Target Reached

Okay, so I missed the target by $1.23 – can you find it in your heart to forgive me?

Before I turn into a pumpkin let’s revisit our wave count and get our bearings straight so everyone is on point for Tuesday’s session. I also have a brand new toy for my stainless steel rats – come and get it!

Updated wave count and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. The rest of you guys will have to wait until tomorrow – sorry. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed or Evil Speculator Gold or geronimo/ES or evil.rat/ES to view this content.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010 at 1:12 am and is filed under Elliott Wave Theory, Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

molecool

¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸
ricebowl

SPX is being contained by the lower bollinger on the 30-min. I would like to see an SPX rally to 1109-1110 to widen the bands a bit more and then a nice drop.

Also, Disqus is sucking hard and forcing me to reload the page after every post in order to post again.

Edit: for clarification, this is what I would *like* to see but not a prediction. If we don't come up a little bit, then we will stay trapped by the lower bollinger, and there won't be any real selling today.
Tronacate

Next the NQ needs to get in line.......
BobbyLow

Russell and TNX making new Lows
Tronacate

There goes the Russell........confirms the trannies and ES
aussiebinlaughin

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/americas-new-budgetless-reality-betrayal-american-taxpayers-says-republican-house-leader-joh

Is he implying that manipulation is about to go parabolic?
Tronacate

Need the TF to take out yestersays lows......trannies have certainly gotten beat up
Clint

This market looks like pissed-off doberman tied to a pole with dental floss. It doesn't look like it should hold...but so-far... it is. The 'close'...and then tmrw should be real interesting.
amokta

Dental floss is stronger than steel wire?
BobbyLow

LOL

http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20050922120735/memoryalpha/en/images/thumb/e/e2/Doberman,_Random_thoughts.jpg/106px-Doberman,_Random_thoughts.jpg
jigdaddy

i really hope this fractal doesnt play out..

http://www.screencast.com/users/jigdaddy/folders/Jing/media/b60b27e4-3223-42bf-b8f3-025831f73a7e
steveo77

I have shorted based on ---that if the support at the 38 Fib breaks, the declines could be substantial.

Also, this "push me pull you" effect with the Euro is causing multiple areas of support, but also breakage of support.

i.e. the SPX can provide energy to drive the Euro down, and vice-versa.

Bizarro world arbitrage and hedging is making this game tough to play, as well as the outright corruption and ability of single source, or multiple large source intentional ramp up and down control of the markets

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
amokta

i dont know what spx future im looking at (1month?) -its showing 1103/4
ricebowl

Interestingly the NASDAQ is still in green. For me to believe the selling, I need to see the NASDAQ take the lead.
Clint

True and I agree. But those $TRAN being down 110 pts are like having a couple of anvils around the markets neck.-I've been surprised everyday for the last month by something.
DudePlunger

Well there goes yesterday's low and the overnight low. Let's see if we get some follow through.
n2thezonez

just need the Euro to lead. SPX doesn't much like to blaze its own trail these days.
Clint

Now this is a hard "push". Should be interesting from here.
tooshort

baby divergence on the ZL? past recent low but not lower on the ES ...yet?
tooshort

there it goes!
jigdaddy

i think we need to break thru 1103 with some gusto...
amokta

Get ready to rumba!
any reason for HTZ falling?
sloth_bear

We may get stuck there for a bit more days before the main channels meet each others:
http://screencast.com/t/NDY2NWU1OTgt
Tronacate

Interesting drop leaving the dollar wandering.......decoupling here?
Scoops

Bears got killed as we all know. Here is AAII from June 17.

http://aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results.cfm
Clint

Wow that May 27th figure of over 50% bearishness certainly had to be part of the problem not being able to bust that 1140 on 2 different tries. Will we get another chance anytime soon ?
Scoops

New survey out soon. We will see.
Clint

Of course I meant $SPX 1040 !
ricebowl

Back to April 8th. Not terrible.
tooshort

knee jerk reaction to the oil drilling news
ricebowl

30-min bollingers are widening again, but that 2-point rally just destroyed the possibility of the bears being able to take advantage. That was ridiculous.
Clint

Yea..another "save". Too many of those to count in the last month.
jigdaddy

they just dont want to give up 1103 on ES do they!
Tronacate

What got into DO???
Clint

Back to some important "support" levels here....especially $SPX (1109). If those "trannies" ( -100pts ) keep falling...I don't see how they hold her here.-Interesting market...got both bulls and bears squirming.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

this drop seems to be exhausting without going nowhere
BobbyLow

40% of Average Daily Volume with 2 1/2 hours to go. This chop is making me sea sick. :)

I'm tempted to get a little more short but have managed to hold off. As Scoops said, the 10 Year is talking to me.

Don't they have a big auction today? I'm going to check.
BobbyLow

5 Yr Note tomorrow 1 PM along with FOMC Statement @ 2:15 which will say Economy although fragile is showing signs of improvement yada, yada, yada.

We are leaving rates unchanged for the imediate future because our economy cannot grow with interest rates at more than 0 and .25% and because . . .

And the market as a forward looking discount instrument looking at the year 2027 will rally around the Fed. . .
DudePlunger

Sounds about right.
sloth_bear

We are bouncing on my upper green channel on EUR/USD which seems to hold, my 1st target as long as it is not breached is 1.2241. This may be the end of B.

http://screencast.com/t/MGI4ZmVkNz
Scoops

Break of 1108.07 SPX gives me an initial target of 1009. Stop at 1121.02.

This would be the 3rd signal, first 2 stopped out.
Scoops

This is really short term. But goes with poss triangle breakdown on ES.

http://db.tt/uwRRNG
spudthorpe

Here's my take on the triangle. My best guess is it is b of B of 2, and c of B of 2 will break down to the 1090 range. http://www.screencast.com/users/Spudthorpe/folders/Jing/media/de5a11dc-9604-4bde-8ebd-abf636eb8602
Scoops

Yep. I'm short into this, prepared to get faked out though.
Scoops

Volume spike in the 10 year.
Scoops

Looks like some fun is about to start.

http://db.tt/fBkc22
ricebowl

That triangle already broke down on SPX cash. Maybe when it breaks on /ES we'll get some selling. Good eyes.
Tronacate

Still inside day on TF.....
bshah

what is TF ? In scottrade it is showing "Thai Capital Fund Inc"
Tronacate

Russell futures
Long_John_Silver

Thx, this puzzled me too (not a futures trader)
Tronacate

Tropical depression building south of Puerto Rico....everybody have their BP lotto tickets?
amokta

my take is that we should not be willing more disaster for oil spill (not that you are as nature does its own thing!) I am short BP,not in the hope of more disaster, but in view of the fact that claims for damage etc will be a burden on BP price/assets etc
ricebowl

Remember that US assets are separated from UK assets via a shell company. If the US tries to extract too much in damages, then BP (UK) will simply write it all off.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

if BP dared doing that Orambo would find al caeda in the uk and inv...liberate the UK
ricebowl

Looks like he won't have to:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2436-Uh-Huh-So-It-IS-A-Liability-Limiting-Thing.html
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

20 bis (if it is a "nothing more and we keep the other fields") is a cheap 1 year profits, and if properly tax refundable will be paid for by taxpayers
ricebowl

Is NYSE:BP purely ownership in the US side of the company, or is it both? If both, then IMO that's a waste of money.
gsavli

today's NQ channel:

http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-F15B_4C20D83F.html
Tronacate

EUO double bottom......
ricebowl

The narrowing triangle broke down. I would normally say we should head to the 1090s here, but not liking the lack of participation.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

took a nap, we bottomed without a true bottom, had a truer top with lower spx but seem to evade making a true bottom.....

ppt reversal?
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

true bottom but high k's and rsi... slow grind down ahead ?
amokta

Sitting Fence meets Resting Bull ?
The market is invariably biased to the upside - for it to go down there has to be some 'reason' - do we have any reasons for it to do so (tech/fundam/sent)?
ricebowl

The problem is and has always been Europe. All of the talking heads are idiots who want to claim that Europe is "fixed", but it's not. Spanish debt is starting to go parabolic like Greek debt did shortly before the collapse. Those are the fundamentals. The real question is what the fund managers who make buying decisions are reading and what the general populace is hearing on rubbish venues like CNBC. The "news" might as well have been prepared by the Iraqi war minister. ("The American infidels were defeated with no loss of life, and they are retreating.")
amokta

Thanks - fundamentals eventually catch up ( i think enron, 1999 stock bubble etc are examples of this). However, shorters (notably options traders) have the problems of 1) being right but still losing money in the target time-frame and 2) missing out on rising price (e.g. so called bear market rally from march 09, which might be a bull market!??)

p.s. bank of ireland dropped 7-8% today
Clint

Well said !
ricebowl

Anyone notice the bearish narrowing triangle? Look at yesterday + today on a short timeframe. We're gliding along the bottom triangle trendline right now.
BobbyLow

Well I don't have anything technical to add but if this market isn't gasping for air right now then I don't know squat.

But since the PTB, made that miraculous stick save in February, my gut is no longer allowed to make major decisions.

I'm constantly checking ZL, and my 15 Minute Live Charts for clues that it is time to make a move. In the mean time, I'm still pretty much market neutral with Longer Term Puts and Shorter Term Calls. Of course for now, Mr. Market will still find a way to nibble at my account through Theta Burn and Lower IV.
Tronacate

I consider this chop some am strength.......expected before the pm
ricebowl

This is cherry-picking Fib levels, but I found it interesting nonetheless:

X = 1109.15 -> 1113.37
Y = 1113.37 -> 1110.10 (78.6% X = 1110.05)
Z = 1110.10 -> 1116.67 (200.0% Y = 1116.64)
ricebowl

I am not an Elliotician, but could this be an A-B-C correction before a larger drop?
DudePlunger

I'm thinking this is either a B wave of Minor 2 or Minor 3 has begun. But it doesn't really make sense that Minor 3 has begun, given yesterday's weak volume on the selloff. I'd like to see what happens when we approach /ES 1090, which was the low of June 15 or that monster rally + breakaway gap we had.

I'm in the camp that thinks we'll go sideways until July 4th. Then we should see where the strength lies, as we have earnings on the way as well as that stress test by the ECB.
ricebowl

The ECB stress tests will no doubt be just as gamed as the Fed's stress tests were. Apparently Lehman was solvent by their own internal tests right up until they blew up, and the same process was used to evaluate our banks. Considering the ECB has a vested interest in propping up the Euro, expect the tests to show that Euro banks are "incredibly solid and well-capitalized".
DudePlunger

Oh I don't really care what the stress tests say, we all know they will lie or fix the numbers (hell I would if I was in their position.) But the pure fact that there will be this news release should result in market reactions.
gsavli

i am curious what will it say re swiss banks. both CS and UBS were operating with leverages from 30 - 50. i can't believe all is well there.
tradingmom

Unfortunately, there will be no real news until something fails spectacularly. Remember our own joke stress tests?
Tronacate

TF..... would like to see a solid break of 653.......then fill gap of 6/13 @ 646
Tronacate

Long QID @ 16.60
Tronacate

A little oversold workoff and then down we go.......need to confirm outside reversal on the TF
DudePlunger

Looks like the bears had their chance to break yesterday's low, but there was too much support and not enough selling between 1106-1109. Nadaq now leading the way higher, approaching its HOD.
DudePlunger

It's all choppy. No follow through in either direction. The simple trade is to sell 1103. The simpler trade is to take the afternoon off. :D.
molecool

Agreed.
DudePlunger

Staying frosty today as per your advice.
BobbyLow

These are choppy waters making it difficult for me to see Shark Fins swimming about. So I'm sitting on my hands for now so I don't get one bitten off. :)
Clint

Pretty much what I'm doing here too. If I had to bet my life on it...I"d bet the in the very short term here...the 'upside ' wins...maybe thru the 4th of july weekend.-Glad I don't have to do that.
amokta

why are we not falling below 1110?
TraderGirl

Patience.
lauradeez

QQQQ's particularly strong today. probably gonna be a snoozer til the FOMC announcement tomorrow
Clint

Agreed !
ricebowl

Three points upside here (target SPX 1115).
ricebowl

Or not. Turned at the 5-min upper bollinger instead of the 30-min upper.
nyxjf

Mole-

Does today's move on Zero nullify yesterday's divergence?
molecool

We only consider divergences during the current trading session - so yesterday's divergence is history.
nyxjf

thanks
tradingmom

$SPX below 200 dma
Tooncez

So when do we call that divergence?
DudePlunger

Big time signal on the Zero and the Lite?
BobbyLow

Be careful of the scale on the Lite. The negative 2 is relatively large but as Mole said yesterday the Signal was not strong at negative 1 so you might need to use some discretion on a relative basis.

Also when we sold off big we have seen -4, -6, -8 etc.

JMHO
molecool

Exactly.

1+
DudePlunger

Good point. I was thinking that, as we haven't seen any large signals the last few days. Let's see how price reacts as we approach yesterday's low.
nyxjf

I was wondering if its malfunctioning.. it's a big signal.
Tooncez

I'd say _relatively_ big.
Onorio

Market up, VIX UP! :D
ricebowl

The only time that that's happened in the last year that I can recall was right before the big drop from 1220.
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

minor top in?
ricebowl

Stalled at the upper bollinger on the 2-min and 5-min. We can still move up, but we need to burn off some time first.
psycho_puppies

I’m just a broke freeloader looking for some free charts and a cold beer, but I’m assuming this post means that wave 2 is complete and we should start a forceful down PDQ.
BobbyLow

News = Noise = Financial News Media Reason for existence.

Everyday is a new reason for this or that all while as has been previously pointed out that on back to back days the same reason is given for the market going up as it is for going down.

This mornings noise du jour from AP:

Stephen Bernard, AP Business Writer, On Tuesday June 22, 2010, 8:38 am

NEW YORK (AP) -- Fresh concerns about Europe's sovereign debt crisis could give investors pause on Tuesday. Stock futures fell modestly, but were above their lows, after the ratings of a major European bank were cut. . .
ricebowl

Thanks. It's hard to sift through the drivel to find the events that actually matter. I saw blurbs about Ireland needing IMF/ECB assistance to continue to guarantee 400 billion EUR of Irish bank debt -- guarantees that are propping up the Irish banking industry in much the same way that TARP propped up the US banking industry.
Guest

No decoder ring for this mere mort but congratulations anyway for hitting your target. You have provided many newbies like me some very helpful information here on your site. Thank you.
molecool

Way too early for congrats - this thing ma still evolve into something more complex.
Bob the Horse

amokta - I would cover your RBS. The UK bank levy is relatively benign vs expectations. Can't see what will drag it down. That and Lloyds shoudl catch a bit of a bid in the UK as ownership of both is pretty low amongst institutions
ricebowl

(Off-topic)

Also, hoping that Mexico and South Africa win their games today. ;-)
ricebowl

They interviewed some South Africans and asked them what the score against France was going to be. They said unanimously: 7-0. Haha...

I heard that Pizza Hut in Ireland is offering 350 free pizzas for every goal scored against France. If you go to the website, then you can print out a coupon which you can redeem for a free pizza.
chronographics

Shit, I am going to have to come a long way to redeem it :-)
chronographics

Yep and NZ on Friday they deserve it :-)
gsavli

and that England bites the dust tomorrow, they also deserve it. :)

oh, and France handball team too.
molecool

A bunch of divas - they should be ashamed...
ricebowl

No sense in getting all worked up here. Bonds are up a meager 0.22%, and /ES is only down 4 points last I checked. It *does* seem to be the start of a new trend, but we need to see yesterday's low broken with conviction in the session today, and we need to see volume come up; yesterday was pathetic. There is still a long way to go for this to be the start of intermediate 3.
Bob the Horse

Just went for a day trade long here (Estoxx @ 2718) ESU0 around 1104. Might just have seen a bit of stop triggering from last nights lows. Will put stop in below there @ 2713.
Bob the Horse

Just took profit at 2737
Long_John_Silver

Congratulations - following your generous dialogue with DudePlunger and others closely - thank you
chronographics

Good risk possible reward, I see some EUR support here at 1.2260/70 and EURJPY at 110.80/00
Bob the Horse

Another reason I am a bit cautious about the downside here is the latest money flow data (Lowry's, etc.) has been pretty bullish. The short-term work is extended but that is a set-up that tends to lead to a dip-buying environment. Lowry's are actually very bullish intermediate-term which I don't share yet but it's enough to make me need a really good set-up to be short of.
chronographics

Well I am just trading short term at the moment mainly EUR (short and nervous :-) ) Just not sure of the Equities, these markets still have IMNSHO the potential to move large in either direction.
catracho

I think you are not alone! many nervous..
chronographics

Yes it's the "many" that worries me still too many people short to make me feel comfortable. Not sure if this correction from 1.18 to 1.25 was all of it, or if we are in a correction to that correction and have another good up leg to come. I shall just be nimble till i see a bit more clarity.
Bob the Horse

Dudeplunger - I was just reading your comments from yesterday and I think you need to start scaling your positions. You are putting too much emphasis on a single level which essentially means you have to be exactly right to make money. Your trade was 98% spot on but you actually lost money. That's just bad execution.

If you think about what you did, at 1129.50 you were targeting a 4.4bps move to the upside and (I am guessing) holding an NDU0 position with stops around 1915 on average, a 134bps move to the downside. So your risk-reward there was atrocious. You were basically risking $1 to make 3 cents.

The way I tend to trade is I view a target level as the point at which I complete the positioning. So you might have a target of 1130 but you are adding a quarter position at 1125, another at 27, etc. I find that makes me emotionally much more neutral as we approach target levels. I used to be almost ready to tear my hair out about whether or not I got filled and it wasn't helping me.
molecool

And most people do not consider slippage on top of it.
captainboom

Bob, in your experience, what do you find to be an acceptable risk/reward?
Bob the Horse

I think if you are trading off a target risk/reward of less than 2:1, it is tough to make money. 2:1, you can make money with a 50% win ratio which I think is a very respectable ratio - a decent trader should achieve that. But even a 33% win ratio would break even (ex costs).
catracho

Gold weekly and daily chart showing some neg divergence on recent rally up

daily chart http://www.screencast.com/t/YWFkMzZmNG

weekly chart http://www.screencast.com/t/ZDNmMTUwZ

BUT gold still in bull trend and would need close below 1100 minimum to signal a change...
Onorio

Market is falling off the plate, europe is selling good news and im addin to AUD short to see the yuan gap close!
Bob the Horse

I'd be a bit cautious chasing any move, volumes are pathetic and market seems a bit lifeless. On the other hand, Spanish bond yields are moving out again. I'm not convinced the risk-reward is great either way right now. A time to keep powder dry I suspect, possibly all the way into quarter-end.
Onorio

Im not chasing any trade i`ve got some setups this morning and i went short. I see AUD closing the yuan gap with no problem, we`re only 50pips away so the risk is limited, i`ll trail my stop if we go bellow that.
catracho

yes AUD on 8 hr looks like breaking trend line...but it is an 8 Hr chart so still a while to see where this bar closes

http://www.screencast.com/t/ODNlMzZlMDMt
Bob the Horse

Sorry, wasn't referring to you in particular, just a general comment.
Onorio

Cool Bob, it was just for not to think im chasing the tape :)
chronographics

Go Onorio!
chronographics

US Bonds making headway on topside (prices), EUR and EURJPY (Now broken the 111.50/60 support level) coming under pressure and so will Equities
amokta

futures down just now
Onorio

$1.23?! Man you`re loosing credits....
chronographics

Nice charts Mole especially the last, one would think if we are in P3 we are in a different environment so I agree we should see this pattern change, looking forward to an update of this chart.
And the prize goes to.... before I claim it - what is it?
steveo77

Noted the ES not totally following the EUR/USD tonight.
chronographics

Hi Steveo, you right but then seems to follow EURJPY more closely anyway of late. Some of these correlations work better on the larger time frames, some just lag a little. Never seen anything last for too long at 100% . Think we are in for an interesting few days...

blog comments powered by Disqus

feed

twitter

spx zero

instructions

poll
- Are you holding long term black swan insurance?
  Gradually building up more.
  
  Just started to load up.
  
  I'm stuffed up to the hilt.
  
  Had to let much of it go.
  
  Theta burn is a bitch.
  
  Just a little bit to be safe.
  
  Waste of money - bottom is in.
  
  Comfortably positioned.
  
  view results
  Loading ...
- polls archive

recent misdeeds

categories
- Bulltard Of The Day
- Economy
  - Inflation/Deflation
- Elliott Wave Theory
  - Spiral Calendar
- Interventions
  - Manipulation
  - TOMO/POMO
- Market News
- Market Outlook
- Market Politics
- Options
  - Volatility
- Program trading
- SWAG
- Trading
  - Bonds
  - Channels
  - Commodities
    - Copper
  - Currencies
    - Dollar
    - Euro
    - FX
    - Yen
  - Fractals
  - Futures
    - Gold
    - S&P 500 E-Mini
  - Indicators
  - Option Strategies
  - Retracement Levels
  - Reversals
  - Symbols
  - Trading Psychology
  - Trend Trading
- Uncategorized
- Update
- zero
archives

swag outlet!

search site

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website, while timely, colorful, and accurate, is not to be taken as financial, legal, tax, psychological or any type of advise. The purpose of this website is to track the progressions of human herd psychology as it is reflected through several financial markets. Any commentary on this page, however useful it may be, is used for illustration, and to inspire thought provoking discussion, and not to be taken as specific trade recommendations. We are not endorsing any site or service, nor are we promoting choice examples as real-life trades. If it sounds sarcastic, it probably is and if it offends you, just don't read it. There are tremendous inherent risks in attempting to trade any market using any vehicle, particularly if it is leverage. Please contact your broker to explain all risks involved in the vehicle you will be trading and any questions you may have. Please consult with your own financial advisor before you tempt fate by following our evil speculation.