Junk Is In

I just spent a good hour catching up on my BAA-TYX spread chart, which I hadn’t touched since Christmas. The new picture that unfolded, I hate to say, is less than encouraging for us bears:

After hovering around the 2.0% mark for about a month it’s now plummeted to 1.6% – a reading not seen since the heights of cycle wave b (a long term corrective wave of this bearish Supercycle and often misconstrued as a bull market).

Considering the fact that the CCI is in the crapper and that unemployment remains above 10% (U3 – U6 is beryond 17%) I can’t believe what I’m seeing – even at my advanced level of cynicism. If Primary wave {3} is supposedly ‘right around the corner’ – frankly I don’t feel very compelled to bet against the trend at this time. Unless I see the treasury-junk spread creep back above 2% I am very hesitant to short this market – except for quick trades like the one I twittered Monday afternoon.

Too many bears have been wiped out trying to pick the height of this insanity – I will continue in my trading hibernation mode until I see clear signs of a reversal in the making. Until we see a clear trendline break the wave count can be continued into oblivion – and I personally don’t enjoy wasting my time on academic exercises that only lead to trading losses. Stay delta neutral my intrepid stainless steel rats – it will happen, but not today.

Cheers,

Mole

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 13th, 2010 at 4:43 pm and is filed under Intraday Update, Market Outlook, Reversals. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • HighRev
    Geez Louise, the summer of 2007, that was the top in the RUT . . .

    And this time around I don't think we get a snap back like we did in 2007 either.
  • gmak
    Here is some Junk in the Trunk for ya.

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=14211#disqus_thread

    NEW POST
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  • raised_by_wolves
    Good morning Stainless Steel Rats!

    I am Jack's inverted head and shoulders sleep pattern.

    That means I'm going to bed now that it's morning and will be watching the sunrise from the bottom of the sea. But first, are you experienced? Have you ever been experienced? Well, I have. Let me prove it to you.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efeXyDZ24qE
  • K.I.M.
    Yeah, this morning i loose my beybe, but i still got my guitar.
  • Guest
    Positioning update: Still long UK Banks, some late cyclicals I think will get upgrades, ie. Heidelbergcement, Maersk, Continental, have been adding to Glaxo in last few days, a few other companies I think are GARPy, short the miners (not working yet but wait for a copper correction) and short enough index futures to leave me about 40% long. No single name shorts.
  • Guest
    The VIX trade idea is probably going to fail, without some form of exogenous shock. I did point this out on the original thread (http://evilspeculator.com/?p=14140#comment-29506247). Structured product desks across the street have a short ATM vol with long the wings position on. That is going to mean the market is susceptible to short-term vol squeezes which will fail quickly due to the long gamma dynamic. All in all, it points to range-bound or grind-higher markets for a bit.

    I was quite bearish at the back-end of last year and there was a moment early on in Jan where the market was vulnerable but to trigger these big down moves, something has to occur, i.e. an upward break of yields. We were close but no cigar. We had to turn the positioning around and thankfully the last couple of days provided that opportunity. Hence we are now longer than we have been for 3 months.

    The key in these markets IMHO is not to wish something was happening but to go with what is happening. Two weeks ago, there was upward pressure on yields with no signs of inventory restocking demand. Hence you knew that a technical break of the market could accelerate to the downside as there were genuine reasons for nervousness. Now the opposite is true, yields have come back and inventories are growing - that means earnings upgrades across the street and this is simply not in the price.

    Unlike some people, I strongly believe that the direction of fundamentals is important. Bull markets are built on improving fundamentals, bear markets on deteriorating fundamentals. Unless macro data is heading lower, you are simply not going to get a waterfall collapse. To get a bear market again, you need to be confident macro data has peaked (I think likely in Q1 this year but poss Q2), then you often get some sort of trigger event, as in 2008 with the ECB raising rates.

    My point is that tops are never totally out of nowhere. 2000 was no surprise to many, only that it took so long to fall. Equally, 2007/08 was actually amazingly slow to respond to what was happening in credit markets. The big move lower only took place when central banks got worried about inflation (Ha!). Given what the macro data is currently telling us, the chances of this ebing a top right here and now is very low. You need to get people bulled up about these earnings upgrades, start pricing them in for the rest of the year, then be confident that the macro data is about to turn again. Until I see that, we are long.


  • tradejane
    Thanks Bob, I think those are very important considerations to make when one is placing an intermediate and/or longer term trade.

    By the way, what do you think may have been the cause of that volume spike in /ES yesterday?
  • Guest
    Looks like a cross to me, i.e. ,matching buy and sell orders placed simultaneously in order to not cause market impact. The idea that the Fed were buying is nonsense as if they had come in with an order of that size it would have moved the market. But there was clearly a matching sell order of equivalent size as well. It's big for sure but who knows why. Often these things can occur simply to transfer assets within funds from one legal entity to another. So for example, if I run a hedge fund which has just set up a UCITS compliant legal structure and we want to move the assets into this fund, there still has to be a transaction because they are different legal entities. But as you don't want to take market risk (it is just an admin thing) you arrange a cross trade. Essentially all that happens is you move it from one entity to another at a fixed price then report this 'trade' to the exchange. My guess is that some bank had a number of clients looking to do a cross and simply bundled them together.
  • tradejane
    Agreed. Your explanation makes better sense.
  • One last thought on the junk spread, check out the elliott wave on this chart - corrections often stop in the territory of the previous fourth wave (this is where Prechter sources his Dow 400 prophecy) and look where we are right now

    http://screencast.com/t/ZGFjZGYzMz

    [source: Bianco Research, hat-tip: http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives...

    // correction - look where we were end october - doh! - guess that underlines how much this correction is way beyond deep - ok, I'm off for the rest of the day now - glta
  • raised_by_wolves
    Hmm, interesting.

    I'm on my third 44 so could just be talking from the bottle: Could that "stop in the territory of the previous fourth wave" idea apply to $VIX as well?

    Edit: 40, I meant. 44 is the gun I'm going to buy.
  • labdude
    I have to get to work shortly--be careful on a 44 mag--they have high recoil--if you are not used to it--can be hard to overcome.
    See this link.
    http://www.chuckhawks.com/handgun_recoil_table.htm
    He has a few areas with free info--glean what you can.
  • Ok, couple of points: firstly, that was a goof - that chart is end Oct- so it didn't stop in the fourth wave (on my count); secondly, mr vix is an oscillator, so a lot of folks baulk at applying elliott over anything but the short term - to my mind tho, you could make the same argument against applying to a lot of currency pairs. At any rate, best to let the patterns emerge as and when...
  • raised_by_wolves
    How about applying EW to $SPX/$VIX (oscillator-influenced, not oscillator)?

    http://screencast.com/t/NmY2ODllND
  • So that's interesting from a rodent band perspective but we are correcting a correction here, not a motive, so the fourth wave thing doesn't apply.

    Besides, all these Prechter saws have been comprehensively rinsed during this bear rally. Market has sailed through all of em - hence the risible state of the ewi rep currently across blogland.

    Right - really gotta go now. Going to - god help me - a job interview - trading account mostly a collection of march and beyond lottery puts, so have to get another decent stake together- not prepared to sink more savings at this point...
  • tradejane
    Good luck to you Ultra.

    If they don't take you, just let us know the name of the stock. We'll short them for you.
  • raised_by_wolves
    Ultra,

    I recommend holding off on the dope until post-interview. Good luck!

    -Raised By Wolves, AKA Not Necessarily Stoned, But Beautiful
  • WHERE IS EVERYONE??
  • sleeping?
  • Guest
    Traffic on this site does seem to have dropped a lot this year - maybe people are just giving up. A pity as I still think there is a lot of money to be made, just not by looking for the BIG one at the moment. Kudos to you for acknowledging that, unlike the EWT crackpots.
  • PRSGuitars
    I feel compelled to reply as many of the old crew appears to either still be on holiday/extended session. Not nearly as many late-nighters.

    I have been away since December Opex due to extenuating circumstances in my personal life. My aunt, diagnosed with lung and colon cancer, received news she also had seven brain tumors including the largest at the base of her cerebellum (after rapidly losing the use of her right arm and leg, she went in for a scan).

    A few days afterwards, my friend's younger brother, a twenty-two year old pre-med student at OSU, died of what we can only speculate is sudden, unprecipitated heart failure. He watched football with his dad, texted his girlfriend good-night, and never woke up.

    Whether it's by vicious, unrelenting theta burn or the unjust plunging of one's stop in the middle of the night, the market eats all of our lunch. It's just a matter of how your chips get cashed in.

    Emotionality aside, my rational mind needed a breather from the silliness of the past 9 months as well. I took a week off with my girlfriend to visit Boca Raton (A+ steaks, really!) and didn't open my computer once. What a thing for me...(my normal 12-14 hr trading days don't work without internet!).

    I'm back in full force this week but lurking while I get my life in check.

    TOS also kindly DELETED ALL OF MY CHART DRAWINGS randomly. Those who know me well say this is a good thing, as my charts looked "star wars-y" according to some on Slope. In any case, I have to rebuild from scratch -- a good thing, as it provides a fresh view -- but it's taken me a while for me (or Stella) to get that groove back.

    I'm literally astonished at what's going on with the VIX, BAA/10yr, etc. This continues to baffle me, however, I'm moving a portion of my assets to forex to approach things with greater scalability (ES/NQ just doesn't suit me with light overnight volume sometimes... and they're huge for a small, sub25k'er like myself).

    I wish I had more insight but I felt your cry for help and had to toss my report in. You better believe this is my home and I don't want you to think for a second you've lost me to another blog. I've just been with family - tough what with my aunt's self-described 'last ____ (Christmas, New Years, etc)' - and friends trying to decipher the next heinous curve ball to be tossed to those of us ambitious enough to stand in the batter's box.

    I figure the story with this blog is like a drug dealer, sort of...
    ...as long as RBWolves, That Sneaky Hamster, Tradejane, gmak, gregn, centrif (MD), and the like keep showing up, you'll keep giving us our fix.

    Don't go anywhere, buddy. 2010 will be a wacky one.
  • hope 2010 is MUCH better than 2009 foryou, and glad to see you back

    p.s. sneaky?
  • WOW - and I thought *I* had problems - silly me! Thanks for dropping by to share your story - we all miss you, mate. I hope 2010 will be a better year for you and your family.
  • raised_by_wolves
    Hey! It's that guitars guy! Good to hear from you, my friend, though I'm sorry to hear that life has been trying for you and those you love. I wish I could give you a big manly bear hug right now. You have my email, right? Feel free to write me anytime.
  • jacksoo
    sorry to hear of bad news PRS but welcome back.
  • Good to see you back mate.

    And very sorry to hear about your friend's brother and your aunt - one of my oldest and dearest friends died in similar circumstances last summer from undiagnosed cardiomyopathy.

    Look, I don't know if it's too late, but you may want to check out an Italian oncologist called Tullio Simoncini, who has some controversial ideas about cancer and its treatment. I don't know anyone personally who's been treated by him or his methods, but I know that this clinic I'm giving you the link for is well-respected over here and it sounds like you have exhausted all other options.

    Just throwing it out there.

    http://www.theshenclinic.com/
  • tradejane
    Dear Lord, I'm so sorry PRS.

    It's a good thing you took some time off from trading. I'm glad you did this. Welcome back and take it easy, ok?
  • Er... here?

    Morning.

    So........ I see that /ES is flat from the close more-or-less - any movement overnight - anyone got the chart to post if so?
  • tradejane
    http://www.screencast.com/t/Y2ZlMGZmMGEt

    There was some nice action for those who trade late but no, it hasn't gone to the moon yet. Maybe later.
  • raised_by_wolves
    So, you read my reply to TK. Did you also look at my charts? Are they utterly worthless and not worth commenting on?
  • What charts?

    And btw - that is a leading question which I usually do not respond to.
  • raised_by_wolves
    So, my charts are so shitty, you don't even acknowledge their presence?

    I was referring to the lqd/jnk shit, the $tyx/lqd shit, and all the $vix ratio charts shit.
  • And who are you again?
  • raised_by_wolves
    The LQD/JNK chart looks similar to yours. The $TYX/JNK looks surprisingly different with that big ass drop in the middle. At the moment, I don't have access to a computer and TOS so can't figure out what accounts for it. I'll have to delve deeper when I return to "civilization."
  • raised_by_wolves
    Wow, that was a quickie, that is, the quickest I've ever been released from jail. They must be tired of providing me a room every other night. Mind if I crash at your place, Mole? ;-)
  • raised_by_wolves
    I'm Mr. Nearly Gets His Ass Banned All The Time (also known as Occasionally Lands Himself In Jail).

    I meant to put a wink face or two in there, but, seriously, did you look at this one?

    http://screencast.com/t/M2ZlOGM1

    And maybe this too?

    http://screencast.com/t/Yzk2MTA4O

    I don't think I have access to Moody's BAA, so I'm trying to find some alternative ratio charts that will tell me a worthwhile story about where this market is likely to be headed. Don't get me wrong. Your updated $TYX to BAA chart was, is, and will much appreciated. It's just that it is analogous to giving me salmon, my favorite fish. I'm also trying to learn how to catch my own salmon.
  • tradejane
    The DAX is poised to open at R2 area of 6003. Techs/banks flying. Pivot for today is 5954. S1 is seen at 5934.

    Planning to short the index at the open. Also considering 3,75 Infineon Feb puts for a quick trade. Getting out of both if /ES goes to 1147.

    Btw, could it be the "/ES - Euro correlation" has reversed?
  • innatedc
    Tradejane, do you know what time the rate decision announcement is? Eastern standard time....
  • tradejane
    That must be 7.45 am ET.
  • jacksoo
    hi TJ - your index short wld be short-term expecting further highs this week?
  • tradejane
    I'm not expecting any new highs for this week. (But stranger things have happened.)
  • jacksoo
    i think i asked you this before TJ but where are you based - Germany?
  • tradejane
    Yes. And you're based in Australia, right?
  • jacksoo
    Yeah - hows the weather - the big snow fall cleared?
  • tradejane
    No, still here. Salt stocks will make a great short when the weather changes.
  • Recap for Wednesday, NASDAQ leads the way higher and Dow confirms new 52-week closing high http://bit.ly/651lBE
  • gregn
    Possible VIX megaphone bottom still in progress. RBW, you may recall that I called a drop to the bottom support again: http://screencast.com/t/ZmM0MDFjZ
  • raised_by_wolves
    Although I am susceptible to false memories, I believe this one is true. My recollection is coming back to me. Yes, that's right, you did call the bottom support.

    Try charting connecting the same candles on $VIX/$GLD. If I recall correctly, the tops will be flat instead of angled up. Does that change the name and nature of the pattern or does it still count as megaphone bottom? (In the half year I've been trading, I never learned chart patterns). Now, try $VIX/$SPX. The same? Similar? Different?

    Anyone got some weed?
  • bubble jeopardy
    My Murphy technical analysis book says that a broadening formation such as the megaphone on your chart is generally a topping formation and bearish. Because $vix is interpreted as a contrary indicator and if your pattern is correct, would it be occurring as a bottom? It seems a wedge formation could also be used to describe the more recent decline which would also be bullish for $vix, bearish for stocks.
  • SpeedSkt1
    Mole--

    Must the confirmation of the VIX sell signal happen in consecutive days? Or, if we were to have a close above yesterday's close in the VIX, would that confirm the signal?
  • No, it has to happen in consecutive days.
  • Hochberg was saying it was valid - are you saying not?
  • AudioTactics
    It's a good question and in my experience the signal would be confirmed if and when the VIX closes above yesterday's close.

    As an aside, however, I have seen some Technical Analysts use the high of the day rather than the close for the confirmation signal.
  • ClutchShorter
    I am sick of this market. I had a credit spread on BIDU 440/450 expiring this Friday. It was worth 50 cents Tuesday before the close. Then Google announces that they are contemplating about withdrawing from China. BIDU overreacts and shoots up 13% the next day. My spreads are now ridiculously in the red. DAMMITTT. This happened to me so many times these last few months.
  • gregn
  • gregn
  • Mole, it has been a long time since you posted an update on the 'slosh'.

    From this link: http://www.gmtfo.com/reporeader/OMOps.aspx

    It would appear that the feds are removing half of the 'slosh' tomorrow.
  • Yes, it always appears that way - but then you check a few days later and they reduced it by a lot less. Not sure if it's some nasty game they are playing but I gave up on the slosh in the context of my short term analysis. Long term the swamp is being drained but heck - we keep on melting higher. I don't want to be like EWI in jawboning a 'large drop just ahead' month after month after month. Yes, eventually they will be right - but even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

    The wave count right now is meaningless - the pattern could extend for days, weeks, or perhaps months. It's only clear AFTER the fact - meaning once a trendline has been breached. Until that happens I am fading EVERYTHING but my most trusted indicators. Which is the only thing I'm volunteering right now and you guys have to admit that what I have been offering has worked most recently. It's not much - but at least I have not recommended you guys go massively short. EWI are not option traders - we have to be a lot smarter than Hochberg before even attempting to trade against the larger trend.

    I hope I'm not disappointing anyone here. Bearish as ever - and I know it WILL happen. But I have also learned what it means trying to fight the Fed - and I won't make that mistake again. Their hand will only be forced - they will never let this go the easy way unless they decide to crash the market intentionally - which is a possibility. But in that case the 'nature' of the tape would change dramatically and I am not seeing any signs of that right now.
  • I have noticed that in the past, the amount reduced has been less than 'promised'. Agreed on all counts regarding the futility of 'fighting the Fed.'
  • jacksoo
    did you catch the reports over at Zero Hedge re the ES 200k trade - what a crock.
  • Didn't catch the report but heard about it right here. You guys know what that means - it's not about the money, it's about making a statement. (as in the Joker quote in Batman).
  • rg64
    I dont see how this is not bearish.....The last time it got this low we had a waterfall market decline. (Am I looking at something wrong here)
  • rg64
    Do you have a chart that goes out longer. I am now wondering what the all time lows look like. Thanks in advance!
  • GLD, I'm late (slept the afternoon) for talking about the 109.7 bounce zone BUT

    even better 112.7 is a confirmed kill for going long (probably beyond 122.7).

    a refusal of 112.7 and a new breach of 109.7 will likely see us heading for 104.5 before a major move.

    Don't even know if someone is paying attention or has any interest on this, so at least say if any of the hamster rants are usefull for you.

  • raised_by_wolves
    I, for one, am still reading most of your rants. So, you're saying go long GLD at the current level with a target of 112.7 or, hopefully, a hell lot higher. Sell if there's a new breach of 109.7.

    Now, how about a rant on SLV? How do you predict SLV will perform relative to GLD?
  • a last push to 1.7?
  • raised_by_wolves
    That's what I think is most probable. I don't have any reasons other than the usual: the short-term trend is up and there is no resistance from Rodent Bands until 0.17. Is it really this easy to predict what is most probable?

    After an entire week, I finally got my hands (mouth and brain) on some anti-kryptonite. What a difference! The selective hyper focus is back, and I'm applying it to chess games at the moment. I'm reserving the 2 AM to 3 AM hour for developing comprehensive trading plans for next week based on a series of conditionals. If I can keep myself drunk, then I can keep myself profitable ;-)
  • amokta
    according to elliott wave intl stu today, the end-diagonal is ending, and...wait for it - "This means a trend reversal is fast approaching."

    but they say that every week, for the last few months at least!
  • See my comment further up - I could not agree more. It's not that I blame them for the market melting higher. But I think EWI could have done a much better job in keeping the door open to bullish scenarios. I also believe they themselves know they jumped the gun - but they have been in the business long enough to write their reports in a fashion so that they can argue against any accusations after the fact. They have to be careful - and they have been. But no matter what they are saying going forward - they were at least four months too early. Which killed a lot of their option trading followers - period. They were also horribly wrong on gold - all year. How can you say a market will drop for 500 points and then claim you were 'right' on gold when it finally drops? I mean - give me a break - how about making money on the upside?

    I have always counted my own waves and openly admit when I thought I was wrong. Obviously my advantage (and disadvantage) is that I do not hand my work down from an ivory tower like EWI. If I'm wrong you guys will call me on it - so trust me - I know what it means to face an angry (and losing) crowd. They don't seem to ever let on that they might be wrong - which has actually been a source of personal disappointment. I think technically EWI is still excellent and they will be proven right in the long term. But sometimes the little things and the in-between means a lot and makes all the difference to whoever is listening. I'm keenly aware of that fact more than ever now which is why I have become very cautious about what I say openly here.
  • btw can you comment on gld? I mentioned two trigers and targets
  • Paleface
    This is the Mole I like. BTW the spread says: 30yr=junk:)
  • rg64
    They have been trying to pick a top since June or July. Have been very wrong. They also were badly wrong in realizing a bottom calling for another 5th wave down they had to conceed after not coming back in March
  • amokta
    i wasnt a subscriber back before the march bottom, but they are very selective in their adverts/promotions, as they only show the reports that show they correctly called the 'top' or 'bottom', but fail to mention all the reports where they cried 'wolf' or got it wrong, until they got it right (which we can all do)
  • amokta
    i subscribe, not just for their predictions (which have a poor record it seems), but also to provide some background market commentry from a contrarian viewpoint
  • BPSPX DOWN we have an unhook from the upper BB13, now the question will be the MA13 itself... soon enough I guess

    so another indicator for a short term equities down movement
  • randomwalker
    Thanks Mole for the alert to change my avie, but I think its more a reflection of the fact that the RR on TB are so low, 1.6 rate lately on $CRRB, that money is fleeing to HYs and EMs. MorganStan does expect 5.5 on 10yr by 2011.
  • Gold_Gerb
    Mole..thank you for your unique insights.
    As a trader, I thought it didn't matter which way the market moved.
    But the realization that the fundamentals don't match the technicals...
    well, I felt the same way from DOW 12K to 14K.
    That took about 2 years to play out.
    You mentioned time, my time invested the past few months has not paid squat.
    Maybe perhaps in the future it will.
    Until then, goodbye.
    I will be lurking for a very very long time.

    -Gerbil.
  • Thanks for saying goodbye - I really cannot blame you for taking a step back at this point. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.

    Of course once we sucker all leave there will be less of us to squeeze, which might stop the advance in its track. It's already been happening in December as the market took a looong time to advance higher against no resistance. Eventually the market is going to collapse under its own bullish weight - when I do not know. It will happen - hopefully soon as I cannot wait to see those assholes run around with their hair on fire. I hope every single one of those bastards gets wiped out.
  • bananaben
    Except for IYR which was squeezed unbelievably hard. I think they put all their focus on that one. Fucked me good - thanks Santa Claus.
  • this market takes no prisoners - especially ones with common sense
  • ET TU GERBIL?
  • Oboy
    Mole, long time reader......Just wanted to say thanks for a great blog, you have taught me an lot.

    Thank you!
  • The little I know I am happy sharing. Please pass on whatever helps your trading to others like you. The little traders get screwed by those fuckers 'doing God's work' on a daily basis - we stainless steel rats need to collaborate and beat those bastards at their own game.
  • bananaben
    That's simple - listen to Cramer.
  • vix ratios (:gold and :cpce) tell interesting stories, vix:cpce just gave first sign of inversion, vix:gold is on stage 2 of inversion

    spx:gold refused the ma13 conjunction with ma104 (bounced down from the rise) THE WAY IS DOWN

    well, still waiting for BPSPX update
  • raised_by_wolves
    Hey, are you all RBWed out? (You haven't replied to any of my comments). I'll check out your ratios charts (later tonight when I have time) if you check out mine (located in the comments of this post and the previous one).

  • sorry, been reviewing longer timeframes for hours, will post something for you latter.

    relink and comment yours on an answer to me please
  • ok, i've been scalping for close to two weeks
    based on where the macd and histograms are on the SPX/ES dailies
    (positioned at near breaking point of a quintuple divergence)

    i'm looking to open a swing or position trade as a seller
    especially if we can hit a marginal high and find sellers tmr
  • Captain Obvious
    Not to be a downer on that indicator but I believe the spread tightening is more a reflection of the new perception of Treasuries (yield backing up: pick either Asian buyers leaving or flood of new issuance) than a vote of confidence in risk.
  • Not to be an upper on your argument but it's the BAA dropping mostly, not the TYX.
  • Yeah, you may have a point there - just looking at JNK, looks toppy on the rodent bands - http://screencast.com/t/Zjg0NTYyN2Et

    Likewise TYX? http://screencast.com/t/NTkxZWE0NzQt

    Bear wedge on the diamonds - I can dream - http://screencast.com/t/MzgyYmJlYz
  • raised_by_wolves
    Look at the ratio too. It been oscillating around the mid-band lately:

    http://screencast.com/t/Yzk2MTA4O
  • care to explain or at least give a 10 year chart?

    this is another of the charts that haunt me with EVERYTHING from march 2008 is an unfinished and gone wild correction
  • yep but that could well be a bear flag there - or an elliott (iv)
  • raised_by_wolves
    Mole,

    Now that ratio charts have been added to Prophet at my request (I'm sure no one else was as persistent as me and my weekly cattle-prod emails), I've been charting LQD/JNK and vice versa.

    LQD/JNK is not a clone of BAA-TYX, but doesn't it look like a son or daughter?

    http://screencast.com/t/M2ZlOGM1

    Hoping today's contributions will make up for yesterday's indiscretions,

    Raised By Wolves
  • St. Deluise
    you inspired me to see what IWM/JNK has been up to. bubble in IWM since the first week of december?

    http://i46.tinypic.com/j8ef7a.png
  • raised_by_wolves
    Shooting first.

    Have you been able to draw any conclusions from your ratio? If not conclusions, any new questions to ask yourself?

    On an unpleasantly small screen. Will view your chart later tonight.
  • raised_by_wolves
    Also, TOS users can now easily chart $TYX/JNK. Unfortunately, JNK is not exactly the same as Moody's BAA (couldn't find it with a symbol search). So, my chart differs from yours.

    http://screencast.com/t/Yzk2MTA4O
  • how come ratio charts won't work outside prophet? i hate that ui
  • raised_by_wolves
    Complain to TOS. I'm now complaining that the ratio charts in Prophet are buggy as hell.
  • Well c'mon over to Slope and say so!
  • Here's the devil snake again with his apple.
  • raised_by_wolves
    Well, you'd have to provide better benefits such as EW counts on all your charts to attract my talent level over to Slope. Just sayin'.

    ;-)
  • OUCH!!!

    Sorry Tim - he means well and he's a loyal rat ;-)
  • Not even speaking DeMark-ian!
  • Schwerepunkt
    OPEX sucks _____________ .
  • shortcover
    stopped out of VXX...this market! wild.
  • 100% net shor tnow
  • mad russian, you join the hamster!

    you have more balls than brain... (either that or we have more brain and not enough brown)

    well, the ma6 (which is predictive enough so far) of the spx:cpce is still down

    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-E6AE_4B4E327A.html
  • this market killed all people with brains
  • zombieland?
  • with you. sold 1143.25 target 1139ish
  • covered 1143.25 short at 1141.5
    +6.75 on the day

    7 for 7
  • Schwerepunkt
    Sweet.
  • i dunno.. that's half a red bull per point!
  • Schwerepunkt
    If you can consistently take 5-points net a day on just two ES contracts, that's a six-figure living.
  • Consistently 5 points is a LOT, buddy - don't kid yourself.
  • Guest
    Minyanville now quoting ES! Can't they write their own analysis? At least they are quoting the best blog on the web.
    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Warner-VIX-bollinger-countertrend-sell+signals/index/a/26343
  • wow
    did they get explicit permission to republish?
  • Schwerepunkt
    Don't I know it. I only made 1.25 points today. ;-(
  • how about if i can consistently win or lose 5 points on a day?
  • "ride the winners"
    when bears last time had "ride"???
    keep stops tight, I am getting sick watching this tape.
    May be becoming a trader was not such a good idea on the first place :)
  • Schwerepunkt
    Ballsy. Once Asia and Europe open the helium will be flowing.
  • hey i'll drop a few hundred US pe$os once in a while just to keep myself interested and awake (:
  • Yeah it blows innit

    ZH on the magical magnetism of SPX 1150

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-1150-strange-attractor
  • it IS happening
    praise the Lloyd!
  • bubble jeopardy
    very, very true mole, at least we are closer than we were in 3/09
  • Schwerepunkt
    Thanks for the update. I was wondering if you had drawn any conclusions about the last few days of action. We're still on auto-pilot float mode.
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