Picked up some SPY front month 109 puts as a hedge, up 20% AH, so retrace is in order for tomorrow it seems. should dump them.

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There's a new post up.

SPARTA!!!

^TNX not confirming general bearishness. Its daily close low was set on May 25th when the market hit 1040.78. We have had lower SPX closes since, but ^TNX has been higher. ^TNX should confirm any move down because money that flows out of stocks should flow into bonds.

I see so many conflicting signals here. I want to believe that 1040 is going to break. I'm positioned for it to break. I just don't know...

Ok here is my prediction. If she cannot get going up to the EW5 I keep on bringing up between now and say 2:30 PM, she has a good chance to sell off EOD. I see a potential problem for up building on longer time frames. I might as well give some some more fodder. Again a break of 68 delivers 60.
Line up at the gate.

There is nothing to learn by the underlying, well maybe vol. or MACD.

http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/...

do they know something?

or how PPT can now go for coffee/lunch breaks without worry

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/10/AR2010061002636.html?hpid=topnews

OK guys this is an extremely important area, either we break EWs (1068) or we finish the 5 to the upside. I dunno. It will be a battle.

i have i gut feeling for up scenario although i dont like it

But notice how it continues to bang away at my 68. And we don't trade feelings we trade charts. Make market prove or disprove your feeling

hehe ok ok :)

Bob,
Are you still in AIXG? I keep hearing about new orders, happy customers, plenty of business, etc....Looks awfully tempting to load up the truck down here.

have been adding to it over the last week - the key will be a step-up in the move to LED general lighting (i.e. Phillips, etc.) but it is going to happen eventually, the energy efficiency arguments are so strong. I think it will probably double over the next 12 months. Recent weakness has been because some people are fearful of over capacity in the LED TV manufacturing space but this is a relatively minor concern. This is the global leader in a new technology which has 80% of costs in Euro - would not be surprised to see it get bid for.

I've been thinking along the same lines, but would prefer to be buying under $20 if the market manages a further correction. I guess it has been weak hands selling over the past few weeks, but I won't sell.....just looking to add. Thx.

This is the kind of fundamental research you can take to the bank - my silicon valley brother (physics PhD) is involved in developing this technology and tells me its reach will be planetary

Btw, any other companies you're looking at?

It should be huge but the risk for a company like Aixtron is that the technological barriers to entry aren't high enough. However, as they have a 70% global mkt share, their R&D budget is miles bigger than anyone else. It is only a USD 2.5bn mkt cap company so a very likely bid candidate - probably easier to buy them than compete with them if you are a AMAT

Thanks for answering - seems like a buyout would be a decent LT play however ... Competition is another issue entirely of course.

(humble query: what's a AMAT? .. I'm working hard on my acronym lexicon)

Applied Materials - big component of the SOX, a rumoured potential buyer.

evidence is beginning to suggest that PW2 might just be a descending triangle. W1:5/13, W2:5/25, W3:6/3, W4:6/8, W5:today. the stars might just be lining up. if this is the case: KAPOW...Liston is down...

Just trying to understand: on the PZI why is there such a huge cap between the close of 3rd hourly candle AND the open of the 4th hourly candle

Drop coming now. 10 minutes. Plzzz break 68. LOL

Are you psychic ? :)

I got some f*ckin good tools. Absolutely nothing is made up, whimsical, or farcical. All based on charts.

lets hope we get a drop, my account doesnt look as good as it did yesterday

Focused on the short term again. Why?

getting concerned that my profits will evaporate again like they did dec09, july 09, feb10 (i.e. held on too long!). had i bought & sold the puts, rather than 'holding on for P3', i would have been far more in proft. Anyway, im short right now, & holding.

The P2 play is a short-term hedge to the long side and a long-term core short position. You sell off the hedge as things move up, and when all of the hedge is gone, you add to shorts. The hedge keeps you in business. The key is balancing the positions.

Remember, "this time it's different." We rebounded sharply off of 1040 the last time. The market is flirting with it right now.

Thanks i dont hedge (so far!) hence i have to buy/sell as i go along!

At this point I see no reason to hedge, but said strategy would have worked incredibly well during P2; at the peak you'd have been positioned in lots of cheap, long-dated puts.

I was reading a write-up on Magnetar which was quite interesting. Magnetar is a hedge fund that used cash flow from equity tranches of CDOs to pay for CDS against the same equity tranches. Their position was equivalent to having sold the equity tranches to the CDS issuer with Magnetar retaining a small % of the cash flow *and* receiving a pay-out if the tranches failed. The ingeniousness of this is that Magnetar's short positions were self-funding.

Bad habits die hard! (I'm the prime example ... )

Let's face it, ST is fun, at least until you get your head handed to you

68 sticky.

BBs are widening, and we're on the wrong side of the SMA. I don't know how he gets 10 minutes, but you can see it developing.

Part logic and part secret. LOL I provided 68 as a level, we were hovering above it, a magnet. I use other stuff to determine too. If you sat besides me for a week you might not see it as it is always changing.

Uh, lol!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AAa0gd7ClM

Why is the Bell-weather Sachs of Gold man tanking right now?

A new SEC suit against them. Ever think you would see it at 132?

Bloomy-foreclosures up to record. Rates @ 4.72% and falling.

well, the brave did short the banks in 08, and the brave went long banks in april 09
did the brave or the foolish go short in april 10?

Who cares as long as Goldman tanks !!!

Sela, %R (15)

lookin :))

If it cannot push up now I think it will break down. It should be powering up to an EW5 on the 5 min.

Alright guys, here is my plan.....I'm long 1074 all morning and I'm holding long because UVOL-DVOL is relentlessness in its push higher. I expect the morning highs to be breached by around 230pm, and I will buy another contract on that breakout, with a target of 1082-1085. Now, I don't think we will break 1088, Friday's intraday high, and if we don't---I will take 1 contract short before the close on the futures with a 10pt volatility stop.

I'd like to pick short near these major resistance areas in anticipation of a move we had similar to last Friday-Monday, from 1107-1040. I day trade to swing trade, or at least I try, :D.

European markets are closed. The SPX decline yesterday started at 11:30. Today it's been consistently pointing down since then, too. Hope it works out for you, but beware.

Look at uvol-dvol, you are seeing different action then you did yesterday during choppy action. We might pull back to 1068-1065, maybe even 1060, I doubt we break down as we did yesterday.

I'm not looking for a break of 1040 today, but there is not yet a bottom painted on this thing either on the daily or intraday.

Sounds like a good plan. Really.

Might keep a long /ES and go short /NQ. For now, let's let this play out, we might get another late day sell-off like yesterday, lol.

There's really not much that would surprise me right now.

I haven't looked at a straight $SPX in ages. Almost forgot the symbol ;-) So, when I typed it in just now, what did I find? One of my highlighted price levels was tagged perfectly.

http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/7fa210c3-ff17-489a-a709-433cd7d89fa0/00001548.png

Question is, was that the high or the midpoint of the day? Hehe.

Big sells going through on ES....

New down facing levels for ES U0:
1058 to 62 with 60 popping up a lot
1041
1028 (partieeee)

1068 sticky.

perhaps just a test of the std dev line

mini divergence on lite

by mini divergence you mean the dip below the zero line in an up market?

yeah but i typed to early as the line ticked back up...

well its gone now... yeah forget who told me to watch it and learn... but thats good advice.

Hey-ho, the big ship SPX seems to be turning down

& whats up with optionsxpress, has it suffered counter-party default - cant pull up chains!

Half position closed 1074.25.

Plz, if I may ask you how do you derive your targets. Nice trade, I am still in.

fractal bars and many others...

Anyone tell me what is the difference between M0 and U0 levels for NQ and ES?

This puzzled me too. Not a futures trader, but enjoy learning the lingo -

4.5 for ES

My levels, since ST market is pointing up they are to upside, break one and we go the the newt. Will post more downside ones if she breaks.

New T's for ES U0
T1=1068, break that with conviction and we go to
T2=1073 (this one looks to be the winner at this point)
T3=79
T4=83

anyone having trouble bringing up options chain on BP in optionsxpress?

Holding long from 1074. I'll buy another on a break of the day's high at 1079. My target is 1082-1085. 1088 is heavy resistance, it is the intrady of last friday, break that and we have a good chance to head back to 1100.

Pivot points on 15 are calling this an add to longs

I bought my BP Jan 2012 7.5 puts "lotto tickets" at .97

May this company go down the tubes..Or close to it..

Good luck...you never know.

The more i see the oil pour out on the corner of cnn screen the better the odds

True. I think the unknown long term problems associated with this are what's really in your favor. And you've got a year and a half. I've got 'em on my screen and thinking about 'em myself. :)

The Bell Weather that is BP seems to be turning down right now.

Looks to me like another short time frame (60) failed EW5 attempt, a bit too early to tell. . .

Are we gonna have the same situation as yesterday - Europe closes and the US starts to decline?

IMO yes, but don't expect to see 1040 today. Europe's market is what drove ours up so high.

That is what I'm thinking as well. A fairly large divergence between europe and the US has been building up lately, with the european charts looking more bullish. The big question is who is "right" over the longer term.

They fell harder too, no? The other point to be made is that a weak Euro stimulates European exports and hurts US -> Europe exports. Also, the assets have to be revalued to adjust for the currency distortions. That would drive US assets down since the dollar is worth more and European assets up since the Euro is worth less.

Fell harder when? From the April highs the S&P is down ~11.5% and DAX only a bit more than 4%. You are correct about the weak euro though.

Sorry, I was not trying to claim that they did. I thought they had, but I don't watch that market.

Sorry, didn't mean to sound harsh. I was only wondering if you were maybe looking at another timeframe than me. The weak euro is surely one reason for the difference, but I find it curious that the euro markets are stronger since much of the current uncertainty stem from there.

I just checked a few more indicators that I haven't looked at in a while. I've been too caught up in short-term trading.

1) ^TNX -- on the daily it's in a down-trending channel, the 20-SMA points down, and it's below the 20-SMA. It needs to rally and hold for 2 days above the 20-SMA to confirm a trend change.
2) SPX -- while I normally watch intraday, I haven't been checking the daily chart. Graph it with 10-period bollingers, and the result is even more telling. Two consecutive closes above the 10-SMA are required for a trend change.

He would probably think I'm crazy for using such a short time frame, but I'm really liking Stainless Steel Hamster's "Centennial Bands" on the four minute chart of EUR/JPY.

http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/ef702af2-1a43-418b-a258-635e72ebd34a/00001539.png

add some EW and seems like support near 1.1 and a final (?) ramp to new highs

To my untrained EW eyes, we may have painted a wave one down and a wave two up.

http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/ad2a0f9e-446b-4127-9616-e5ef5567e59e/00001545.png

Am I smoking crack?

hope not, there are better things to smoke, eat or snort.

As for the count....we'll see how it handles at 109.8 and 110.3-110-4

p.s. cub has started looking at EWT?

"As for the count....we'll see how it handles at 109.8 and 110.3-110-4"

So, I can go short now and cover if EUR/JPY goes above 110.31, right?

http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/491aafb5-26c4-439f-a359-6313e65d1bd4/00001549.png

cub, 2 or 3 things...

1. I just glimpsed at that particular chart
2. I believe that current market does NOT comply with pure EWT (you have to guess where it was prodded and if it was believed or ignored)
3. I'd rather short close to1.4 with tight stops

AND... IT'S YOUR TRADE

p.s. but i always speak my mindand feel free to ask and to ask why i spoke ;-)

In addition to watching EUR/JPY, I decided that it would be a good idea to watch EUR and JPY independently. Neither of their trend lines have broken (yet).

euro went to sma13 and refused it... 1.16 should be close

Spoke a minute too soon?

Updated EUR/JPY chart showing triple support that has to be broken . . .

http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/60d8b245-b993-44b6-8204-5ea0f7d77c24/00001541.png

Basing or about facin'? IMO down now. Everything curling.

short from 1078 MACD will cross now

Including my toes !!....

EUR/USD breaks trend line now testing resistance

http://www.screencast.com/users/jigdaddy/folders/Jing/media/4c4777b9-e2c0-4c73-a00f-8270a43d17ee

Holding long from 1074, I have a target of at least 1080. I think we will see about 1085-1088 though.

Europe is going up, relentlesly. Estoxx50 at 2.612,64 +3,78%

This is pushing US up as well.

Bob the Horse has been quiet the last two days. I truly hope the kerfuffle with katzo7 didn't give him a distaste for posting here. I'd trade a hundred posts by anyone on this board for one post by Bob the Horse. The man has sober insight.

I am checking in occasionally. I have nothing much to add. Still long estoxx from 2450 on May 7th. Target 2800. I don't know if I will short there but I know I will not short before there. I am being quiet because:
a) I am trying to prevent any shorter time horizon thoughts messing with my core position;
b) this is a big piece of meat I am aiming for , i.e.14% move but it's probably counter-trend so it's hard to hang on to. I prefer keeping my own counsel at these times - immersing myself in a msg board in which everyone else has the opposite position just makes it confrontational which is of no help to me.
c) I have been burying myself in fundamental research because my core belief is that equities are driven by the momentum of nominal GDP. Charts capture the historical perception of that and put numbers on it but there is an edge to be gained from macro analysis as you can predict how these perceptions will evolve. Contrary to what the CNBC talking-heads are now saying, a lot of my analysis says this market is going up a lot because the US economy is going to accelerate in the second half of this year, i.e. the exact polar opposite of the H2 slowdown that is the current consensus. But not everything I look at is bullish - maybe 90% so I am keeping an open mind. At the very least, I want to see some of what I see reflected in equities before I would risk getting short. That means 2800 which would be around 1150ish I would guess on S&P. But Estoxx is more important - Europe is the driver, S&P will be where it will be.

Thanks for sharing all that.

Thanks for your contribution - clearly Europe is leading up for now & it's useful to hear what you have to say about it - LJS

Agreed. I respect his analysis whether or not I agree with him or whether he's right or wrong. He consistently gives insightful reasoning behind his opinions. He is also very level-headed. I think he'll be back. He has been fairly quiet lately, anyway.

Saw that. We are also getting strong readings from market internals today. Looks and feels like a C wave.

4 short@ 1079.25,now full boat katzo!

I knew you were going in then.

MACD on 15 min /es is not yet confirming the fall but it getting closer

See it, I went in too early.

did put my stops 1082.5,if new hi think straight 1089

Shifted from long to short over the day. DAX is at the upper line of a daily triangle and s&p close to the downsloping trendline (from late april). We could push through, but fairly easy to place stops here.

One thing that worries me is the very low TRIN readings.

This could get tricky going into 4th of July period...especially if BP really does get that leak capped and controlled here in the next couple of weeks.Oil...and oil stocks "want" to go back up here.- Just cautious thinking...maybe too cautious...but at least we have a trading range going on at the moment.

dude, no way to trade based on 'news'. Read the charts, ignore the news. What makes you think oil stocks want to go up? Why not down? You could think that BP plugging will boost it, or you could think that they are going bankrupt...zero to do with trading, so ignore!

Ok, fair enough, but is the EUR/JPY news, or data? What about copper or the long bond?

I would say data is different to news. One has emotive bias and the other ( if untainted and from a reputible source) can at least be used in an structured manner to improve your win/loss ratio. All i meant is that trying to trade the news is a mugs game. A reading of 3.4 today is great, market goes up 2%, then a few months later, same 3.4 is viewed as massively negative and market falls, sure news can drive the market, but trying to apply a method to a trade based on news is hard, if not impossible...well at least for us unconnected and unable to get news in advance plebs.

I totally get your point, and the argument for TA generally - thx for the response - point is, if the Euro is in the news, and that brings intervention, it affects the charts directly doesn't it? I mean, I had that experience recently losing on a play - EUO - when news brought intervention..

Copper needs to break this line for the move down to gain traction . . .

http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/0f9df5bf-4468-4d97-bab3-4735d92512d3/00001542.png

LJS,

I think what Aussie meant was to stay away from news that can be Spun. For example IMO, CNBC can be the kiss of death for a trader because all they do is play on emotion because that's what drives ratings.

OTOH, the items that you mentioned - price of copper, Euro/JPY, or Long Bond are what they are and don't need to be spun.

I've been net short for a few months now...and I hear ya. Where I think we might go in July...has nothing to do with where I think we'll be in December. I"m not a day trader...but I"m also not playing 2011...just yet. Right now 1070 is the big # for me...and then 1040. Gotta keep my eye on 1100 though too at the moment. At least it ain't boring. We shall see.

+1

My proprietry sixth-sense indicator is telling me that high of day is likely in now.

Seriously though, this time its different, i hope not to Bear-baited like July09/Feb10

Agree. I've been trading the swings successfully for the past week byt decided to exit all positions and take a rest yesterday pm despite the excellent risk/reward on the long side before close. Darn.

I see two scenarios aligned with ES: 1) we go higher from here and VIX gets down to 25 and b) we fold by EOD and VIX bounces off 30.

I'm back long in GLD as the gold bugs will push this crap higher. G/L! :)

katzo...where is the bears?still sleep?

Here sir. . .

IMO the bears will hang the bulls out to dry soon. When is big question.

Short @ 1074. SL at HOD. Target? WTF knows. LOL

im waiting for 1076.25 @ESMO

Who asked me about playing EW tops and bottoms? Refreshed and lost your post. Yup 68 is a good level but in this market most of move may be over as it is sloping up ST and oscillating.

IMO just wait for a break one way or other. This traps you. Look at me levels I posted earlier.

Me.

I also refreshed and lost your levels posted earlier. Want to repost them at your convenience?

Another important thing to note -- volume is WAY up this morning. On a 30-min chart, SPY volume this morning is well above volume at yesterday's close.

No surprise - as I suspected watching the Zero late in the session yesterday that drop was a ruse.

Yeah Mole - I was wondering if that was a divergence, of a kind - flat zero with a sharp price movement ..? I mean the Zero would seem to be undercutting the price trend implicitly -

SPX cash and SPY are quite the opposite. The NASDAQ has been the hardest hit in this correction, so perhaps that has something to do with it.

Whoops. Meant to reply to gsavli.

volume in NQ is the lowest this week, so far.

Normally I don't try to plot support/resistance on ^VIX because of its odd nature, but this is the third time in recent history that ^VIX has failed to break below 30. Interesting.

hi cub, remember what i said yesterday? "did you read my comment on bpspx vs spx:vix?

vix was cornholled yesterday, 35.12 should have held, but all of last week we had some rubberband (failed) vix crashing by the PPT, so I wait, mrs. market has been a harsh mistress for the PPT lately"

as long as we don't make the trip to 23 we're "safe" "they"'re failling

Since I don't have access to bpspx via TOS, I do not regularly view it. Would you mind posting charts whenever you refer to it?

I might, but EOD $BPSPX is available at stockcharts (throw in my hamster bands and do watch at least the 3 previous years)

This weekly BB(468,0.618) is the one to watch, right?

So, as long as 29.30 holds on $VIX, PPT is failing?

http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_wolves/folders/Jing/media/416ddb24-8793-4ac6-9f32-315057c61cb9/00001544.png

never followed that one, it is exacly the opposite, they pushed it below support (several times)and it bounced right back

im looking to go full boat sort if we break 1076 katzoif

I tink I get your code now, sort=short
What does long =?

dont know that word really....

ROTF . . . You bear.
I am watching 78 ES U0

My understanding of hyperlipideamias are that mild conditions, that are related to diet, can obviously be controlled usually by diet/lifestyle, but more serious/familial (inherited) conditions will require medications (statins) to bring levels into acceptable levels.

today started in a very bullish way, but this was just too quick and frankly, i wouldn't be surprised now, if we breach that 1040 today.

Naw... well, at least not before the Euro close. ;-)

Spain is kicking the can, and this morning's move was bona fide bullish. I can still see the market getting ravaged in the next couple of weeks if there's another event in Europe, but like I posted yesterday afternoon, every would-be contrarian market caller is out calling for a bottom at 1040 because of "record bearish sentiment". Obviously that's the epitomy of stupidity because THERE HAS BEEN NO BEARISH SENTIMENT IN THE LAST YEAR, so of course we have record bearish sentiment!

Market gone wills - geeez - see that's why I keep telling everyone to focus on the long term.

I am not a fan of days like today. Not because It's bullish, but because it gaps, doesn't fill the gap, and goes in the direction of the gap before the first 30min.

So now, I'm not going to short this 1070 area, we will probably see 1080, and I don't want to go long until 1070 because who knows where we'll be between now and 3pm. I'll give it till 11am and then go wash my car or something.

ST longs be careful here. Could be wrong. . . Break 74 not good.

keep looking for 1030...

im sort 2 @1078.5

??
Your code is worse than mine.lol