Slippery Slope (snowpack list of eligible shorts)

Michael Davey (CD) here…

The UAE has saved the planet this weekend, coming to the aid of a troubled Dubai World (pictured above).

I for one am really pleased, since I couldn’t understand how such a distant, seemingly insignificant default in the Mideast could ski-rope the global markets by the neck and pull it off the mountain.

Ha!

Personally, I don’t care in hoot’s hell what the catalyst is. If I sneeze and my arm falls off, then I know I’m coming down with a cold, sure. But that’s got to be the good news, right?

Futures are higher tonight and the potential for a reasonable gap-up for equities is strong. My eyes are burning from screening a couple thousand charts the last 48 hours, but I’m emerging finally now with my new go-to list of eligible shorts.

You’ll cruise the list and go away, which suits me fine. Myself, I’ll key on this as an attack-list throughout the week and key the groups especially which lead us lower on any given session. I’m not trying to short the strongest names in the market. Some of these still show reasonable, overall relative strength (RS), but those few are exhibiting some other negative divergence (and all of the the groups below declining notably in RS for the previous 1-to-6 weeks).

Why am I getting short this market? Do I see the next shoe dropping for the markets?

Ha and Ha! I’m getting short for a variety of technical and psychological indicators (and a hint of fundamentals, but fundamentals have been mostly negative for some time already; you knew that - which is why you were either on the sideline or else getting short some many months ago…let’s not go there for your sake).

Severe downside? Oh sure, most definitely most maybe, it will perhaps be serious.

Or not. That’s not my game this decade. This is the decade to let the market define the terms. I’m just a  trader with smugs and few hugs (I sense you noticed I was getting snarky just now) and why the devil should I pretend to know how this chess board is going to play out six and sixty moves from now?

You keep me posted on that and we’ll stay friends, okay?

Anyway, as always, this is not a list of here-and-now shorts, but an eligible list of my personal candidates. This week’s screen is focused on the industry groups, both highly and poorly ranked, which have been dropping notably in terms of relative strength (RS). My selection process beyond that is based on divergences, liquidity and more.

Good trading - should be another fun weak(sic!)…

Banks-Money Center:
UBS
BK
HBC
C
MS
BAC
BCS
WFC
JPM
LYG
GS
DB

Finance-Investmnt Brokers:
RJF
IBKR (thin)
LAB (thin)
OXPS
SCHW
MF
NITE
BGCP
CS
BPSG

Finance-REITs:
KIM
LXP
PCL
IRET
FSP
REG
CUZ
DCT
CSE
ANH
UDR
CPT
AMB
DRE
WRE
MPG
FR
RYN
MFA
BXP
VNO
LRY
WRI
BMR
SPG
BDN

Finance-Mortgage Related:
FNM
FRE
OCN

Electronic-Semiconductor Equip:
WFR
ATMI (thin)
MKSI (thin)
FORM
AMAT
VRGY
LRCX
BRKS
KLAC
AEIS
CYMI
NVLS
VSEA

Electronic-Semiconductor Mfg:
ZRAN
IDTI
SIGM
CY
MCHP
XLNX
SPIL
IRF
CRUS
SMTC
NSM
ISIL
AMTL
HIMX
MCRL
ANAD
BRCM
LLTC
STM
DIOD
VLTR
STEC
ONNN
PMCS
TQNT
SLAB
TSRA
SNDK

Telecom-Wireless Equip:
NVTL
ERIC
CMTL
NOK
TRMB
QCOM
RIMM
HSTX
GRMN

Telecom-Svcs:
CBEY
ALSK
LVLT (penny stock)
TNDM

Elec-Component Connector:
MOLX
TNL
IIVI
VSH

Computer-Software Security:
VRSN
SYMC
MFE

Computer-Networking:
ELON
RVSN
PLCM
JNPR
CSCO
BRCD
RVBD

Internet-Software:
RNWK
GIGM
WBSN
ARBA

Commcl Svcs-Schools:
LRN
COCO
APOL
APEI
ESI
STRA
DV
LINC

Apparel-Clothing Mfg:
CRI
TRLG
ZQK (penny stock)
COLM
LIZ
UA

Retail-Clothing/Shoe:
HOTT
BEBE
WTSLA
JOSB
FL
CWTR
ZUMZ
PSUN
NWY
PLCE
SSI
BKE
LTD
ARO
SMRT

Oil/Gas Field Svcs:
NR
WEL
ALY
TRMA
DVR
HOS
TDW
SLB
KEG
HAL
HLX
GLBL
CLB
MDR

Oil/Gas Intl-Exploration:
EGY
NXY
TLM

Metal Ores-Gold/Silver:
AEM
JAG

Machinery-Metal Hdlg/Automation:
HURC
CASC
KTEC
PRCP

Funeral Svcs & Related:
STEI

Medical-Biomed/Biotech:
ITMN
RIGL
CYPB
ALTH
MDCO
VPHM
ALNY
PDLI
GERN
CRXL
ARNA
MATK
REGN
AOB
AMAG
ALKS
BIIB

This entry was posted on Sunday, November 29th, 2009 at 11:20 pm and is filed under Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • gmak
    Good Morning Everyone! Sorry to interrupt, but..

    NEW POST - PreMarket warm up
    b>NEW POST - PreMarket warm up
    b>NEW POST - PreMarket warm up
    b>NEW POST - PreMarket warm up
    b>NEW POST - PreMarket warm up
    b>NEW POST - PreMarket warm up
    b>NEW POST - PreMarket warm up
    b>NEW POST - PreMarket warm up
  • Schwerepunkt
    ftse still holding the greenline -- traders there are probably hoping US equities float their boat.
  • goldpackers
    Still believe this is wave 4 of a diagonal triangle. Favoring 1061 to 1075 but could have bottomed Friday. 1046 probably worst case.Gann turn 12-1/2 and favored this to be a low. Next turn 12-10/11.

    Holding Faz but will hedge if down into Tuesday / Wednesday.

    Can't get really bearish until 1029 spx is brokenor a new high. . Major Gann turn 1-15 to 1-21. If we do need wave 5, this would be the time frame for the final top.
  • amokta
    NO TradeJAne, GMAK this morning - is Germany on holiday today?
    T
    his Dubai/AbuDhabi seems overblown to me: Bull market Dead? - Long live the Bull Market
  • beats me!

    already tried summoning Gmak, but I failed
  • SodaBoy
    Just be careful boys... To many of you are more eager than the most eager beaver...
    I think we are all on the same side here, but just keep a cool head is all that I'm saying.
    Anything can still happen.
    Good luck to all.
  • just mentioned that. The 50% retrace on real spx is a danger zone....

    and gold is still "parked" waiting to see if it can retrace or must continue to rise to corect nominal spx
  • GMAK?!?!?

    Dubai and Abu Dhabi on fire, europe on minus 1 and you sleep late?

    BTW rats and girls, there is a pause moment after a further 1-2% drop, we'll be close to spx:gold 50% retracement at .905, naything can go from there though it doesn't seem likely on the BPSPX front, but it's the bull's (and PPT) best chance for now
  • Give him time crazy hamster, LOL!!
  • how about a MOLE POST (TM)?

    my guess (educated one) is we still have something to drop, .91 in real terms looks like a fine stop and we're still painting 0.925

    BTW if I'm right about gold reaching 1400 we might be royally sc"%"ed, 1008 would be enough for a real double bottom
  • I put up a nice post this weekend and got very few eyeballs - going to take it easy today.
  • I always read your post thoroughly (and many others do and don't comment) BTW, ready to take a different look at gold as it just broke 1200? I realy see this clownesqe market as a larger 68-81
  • No mercy!

    What should an hamster do? bring him milk and coffe? (just kidding he does a very good job I just do the wake up call)
  • elliott_surfs
    Sorry if this is a noob question but, do intermediate tops/bottoms have to take place in a certain time period? Or is it all relative? Interested in the formation over the past couple weeks, especially SPX 30min...
  • depends on how you count your waves, but if guidelines are reasonably limited, rules are not, EWT is mostly value, time is seldom constrained
  • elliott_surfs
    Thank you SSH.
    If interested, here's a bit of bear porn
    http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/11/30/m...
  • BTW, can any of the senior EWTers around here check this quick guide to EWT? I found it useful when it was online at geocities, but the link died

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/23363645/Elliott-wave...

    p.s. due credit as in the original page was kept and I am not aware of this being anything other than public domain
  • looking at europe and middle east, seems like the abu dhabi bailout of dubai screwed abu dhabi as well....

    contagion? systemic risk?

    let's see what monday brings on
  • bobthehorse
    My reasoning for having a small go on the long side is that this market is so thin, it's ridiculous and the likeliest scenario is that it totally screws everyone before falling out of bed in a way which no one can get on board (i.e. overnight). Am still of a negative mindset.
  • raised_by_wolves
    The only way I can be screwed is if gold goes down while equities go up.
  • then pay attention to SPX:GOLD, next danger zone is .91 and you're already at .92

    I personaly think a >61% retrace is in order but carefull, 1.1 on short notice if it escapes the downroad and that's + 20%
  • raised_by_wolves
    Will do.
  • keep an eye on the lines I drew on BPSPX (there is either a fan that might give reversal moments or some prety paralel channels) either way MA13 has proven to be interesting, but only be afraid of vertical crossovers
  • bobthehorse
    Well I have just bought a scrap of futures here (ESZ9 1090), takes my delta small long although I still have the 1050 puts so a real breakdown won't upset me. If it rallies, could go as far at 1104. Will get short there.
  • well part one of prophecy acomplished, futures are pumped
    part two is their failing to hold

    have fun
  • raised_by_wolves
    SSH, do you think Mole will mind if I moderate under the influence? ;-)
  • He's german, he'll just care if you moderated well or not
  • raised_by_wolves
    In that case I'll have another swig.
  • Please try not to ban everyone ;-)

    Gee - what was I thinking??
  • raised_by_wolves
    The balmy midnight air has inspired me to write Lloyd: "Bring it on, Sheep Fucker. / All the best and a sincere fuck you, / Raised By Wolves"

    Edit: SSH, I better clarify in case your real name happens to be Lloyd; I'm referring to the CEO of my favorite company, that is, my favorite company to short.
  • Lloyd beying a typical portuguese name? LOLyd

    BTW late night UI poetry is protected under ssh 1st ammendment
  • raised_by_wolves
    LOL

    It can't just be the 151-proof. You have a knack for cracking me up. That's hard to do. I'm a serious cub, you know.

    You're no hamfatter, but are you a fat hamster?
  • hamsters aren't fat, they are bulky graceful animals who couldn't play a song to save their lives
  • acejimmy1
    Mole......I also just posted via disqus.Thanks for all your and guest postsers efforts.
  • Guest
    Posting for me allowed now on Google Chrome, after Refresh.
  • Really sorr about this - I already emailed Daniel over at disqus.
  • acejimmy1
    Dubai market down 7% as of now.
  • aurelia1
    A few minutes ago i was blocked from commenting, right now everything is back to normal it seems (in firefox and IE)...
  • If disqus claims that you have been blocked from EvilSpeculator please complain to disqus support - nobody has been banned here recently.
  • you're losing your touch ;-)

    going soft?

    p.s. for anyone who's new around ES, this is a joke
    p.p.s. I think the las ban came from the hamster paws but it was a case of double identity, yes, that will win a free hamster ban... that an insubstanciated insults or spam, anything else the hamster leaves to the dreaded mole
  • raised_by_wolves
    Going soft or drinking hard.
  • that's my cub, trying to get from moderator to ban in less time than pretcher says P3

    ROTFLOL
  • raised_by_wolves
    LOL

    I better go to bed before I do.
  • well, get some rest
  • A few people here have been promoted to moderators. Congrats!
  • raised_by_wolves
    One of them shit his pants. Thanks!
  • The way to go in solving unemployment problem!
    don't forget to send out a paycheck
    ... and double the amount if their explicit content or plain interest to be promoted was not asked :)
  • Nice list CentD....I have also been screening too much, and will try to run these through my distorted little view of what bullish and bearish is in the next few days.

    Also did plenty of posts this last few days, stop by and check it out.

    Ps posting on Firefox
  • will do, thx
  • Various people reported issues posting comments. Seems like disqus is screwing up again. If affected please use IE until they fix this problem (hopefully soon). Thanks!
  • test
  • I'm back from very spicy indian food and now linking these million symbols.

    Write in if you can - i had to come via the pc-side on IE.
    ...that's all i'm gonna say about pc's, cuz i hate fighting over computers
  • raised_by_wolves
    I'm back from spicy thai food for which I didn't even have to dumpster dive. Thank you for the post. I especially liked your statement about chess. By the way, do you ever play chess? I finished a 71 move game ending in a draw.

    1. f3 g6 2. e4 Bg7 3. Bc4 Nf6 4. Ne2 d6 5. d3 b6 6. Nbc3 a5 7. a4 Ba6 8. Nd5 Bxc4 9. dxc4 Nbd7 10. Bd2 Qb8 11. Bg5 Qa7 12. c3 e6 13. Nxf6+ Nxf6 14. Be3 d5 15. cxd5 exd5 16. exd5 O-O-O 17. c4 Qa6 18. Rc1 Rhe8 19. Bg5 Re5 20. Bf4 Rf5 21. O-O b5 22. cxb5 Qb6+ 23. Kh1 Nxd5 24. Rxc7+ Nxc7 25. Qc2 Rfd5 26. Rc1 Be5 27. h3 Bxf4 28. Nxf4 Rd2 29. Qb3 g5 30. Nh5 Qf2 31. Rg1 Rxb2 32. Qc4 Qh4 33. Qc3 Rdd2 34. b6 Rxb6 35. Qxd2 Qxh5 36. Qxa5 Qg6 37. Rc1 Rc6 38. Re1 f5 39. Qd2 h5 40. Rd1 g4 41. Qd8+ Kb7 42. Rb1+ Ka6 43. Qd3+ Ka7 44. Qb3 Ka6 45. a5 g3 46. Qe3 h4 47. Qe5 f4 48. Rd1 Qc2 49. Qe1 Ne8 50. Kg1 Nd6 51. Kf1 Nc4 52. Rc1 Qd3+ 53. Qe2 Qxe2+ 54. Kxe2 Nxa5 55. Rxc6+ Nxc6 56. Kd3 Kb5 57. Ke4 Ne7 58. Kxf4 Kc5 59. Kg5 Kd5 60. Kxh4 Nf5+ 61. Kg4 Ke5 62. h4 Ke6 63. h5 Ke5 64. h6 Nxh6+ 65. Kxg3 Kf5 66. f4 Ke4 67. Kh4 Kxf4 68. g3+ Kf3 69. Kg5 Ng4 70. Kh4 Nf6 71. Kg5 Kxg3 1/2-1/2
  • Nice match.
    I used to play - hope to play again, but too consuming until I give up trading (or poker ;)
  • raised_by_wolves
    I think of it as a way to sharpen my brain, something that won't hurt my trading as long as I don't let it consume too much of my time.

    I don't have any girlfriend or wife. I don't have any kids. I do have some free time.
  • W or B?

    anyway I have to take a look on a board, I don't visualize well enough for games with closed pawn walls and bishops and knight a bit too overstreched for that stage

    BTW you weren't trying any classic opening were you?
  • raised_by_wolves
    Black.

    This was my opening:

    http://screencast.com/t/OTM3Nzdk

    Two moves later, I made a mistake that would expose my king later in the game:

    http://screencast.com/t/ZGQwY2ViZDgt
  • I absolutely agree
  • cub, it's been almost 20 years since I played any chess, and it's early morning here but (without looking at the game you posted) just from the positions on the screen either it goes to full havoc of swaping pieces or you risked being stuck, whites had opened in a more flexible way.
  • raised_by_wolves
    Looks like . . .

    http://screencast.com/t/M2ZlMDY5Mz

    . . . I was drunk enough to castle to the wrong side:

    http://screencast.com/t/YjBlYzE5N2Q

    Nevertheless, my higher ranked opponent congratulated me, saying I played well (by the way, mitchmitchell is my screen name on GameKnot in case you want to start playing after 20 years of brain rot):

    http://screencast.com/t/NWVmZWM5

    Look, I even ended with one more piece on the board:

    http://screencast.com/t/ZmI5MzAzZTAt
  • you can't mate with king and horse

    BTW I had wondered if your opponent had cut the obvious minor rock with an attack on your left flank, but it seems you did it yourself LOL
  • raised_by_wolves
    Actually, you can mate with king and knight under special circumstances:

    http://screencast.com/t/Y2ZmMmNlMTUt

    Why don't you stop critiquing me and start playing again by challenging me to a game after market close? We can do one move per two days. You can critique all you want as we play.
  • and did you take a look at the rules and guidelines in the link I posted?
  • raised_by_wolves
    The Elliot Wave Rules—yes, I took a look and have bookmarked them. Now, I desperately need to get my three hours of beauty sleep. Catch you on the flip side.
  • go on and sleep, knowing our plans for world domination are close to fruition

    after the zhuzhu stainless steel hamsters for land control

    we are now close to air supremacy

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/12/07/rat_bra...
  • not agains a single king you can't (even with another piece it's a bit of a bull mate, he has to screw himself)

    I will criticize as much as I feel like (how the hell can you get better by praise?)
  • raised_by_wolves
    Hamster won't play? :-(
  • cub, I was a bit overbooked BTW what GMT hours fit yo best? (so that I can pick a day and take some time to play)
  • raised_by_wolves
    You are welcome (1) to respond to that challenge I sent to your inbox to play an unrated game as a guest or (2) to get yourself a username on gameknot.com and challenge me to a rated game.

    I'm going to bed early so won't even be keeping my almost-a-routine of being online between 7 and 9 AM GMT. Good night, er good morning friend.
  • ok, one of this days, you understand that for someone on GMY (and a night bird to boost it's not the best timetable)

    but we'll play one of these days
  • raised_by_wolves
    Starting when both are present, playing in realtime, and finishing a game within a few hour period is nice but not necessary. We could play asynchronously. I like the rule of having to move a minimum of once per two days. Gameknot.com is set up for such asynchronous play.
  • raised_by_wolves
    Contrary to rumors, this wolf pup does sleep. However, he doesn't keep any predefined sleep schedule. The most probable time to find him online is 7-9 AM GMT. That's the closet to a routine that he has. Otherwise, he's popping in and out at almost any hour of the day or night.
  • prety much my case, but been trying to straighten my timetable
  • raised_by_wolves
    One last comment for the night: Yes, you can play the role of critic while you play me chess. Check your inbox.
  • Guest
    What just happened to futures?
  • elliott_surfs
    Don't know yet...but I'm loving it
  • Cole
    11:10 p.m. CST FAIL: futures, euro, oil
  • Mole,
    there is seams to be a problem posting using FireFox.
    May be you have to shoot an email to Daniel or whoever

    http://screencast.com/t/MjY5ZjFiZTc

    no problem in IE

  • Same here. no firefox or safari - blocked from commenting on this site.
  • No idea what's going on guys - I think disqus is fucking up again. I am posting this in Firefox right now!
  • Scoops
  • texpresso
    just noticed: BRCD is fundamentally solid at $8, good Q and good guidance, unless you have inside info i don't there is no downside. TQNT and XLNX have decreasing RSIs b/c they were overbought, but IMO they have little downside at current prices. JNPR and CSCO are overbought, if there is a drop they have extra downside; a lot of people are nervous about CIEN, near lows, but if they run up, then they should run back down. INFN is the dog in the sector, same outlook as CIEN, not much downside at $8
  • This is a screen, basically; based on technicals.
    The Networking group has fallen from a 64 rank 3wks ago to 96 last wk, to 105 this wk (out of 197). Within that group BRCD has something of an island top and has broken down on major volume. That's more than enough for me to put it on a potential short list
  • texpresso
    BRCD island is based upon buyout rumors that got dashed when HPQ bought COM, not on any business news; biz is good.
  • texpresso
    thanks for the ideas Michael. looking at nikkei and hang seng up ~3%, unless Europe is down, i will open tomorrow long, then short into the week. every Monday lately... i follow LVLT closely, not much short-term downside there IMO. SLB and HAL may get a boost when WFT publicly announces they are closing their west texas frac unit--or it may not effect at all, still a lot of competition here
  • Persian_Gerb
    shorting Funeral Svcs & Related - now THAT's evillllll.
    hope you make a killing.
    ;-)
  • fast996
    I Like your list.

    I would add these hi flyers

    GOOG,AMZN,PCLN,BIDU,IBM,AAPL caveat close stops but most have reversal patterns completing or are up against multi year resistence.

    I still think there's the smell of ass hair burning in the air lol, I don't know what's going to crash this mofo,but it's comin.
blog comments powered by Disqus

    feed

      Subscribe

    twitter

      Follow me on Twitter

    search site

    spx zero

    obey!

    obey!

    big picture

    Big Picture

  1. recent misdeeds

    1. Living Inside a Broken Clock: Tuesday, Feb. 9, 2010
    2. Weak Tape
    3. Euro Trash
    4. Yodel-oh-didöööh!
    5. Tee-heee!!
    6. Living Inside a Broken Clock: Thursday, Feb. 4, 2010
    7. Soylent Rainbow
    8. Bucky Bear Squeeze
    9. Living Inside a Broken Clock: Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2010
    10. Living Inside a Broken Clock: Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2010

  2. categories

    archives


    3. evil tease

    Get your own Evil Tease!

    obey again!



    sleep inducers

    Elliott Wave Principle Conquer The Crash Chart Your Way To Profits
    Trend Following Way Of The Turtle The Black Swan

    obbedire!

    Subscribe to Retracement Levels