Broken clock!

Et tu, Mole?

I've put links back to this post and to my post from last night in today's missive. Both are important and shouldn't be lost to the more civilized late-risers.

http://evilspeculator.com/?p=14905#disqus_thread

NEW POST
NEW POST
NEW POST
NEW POST
NEW POST
NEW POST
NEW POST

Sorry mate but I did not have time during the day. And remember, Sunday is my day - if you have an impportant post wait until Monday morning, this way it also gets more eyeballs.

It's not an issue. Everything is fine. All are happy. Buy equities.  :-)




________________________________

Raised By Wolves is left unless he just alcohol poisoned himself with too many servings of fermented pomegranate arils.

Thanks for the great posts, Gmak & Mole!
Good morning!
Reposting DAX's stats, which should be of most interest this morning...

Chart: DAX price-volume density for the last 133 days.
http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/5272/jshotc.png
If price-volume is going to say something about resistances and supports, here is what I see from the last ~6 months:
* Resistance should appear around 6000-6050 range, where DAX was traded a lot in January.
* First support around 5850~5875.
* Bigger support just below 5800.
* During end of 2009, most volume was traded in the 5650~5750 range. Don't know if this still holds much significance, but the low part of this range (5650~5700) was a pause zone in Jan-Feb drop and ulterior recover, and overall has repeated as support and resistance.

Now someone will tell me this chart is readily available from some site, after I spent half Sunday producing it. Well, I had fun!

Candle-shapes.-

Tomorrow is a 45% historical chance of a pure low-to-high day, and a combined 55% of a green candle (green candles can happen on red days too).
That is, after a low-to-mid and a low-to-low in DAX, something that has only happened 11 times since 1990, 5 of them resulted in a low-to-high next day. And 3 of those were big up days.

Prev 31 32 21 33 22 11 12 23 13 count
1211 9% 9% 9% 0% 9% 9% 9% 0% 45% 11

OC3 was 121113 on:
30/05/2003 2982,68 +2,61%
17/04/2003 2899,78 +2,66%
01/11/1994 2069,70 -0,09%
30/12/1991 1578,00 +0,92%
09/07/1991 1627,60 +1,41%

Gmak's similar results for a low-to-high SPX makes me expect a steadily growing day. But my gut say this stats don't have to get repeated today. There are too few cases in the past to give them statistical significance, and this is OPEX week, when you can ditch your stats you-know-where! ;-)

Good luck!

Nice stats, thanks. If I'm not mistaken there's also St. Patricks day this week. Movements "tend" to be bullish until then.

Now for some Monday morning humor:

Primary and Secondary trends cannot be manipulated; it would strain the resources of the U.S. Treasury to do so. - Edwards & Magee 1948

PS. Comedybank is down nearly 20 cents since its Friday high, not a bad start for a 5 Euro stock that's really only worth about 15 cents or so.

Gatopeich, Still awaiting reply on job opps here that I made for you. Not much time for markets last few days, but here a couple of comment re your volume at price.
there are just some basic things to look at - rejection or acceptance of price and what is the Long Term Time Frame trader doing ( as it this trader who really moves the market) they deal on the edge of the ranges.
Good luck

Thanks a lot for the job ops! I am getting some offers from Ireland now, they say it is a good place for engineers now. Mostly small corporations which are growing now, I guess the big ones are no rival these times. Dublin is not bad (too rainy but nice), and I kind of like the idea of living in a small country.

Regarding price-volume, I don't have access to advanced data. Currently I am more curious than 'predictious' about it. So tks for the tip!

I have a book by Joe Rondinone (a great trader who also taught Robert Krauss of Market Wizards fame who I also did some work with) it has some of his original notes in it. Its a great book on on price a volume. I will see if I can get it out of storage and scan some points for you. Might be a couple of weeks though if that is ok.

Thanks a lot, chrono! I think I am abusing your kindness a bit already ;-). Got tons of things to study so there is no hurry!

I think the Euro is key. Rumors of a united Greece bailout were cyber'd, but EUR/USD did not rally.

Have you taken a look at your weekly moving averages?

Weekly MA 208:

http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/fa310e75-70b4-4bfb-b0d1-fcd89682fb78/00001029.png

Nice, what line is swatting down the EUR/USD now? Or it that the middle of the BB?

That's the weekly MA 208 at 1.384.

so that is 4 years worth of weekly data, averaged? i.e. 52 weeks 8 4 year = 208.

You like the 208?

Yeah, the four year (208 week) MA is sick.

The nine year (468 week) MA can be pretty damn useful too. Just ask that Portuguese Hamster. Speaking of the nine year, it's highly relevant at the moment:

http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/a0604bfe-18fd-4a11-9fdd-b4aa44736feb/00001031.png

And Fib Fans.....holy confluence batman!

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/03/spx-fib-fan-from-1932-and-9-year-468.html

My rendition of the Great Fib Fan is nudged a little higher than yours:

http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/ea2e176d-7c8d-4f3e-9d47-e1a8d19966bf/00001032.png

Yeah, in another time aggregation period mine shows a bit higher also. Close enough for 80 years though :-)

Why a bailout would be a rally for EUR/USD. I would expect EUR tanking, since they will print a big lot of them... Bailout or not!

The problem we got here is who prints faster: USD, EUR, JPY, CNY? And which one gets faster to markets, the ultimate answer.

The Canadians haven't been able to keep up with the European money printers since December. If, instead of a reversal here, the purple BB breaks, then I think the orchid SMAE has a high probability of being reached.

http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/9865aaa5-1fbf-4670-a1ac-4b6f91801e27/00001030.png

Just thinking that Europe blowing up, would not be good for the Euro. And letting Greece go down the toilet would be the first step in Europe blowing up.

Yeah, I guess so...

But who cares about Greece anymore? I have seen the people fighting the police, and police going on strike there, but you got to check that stuff online, it does not show on TV. All we get on TV in Spain is football and gossip. Seriously. I better stop whining! :-)

To impose or not to impose austerity measures may determine whether the world experiences a shorter, more violent depression (imposed) or a longer, less violent depression (not imposed).

still here.! my charts say some kind of fall/correction is due..how much ...? Who knows..need to see a couple of supports broken for the bulls to take some profit...

Morning catracho!
I am preparing for sideways action. That is, getting good stuff to read and possibly some online gaming.

Let's hope you're right. Taiwan says we are heading lower, has been a decent read of late.