Living Inside a Broken Clock: Monday, Dec. 28, 2009.

by gmak

The year is coming to an end but there is no relief in sight. Market Ticker tells us that there are even more games being played with treasuries than one could imagine. Zero Hege tells us that they are trying to auction off another $118 billion. The 10 year yield continues to creep up. Everyone seems to want the CAD in their stocking. One percent of the population are psychopaths and there are 400 million Muslims in the world. How long are Westerners going to be required to tip toe around the feelings of others while they spit in our faces, abuse our social security systems and disrupt the classrooms where our children are trying to prepare themselves for life. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.

EQUITY

The world is green, except for some smaller western European countries, and the Middle East. The DAX is holding its most recent lofty level. Looking at the daily chart for SPX, one can clearly see that my note about “This worries me” was correct as the index has marched up on volume so small it should be stated in metric. Looks like SPX will test the trend line “Since Oct 21″ before year end. The dashed horizontal purple line in a TD risk measure that suggets a “make or break” point – meaning SPX will either be turned back decisively, or go on to bring cheer to the bulls and despair to the bears. The magic number there is 1133.90.

ES used the pivot at 1119.75 to launch itself up 5 points or so. I don’t think that anyone should trade this tape. ES Pivots

R2: 1127.50 = Probably one of the stops as SPX bullies its way to the TD dashed purple risk level above.
R1: 1124.75 = ES already put a pin through this at midnight ( how fitting – insert your favourite heavy metal tune here). ES is camped at these levels as I type – so ES is waiting for something.
Neutral: 1119.75 = source of the floor for today.
S1: 1117 = On these low volumes? It would surprise me.
S2: 1112 = Maybe in the New Year……

USD has been pushed back down to support at 77.50ish. If it breaches 77.40, IMHO, then we are likely to revisit the low 76’s.

CAD is on fire. My guess is end of year buying to square accounts for goods and services. Certainly JPY, EUR, and GBP are tepid in their relative movements. EUR i9s having a hard time getting over 1.4402 – which is the middle (neutral) pivot.

I’m not trading before the new year. I don’t know anyone directly who is. I listened to my brother-in-law tell me horror stories of the lazy, system-milking scum (there is no other word for it) that work as technicians in our medical system (putting lives at risk), only in those jobs because of “Fairness” and lowered English language standards. I’m no longer feeling very tolerant and charitable. Welcome to the broken clock.

This entry was posted on Monday, December 28th, 2009 at 10:02 am and is filed under Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

gmak

Heisenbergs principle applies to markets in a similar fashion to fundamental particles.
http://evilspeculator.com/?p=13866#disqus_thread
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dollar

Tuesday's economic calendar:
7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
1:00 PM Results of $42B, 5-Year Note Auction
5:00 PM ABC Consumer Confidence Index
CorporalCarrot

RBW

The only thing bears have wrong is timing, but that is sometimes the most critical component of a trade. Being right before your time can be as expensive as being wrong.

What I think most outright bears have resolutely failed to recognise this year is the potential power of a countertrend rally, and the amount of time it can be sustained. The thing that makes this one more powerful than virtually any rally in history is the weight of government intervention behind it, not just in the US but across the world.

At some stage there has to be a reckoning for all the money printing, and the losses that have been sustained. We know the banks are lying about their losses, and theres more than a trillion sitting off balance sheet waiting to materialise.

But theres nothing to say this has to be realised now. Or in the next 6 months. Or because we have reached a 50% retracement of the decline.

The sad facts of the matter are that despite being right, the ones with egg on their faces are the bears, and any muppet who just hopped on the trend and stayed there has enjoyed one of the best years of their investing career.

Thus far, nothing has changed in the trend. IMO people who argue about whether this is a true bull market or a bear market rally are completely missing the point. The trend is up, this is a bull market, and you don't get volume printed on your brokerage statement as a consolation for being wrong or right before your time.
labdude

A link to what Marc Faber has to say--" Now, Biggs, 77, and Faber, 63, see gains as the economic recovery accelerates and investors shift money from Treasuries."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...

My puts will probably make me into a putz.

EDIT: wish I had payed attention to Dr. Faber more--I gave more credence to others (Schiff, and others) who thought the market would drop further or would not rise as far as it has--you are correct, timing is everything.
molecool

So right - Prechter and Hochberg keep saying 'any day now' for four months now.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day - in the meantime you're going to miss a lot of trains.
SodaBoy

spot on... exactly right...
raised_by_wolves

Well thought and said. Too tired to respond. Need my 1.5 hours beauty sleep.
gsavli

ditto.
CorporalCarrot

As I've posted recently, I was on the other side of this in 2004. I remember January 2005 being extremely painful for me. I held certain stocks which had great runs (and were fundamentally good companies etc) in 04 which got absolutely hosed in the first few days of 05. I couldn't understand it. I didn't have the appreciation of the importance of the market back then........I thought if I bought good companies at good prices I would be fine. I gave back a huge amount of profits then.

I'm therefore curious to see what happens on Monday. Full volume should resume. The question is how pent up selling demand (due to CGT reasons etc) interacts with sectoral rotation and asset allocation decisions for the new year.
AudioTactics

Can you expand on why there would be pent up selling for capital gains tax reasons?

thx in advance.
gmak

Those who want to lock in profits without some form of hedge, would only sell in the new year so that the tax consequences are deferred to the 2010 filing in 2011.
AudioTactics

thanks for your response...

I guess my real question is what is the advantage of taking gains in 2010? It's likely that capital gains taxes are more likely to rise than fall so I'm just not sure I understand why investors would wait to sell longs in 2010.
CorporalCarrot

Folks while everyone is idle, could we do a poll of what people think about the current "breakout" by most major markets?

Is it for real or just a headfake based on what traders are actually bothering to show up taking advantage of extremely light holiday volumes? I read somewhere that the first move out of the coiled spring pattern we have had on the spx is usually the wrong one. I wonder if that move is exacerbated by when it is happening?
tradejane

Well, if you consider this movement from a logical point of view it's a headfake. But the market rarely does the logical thing.

Another thing to consider is what Michael D. mentioned some days ago:

http://evilspeculator.com/?p=13746

If they are promoting a correction "beginning early January" this practically guarantees that any shorts, placed from the moment of that announcement, will get "screwed, blued and tattooed."

PS. Look at the Euro for example, which bottomed about a day after M.D's post.
CorporalCarrot

I hear this and am very conscious of it. I don't think however that this particular "announcement" has been as publicly talked about as the famous head and shoulders that was talked about back in July. That was a ridiculously overhyped pattern formation.

And while its definitely worth bearing MSM commentators in mind, you can't put too much stock in them. Contrarian investment decisions based on factors like that rarely hold up well statistically.

All I'm saying is, I have a sense of deja-vu here; what we don't have at the moment is true price discovery, we have computers running automated buy programs based on gunning futures on feather light volume. Monday 4th - Wednesday 7th will tell us whats going on here. If a proper market with a full participant count can support the prices being asked here in this holiday period, then look out above.
tradejane

>And while its definitely worth bearing MSM commentators in mind, you can't put too much stock in them

Agreed. In fact, I don't put much stock in anything these days and when I do I don't care as much, since I always place my stop as soon as the order is filled, a stop that is predetermined before I even pick out an entry.

Looking forward to see what gmak has to say about the yields today. Personally, I think they will be defended at some point.
Rightside_ot_trade

Agree with all of your comments. Definitely a predetermined stop is the only way to trade the markets.
Seems the 10 year (ZN) should be defended in the 115'0 range, near the August closing low. But weekly and monthly charts look bearish
tradejane

>a predetermined stop is the only way to trade the markets.

I'm glad you think so. It was an expensive lesson.

Well, whatever they plan to do with those yields it better be good. While a rise can be a bullish signal for equities an accelerated rise is not. Plus it messes with their mortgage market. Green shoots will not like that.
gsavli

Headfake.

Reasons: low, diminishing volume, markets and bullish feeling are pumped in "unnatural" way, via futures by night and gap ups. FED and its biotchez are probably the most important buyers - buying with taxpayers' cash (when that ends, then what?). Market expectations are high (take a look at AMZN's P/E for example). Bussiness is getting bettter with cost and job cuts, not with growth.
raised_by_wolves

Assuming you're right, the question then would be what is the magnitude of the head fake in price and time? Is this a 10-points-in-two-days head fake or a 40-points-in-a-week head fake?
gsavli

Well, might be, this is one giant head fake of a few hundred points (ie bear market rally) and a smaller one of few 10 points, will see. but this later, most definitely.
raised_by_wolves

Head fake versus real breakout is exactly what I'm trying to figure out. After that, it's a matter of figuring out how to take advantage of whichever it is.
gsavli

I guess, with true breakout, volume has to increase. And hmmm, this "breakthrough" was achieved with low volume automated futures buying, resulting in gap ups day by day. Done with your money, dear US citizens.
raised_by_wolves

I see this tape as a narrative within a narrative carrying the same themes as the narrative that is the rally. Technically, we don't know how it ends even though we feel pretty damn confident that we do know how it will end.
gsavli

True, true. But eventually, fundamentals come up, history teaches us.
raised_by_wolves

Yes, agreed, so it comes back to this matter of timing.

How are you going to play this?

I'm looking to settle on some criteria for a conditional order to buy short term puts when those conditions are met. I don't want to jump the gun.
gsavli

expectancy policy also. Maybe jump into shorts on an imminent pullback, but looking to get out as soon as things go sour.
gsavli

Talking of that. They are doing it right now, it took them 5 mins to make ground for a new gap up and 0.5% higher start today. With no volume. Now, that's what I call cost-effectiveness.
raised_by_wolves

They can get it up cost-effectively. Can they keep it up cost-effectively?
gsavli

nope, not even non-cost-effectively.
steveo77

But that won't stop them from trying....
tradejane

Shorting the DAX ahead of the numbers in 4 minutes, Lebwohl. Heh
CorporalCarrot

What happened?
tradejane

Nothing. This thing is asleep. Virtually unchanged since yesterday.

Btw, construction sector is up today but bank sector is weak.
raised_by_wolves

A snapshot of the evening, er early morning:
http://screencast.com/t/MjkxYWJjY

I'm going to get a few hours shut eye and see where the tape is at market open.
SodaBoy

gmak i sincerely hope you weren't serious with your religious rant in the first paragraph.

i hope you use a bit more insight and thought process in your market analysis - and are not as superficial as with your socio-economic beliefs.

leave religion and your personal opinion at home... this is not the right place.
raised_by_wolves

That first paragraph incited a lot of heated discussion last trading session that was usually interesting and occasionally insightful to me personally (I like hearing perspectives from any side, whether subtle, strong, or stubborn because I like to observe what people are really thinking—for instance, we learned that Gmak feels threatened—which is useful information—whether I agree, disagree in part, disagree in full, or have no opinion—though I have to keep in mind that even when I'm playing the observer role that doesn't make me an objective one) but also distracting to all of us. You won't have a chance to read that discussion since most of the comments were removed. Gmak hasn't revised what he wrote but has said he wouldn't talk politics in his future "Living Inside a Broken Clock" posts. Now that you've had an opportunity to comment on it, let's move on to trading as you yourself suggested.

What do you think the probability is that the markets will sell off in January versus breakout to the upside?
SodaBoy

sorry for bringing it up - i didn't realise it was discussed/removed --- moving on...

to tell you the truth - i absolutely have no clue as to what could hapen in january. from the experience of the past year, i've learnt that "better late than dead" seems the most logical approach.

everyone says don't chase the tape... yet in retrospect - this would have been the best option in 2009. with tight stops and late entry - i would at least be in the plus...
Darkthirty

Not sure if they'll sell after the new year for tax reasons, does look rather anemic
steveo77

Is it OK to just mercy kill this tape?
tradejane

Indexes are not much fun lately but the action in some individual stocks is ok.
steveo77

http://screencast.com/t/MjA3YjA0ZDgt

ES nighttrade, again....bouncing against the 50 Fib
Darkthirty

USD at 77.40, ES / PMs didn't move. What's with that?
steveo77

http://screencast.com/t/M2U3NzIyY

classic bear flag on DX....just saying. It has had hella run
Darkthirty

looks like c of 2 to me, 77.20. Dax isn't doing much either....
steveo77

Ever watch this S&P 400 emini?

never saw it before tonight....more bear flag....

http://screencast.com/t/NzlkZTZkYzU
Darkthirty

Was tempted to stay out till 2010 but got short this morning. Can't do much but scalp options in this market.
steveo77

What kind? How is the liquidity, aka spread on that?
steveo77

Broken clock? :-)
I have no answers yet.
roscoe_casita

Did my post get deleted? how can I tell?
steveo77

Hard to tell, sometimes discus is just jagged up.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

good and quiet evening rats, this is a request
raised_by_wolves

In other words, no political comments, eh?
Darkthirty

As long as any critical comments are directed at white american heterosexual males, there won't be any problem!
raised_by_wolves

I like your name. It evokes dark matter, vampire romance, and water. Have you been looking for a fitting avatar? Speaking of Avatar, have you seen the movie yet? Tomorrow after market close, I'm going to try sneaking into a theater.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

I left to see it, visualy interesting, a bit disapointing in many ways
raised_by_wolves

Personally, I didn't mind the political comments from last trading session (I like a burly verbal brawl but understand how that can be a real turn off for others; I would still wager that worse outcomes for humanity are more probable than better ones), but my personal preferences don't matter in this case because . . .

(1), political commentary isn't what Mole intended for this blog, and

(2) it distracted people from posting market analysis and charts, which is Evil Speculator's raison d'être.
steveo77

In that case we might just have to kick it up a notch!
AudioTactics

I'm very short as well...
poopsquad

Hello all, Long-time zero subscriber and lurker here. Don't mean to return in the midst of all-out sh-tstorm, but I have been doing a bit more secluded trading for the past 4-5 months after a pretty rough go of it all summer long..

Anyone have any market related thoughts here ? Anyone shorting here ? I added shorts today and now the shortest I've been in some time. Am I crazy ? Most believe breakout is real ? Sentiment is awful extreme for me, and the market is pretty extended. Bond and credit markets slowing some slight cracks this week (and the large increase in rates past week is an equity negative). Everyone awaiting 1150 ?
raised_by_wolves

With $VIX below 20, puts are pretty cheap. It is not crazy to buy more if you think the market is going down. There is the further question though: Is it crazy to think this market is going down? Conversely, is it crazy to think this market is going up?
bananaben

As long as you are short a broad index like S&P 500 or better yet Russell 1000/2000. GS and JPM have a death squad out for anyone shorting IYR. Sure got my ass handed to me.
gregn

Just checking in, I have been on vacation visiting family in Tennessee. I have looked at tape 4 times and don't want to think about it. Looking forward to returning next year. Hope you all had a great holiday.
Nightwind

Good to hear from you. I bet it is warmer than Pennsylvania, but not by much.
PortfolioTilt

Also taking the rest of this week off, but I am not concerned about the low volume, it is always like this in the final week of the year. Indecision candles on SPX and COMPQ though, in cash and waiting for this year to close before making any new moves http://bit.ly/7n17XO
raised_by_wolves

$VIX broke below my white line:
http://screencast.com/t/ZDM0MDRiNTEt
Gold_Gerb

great, green line here we come <19.50ish by new years>
centerline

I would love to see it pop that lower BB tomorrow or Wed. Sub-19 looking like it is in the cards from here.
Gold_Gerb

wow, lookie all the comments.
i'd say we would have more comments today if certain <cough> evil topics were kept outside.

</cough>
DavidDT

only crazies trade and comment today :)
(At least I am openly Crazy :-)
shortcover

VXX may be an interesting play for a few day scalp...
bubble jeopardy

Have sat here quietly today reading the postings and get the sense we are being preached to. Perhaps I'm wrong and if so, I apologize. May we move on...
Rightside_ot_trade

Did anyone notice that Mole's SPX time and price projection for 5 & {c} hit today?
raised_by_wolves

No, without Mole here to remind us, I hadn't noticed. Want to post a chart with Mole's wave count?
Rightside_ot_trade

Sorry was looking at charts . He posted it on 12/23 , that is a better chart than i can put up.
Sleepynaptime

Saw this one on 12/22 that looks like it was hit today. Couldn't find one for the 23rd. Is this what you are referring to?

http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/2009-12-22_spx.png
WTFed

Wow. Impressive.
gsavli

Now, that is intersting. Haven't noticed that.

Mole, any comment?
centerline

FWIW, LQD continuing to drain. No major change in bond quality ratio though (LQD/TLT). Meanwhile JNK is flying high. I have to admit that I don't get it here. Massive appetite for risk?
cedieke

We can all breath again, and write some comments if we want to.
I'm short EAT/CTV/LTM/PFG/TCK/IGT/BGC

HAMSTER EDIT
vision_invisible

I'm short DRI and I'm underwater. Not liking this.
DavidDT

you "short DRI" since...?
cedieke

DRI is on my list too, it it ends, stays under 35.50, i may short also
labdude

Off-topic---but some well needed humor.
http://sendables.jibjab.com/originals/never_a_year_like_09
Gold_Gerb

XLE LOD.

EDIT: DOW INDU LOD too.
Gold_Gerb

..ever stare at an hourly stochastic the just REFUSES to crossover?
dam, now i see why people go to lunch..for the week!
hindyomen

lol.. yea exactly. i'm waiting for the bear cross on the daily stochastic. even more hazardous.. like sleep apnea
Anna

still short V
RIMM Oh yea and Mr. Softie.

chart
Trader_Steve

Hi Anna,

Been missing you! I've been busy with a lot of stuff as the adopted few I try to take care of are in Afghanistan.

Hope you had a good Christmas.

Steve
Anna

Hi Steve, Happy Holidays and a most happy New year for us all, we sure need it!

yes, but my blood family is in L.A. not in Florida :( so I spent it with friends. fun but not the same

Anna
Trader_Steve

Does Hollywood still have a big celebrity parade?

Steve
Anna

http://www.screencast.com/users/Annamall/folders/Jing/media/89361f5e-ab58-4fda-b8fe-59e0e285bc86
gmak

MSFT sure looks like a chart of ES, no? Same touch to a critical level.
Anna

yeah your right!! hi Gmak :)
gmak

Happy New Year, or other pagan festival of your choice!

I'm looking at this bearishly-challenged tape, at the war chest still available to the FED, at scary games between the FED and Treasury that seem to go deeper than anyone thought, and I don't think we're going to see the abyss in the first two months of 2010.

I'm waiting with bated breath to see what happens to the Treasury auctions this week - especially given the extraordinarily low volumes in markets. I have visions of a lot of pale faces and wide eyes sleeplessly watching banks of screens that move in slow motion. Looking for one of those "natural sun light" lamps myself. :-)

________________________________
Rightside_ot_trade

2 year auction ($44B) cover was a little light at 2.91
5's manana.
Anna

hahahah you too!

yes, a slight correction then possible to a double top @ 1300 ( just the technicals, so don't hate the messenger) then we see the abyss :)
gmak

Here's a scary thought. ON the weekly chart for SPX, the TD "turn back here" line is around 1400. BUT, SPX is in wave 2 of 5 DOWN (guess that's the mythical P2 anticipating p3 situation that EW'ers talk about).

I also see that the last Ledge (in July = Sep 2008) is around 1296 - 1313. That would make sense as somewhere that we hear a collective "phew" before a lot of dumping. I don't know where the money will come from to get the markets up to that level, though, unless the FED alphabet soup of programs gets extended. The unlimited bail out for Fannie and Freddie could just be part of that.

As you can see in the attached chart, the TD setup count is at 8 - happening this week. This means next week will be "9" and since 8 is already higher than 6 and 7 (bars), there is likely to be a 1 - 4 bar correction (based on TD methodology). The TD pressure in the bottom-most graph shows SPX weekly in overbought territory - and gong below the red line would signal a low risk SELL.

http://screencast.com/t/MmY3ZmNhNGMt
Anna

Just dropped in to say Hello and see how things are going.

Long Apple since Thursday morning
long Google
just went long ACI
raised_by_wolves

Based on the Dow Jones Industrials, the market is still range bound, and the tape is at the higher end of the range. I would almost prefer to find the perfect short, cover if the market moves higher, and then go long on a break out to the upside.
Anna

yes, we did break out above the rectangle a bit, but nothing to write home about. we hit 113 (or 112.99) and bounced right off that resistance. arrrrrrrgggggggg....need to teach you backgammon :)
raised_by_wolves

I have a parallelogram instead of a rectangle, which shows that $INDU hasn't broken out.

http://screencast.com/t/N2I0NmRkNGI

Same chart with the addition of Rodent Bands:

http://screencast.com/t/ZjFlNzBmN2Yt
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

CUB!

Just to remind you that the rodent bands are effective mostly in [whatever]:GOLD
raised_by_wolves

The problem is that I don't have the ability to chart [whatever]:gold in realtime except as a line next to the candles of the [whatever]. Stockcharts fulfills the need before open and after close on a daily timeframe. Do you get realtime and multiple timeframes with a subscription to stockcharts? Is that what you use?
Trader_Steve

I downloaded TOS and while it is not exactly user friendly, I did not deposit any money or sign anything and so far all stocks and indexes are in real-time.

Steve
raised_by_wolves

TOS, which I use, doesn't do ratio charts. Comparison charts, yes. Ratio charts, no.
Gold_Gerb

I can't either, but substitute [whatever]:$gold with [whatever]:GLD - gets you down to 15 min delay.

for the scoffers - here's a link showing the steady relationship.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD:$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p55288277115
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

yes, I do the same but AFTER doing a [whatever]:gold to check the real lines and values for previous days(and eyeball the equivalent gold from GLD)
raised_by_wolves

Thank you Gerbil!

I wouldn't have been able to see the highlighted candle without your helpful tip.

52s:
http://screencast.com/t/NGQ2YzFmM2Y

104s:
http://screencast.com/t/MzBhYmY5O

Are these charts speaking anything to you right now?
Gold_Gerb

i'm slightly bearish, so reader beware.
for me, the last 10 trading days have been jumping all over the place. (volatility & indecision)
it will take the passage of New Years, to create some direction, IMHO.
raised_by_wolves

Forgive me master for I have sinned; besides AMZN:$gold, I haven't looked at any gold ratios today; I'll get on that.
Anna

and you can reteach me how to play chess, my brother the brain plays it so well, but I don't
raised_by_wolves

You're brother probably conditioned you to lose. I'll try to reprogram you, and try to get you up to my level, which may not be high enough to beat your brother. For now anyway, let's forget about his chess playing abilities and just concentrate on improving yours.
raised_by_wolves

If this continues to be a range bound market such that the overhead resistance doesn't get taken out, now is a good time to go short for a swing trade.

http://screencast.com/t/N2I0NmRkNGI

I'm not convinced that this is a good time to short though. I'm not convinced that we're going to stay range bound. Could break out and go higher? Or is the resistance going to hold still yet once again?
hindyomen

if this puppy closes near LOD i think we'll have a great swing short signal.

look at all the beautiful features:
* today's high, ES 1126.25 is the exact 50% bear market retrace to the tick
* today 12/28/09 is a bradley turn date
* exhaustion gap up on SPX
* professional gap up (?) on VIX
* 60min MACD ES/SPX way way extreme
* potential black candle on the day
* potential key reversal
* $DJI daily completed a rising flag formation with return line touch
gmak

Here is a daily chart of DXY. Notice how it is sitting at the 77.8% FIB and just above the dashed green line which is a TD risk level.
http://screencast.com/t/ODMwM2RjZ

This line is at 77.475; We are seeing a retrace once DXY got above it. This is bullish for DXY - but of course DXY needs to bounce here, or else it will likely go down to test the pivots and risk levels near 74, in time.

THis next chart is the 30 minute DXY showing the recent rise off of the bottom. Just eyeballing it seems like there is some support around the levels of 77 - 77.6; DXY has been here before in December and done well to pull itself back up. I guess all will depend on how this week's auctions go, and the portends for FED printing to soak up excess Tbills IF (capital if) the foreign buyers do not show up (except CHINA which pretty much has to - although with the decline in the US current account they have less and less to bring to bear).

On the chart, I don't like the way we are in yellow wave 5 (TD waves which are sequential, not nested like EW) which suggests that DXY needs to go lower for the sequence to complete. If instead, DXY is in blue wave 4 (up sequence) then we could see the Phoenix rise from the ashes here.

http://screencast.com/t/MmVlNThm

Cheers.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

thank you very much Gmak

nice work by any measure ;-)
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

People thanks for the support to Gmak but let's get back to business.

STOP on politics in place in 3...2...1...
Duuuuuude

At some point, you will simply run out of buyers at this pace.

http://screencast.com/t/NzY5ODFlOTA
Trouser_Silo

The volume is shit, but you're only talking about 30 points on that last rise. And it seems bond money is flowing into equities. That could last for a while.
DavidDT

SSH (and whoever cares) - I posted SPX chart which you might find interesting
OK, back to my cave of steel till New Year
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

Thanks mad russian ;-)

And are you "playing safe" and considering this ABC from march could be only abc?
DavidDT

at least it is 4 from March lows on SPX - will keep bets small and stops tight - this market gives me headache
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

thanks, will take a look ASAP
DavidDT

Anyone seen PeeTree guy lately?
Nightwind

Morning guys,girls, wolves, bears & hamsters. Gmak, I was thinking that /dx would bounce around 76.85...77.25 range which would put it in the 61.8 Fib neighborhood.
CorporalCarrot

Greetings Rats, from cold foggy Ireland. Over in Europe, we take the holidays more seriously than most, so not surprising volumes are down. We are obviously on a virtual flatline until year end. The big question is how much pent up selling demand there is due to the capital gains tax situation (I understand in the US, deferring selling till the 4th means no CGT until April 2011).

I don't know the magnitude of this, but if I was in that position, it would be a powerful incentive to hold off any sales until January.

I think I wrote a couple of weeks ago, the action here at the moment reminds me very strongly of late 2004, where I had largely bullish positions and got hosed in the new year, for largely the same reasons.

I think the first couple of days of Jan will tell all. Incidentally, I notice on my dow trendlines chart that we've reached the (compressed) upper bollinger. A couple more days of development of this and we could be ripe for an early jan selloff.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p77962025077&a=183694427
Duuuuuude
hindyomen

hot potatoes i am way short this am

* today 12/28/09 is a bradley turn date so, looking for a ST top
* exhaustion gap up on SPX
* professional gap up (?) on VIX
* 60min MACD way way extreme

* potential black candle on the day
* potential key reversal

bottom line this puppy needs to come down for a day or two rest

first target 1119 15min 50ma
second target 1113 60min 50ma

FULL MOON 12/31/09 says selling should unfold
hindyomen

BTW, this morning's high on the ES continuous contract was 1126.25
that is the exact 50% retracement of the bear market to. the. tick.

it'd be awfully convenient to tank for a bit from here
markets like exactitude
ultra

AMZN - maybe I'm tripping, but... is that a flat?

http://screencast.com/t/ODM0NmMwZjEt
raised_by_wolves

Hamster, is ultra tripping or not?
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

if it had stoped at 136 no, at 140, maybe not

right now I just don't feel it, break from 144? hummmm
raised_by_wolves

Update on $TRAN:
http://screencast.com/t/OTQ2ZThjNmMt

With Rodent Bands on daily:
http://screencast.com/t/MjRmYTY1

With Rodent Bands on weekly:
http://screencast.com/t/N2U1ZDlj
vasiltrade

did the party finished?
raised_by_wolves

I just went long GLD with a stop just below the MA(13) on a weekly-candled chart. Problem is there's strong resistance at 108.85-108.90 where the MA(52) and MA(13) are located on a daily-candled chart. The better idea may be to think of this as no man's land and wait for a break out above MA(52) daily to go long or a break down below MA(13) weekly to go short.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

well cub, I mentioned 1113 as likely for gold, so you have a trade there ;-)

(nice seeing you like the rodent bands)
Gold_Gerb

did someone say rodent bands?! :-)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p69251294395

MA(52 & 13) are ceilings right now, wont' say more. (holiday thin volume creates craziness).
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

I hadn't checked the pre-market on gold... it went straight to my target 1113! but before market open... it's being pressed down and 1084 should provide a bounce zone back to 1112 (or beyond)

BTW did you check my Xmas analysis?
raised_by_wolves

I won't try going long again unless those ceilings are broken.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

CUB!

I'm not trading gold right now, I had made a very precise estimate of "next trading day" on gold 1113

You got that JUST BEFORE NORMAL MARKET HOURS

If we're heading down consider the 1084 bounce zone as a good LONG ENTRY
raised_by_wolves

Don't worry about me. I haven't put a trade on since I got stopped out this morning. I may go long if it moves up high enough to take out the ceiling. If we're heading down, I'll look for your bounce zone for a possible entry.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

BTW on that bounce zone start scaling in on 1086 but if it breaks 1083 (ask me again closer to that) cut your losses because the 1030's is still in the table
raised_by_wolves

Not anymore. Just got stopped out. The tape is trying to get above MA(13) weekly again but may fail. If it fails, 106 could be next.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

yes it could, but you entered below the daily ma113, you should have at least that much before a stop...
vision_invisible

Agreed on both counts. We are dominated by interventionists on all sides, economically we know we are manipulated (markets/statistics), so we are socially and politically...unfortunately our tribal genes easily setup a us vs them dialogue and the real enemies of humanity sneak away laughing like Homer's boss Mr. Burns.
gmak

Tomorrow's post will raise the hair on the back of your neck. Watch the TNX. The elastic is reaching its breaking point.
DavidDT

January 4th
raised_by_wolves

What if the future looks like this:

http://screencast.com/t/MTUyYWY0NW
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

ok you greedy clock master, so we're at a junction on TNX, I can't believe in 2 weeks without a drop of at least 10% (most likely 20%)

the big question is if we make a new high...

Living Inside a Broken Clock: Monday, Dec. 28, 2009.

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