Buck Up!

What’s going on? We haven’t filled the gap yet? I was fairly sure I’d see all the lost territory recovered by about 3:30pm – could be there is a disturbance in the force? Alright, this post is late and probably won’t be read until after the close but it’s important we keep an eye on ole’ bucky as it gives us a reasonable bias as to what might happen in equities going forward.

That’s a nice bounce thus far and although I’m not getting my hopes up just yet I also don’t want to be negative as this has been the wildest snap back in weeks. So, when will we most likely see some push back by the Dollar bears? For that we turn to our trusted DXY odds calculator courtesy of 2sweeties over at retracementlevels.com.

As you know I’m starting with the odds first and looking at the chart above you’ll see the expected resistance zone I’ve highlighted. Based on that a 100% odds of 77.19 is probably realistic at least short term. Currently we are just short of the 76.30 RL and considering a 77.19 100% RL this one has a 47% chance of holding – not bad but not great either. I personally like the 75% odds at 76.64 a lot better. But let’s take a peek at the frequency tab first:

Seems the highest historic frequencies are at 76.64 followed with 77.19. So, if I was a Dollar bear (which I’m not – well, maybe short term) I would not make a move until we touch 76.6ish – we’ve got 20% frequency combined with 75% odds.

However, a quick warning – based on my count we got a Minuette (1) to the upside, followed by a (2) which reversed close to this year’s bottom. We are now in a third wave and it might sub divide – so, if you go short around 76.6 don’t get too comfortable if/once the tape moves in your favor (i.e. down). Take profits quickly as this could either be a fourth wave or just one of the brief sub wave pull backs.

Anyway, today was a great way to scale out of some of those left over December puts – nice little spike on the VIX. However, let’s not forget that the 2.0 BB on that VIX is compressed, so it’s possible we see one more equity buy signal in a few days from now:

Now the timing of an outside close on the VIX might coincide with a third wave peak on the Dollar. So be careful and if you have short term put options that’s when you want to scale out of those suckers. Remember, Dec puts only have 10 days left – theta burn is a bitch.

Finally, our friends over at EWI just updated their free report ‘How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups‘. It’s been a huge hit with traders and hey – it’s a freebie – so go out and get it.

There is something brewing out there – hope it gains traction.

Cheers,

Mole

This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 8th, 2009 at 5:08 pm and is filed under Currencies, Elliott Wave Theory, Retracement Levels. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • goldpackers
    If the bullish count is correct, we are completing wave C of a flat that began at 1114 with the A wave bottom at 1086 and B wave top at 1119. 1114 is the orthodox high and would need to be exceeded at minimum. The C wave should hold 1080 ish into 12-10/11. If correct any rally would be over by 12-18/21.

    The bearish count is a new low tomorrow/ friday would be 5 waves down and just an abc bounce into 12-18/21.

    Either way, be short now and add the week of 12-21.
  • goldpackers
    The spy 1000 puts are twice as much as the 1180 calls....... What does that mean? a lot of portfolio insurance?
  • goldpackers
    For Feb 2010
  • goldpackers
    New low today ends third; bounce and then a new low tomorrow or Friday is 5 waves down.

    If the diagonal is complete then we should have a hard sharp sell off over the next month. 10% would give us 1007 spx.

    That's my story and I'm sticking to it!
  • goldpackers
    Should trade to 1073 to 1086 into Friday. That would either be 5 waves down for the beginning of a bigger move down or 5 waves down for c of a flat and we test or make new highs again. Favor the more bearish scenario.

    GL
  • gmak
    Who would have thought that Hamsters could nag? :-)

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=13420#disqus_thread
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  • Schwerepunkt
    Euro jumping now at 8am. Guess we ramp into the open.
  • Trying to regain the pivot
  • well things are slow...
  • goldpackers
    BobTheHorse, I believe you will get your 1000, actually 1007, but not till the first 2 to 3 weeks of January
  • Guest
    Ultimately I think 920 is possible but prob not until March. Have been crunching some macro data in last couple of days and it is beginning to look like Q4 could be pretty soft, i.e. stimulus rolling off, but inventory cycle not yet started. That could create a growth scare which takes us to 920. Then you get max long and ride a move through the all-time highs.
  • goldpackers
    Are you not concerned with earnings comparisons Q2/3 of 2010?
  • Guest
    in what sense?
  • goldpackers
    Could be tough comparisons from Q2/3 of 09
  • Guest
    Not if top lines start to grow as I think they will. The operational leverage will kick in and earnings will come in miles ahead of this years.
  • CorporalCarrot
    Bob, I appreciate this exact point and will be watching like a hawk next year. All my long positions "unwind" in march and I will need to decide whether to be net long or short the market.

    A couple of things I hope you could elaborate on.

    Firstly, not just the "relative" performance here but absolute performance. There was a chap on bloomberg the other night making the very point you are making. The interesting thing to me however, was that he was quoting the SPX p/e EXCLUDING LOSS MAKING COMPANIES, as a basis for the index being relatively cheap. Its therefore an easily understood theory that should those companies grow the top, with costs pared to the bone there should be abnormal outperformance at the bottom line.

    However, what happens to the index p/e if some of those loss makers trickle into breakeven or modest profitability. Will they will drag down his comparison in a bad way??

    Secondly, just to point out that this year, SPX earnings are still down some 20-30% on prior (which was already a bad year) and even more down on 2007. So while they have been trouncing estimates, we are still a long way from achieving the earnings levels that accompanied the absolute highs, so presumably the gap is the yield curve/currency play?

    And then, this all assumes theres no final day of reckoning for the enormous state borrowing taking place. At some point, stimulous withdrawal or tax raising is going to have to come into play creating a negative feedback loop?
  • Do anyhow have info on the new TOS currencies.....option now for either commissionioned trade or noncimissionned trades????

    Thanks much!
  • hey GMAK?

    ready for a broken clock?
  • PRSGuitars
    EUR just over pivot, stops blown -- check! ES under short term MAs + vwap -- check! DX approaching pivot from above -- check!

    Everything lining up for an SPX pullback, DX bounce. Might be short, but will be sweet. Would fit in this choppy, head-fake-y night.

    Timeframe -- imminent to short (1-2 hrs).

    http://screencast.com/t/NDY3YWIxM
  • PRSGuitars
    If NQ breaks 1777 and ES 1095, obviously, all bets are off. Nice descending TL on NQ.

    Pissed as hell b/c I can't get fills tonight. Missed a 30 pip scalp in a matter of 20 seconds (by a handful of contracts, just no fill!)... should learn when to chase. Then closed another for breakeven and watched another 20 pip scalp materialize - no joke - a minute afterwards.

    ARGH! Oh well. Small potatoes tonight.
  • Cable is up over a cent in 3 hours after sticking a toe through support and h&s neckline and seemingly rejecting lower prices resoundingly... for now.

    Been wondering about this one - obviously there is a perfectly valid elliott count that indicates lower prices - but two side by side h&s's?

    http://screencast.com/t/MTYyZTc5YzUt
  • Morning, morning, morning...

    Little divergence still building here in up/down volume on the 10 MA?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUPV:$NYDNV&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p69158901155
  • CorporalCarrot
    RAGING BULL MARKET OR NO?????

    The bullishness on CNBC is undiminished. Cramer is screaming buy buy buy (despite this time last year when the market was a mere 400 dow points lower screaming sell sell sell and telling people to take all their money out of the market unless they didn't need it for 5 years), all the other presenters can't wipe the grins off their faces, bearish pundits are looked on with amusement and disdain. This is clearly a Raging Bull market, isn't it? I mean, thats clear to any dunce out there with a ruler????

    Not so fast. Lets take a look at the major world indices, and the first date in this move since March when they hit their current levels;

    CAC/Dax - 16/9/09 - 2.75 months going nowhere
    FTSE - 12/10/09 - 2 months going nowhere
    Shanghai - 22/7 - 4.5 months going nowhere
    Nikkei - 11/6!!! - 6 months going nowhere
    S&P - 14/10 - 2 months going nowhere
    Dow 10/11 - 1 month going nowhere.

    So despite this perception that equities are tearing it up, in actual fact, most world equities of note have spent months doing absolutely nothing.

    The strongest market is of course the Dow, which happens to be the most easily distorted due to the idiotic price weighting. If you forget the Dow, I simply don't understand the overwhelming perception this is a raging bull. It isn't, its a traders market.

    I think this is also the reason why over this time period, so many bears are getting hosed. Its through trying to pick tops, waiting for confirmation of a fall, then chasing a move.

    But there is no doubt whatsoever that momentum is waning here. I think January could be very interesting.
  • well I also cannot believe this rally we have had...but despite hoping the bear will be back soon, 2/3 months of "going nowhere" could also be bullish consolidation. It still feels like TOO many as you say trying to top pick, but also think we need to see the bulls blow off before we get a decent move down...(saying this we will probably get the move soon!) Maybe DOW 11k, FTSE 5700, DAX 6200...Xmas trading probably cont range bound...
  • CorporalCarrot
    But doesn't bullish consolidation normally follow a breach of a significant long term resistance line or a parabolic rise? For example, after golds violent move above $1,000, we had a period of bullish consolidation between $980-$1,020 before the huge move upwards.

    The equity markets seem different to me. Look at the chart for this year, and draw simple trend lines from top to top. You can see clearly waning momentum on each drive.

    If anything, bullish consolidation occurred between may-july following the violent rebound from the 666 low. Since then we have been in a period of repeated rallies, each one shallower than the last, until the current rally has only managed to barely exceed the prior one.

    Heres how I view it;

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2009-01-01&id=p37803072571&a=179988331

    That being said, given the time of year, I have to acknowledge the risk of a significant move on very light volumes which could hit your targets. Indeed, a few days back I posted targets of 10,800-11,000 myself as possible.

  • nice chart...! Yes..I can see your view as well...maybe mine has been distorted by the numerous fake moves down..oh no maybe I have been brainwashed..can only see bull...:)
  • CorporalCarrot
    This has been the point of so many of my recent posts. Bears are allegedly waiting for confirmation of a move, but most of them can't resist jumping in at the first sign of a turn (or are scared of missing a major drop) which results in them constantly losing money even where the market is going nowhere. Alternatively, they are trying to time things to perfection, and losing theta on options that are far too short dated.

    One thing I noticed on the chart is that this most recent rally and consolidation/stalling (take your pick), is the least distance from the 50 ema that this market has been for quite some time. It will be very interesting if we continue in this pattern and the EMA rises to meet it, or we fall a bit further to test it. Every touch (or even getting close to) of the 50 ema since july has been met with a violent rebound. A close beneath would be interesting, and its at 1,078 and rising.
  • good morning. reporting for duty;-)
  • raised_by_wolves
    Let's tag team as I better get some rest in case tomorrow is a (surprisingly) important day. You're in. I'm out.
  • get some sleep, no hendrix and champignons tonight you crazy cub
  • tradejane
    Guten Morgen to you too,

    the DAX opened well below its pivot of 5719 today but it hasn't done us the favor of break the 5640 level yet. Banks are among the weakest and even TecDAX is struggling so it might just do that later on.
  • I mentioned range action for a while, let's see

    and.. bom dia
  • tradejane
    >I mentioned range action for a while

    Yes, I agree. DAX bounced right off the 5640, ready to go green and the banks are recovering. Euro is reving it up as well, seems to have made some kind of a temporary bottom on the 2 day chart. Should we go above today's pivot we could see 5750 and 5780. (reshorting opportunity)
  • PRSGuitars
    EUR alert -- right at pivot, DX almost at its pivot (and crucial 76 level right below it), also, /DX at 20 hourly SMA. Watch it -- DX might pop here, EUR retreating to find more of a bottom/basing formation.

    Just my 2c -- couldnt catch EUR short just yet (at 45 or so), a little too fast. Might enter tight short here against long NQ just for a little pairs-against shot. Keep things tight -- if this breaks long (EUR) watch out, the momentum could bring us to 1.482 in a heartbeat.
  • We closed below the trendline I drew yesterday morning, which is brilliant. Now retesting it; if we get turned back, then look out below I reckon..

    http://screencast.com/t/ZGRmMzI0ZTY
  • PRSGuitars
    EUR channel retest, just for you, ultra:

    http://screencast.com/t/NDY3YWIxM
  • Niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice ;-)
  • tradejane
    I've a question for those who are familiar with options. I was checking out the Jan10 options on SKF at Yahoo Finance and I noticed some interesting volume and open interest at rather, hmmm, far out strike prices. What could that mean?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MGJkYWFiNj

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NjZiYjVlYT

    April10 calls

    http://www.screencast.com/t/NGU0ODRh
  • Guest
    Nothing. Vol trading books will trade durations and strikes miles away from where you might think is normal purely to manage their greeks exposure. Because these options are not actively traded, there appear to be these volume spikes but it doesn't really mean much. Most likely is that these were simply counterparty trades done with banks which then get reported to the exchange. If you actually went into the market to try and do that kind of volume, it wouldn't be possible.
  • tradejane
    Thanks! Somebody was telling me the other day how they were able to predict a movement by following option volume/interest and I wanted to see if the idea had any merit. I'll just stick to my tealeaves then.
  • Guest
    you can infer stuff from open interest around near strikes on expiry but not out in the option wilderness.
  • I use moon phases....tea leaves are too volatile!
  • I ching anyone?

    LOL
  • elliott_surfs
    i don't take i ching too seriously, but some answers you get can be mighty creepy. and them chinese have been around for a damn long time =p
    (when asking about the market, it often gives "waiting" hexagram. yeah, no shit...)
  • and the moving lines?
  • Excuse me? What is that? I ching thing
  • chinese divination technique sticks or coins, you end up an hexagram with 6 numbers/lines and a further hexagram taking into account moving lines

    Interpretation follows from given hexagrams and moving line

    took a look out of curiosity because my favorite science fiction writer had a thing for I Ching (and so did Jung)

  • Guest
    Personally, I am holding on to my Dec Puts. Options this short-dated have virtually no vega anyway so the Vix spike is worth very little and I think there is the best chance for a while of a serious move down. Dominos are wobbling. Dubai has gone, Greece is on the brink and attention will turn to Ireland, Spain, etc. The EU is facing its biggest crisis yet. Will France and Germany bail out Greece? If they do, the market will then make them bail out Ireland. They can't save everyone so who will be sacrificed? This is a big one.
  • Its been like that for a long time though....Why not just roll to Jan?
  • raised_by_wolves
    I'm thinking about rolling the other way (is it still called rolling?): Long terms to mid terms and mid terms to short terms. I would want to get my timing pretty damn good though. Either right before the first down leg of P3 (how am I going to know it's right around the corner?) or, after the first down leg, near the top of wave two (are we going to recognize the first down leg once it's happened?) Without doing any rolling, I can still load up on some short term puts but as soon as I can roll with clarity and confidence. . . .
  • my bet, right now, is april 2010 for low

    crazy hamster
  • You are allowed to roll backward....but not after two pitchers of beer.
  • raised_by_wolves
    Edit: LOL

    It's not like I'm going to roll backward at market open (unless the conditions that I wrote down on that napkin that I've stuffed into my right, er left coat pocket are met). I get my best ideas and make my best plans after two pitchers—the bill says three but who's counting (besides the pub and the woman I tipped generously)?—but I'm well aware that there's lower probability of me implementing those ideas/plans under the influence. I can do it hung over though ;-)
  • CorporalCarrot
    Because they are worth 2/10th's of fuck all at this stage, if I were to hazard a guess.
  • Guest
    correct
  • elliott_surfs
    ES taking a nice hit...where is everyone?
  • Perfect time for a top...disgust, disinterest, and distracted......3D for 3's and C's
  • raised_by_wolves
    Yeah, where are all the futures traders like RSP, uh, SPR, uh PRS Guitars.

    As for me, I'm browsing options for a potential purchase of January 2010 puts or put spreads (don't have any of those—all of mine are June 2010 and January 2011) while drinking my, uh, third (?) pitcher of Mac & Jacks or whatever this is that I ordered from the brunette with the nice smile.

    Elliot, were you shorting ES before that long reversal? Did you reach your target or get stopped out? You should try trading from a bar if only once to see if you can trade with an altered state of mind.

    Talk to you again five and a half hours from now. Time to go home. Wherever home is. "Where is everyone?" Indeed, the human situation is to be utterly alone with no home, is it not?
  • home is where your @ss is.

  • tradejane
    >You should try trading from a bar if only once to see if you can trade with an altered state of mind.

    Kudos if that works for you. Last time I did that I went all-in FAZ at 100.
  • raised_by_wolves
    Last time I did that I ended up exiting all positions. Perhaps we're opposites. You know what they say about opposites. . . .

    Never mind, because you're married (or have a significant other), aren't you (don't you)?
  • tradejane
    Yes. Very.

    My only advice on the subject is, if you are a nut go for a sane one. Unless your name is Sartre or Henry Miller.
  • raised_by_wolves
    Hehe, have I sufficiently demonstrated that I'm a nut?
  • PRSGuitars
    The Wall, A+ ... love the synecdoche of sorts (yes I'm taking poetic license with this poetic term!) with existentialist lit -- in particular the gray, bleakness of the prison walls and faint, fleeting sunlight (clarity), the randomness with which prisoners die, etc. -- all symbolic of the larger work within which we are all characters... humanity (cheesy phrasing, but you get it).

    Plenty of good stuff out there, I personally had a blast with Godot because it's so fast and funny while still rather heady stuff (linguistically).
  • GO TO SLEEP!
  • raised_by_wolves
    Oh, thank you, I had practically forgotten.

    Since I overspent on beer, I will have to underspend on a hostel. Time to find a warm air vent instead.
  • hot air vent... lucky cub, in my time there were only cold air vents

    next you'll be saying you'll get covered by newspapers.... in my time you'd be lucky to have 1 (only slightly used) toilet paper

    these youngsters don't know how easy their life is...
  • raised_by_wolves
    LOL

    Guess I'm used to a life of luxury.
  • take over you lucky cub ;-)
  • raised_by_wolves
    You mean take over the duty of moderating while you go whiz? :-)
  • hamsters need to eat
  • haven't heard the news? You have to be out of your mind to short this bull market ;-)
  • raised_by_wolves
    [Starting my second pitcher of beer] This is not a prediction. I'm not saying this is what I think is going to happen. All I'm saying is I have to be prepared for this possibility.

    http://screencast.com/t/ODNlZjA4
  • Thats just the start....
  • LOL

    You nearly made me choke on my breakfast crumpet with that one...
  • raised_by_wolves
    Glad you survived and got a good laugh. Neither were my intent.

    Edit: I mean, glad you didn't die and got a good laugh though neither were my intent :-)
  • LOL - you are on form tonight, mate
  • fast996
    DavidDT,

    That chart is definately not today or the last month. Totaly different pattern, my guess it resolved bullishly. The current pattern should be bearish with a capital "B"

    fast
  • TWD
    IYR closed again under the 50% fib line of the september 08 high and the march 09 low. The amount of gyrations around the 50 line over the past couple of months leads me to conclude that it at a key decision point. If IYR can somehow manage successive closes over the line, then it may very well challenge the gap at $50. However as agonizingly stubborn this sector has been, it again has broken under the major trend line (Logarithim) from march lows. Can it stay under this time?

    Update to chart. Now with more LOTR references!

    http://www.screencast.com/t/YTY2ODIxNGE
  • I would say it goes to 40 in no time

  • crush1618
    Does this mean we are to expect a 10% devaluation of the dollar? I hope not..

    Pimco Says ‘Fear Not,’ Weak Dollar Will Spur Growth (Update2)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...
  • Jan
    Thanks for the great post, Mole. Also love Gmak's broken clock and look forward to it each morning.

    I'm on my last nerve with this market and I'm wondering if it's time to get a job (now that there are no jobs). I miss the days when we were able to back up the truck and make some nice profits from good TA. Seems like a casino now.

    Now that Crap and Trade is a sure thing due to the recent EPA regulation, we can anxiously wait as the next bubble approaches.
  • raised_by_wolves
    It sounds like you've been trading for a living. How long have you been doing that?
  • Jan
    I've been trading for a living since 2007. Still just getting my feet wet and thinking you need balls of steel to do this.
  • goldpackers
    And more than 2 balls!!
  • Do you mean living, or trading?
  • raised_by_wolves
    Technically, I meant neither since living, trading, and trading for a living are three separate categories. Represented as a Venn diagram, living would be the larger circle, trading would be the middle one within the larger, and trading for a living would be the smaller one within the middle one within the larger one.

    It was a serious question (I wasn't drunk when I asked so had not yet metamorphosed into an extreme male chauvinist) based on a genuine curiosity about how long she has been trading for a living.
  • blogs are ghost towns - shopping on credit again?
    Eh, what the hell - none is going to pay back anyways - only morons honor their fiscal responsibilities.
  • Actually on the way back from my CPA Mrs. Evil and I decided to pop by a mall close to LAX. We couldn't believe our eyes - the whole place was completely deserted - we found parking within the first 30 seconds after entering the parking structure. What really cracked me up however were the prices - no change at all - same inflated prices they were asking for the stuff I usually buy during the bubble years. We both decided to leave and to come back after Christmas - let's see if they sell their inventory - I got some puts on a few designer shirts and new shoes ;-)

    On the way there in the morning we passed some new one family homes they just completed close to Jefferson and La Cienega - really iffy neighborhood, trust me. It's the part when L.C. turns into a four way highway that gets you to the airport. You get to look at basically a freeway all day and it's noisy/stinky as well. In the not so far distance you can see oil pumps as the land is sitting on some old deposits. Asking price for those pieces of shit? $500k!!! I couldn't believe my eyes - was really wondering what the fuck those developers were smoking when pricing it. Those things will never be sold - I can guarantee you that. Anyone who still can afford to buy a $500k house would never waste his coin on a spot like that - it's a guaranteed way to lose money. The bubble mentality is still strong out here - all evidence to the contrary. I think old habits die very slowly - might take a real depression to reset some of those people out here.

    As George Carlin used to put it so aptly: People are fucking stupid.
  • fast996
    By my take we have a c or wave e thrust up in the e mini futures tonight to coincide with the wave 2 corection down in the dollar.

    Which for the bears means, a wave 3 down is dead ahead possibly.

    We had a failed rally last night in the futures....de ja vu???
  • can tell when this snapshot was taken?
    http://screencast.com/t/MDA0MDk1ZG
  • fast996
    Dave,

    Is this a test,lol.

    6:40+- am pst

    fast

    or looking at your chart 6:36???
  • ha-ha
    no tests...yeah ..kind of...
    no need for time - do you know the date?

    My first guess is - you think it is TODAY??? Nuh, not today :)
  • matsou
    check out crude oil. Landed exactly on strong support now and has run out of steam on the daily CCI - starting to look oversold. should unfortunately be having a sizeable move up today or tomorrow? what do you guys think?
  • How many more TOS users found out that they lost all custom drawings after last release?
    Please, stop by at my blog - we will be "collecting signatures" with possible future development - TOS really stepping over the line - enough is enough.
  • Guys - I have a good wire into Sosnoff - so collect signatures and then send them to me. I make sure he takes care of you guys.
  • ASDF123
    While you're at it, could you please have him hustle up on e-mini futures trading for his Canadian customers? They've been telling me "soon" for over a year. Somehow it's because of the merger, but I don't see how that would back it up for a year.
  • Well, Scott for now practically accused me of lying, he wrote what I heard so many times before in my cube slavery past (and I gave myself the word that no asshole will aver say it again):

    "This is very odd as I have not heard of this happening to any other customer."
    Translation: FUCK OFF YOU STUPID POWERLESS CUSTOMER
  • Who is Scott? I'm sure Tom would care very much about this - he's always gone out of his way to resolve technical problems.
  • weasel_whisperer
    That's never a good response to a customer having problems.
  • The_Grim_Reaper
    I think the fed just needed to generate some interest in their treasury auctions this week, so the downside could continue for a bit. Nevertheless, the 10 year along with other indicators are near equity buy signals again, so I'm not too bearish yet. I'm probably just going to sit in cash till the next rape of the dollar starts.
  • Homebuilders and financials weighting the market down. We are still within the context of a large trading range between SPY 108/ES 1084 and the year highs. We will need some follow through if we are to even test the low of the range and we all know how futile it has been to expect any kind of follow-through either way as of late...
    http://tinyurl.com/yc7exkc
  • momac
    Thanks for the post Mole and the daily updates gmak.
    I had already gotten rid of most of my Dec. puts, the rest are so worthless that it'd cost more to sell them than what I'd get back. I'm still hoping for a big crash before next Friday so that they'll actually be worth something. :-)
  • One can dream - but the point I made a day or two ago is that the MMs are going to try to screw all December put holders, of which there are plenty as it's a quarterly. Many bears started to load up on those in August/September/October and they will have to watch them expire worthlessly. Which is actually why I think any significant drop will come in January at this point - the bears lost this battle in late October to early November. I told Berk then that I thought this thing is going to push into January as I suspected they would try to hold the tape until after December.
  • Joe8888
    Wow...Emerging Markets - EEM Monthly Chart...... Are up against Heavy Resistance !!!

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/ca8068a3-16eb-4cea-ad28-0e9017bcbd7b
  • Guest
  • Another volatile session, we are closing in on the lower end of the recent trading range. Bears almost finished the job today http://bit.ly/6s4NQt
  • Is everyone X-Mas shopping?
  • I guess so - had a few more charts to share but it's probably best to wait until tomorrow...
  • took a day off to celebrate mrs hamster's law degree and my birthday (party suspended due to mrs hamster's final examination on monday)

    but I'M BACK!
  • Tronacate
    Try my new pic
  • no tongue?
  • cedieke
    LOL, they getting better en better
  • Tronacate
    too bad both of these dudes didn't get hung.....

    http://farm1.static.flickr.com/21/37241165_1d62a27754.jpg?v=0
  • Tronacate
    DXZ 76.295
  • BTW - just in case anyone wonders - I'm not a republican - far from that.
  • raised_by_wolves
    I was going to send you a message asking you to cease and desist all political discourse before I realized it was you, sir.
  • roscoe_casita
    Dematocrons or Republocrats, Two sides of the same coin.
  • you said it right
  • Tronacate
    I was a one issue voter.....end the war......seems it didn't pan out......Ron Paul would have been the choice in retrospect......too bad the repubs didn't take him seriously.
  • Tronacate
    I mean....why in god's name do we have bases in 120 some odd countries??......no wonder everybody gets pissed off...
  • ASDF123
    The US may overplay its hard sometimes, but they're not that bad, all things considered. Nature abhors a vacuum. If the US didn't have army bases all over the place, someone much less benevolent would.
  • Well, that's not a reason though - especially as it drives resources away from where it's really needed - education, social services, health care, etc. BTW, I'm mostly worried about education - an educated populace solves and properly manages the latter two. Instead we've got snake oil salesmen profiteering from the degrading quality of life in America.
  • roncofooddehydrator
    Time magazine just had an article about how this past decade is probably the worst post-WWII decade. The median household income in 2000 was $52,500. Last year (the most recent year available) it was $50,303. Given that there's inflation in there, the quality of life is definitely degrading for the average American. The % living below the poverty line increased from 11.3% to 13.2% and people without health insurance increased from 13.7% to 15.4%.

    http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1942834-1,00.html
  • Not sure why tax payers keep voting people in power who keep those bases operating. Let's face it the military-industrial complex is running this country - it'll take a lot of pain and sacrifice to push those fuckers out of power.
  • Tronacate
    Exactly what Eisenhower warned against has come to pass.
    And a poor job market just sucks more kids into the military......very few other options.
  • Men like Eisenhower are rare these days - and all those suckers vote into office are snakes and con man that can talk the talk but don't even intend to walk the walk. It's a rigged game - unfortunately the U.S. public seems to learn very slowly.
  • kokoro33
    yep

    The FC's and The Machine
    and the state controlled media

  • Your avatar freaks me out - is it time already? Just one more year!! I'll be good!!
  • jacksoo
    US accounts for +40% of ALL military expenditure worldwide ($1.5 trillion) - next biggest China at less than 6% - -makes you wonder what it might do with some of that money being used for other purposes. Of course when you've a Gov spending ~$700 billion p.a. big business has good reason to lobby.
  • Tronacate
    ^^^^ sick and wrong......and we won't sign on to a landmine ban....sad
  • jacksoo
    nothing 'wrong' about the detail T - -numbers are correct -
  • Thanks for sharing Mole.
  • Mole, while I do appreciate the work gmak puts in for the daily updates, your posts and analysis are the crown jewels of Evil Speculator. Have you done an updated "SPREAD: Moodys Baa minus 30 year Treasury Yield : SPX" chart since Nov. 17th?
  • I hope for your own sake gmak doesn't see this ;-)

    I did update that damn chart and the spread remains stuck at 2.0% - even dipped to 1.99% for a day or two. Not what I would expect to see close to a peak - it's making me nervous. Perhaps this time around it won't lead a drop - but still - would be nicer to see this thing push up.
  • I was hoping to see some confirmation from that chart. Sucks.

    One thing that has my attention recently is the chart for PFF (iShares preferred US stock ETF). Now, granted, it is overweight in financials. But, what this chart is telling me is that it has been building a H&S pattern since August, that could take it down to June/July price levels if the pattern plays out. No one seems to blog about preferred stocks. I know that the bond market is said to be more sophisticated than the equities market. Any thoughts about what the action in preferred stocks is telling us?
  • Since CD was yanking my chain about APPL on the prior page - here we go:

    AAPL didn't budge today and it's holding at the support line - so far so good.

    I also suggested short BHP and take a look a that one today :-P

    CHK also held at support - as suggested.

    CRK - I marked the green entry at the support line - and we are there as hoped.

    DE - one of my shorts - look at that one today :-P

    DGT - another one of my shorts - so sweet - and it's almost at target :-P

    DLTR - ran up as expected - but a bit earlier than I had hoped - so I wave you that one.

    DRYS - dropped further towards the entry as expected - I am waiting for 6.0

    FWLT - another one I was hoping would drop to support - it's right there.

    So - thus far I'm not doing so badly, ey? Perhaps Anna is not the only one who knows how to pick 'em? ;-)
  • vix pulls back to 23.00 wed
    spikes to 24.89 thurs
  • Finally, the crystal ball we have been waiting for. BTW, I will check those tomorrow - you better be right ;-)
  • thats my 4cast
    im shorting into the anticipated weak ass bounce
  • HungryNewt
    Thanks as always for your posts mole... but I have to strongly disagree with the speaker in the video.
    "Rah Rah! Yay country. Yay bs revisionist history. yay you can affect the course of this country via voting & elections.. "

    BS.

    It's not that people can't change things.. it's just that it's exceptionally difficult to do so. History stands as a great example of that in almost every 'revolution.' While I'm not advocating violence, however in almost all cases in history of 'revolution' and 'change', unless heads role, not much changes.

    Voting for a Republicrat is a futile activity. Talking about change without talking about changing the foundations of problems is also futile.

    The ruling class loves having the common citizenry fighting amongst themselves over silly issues like healthcare, fiscal responsibility, race, welfare, etc... all while they rob, enslave, and do whatever they want. The last two years should have taught the US populace this, not to mention the last 200yrs, with the blatant failure of the government to represent the people in almost all matters, or even abide by its own laws.

    *end semi-thought-out rant*
  • Actually I think he's talking about pitch forks and muskets - my kind of guy. Totally agree with you - this country needs to break out of the dual party system.
  • texpresso
    we do not have a dual party system when the dopes on the coasts elect liberal republicans who are zero different than democrats. elect some conservatives instead of republicans and you will see some change-- that will last until the economy is good again, wash, rinse, repeat

    it may take some pitchforks to get some real conservatives elected, i will agree to that
  • roscoe_casita
    Dematocrons or Republocrats, Two sides of the same coin.
  • Tronacate
    I suppose you'd like a Palin-Beck ticket?
  • Tronacate
    Too bad conservative seems to = warmongers. Reagan is a good example with the Iran -Contra escapade.

    Ron Paul would be a good true conservative imo
  • Tronacate
    Damn straight........fire axes in the offices of GS would be a good start
  • john_matrix
    great post mole! the market is really moving slowly, dont have enough knowledge to say whether this is good for the bulls or bears
  • fuw
    Mole, I like your run-through of the retracementlevels odds calculator. Haven't tried it myself so far.

    I'm also looking for ~77 in the dollar before re-evaluating, but that is only based on trendlines and resistance levels.
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