objective and stay the course.

And NO more upside before we go down. Stop giving bulls a chance to prop up the markets even more. Every small downturn, I see a comment posted about seeing more upside before we go down. It's been happening for the past few months. It just keeps rallying and rallying. Scale in shorts per your trading plan. If it goes against you, add more if circumstances and conditions warrant the need for it or close your position.
Tazman

Hey Mole....I did enjoy your ISEE post....learned much.....as for CRE......when will you go deep? I have been playing SRS for 2 weeks with decent entries/exit....but just will not hold long @ this point.

Nice post @ SOH...
goldpackers

Bearish count is that was a failed c wave up late Friday and headed down in a 3rd or C Monday(Favor C ~1070). Bull count is 5 waves up off Friday's low and we are in a B or 2 or completed B or 2 on the close. I wish I knew! Believe sellers will come out gladly above 1100 now with concern over the "house of cards' scenario.
Until we get a couple of closes below 1060 spx, can't get uber bearish. Could be a 4th wave in this diagonal(started at 978) and still reach the vaunted 1121. M/T will tell.
Still holding Faz and will add if rally Monday. Bought NEM calls on open Friday as hedge. Will dump if gold gaps up Monday. Will not sell FAZ till SPX trades 978 or I die!

Dubai getting limited aid.

Gann turn 12-1/2. 12-10/11
molecool

I put up a post over on the Slope - nothing new really for you rats, but just FYI.

Have a great weekend!
centerline

Thanks. I'll hop over and check it out for the hell of it.
zstock7

OXY shouldn't be above $76__but then, What do I know?
Click here to see the OXY CHART
goldpackers

TURN THOSE MACHINES BACK ON...................................................
molecool

LOL - I was thinking of the same line towards the close :-)
jamesmarkii

:0
jamesmarkii

m9 pattern is pretty strong as well.
jamesmarkii

if the m9 holds true we are heading lower than 980
jamesmarkii

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&b=3&g=1&id=p48703521391&a=182289429
DavidDT

there is one thingy on your charty I love to see

1113(.69)
http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2009/09/d-wa...
jamesmarkii

http://www.bollingeronbollingerbands.com/patterns/
see M9
jamesmarkii

:)
the rounded top is just taking a couple days longer to round down.
the late oct-early nov rounded top correction was 9 trading days
7 down 2 up days to completion.
DavidDT

just keep an eye on Dec7-9
it might be intermediate bottom
OK, off for weekend
Luvvinit

David what is the methadology?
rangefinder

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100002318/dubai-is-just-a-harbinger-of-things-to-come-for-sovereign-debt/
bigmovingstock

My guess, market is toast come next week
Gold_Gerb

I'm looking forward to an update on soylent orange/blue come Monday.
DavidDT

I can assure you that either one will happen
molecool

LOL - no worries - I will post another chart this weekend. Now, I'm going to relax a little. I just posted on the Slope actually - my first one, whenever Tim decided to publish it.
Scoops

Oh great. More guest posters ;)
DavidDT

I'd LOVE to read your post at Slope, but I don't like when someone constantly tells me that his ... is bigger than mine (account)
molecool

It's not up yet - either T.K. is still on the plane or he's busy removing all the curse words - LOL :-)
Gold_Gerb

thanks!!!

not sure if the previous post covered this item - Rule 48.
(sorry if repost)
looks like the PPT was a little nervous this AM.
http://www.nyse.com/equities/nyseequities/Today_Alerts_New.shtml
tradejane

>Rule 48

I love it when they change the rules in midgame. It's not fun - especially if one gets caught in the middle of it like I have - but looking back one of the best signs of things to come was banning the shorts and halting SKF.
molecool

Wish there was a rule 48 for us bears - let's face it we don't have any help out there. The bulltards get all the breaks.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

golden rule, those who sold the gold and get suckers to take a paper make the rules
The_Grim_Reaper

Two scenarios, one bearish, one bullish. Just don't get burned guessing which way it goes right now. I favor the bearish scenario for the time being because my signals all say sell, but I am not sure until the bears break 1017

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_HI9vMxcgcpQ/SxAu-fjvGhI/AAAAAAAAAEY/ZoMsNk1TEK4/s1600/beargridweekly.bmp
jamesmarkii

http://www.screencast.com/users/JamesBrrando/folders/Jing/media/bdc01254-49e4-4c63-82d2-48b424094a8d

so bullish....

oops

not so much
jamesmarkii

went short at 1095 today
im feeling good about it.
im covering around 1040, give or take 5 es
DavidDT

1041 it is
http://screencast.com/t/OTcyZDUxNj
gmak

Are the US markets closed?
Tom_27

yes, US cash markets closed at 13:00 today
gmak

I just got back and I'm seeing SPX essentially flat sinc around 13:00 EST, but ES is moving up and down. Is this valid? Or do I have a data feed error on SPX?

Thanks guys and gals
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

well try and enjoy the weekend and ignore the futures, they'll pump and pump till they can pump no more

the april fall was made of straw, the PPT blew and it failed

the june fall was made of wood, the PPT blew and it failed

this one seems made of bricks and mortar (without rooftop)
raised_by_wolves

Ever used a huff and puff apparatus?
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

nopes
kanur

Impeccable timing. As usual.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...

Evans, 52, sold 70,000 shares at prices ranging from $170.98 to $173.47 on Nov. 23 and Nov. 24, according to the filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Another senior executive not covered by the agreement is Michael Sherwood, the firm’s London-based vice chairman and co- head of the European business. Sherwood, 44, exercised options on 158,125 shares over seven days from Nov. 13 to Nov. 23, according to regulatory filings.

The options let Sherwood purchase the stock at prices of $82.875 or $91.61, about half the current level, before selling them at prices ranging from $171.43 to $178.05, booking a profit of about $13.7 million.
Niktus

What a freaking coincidence... Not!
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

he's still keeping 90%, he believes he can push the C... hummm, but it might mean it will take some time or not too sure

unless with the buffet story he also has an informal agreement
kanur

Depending where he got in, he could sell all the way down and still laugh all the way to the bank. Wait, he is the bank, right?
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

he didn't get in, he has options in the 80's (it's in the article)
omelette

vix gapped up and closed above mid bollinger. nice. let's see if it runs up to tag the 3.0 (red) within 5-7 sessions this time like it has been doing after closing above the mid.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p17699024504
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

my oh my! do they grow at this age, it seems just yesterday he was barely 20 and look at him now, already 25 and probably 36 soon
shortcover

all in all, what i expected today...had expected -200 tho. monday could be ugly...
fast996

Gap down and a "abc" irregular as the c failed to go above the a. All I can say is falling pianos don't bounce!
goldpackers

I agree. Above 1096 spx concerned me ST but that was a failure and should at least test 1066 to 1070 Monday
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

you know, you are right, but slightly different, what you call A is in fact b of B, it's usualy highjacked (and a of b controled) to make it look like a crazy 5
rikardo_kurvio

nice finish. i entered some short ES cfds
dollar

highest volume bars of the day in SPY 10 min were the first and the last, both very red
I_got_Prechterized

Black Monday setup. Greece defaults over the weekend and this sucker's done.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

anyone here believes an eurozone country can default by all by himself?
centerline

Now thats a f***ing close. Haven't seen one like that in awhile!

Alright, got to go fall off my house now (putting up lights today). See u guys/gals later.

Mole, thanks again for great posts and a great place hang out.
dollar

BKX new LOD
fast996

$DJR new LOD too.
fast996

This huge rising wedge has been confirmed by the Gap down this morning. Now this "p" for phony rally will attempt to fill these gaps somewhat. The technicals stink and there are many boogeyman lurking so my guess is we have a mini or maxi crash next week.
fast
goldpackers

spx above 1096 means spike up Monday
bubble jeopardy

In theory and most likely in practice, all countries attempt to manipulate markets. However, the asia pac countries have been in the lead and falling the most. $nikk has taken out its October lows and is zeroing in on the July lows. Apparently the manipulation isn't working. Europe appears to be following asia pac then the US with catching up to do on the down side.
centerline

Where are the dip buyers now? Ha, ha, ha.
centerline

Oops. There they are! Don't tell me this mid-day blip was an ABC. Oh well. A down day is still a down day and the fractal is in play!
TWD

Yep, I had a feeling it was corrective also.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

GS WAVES rules and guidelines

1. if it is a drop it's corrective
TWD

I was referring to a retracement wave. What the heck are those called?
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

correctives come into different flavours, zig-zags, flats, triangles

was that what you wanted to know?
TWD

Yes, but I saw 5 waves up from the low this morning on SPY and then a 3 waves down from the high at 11am. How would you count that and what is the correct terminology to use?
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

it's a matter of creating and containing an expanded flat on B

you count ABC up (3 waves) then an ABC down starts BUT you don't let A fall too much, and you pump B beyond the initial ABC

grand total, 5 waves up to the top

now the expanded flat asks for 5 waves down, but when you get to 4 you push it just enough to violate w1 down and force a 5th failure

you see it all the time lately
TWD

You'll have to excuse my ignorance, but would you be able to chart that?
goldpackers

Believe an ABC off the low with a failed C wave. Bearish.
molecool

What's a 'drop'? Are you referring to a matrix anomaly?
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

oh no master! I love the big brother, there are strong rises (doubleplusgood) and lesser rises (thoughtcrime they look like drops)

but there are no DROPS. it is a regional phenomenon, it's rising somewhere else right at the same minute
I_got_Prechterized

right there on schedule.
centerline

Oops again. Dip Buyers passed out from lack of oxygen (altitude sickness).
@torbjornrive

Monday debacle?
rikardo_kurvio

this thing is overbought vst.
but I'm aware of some october similarities

naz100 futures daily
http://www.screencast.com/t/ZjU2YzFjNWEt
centerline

Hey all. I am thrilled to see the fractal still in play. Even a minor flat or "up" day on Monday would still fit. Liking the VIX movement as well.

We can't be too disappointed that it is not a "Black Friday" the way we wanted to see it. This rollover is right on schedule. I admit I had my hopes up for a 3%+ dive today. It is so overdue, it is just not funny. This beast is clearly running on fumes.

BTW, it sure seems funny the timing of the news. What a manipulated crock. That was put out on T-day for a reason. Not coincidence. Give me a break.
fuw

Looks like spx 1094 might be the tipping point right now.
Bart7

Amazing, bears hit record lows on Investors Intelligence Sentiment this week, 17%. Bulls back over 50%...
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx
molecool

Finally - have benn waiting for this moment. BTW - did not know this free link 1++
zstock7

Hi Mole!
There's a 65% chance SPY will see a lower low on Tuesday, which doesn't make any sense, because usually the market is up on " The first day of the month", unless there's a commodity sector Crash--which happens a lot on the "first day of the month" in which case, the commodity sector, will lead the rest of the market down, on the first!
Stay BEAR!
Eva S

You mean bears are not so intelligent? LOL
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

of course bears are dumb, the consensus exhists, the science is settled

ANTROPOGENIC BULL MARKET

p.s. hamsters have tiny tiny brains, even dumber than bears
@torbjornrive

This might actually be a robo-pogenic bull market!
Humans have too many emotions; let's call the lemmings robots as well.

ROBOPOGENIC (patent pending)
molecool

Oh robot strategies are the ultimate lemmings - you will see soon enough?
centerline

Apparently, little mechanical hamsters are the big thing for xmas this year. LOL.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

i think I posted a link some weeks ago ;-)

they're STAINLESS STEEL and they'll take over the world
Bart7

that's the most extreme low bearish sentiment I've ever seen on that indicator...
I think it hit 19 to 20% at the 2007 top... now 17%
Schwerepunkt

Just realized I have the wrong contracts on my streamer for Nymex CL, NG, and GC? What is the letter designation for these Jan 10 contracts?
Guest

would be CLF0, NGF0, etc
Schwerepunkt

thanks, figured it out finally. I should find a list of all these contracts throughout the year. Cant' find a comprehensive list at CME/NYMEX.
Centrifugal_Deforest

Quick synopsis of my thinking and plan of attack here...
http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/
v8muscle

Since when has Gold been this volatile.... lol
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

since it became the adjustment for the market that wouldn't stop climbing

it's the hiden crash
bshah

Is BIDU good candidate for short..? It recovered almost $17/-..
v8muscle

yes.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

ok, been browsing the action

from open to 10 AM PPT picked up the banks and took them to safe zones and stoped pushing, concentrating on ETFs and some stock

fine gameplay
Tronacate

Russell just backtesting neckline after the break........240 min bar looks like a 2 with 3 to start
v8muscle

Bears be careful. Its a good place to add up here but TICK making a higher low so gotta watch out.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

ladies and rats

spx:gold still falling
bpspx will likely break the 13MA

monday will be fun
v8muscle

Rebought the IWM puts I sold this morning. Essentially shorted them for like 25%. Also took profit on CHK longs. Added VLO Jan 17.5 Call, looking to get more IWM short if I can.
bergs

Mole

Would you consider this a possibility?

http://screencast.com/t/YjY4MWEwNzUt
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

berg, an expanding flat for 4 would like a longer C
bergs

Got ya, thats why I put the ? mark by (iv)

Perhaps we are now in the b portion of the C wave with a little more down to end the day. That would suck in the shorts for the final run to wave five. Seems like a good scenario?
Scoops

Not surprised by the ramp job whatsoever. I agree though, the dip buyers are out in full force, which is to be expected when one looks at the sentiment. PPT doing a bang up job. If only the media published a/d ratios with the same graphics, flash, and pomp as the indices themselves.
Bart7

European markets now up over 1%, are my eyes deceiving me?
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
tradejane

Yup. 200 pt reversal on the DAX.

Unfortunately I've been through this before, that's why I wrote yesterday:

---------
If there's one thing I've learned from those "holiday crashes" is that anyone who expects a grand continuation the next day might find themselves sorely disappointed...
---------

At least the painful lessons of the past are of some use now.
Bankrupt

could be, euro markets were hammered already yesterday.
Bart7

but they opened way down today it appears
fuw

yeah they opened down today and gap filled quickly, but also went down >3% yesterday.
bubble jeopardy

The h & s bottom in tza is looking more beautiful by the day.
Tronacate

C'mon people......you knew this gap was gonna fill some......this is a ripple effect
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

nopes, since 10 AM this is pure GS WAVE

the corrective ABC ended then and there

this is manipulation at its best

(check gold and count some counts, it helps)
fuw

Interesting to see what happens here, with the first retrace of the day. Was the morning action a bearish flag?
Tronacate

There ya go.......impulse and flag.......let's not freak
Tronacate

Don't think green........all the talking heads say it's "just a blip".......I say bullshit......the positive spin is starting to show its transparency
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

well, in real land (spx:gold) we're already below 0.93, we already had 15% drop since august

makes you wonder?
bubble jeopardy

Something tells me that the bulls will look back on "buying opportunities" like today and say "what was I thinking"?
Tronacate

Buyers were licking their chops with this dip.......but this Dubai deal shows the truth of the global economy condition........
Bankrupt

The truth being that more or less anything can be bailed out when using fiat money.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

tell me about it
labdude

This is irritating--glad the market closes early today--other wise it would end up positive (and still may).
PPT PPT PPT hard at work!
molecool

Was thinking the same - give them enough time and they will close this fucker in the green.
bshah

that would the most proud moment for obama/tommy/buck ben.. won't it.. Then essentially they will declare the war on world markets and regain financial capital of the world for another 1000 yrs.. he he...
I_got_Prechterized

Amazing stuff, we're down less than the pre-Thanksgiving fluff from earlier this week. Gold with a $50 dollar pop from overnight lows. Unfortunately, just as the US consumer won't stop spending until they're tapped, the fund manager chasing benchmarks won't stop buying until they're wiped out. The day of reckoning is coming soon. I'm guessing several countries will default on their soveirgn debt in the next few months.
Bankrupt

For every Dubai, there is an Abu Dhabi.
I_got_Prechterized

Unfortunately, America's Abu Dhabi is China and they won't be there forever.
Bankrupt

No? Where will they go?
bshah

what are you talking about Mole...? BTW, PPT if buying all these, like every single company in the fucking world..? I have 20 tickers on my scottrader and you know, MA/DECK/BIDU/GOOG all dropped big and now they are like positive.. What do they after buying all these.. We say that they are in place from March, so what did they do with all these shares..?
Now I know why you say "Newwwwwws don't matter"... In US atleast it will never..
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

well when the FED owns all of the stock (as collateral to failed banks loan) you'll have the yankee union of socialist republics, maybe there's place for venezuela et al
LogansRun

Look at the tape rats - we might close positive today
Niktus

Thing is, I have been focusing on the long term picture for a long time. And actually thought this was it. The beggining of a decent correction. And while I keep my eyes on the charts, they reduce my account. Frustrating to say the least.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

calma rapaz, estão a puxar alguns bancos a ver se passa
Niktus

Ja me tinha esquecido que eras tuga. ;-)
Look at this http://screencast.com/t/ODFmOWY4NWM
Cant make sense of it. Is this data correct?
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

autopsias and 5 or 6 others

the data is good, plunge protection team boosted/held banks (look at C) and is waiting for dipbuyers to take the hint. but most stocks were not

p.s. what's the current AD ratio?
Niktus

Currently at -4.2 with a single green doji on the 5m frame
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

the market is toast, dip buyers aren't taking the bait...
LostIllini

Bought some SLV....buying this dip was bad?
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

if market crashes, silver and gold go separate ways... silver is more comodity, will crash with equities
LostIllini

not buying crash just yet, but Silver makes a pretty good upside hedge for my IWM puts
molecool

Damn furreigners...
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

just repeating what i said on the other post

PPT is pushing some banks (that they already own) and hoping dip/dumb buyers take the lead

p.s. the FURigners part was sweet

Have No Fear

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