Living Inside a Broken Clock: Monday, Dec. 21, 2009.

by gmak

Season’s Greetings. Did you know that some of the glaciers in the last ice age did not come down from the north pole, but began in the middle of continental Americas? As I finish writing this post, the USD has retraced its way back down to what was a level of support on Friday. Watch out for DXY = 77.60 – 77.70; if this gives way, then GS will rue getting stopped out of their USD shorts. A new year beckons. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.

EQUITY

The volume on Friday for SPX was more than double the average. Is this a misprint? ES volume was typical and betwen 1.5 and 2 million. In any case, OPEX did not disappoint with its tiny battles centered around myriad “pins” and the VWAP. ‘Ware the holidays, is all that I can think of to say. SPX is floating between resistance and support – and with anticipated diminishing volumes into year end, it could go either way.

Asia was mixed with Japan and China green, and other markets red to varying degrees. Europe is green.

Germany is hugging the upper end of the last month. Almost everything in the DAX is green – and it’s not even a data day.

USD is weaker. CAD, JPY, and EUR are stronger. GBP is weaker. Looking at the EUR chart, it sure looks like consolidation into a bearish flag, no? The DXY chart however looks ominous and seems to indicate a weaker USD. However, into calendar year end, a lot of non-traders, non-speculators square up positions (read exporters from many countries). It is hard to read anything into this action for implications for the next month or two.

Here are UBS’s reasons for a weaker EUR:

Fed will raise rates before ECB next year
U.S. investors are heavily exposed to foreign markets and will repatriate funds back into dollar
Euro to be hurt by renewed risk aversion as central banks around the world tighten monetary poicy
Euro zone sentiment will be damaged by the fiscal troubles of its weakest members
Foreign central bank reserve managers haven’t been buying euro on dips recently
Sentiment remains euro bullish, so it’s vulnerable to a surprise
EUR/USD remains above its fair value of 1.20/1.25

NEWS

DATA

No matter how much I poke at the TA entrails, I see nothing. Patience is the word, once again. Patience, and nimbly darting between the rain drops to scalp or pick up a few ES points here and there. This is a time for contemplation, regeneration, and renewal.

EDIT: 8:19 AM EST

ES has not broken its long term trend line from July. The dashed violet line at the top of the latest wedge is at 1109.75. Bulls will cheer if ES closes above that. ES Pivots:

R2: 1110.50 = Above the magical bull line at 1109.75. This is where any bullish tide could be turned.
R1: 1104.25 = Resistance for ES right now. It is a new local high.
Neutral: 1096 = This has been support and pulled ES back up when breached over the last few days
S1: 1090 = support levl from Thursday and Friday.
S2: 1082 = ES equivalent of SPX = 1086 which is the dashed green line (more or less) on the SPX daily chart.

Cheers.

This entry was posted on Monday, December 21st, 2009 at 8:31 am and is filed under Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

molecool

¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸
hindyomen

no upside push followthru for the
NHT@813 on the 2:10 bar (right shoulder)
feels funny...
sold 1110.75s for scalp
Anna

Another trade Scaling into GLD calls @ 107 and 105
molecool

yeah, looks decent.
chaugner

got to tell you guys ... I am really unsure about EURUSD/Dollar at the moment. Generally I always have some type of plan or view on something I trade very frequently but I am honestly stumped here.

I was long since Friday on EURUSD and just got stopped out break even (which is ok) but I have to admit - this has me puzzled a bit more then usual.

The only positive thing about EURUSD is the ability to get away unharmed if a trade goes against you ... but still, have not been able to profit from the HUGE down move from the 1.51 area which has me frustrated and is probably the reason why I am trying to chase something that may not exist.

The next problem I see is that if 1.43 does not hold (which it seems to be setting up for) that we have quite a large 3 months cluster of support ranges making it difficult to pick your proper entry. First one at 1.42 ranging all the way to 1.40 (sucker better bounce there) and of course the big one at 1.38.

Okay enough mm and emotions ... out of FX trades at the moment and only have equities that is a bit bullish now since I had been stopped out quite a few shorts.
Nightwind

The worst thing that can happen to a trapped USD bear is a correction in time vs price
gmak

Look at where the EUR is. CAD is weakening bit by bit. DXY is on the plus side. The only fly in the ointment is that, somehow, SPX is above that white horizontal line in the daily chart. TNX is up 1.21 - which is 12 bps on the 10 year yield, and is a considerable amount for a single day change with no crises brewing.

Gold is seeing the '10' handle again. Is this because of a) no inflation; b) no crisis; c) manipulation (uh-oh. that's like a red flag to the gold bulls). no offense intended. :-)
bubble jeopardy

a. yes
b. crisis is everyone that has shorted the dollar will have to cover, debts have to be repaid in dollars and there aren't enough to go around and
c. your guess is as good as mine
Anna

oh yea and BIDU great short too :)
Anna

Hello Mole=sters
Hope you all have a merry Christmas and Happy Holiday! also hope you grabbed that Visa short I told you about Friday! :)
Also RIMM is a sweet short right now...oxoxo
bergs

Hi Annamall

Wishing you the best of holidays
Anna

Hi Bergs you too sweetie, where is Mole today?
bergs

mole has a ton of irons in the fire. I hope he slows down a little for the Holidays.

His wife would probably like to see him smile for Xmas.

Going to grab some of them there V's(puts). Hopefully at the top of this next subminuette in the $SPX.
subminuette four (red) probably has more to run down but Ill throw this chart at ya anyway.

http://screencast.com/t/NmM4YzU4

Then it is off to shop til I drop. I have put it off long enough, guy thing you know.

We have snow coming in late this afternoon and the a big system starting Tuesday through Saturday. Could be sleet etc. We have already had a nine inch dump last week,Ugh, welcome to Iowa
Anna

Well please do enjoy your holiday, and let's pray for a more normal market next year!
molecool

I'm slowings things down this week - need a break and it's time to forget about the tape and enjoy the holiday season. Might do a quick post today but it'll be sporadic until next year.
Anna

Enjoy your Christmas (we celebrate on Christmas eve) and have fun !!! I am spending it with my German family on Christmas Eve this year, they know how to eat too! :)
chaugner

German family??? so you, mole (and me hah) are of german origin? lol
Anna

Hi Chaug, I am 1/2 Sicilian and 1/2 German :)
chaugner

that sounds like trouble hah
Anna

A fairly wild temperment :)))
Nightwind

spx has crossed over the upper BB on the daily
hindyomen

what's the playbook?
Nightwind

I'm not playing the financials, but I do look at them
Nightwind

I'm looking to short RUT in the 619-620 area. Then await for the bank to foreclose on me..Funny, the spx is also forming a H&S on the 5 min too
elliott_surfs

/ES looks like an inverse H&S (start weds) that just completed. Intraday for the h&s on SPX?
Nightwind

Speaking on today only.
elliott_surfs

Nice. Rooting for that right shoulder then ;)
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

See you all tomorrow, cub take over ;-)

but no bitting
goldpackers

Had to buy SRS and more ANF puts
Centrifugal_Deforest

I have a second now, so I'll try to define my reasoning on AMZN for a swing-long here...

-Rotation into big cap growth today (AAPL, GS< AMZN, etc)
_Rising vol-pace in AMZN, following friday's rising vol reversal/pivot
-Yr end winners tend to do well right to yr end, historically (that could backfire this yr; warning - no guarantee on this one)
-AMZN industry group is leading in terms of RS
-Vol move back above 10-day MA (a nice trading ave)
-10-day is my bench now for loss (exit if close below 10-day from now to yr end)
-Risk then is relatively minor (assuming no hell-gap lower) and run towards highs is a better reward vs. that risk
-Nice hedge against shorts right now, IMO (especially against amzn shorts ;)
Nightwind

CD, would leveraged ETFs be cheaper for hedging (less $$ more inverse movement)?
Centrifugal_Deforest

I'm not hedging , actually; quite long here at moment.

But to your point, the 2x's of NDX and R2k or SPX are fine, but never never would i hold 3x's when they are ttrending lower. I don't like SRS of SKF when those are trending lower either (all due to the bleed, relative to the index they mirror, when they are dropping)
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

with that ma10 limit I tend to agree
bubble jeopardy

Since metal stocks peaked at the beginning of this month they have continued lower. Even today, while the market is up, metal stocks are declining. Is this another example of a sector that has rolled over and fallen off?
http://www.screencast.com/t/YTQ2MTRiZj
Nightwind

A lot of retail investors are off this week for the holidays. I wonder how many are home right now going long?
gmak

Here is the Global Warming link in a different place (several of them).

http://blog.timesunion.com/largefamilylife/hundreds-protest-global-warming/943/
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/pictures/view/80818468/
http://danforthgreens.ca/hundreds-gather-to-protest-global-warming/snowmen-protesting-climate-change/

On a trading-related note: Is anyone keeping an eye on TNX? The 10 year rate keeps climbing The steepness of the yield curve is increasing. Banks aren't lending, so who is benefiting? At some point, the higher interest rates show up in the lower P/E ratios that are appropriate for discounting, say, SPX future cash flows = valuations fall = prices fall.

Jan 14, 2010 - the remaining $75 bb in TAF money matures.
March 2010 - the MBS program expires.

There's a bunch of Tbills being auctioned this week. On the 23rd (WEDnesday) - therea re $118 bb being auctioned in various belly maturities (2 - 7 year) On January 7th, there is an additional $74 bb in longer term maturities being auctioned. The stresses and strains are showing up in the Yield curve.

It is happening..... again. (Yes the market reminds me of twin peaks. Double top. get it).
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

more like the late episodes or even crazier films by david lynch
Centrifugal_Deforest

VIX down another 5% - no one wanting to trade long this environment?
Cypherd

I like the chart for WFC, long some puts, mental stop if it gets over the last lower high at $28.38
mthomas1818

has anyone seen Doug Kass's prediction on gold? he makes a very bold and interesting prediction about both gold and John Paulson's gold fund. check it out: http://www.goldalert.com/gold-price-blog.php
gsavli

There was our crash now :)
Centrifugal_Deforest

AMZN looks like a good trade long to me; right here (132.35-ish)
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

a trade or a gamble? it broke the ma13 but the upper bollinger reppelled it.

and the BBs are compressed to hell

and only lower highs in 2 weeks...
Centrifugal_Deforest

I see something different
...and i'm looking at the rotation in the mkt today, which is into larger cap growth such as amzn
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

You may be absolutly right, the last jump was also anomalous, i wouldn't shortamzn either, just said "too tiight, too dangerous"
Centrifugal_Deforest

...swing trade idea; sell by last day of yr if it is working
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

Berg, how do you count those prety steps on s&p?
amokta

vix dangerously low - at this rate will be zero soon?
raised_by_wolves

These are the next support zones I have for $VIX:

http://screencast.com/t/ZWNjOWFk
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

New Vix, half the fear, double the pain

brought to you by our good friend in the banking system
amokta

cheers, lets see what elliottwave stu have to say today - they had regained their composure, but with markets back up again, lets see if they bring out the moon-analysis again.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

keep us informed thanks
gmak

A little bit of humour. Hundreds gather to protest Global Warming.

http://www.thealders.net/blogs/2009/12/20/hundreds-gather-to-protest-global-warming/
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

First you deny the bull market
then the global war.. climate chang... climate something

next thing you'll be saying that Obama is not the messiah announced by Gore the baptist
Me_XMan

Are they nuts? I need global warming now.
gmak

You didn't click the link, did you? :-)

________________________________
raised_by_wolves

gmak, the link didn't work!

Although I can't see it, I can imagine that snow was involved.
gmak

It's hundreds of snow men.
texpresso

LMAO. where do you guys find this stuff...
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

nuts? did you mention nuts?
Nightwind

LOL....good one ....5 Stars *****
hindyomen

thank the lloyd the dollar continues to be higher today, otherwise SPX would have flown through the roof by now
raised_by_wolves

My last email was pretty belligerent. Maybe I should send Lloyd an apology?
hindyomen

btw, early warning to the bearish side,
unless we reverse hard to the downside today/tomorrow,

GS (read: leadership) looks poised to rocket out of its falling wedge on the dailies
with a bullish divergence under its belt
and a 180 target

http://screencast.com/t/NmEzM2I5Z
Nightwind

Xcellent point if it closes near the intraday high. A small H&S could be forrming on the 5 min. intraday.
hindyomen

correct. a HOD close would also bring GS above both its 10ma and 20ma on the dailies, implying a quick retest of the 50ma at 173
hindyomen

you have the Lloyd's email addy? o_O
raised_by_wolves

What's it worth to you? ;-)
Nightwind

We might see 1121 on spx today
bergs

OOPS mean't to post to you not the Hampster

133% of minuette (a) gives us 1124 as does 161.8% of subminuette 1 to 3.

http://screencast.com/t/ZTI1ZDVm
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

hey, it's only crazy hamster here, but I'd rather see 1112 followed by 1119 and then 1112 again
bergs

Appears we have completed subminuette (red) wave three of five up.

http://screencast.com/t/YzVjZGRjZGQt
Nightwind

Thx bergs, better than a gps
bergs

let us hope so.
Nightwind

I'll be entering the "House of Pain" on this next move up.....going 20% short
Nightwind

Or should I say "poor house"
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

certified lunatic, haven't you heard? it's a new bull market

p.s. this place is turning too much into sparta, but you're more than wellcome in the 300 stainless steel hard core rats

p.p.s. tonight we dine in hell, let's expect tomorrows breakfast is more at our taste
Nightwind

I've ate at that restaurant a couple of times
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

my on and off restaurant since july.

bit boring, the menu has but 3 or 4 dishes

5's overexcited
gap up à la go-go
Freezed crumble
Tronacate

Move on the RUSELL looked really exhaustive........very exponential.
charles_smith

If the pattern of the last month repeats (and what are the odds of that?) then we get 3 up days to kiss the upper Bollinger yet again above 10,500 DJIA. I have zero TA evidence but this smells like a reversal day to me. Maybe that is just foolish hope that a typical ramp-and-camp day would slip into "interesting"....
Bart7

Barry Ritholz is generally a pretty smart guy, but how do you get a rally to 13k Dow with a 30 to 40% rally in the dollar??
"It's clear the great recession is over!," says Barry Ritholtz, chief executive of Fusion IQ and author of the Big Picture blog. The world didn't end, as many predicted late last year and early this year, and Ritholtz thinks many will be surprised by the economy in 2010.
Not because we'll see a robust recovery, rather, because we’ll see more of the same; an economy characterized by weak employment, weak housing and the continuation of what he describes as a mild recession.
As for investing in the new year, Ritholtz reminds viewers to expect the unexpected.
He's betting on a rebound for the dollar. "No one is expecting a rally in the dollar," he proclaims, and that's exactly why he "wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar rally 30-40% from here."
A stronger dollar will be a headwind for stocks and "terrible for oil, terrible for gold," he says. Ritholtz predicts gold will pull back "20-30%" next year. Unlike many of the gold bugs, he doesn't think "the world is ending" and doesn't predict any social panic that would lead to a spike in gold prices.
Shaka_Zulu

@Bart7

Did Ritholtz call for Dow 13k? I haven't read TBP since he pussed out on the invite to Congress.
gmak

If the rally in the USD is due to strong economic fundamentals and not to withdrawal of liquidity from the financial system.
Schwerepunkt

I would't say "strong" economic fundamentals. Maybe better "relative fundamentals." US will recover more quickly than Europe, but it will still be a slow march back and the economy may never fully recover. But currencies only care about relative performance and interest rates.
gmak

Sorry. I should have been clearer. I was answering the question from your first post of :",,,but how do you get a rally to 13k Dow with a 30 to 40% rally in the dollar??"

I was saying that it could be done if the strength in the dollar came from strong economic fundamentals and not from the withdrawal of liquidity.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

given the pristine state of the us economy that rally needs gold close to 1.500
CorporalCarrot

Chaps, thanks for comments below.

I shorted spx on the spreadbet at 1116.3 and its been tidy so far. Moving stops in now to 1115.5 and will trail down as appropriate.

Cheers.
roscoe_casita

Good morning rats!

Well the good news is VIX gap has been closed, the bad news is the VIX gap is closed, so it can go anywhere now >.<
tradejane

Today's close might be important for DUG and SKF.

http://www.screencast.com/t/MDZkNGQ2N

http://www.screencast.com/t/NjQ3ODA4MD

Some primitive observations about the stocks listed here:

http://tinyurl.com/yc9ggn5

ORCL and AMD still look good. The first could benefit from a retrace as long as it doesn't go below 23.40 and AMD should be ok as long as it stays above 9. There's some good support at 8 too.

FDX still acting like a good short even though one would think the cold weather would be of benefit to them.

HOG chart looks bad too but there is so much short interest I wouldn't be surprised if it went to 27 before resuming a downtrend.

CAAS became a definite short when it broke 19 on Friday. Should find support at the 16 area.

UNG needs to remain above 10.25.
tom5sk

mt4 gives fairly reliable charts formost things
raised_by_wolves

SPX:GLD, represented by my cyan line, is at the 78.6% fib line. I'm waiting for SPX:GLD to form a peak here or else bust through going higher.

http://screencast.com/t/OGNjNjYyOTgt
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

Hi raised, the gold shorts still doing their thing so don't eclude a september 2008 replay i.e. double top at w2 of 5 down
raised_by_wolves

I feel bad deleting your double post. It's as if I ate you Hamster and am now feeling sorry about it.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

I double posted? woops, disqus issue

And you couldn't eat an hamster, not a stainless steel one, a gerbil at most (and only if properly shaved... first gerbil jjoke of the week?)
Gold_Gerb

and last.
kiss my arse.
;-)
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

Hey, you disapeared?

No more gerbil jokes, I promise, come back!
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

I see at least 3 issues before considering that

1. is that a properly porportioned female gerbil one?
2. how far it is?
3. will mrs. hamster allow?

life has these small things

LOL

p.s.no offense meant, just joking
raised_by_wolves

or bite it.
;-)
raised_by_wolves

When I said "ate," I was censoring myself in case other children (counting myself as one) were reading. The original imagery was vivid and grotesque, actually.

Now you have me salivating for Gerbil. For an appetizer, I could nibble at his tail. . . .
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

bad cub| Go eat your carrots... (NO! not corporal carrot!)
raised_by_wolves

What I had in mind was buying some short-term calls on one of the indices if $SPX:GLD goes above the fib line. I'm also waiting for $RUT to go above its September high. Does that make sense?
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

another thing, that reverse fib.... I wouldn't trust it, try doing retracements from the august high (considering 1 2 i ii iii, currently iv) or from the september high (failled 5th of c) considering i-ii-iii-iv-v-- currently 2

what do you think?
raised_by_wolves

Here's a retracement from the August high. I would say you're right; I shouldn't trust any down move unless perhaps the magenta 50% fib line breaks too. But that's likely to act as support:

http://screencast.com/t/YzdmY2QwO
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

bah, the more I look the less I can leave that count of 1-2-3-4

give me a retracement from the september high
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

not really, you have some longs identified by mole that I approved with the roddent bands, some calls on any of them will probably outperform the market.
raised_by_wolves

Okay, replace short-term calls on one of the indices with short-term calls on one of Mole's precious picks certified with the rodent seal of approval. Does that make sense if $SPX:GLD goes above the red 78.6% fib line and $RUT goes above it's September high? That makes sense to this wolf.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

and as for the calls, the stocks have already moved, re-check (try those that i said not yet, but through the hamster gerbil bands to see whete it might lead)
raised_by_wolves

Forget the hedging vehicle for now or just assume it'll be SPX. I'm not looking for the next best trade. The question I'm asking myself is "When do I need to put on a hedge?"

Here in no man's land, I don't want a hedge because it's going to burn in theta hell.

One of my conditions would be if $RUT busts a move above 630. If it does that, I can place a tight stop and set a target for 660.

Another condition would be if $COMPQ breaks out above the purple channel line I have drawn. The target would be the aqua fib fan line.

What I'm asking about is there any sense having a gold ratio condition? Maybe not for triggering the hedge. Maybe for deciding the next question of what the hedge should be.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

maybe above 1.02
raised_by_wolves

gotcha, that's above the 104 mid band

http://screencast.com/t/NjEzNzI5N
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

with some margin, yes ... smart cub
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

see the retrace from the september failed high to bottom. you might see it's a dandy zone for a wave 2 to end...
raised_by_wolves

Wait, I'm getting confused now. Tell me again what period you think end of August/beginning of September 2009 through our potential future double top corresponds to?
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

there are 2 scenarios, in one of them we're in the summer of 2007, in the other t's september 2008 (yes, I know we didn't have any nominal drop to mention, but that is an option)
raised_by_wolves

Thank you for the clarification. I was getting confused because I was conflating the two scenarios. Blame the ADHD for the random error.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

hey, i do it all the time, I keep coming up with paralelisms and keeping track of all of them, and what belongs to each of them, becomes... troublesome
raised_by_wolves

Or blame it on the alcohol.
bergs

133% of minuette (a) gives us 1124 as does 161.8% of subminuette 1 to 3.

http://screencast.com/t/ZTI1ZDVm
gmak

So, you think it will either go up or go down from here. :-)
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

judicious comment from RBW
raised_by_wolves

Watch, it goes flat line :-)
chaugner

Anyone else having problems with disqus? posts keep on disappearing ...
raised_by_wolves

Disappearing DISQUS comments? Usually a glitch in the Matrix. It happens when they change something ;-)
Nightwind

The Naz looks like it's in 3 of C on the hourly with the obvious point of recognition. If the EW'ers disagree, please set me straight.
gmak

FWIW: SPX is bumping against the horizontal white line on the SPX daily chart in the post above - which has defined resistance since the beginning of November. Playing the odds would suggest going short here, with a stop above the high from Dec 16 at SPX=1116ish. That is if you believe that this white line will continue to define resistance for SPX daily.

SPX is above the R2 pivot at 1110.03. It has climbed up to the R2 pivot from Friday at 1113ish.
Me_XMan

Don't short SPX yet...wait to see 1116.
gmak

Actually, now that we have a bit of data past the noise from open, TD is suggesting that a reversal will take place around 1117.55 on the SPX. SO your suggestion of a stop at 1119ish should be about right - if one believes that the white line will hold AGAIN. See Chaugner's comment for another perspective based on what is happening in his/her account.

Of course, SPX is starting to look like a Ramp and Camp day. I still favour the odds of going short here with a tight stop. Your suggestion of 1116 is more conservative and will limit damage better if the trade is wrong. Good one!
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

it's been what? a week since I said 113 likely, scared if 1119?

5th gap up and meth teeth are de rigueur ...

christ, you better get out of virgin mary and straighten this helish market.
gmak

Why 1116? i.e in a TA sense.
gmak

And then what would you base your stop on? The high from Dec 4th of 1119ish?
Me_XMan

That's about right. Stop at 1119.
gmak

Do you have a chart with some TA?
vasiltrade

future?
chaugner

I have quite a few open positions - 100% neutral (50% capital bearish and 50% bullish). Stops on shorts are above pivots indicating a breakout. So far 25% of shorts been stopped out. If this is any sign of things to come I would "gamble" on SPX following and breaking said resistance line.

EURUSD in my opinion is forming a base and the break below 1.43 has a very high potential of being the low (remember the chart from friday http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_hE3pp93emY0/SyvovbtSXCI/AAAAAAAAAYs/RXTqZopvgiA/s1600-h/eurusdlong.GIF).

I think very carefully short term bullish is the way to play this ....
gmak

I've got TD support at 1.43 and resistance at 1.4370 on the 3 min chart. Guess those are the interim lines in the sand. Either one could presage a direction, as you've indicated.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

euro retook 1.43?!
gmak

I've got the low for today at around 1.4311ish. 1.43 is what EUR has to get below for the downward trend to resume.

________________________________
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

I had hoped that the 1.429 of friday had anounced the drop... retaking 1.43 places us, again, on no-man's land
Schwerepunkt

Nice simple chart. If that line breaks, we could have a cascade in the Euro. All it would take is a PIGS-slaughter, or a Dubai Doh!
chaugner

hmm my reply disappeared lol
Schwerepunkt

then again, if that line holds, we get another leg up to at least 1.45-47 and equities break the recent highs above 1120. Edit: a full retrace back up to 1.51 and every bear will be dead.
Schwerepunkt

Euro/ES again out of step with each other. There is a story there, but I haven't figured it out yet. Seems equities could trend higher while Euro goes down, but occasionally they will be in-step, and sometimes not. Very confusing. I suppose decoupling is a process, but is it Euro specific or not? If not, then some of the currencies levered to commodities (Aussie, NZ, CAD, NOK) would be better short candidates.
Nightwind

RUT is a beast.
gsavli

hunger for stocks... they are cheap today.
goldpackers

HELP! Where can you find the best hourly and daily spx charts at no charge?
Nightwind

You might consider freestockcharts.com or bigcharts. Sidenote: If 1119 is taken out on spx, would you consider us in a W3 up of C? Thx
goldpackers

Thanks. I have used big charts and my brokerage charts
goldpackers

Yes and probably 2 hour closes above 1111. Also the chance of a 1.618 move out of triangle if the bulls really get their hormones up. Hard to see above 1142 as weak as the tape is. I have a turn today and believe today's close sets the tone for the week. next turn 11-24/28
Schwerepunkt

Greetings one and all. I slept in a bit, but I'm glad to see gmak still on his horse! Thanks again. Your posts let me know what I need to know in about two minutes.

BTW, quad-witching probably explains Friday's volume. As such, it was a whole lot of paper shuffling and so not that indicative of underlying structure. CC is probably also correct about this being an in-between period, but you never know. The Grinch could still make a nasty appearance and spoil the holy interregnum.

Living Inside a Broken Clock: Monday, Dec. 21, 2009.

feed

twitter

spx zero

poll

recent misdeeds

categories

archives

swag outlet!

search site