Short Symbols Roll Call

I’m starting my hunt for short symbols – please keep reloading this page every 10 minutes or so.

Let’s hope I won’t wind up like this poor guy.

Starting alphabetically (because my watch list does): AGN is on a rampage and may have a tiny bit more to go. If you feel adventurous grab a tiny unit here. But remember – the market needs to prove to you that you are right – probably best to wait for a bit of resistance.

ALTR: Sunday night I was wondering if I was too late with that one but I was wrong, which is a good thing. Now, don’t step in front of a bus here – probably best to wait for resistance as well. BTW, no matter what – get out before the earnings on 7/20.

AMJ – a bit early here – like many of the ones I’m looking at (maybe another reason to think that Soylent Blue is not done yet). Anyway, I’d love this one at 33.50 – if it gets there. Stop above the second diagonal. If it breaks down take profits at 30.

Who dares to slay the beast and live to tell about it? I tell you when P3 has started for sure: When AZO takes a hit – that’s when. Well, I can’t believe I’m suggesting this but AZO may be good for a few handles as it seems to bounce against some upside resistance. But don’t be a hero – if we breach both lines just get out and try your luck on an easier victim.

Another candidate in the small unit department. CF (an old time favorite) seems to have run out of steam a little and bounced off that diagonal line I painted. Keep it clean and set a stop slightly above 75 – it may try to burn a few more shorts and you don’t want throw money into its greedy jaws. Also, I am going to wait until it bounces up a little more – maybe if we get an EOD ramp?

CIB – I have seen worse setups. It’s at new highs and pushing against a diagonal. Be careful however – it may have another up day or two in it – so depending how you play leg in small or wait until you see weakness.

FTI – keep this one simple. Either it shows weakness and reverses or it will bust higher and burn more shorts. Stop around 63.25 – don’t let this one get away from you.

MO – play it now and KISS (keep it simple stupid). Meaning, set a stop above that line and leave it at that. Either it explodes higher here or the current weakness is a sign of more downside to come. I usually don’t love setups like this but I sometimes play them with small units. Only losses can teach me that a certain approach will not work.

Last one for today as we’re about to close. PM – again, keep it simple here and don’t be a hero. This one may touch that line before it turns (if it does, that is).

I have a few good ones left and will be back tomorrow!

Cheers,

Mole

This entry was posted on Monday, July 12th, 2010 at 3:18 pm and is filed under Symbols. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • juju2
    Does anyone disagree that we have a "pipe bottom" on the weekly S&P?
    Bulkowski weekly pipe bottom is the 2nd highest performing chart pattern.
    Would like someone's "second" of the pattern.
  • Guest
    AUD/JPY, after hitting a high of 78.00, appears to have topped and is now falling off a cliff.
  • skynard
    ES falling off a cliff as well and Asia has possibly reached an intermediate point!
  • skynard
    Cheers!
  • Guest
    Thanks, Mole, for the informative charts provided in the prior post; your work is always helpful.

    Looking at /ES just now, I note that prices are at the 61.8% retrace from the 1129.5 high reached way back on June 20. This appears to be a suitable spot for prices to turn down, "earnings season" notwithstanding. Previously you suggested that news be disregarded. Does that apply to earnings as well? My sense given the low volume these days is that folks are simply waiting for the "right" time to bail...like now.

  • The action between 4pm cash close and so far (7pm ET) points towards a pretty large sized gap up tomorrow...
  • DudePlunger
    How often have you seen the same action to the downside, just to be reversed either at 3am or at 7am the other way?
  • Wave_Surfer
    Yep. I stopped counting the times I saw big down moves in after hours futures, going to sleep happy and looking forward to the next day, only to have the next morning greet me like a spiked club to a baby seal head.

    I have not done detailed analysis, but I have many painful memories waking up after going to sleep very hopeful for the next day. I have maybe 2 memories of big down futures leading to a down day. In fact, I had thought about seeing if a big futures move after market was a reliable thing to fade for the next day, but it seemed like a lot of work when I know in the end, it won't be a reliable indicator. I mean does a big down move in futures really lead to an up day over 90% of time? It's probably not that good of a predictor.
  • Where futures are at 8pm ET and overnight is a very different story...

    The movement in futures till 8pm is based on US markets only. Overnight the global markets influence US futures. So it is no surprise that when US traders come onboard again at 8am in the morning, often the story line changes.

    I too have very very painful memories of big down overnight and then near flat open.. Dubai comes to mind.. I had options at that time.. tons of puts... It was so delicious to see es touching 1066 overnight.. by the time we opened it was up to 1078.. in few minutes 1082.. and we fucking closed the day above 1090.. It was impossible to unload any puts at the open.. I still remember the FAZ calls had bid/ask of 1.21/1.96 for almost 5 minutes till ES was above 1083es...
  • average_minimalist
    lol you're predicting the gap tomorrow based on futures at 7pm?? and i thought i was a newbie.
  • You said it right... You are indeed a newbie... Go read my comment again. I never used the word "FUTURES" in my comment. I just said ACTION.

    Even if we limit ourselves to FUTURES, there is a HUGE HUGE HUGE difference between the implications of where futures are at 8pm ET versus where they are at some point during the night...

    The move up in futures after the cash close is decisive.. across the board.. all indices and a ton of individual stocks.. Look at IYR, XLF, commodity names.. all are up across the board.. This is a very broad based move... This WILL be reflected sometime during the day tomorrow, very likely at the open...

    EDIT: I may be wrong tomorrow.. but go back and back test.. esp Friday 8pm close.. If qqqq,spy,iwm, are up 0.3% or more from the cash close... monday is usually a big gap up...
  • average_minimalist
    so you're saying that the buying frenzy between 4pm and 7pm will pick up where it left off at 8am tomorrow?

  • Overnight stuff was just a noise.. See where we are now :-)

    Portugal downgrade of Moody WILL matter.. but not right now. See how the market is reacting differently... It may matter some time today, some time next week.. but it WILL matter... most likely when everyone believes that it doesn't.
  • Ouch - MLMT - you're just going to take that? ;-)
  • elliott_surfs
    /ES shows +2.25, /YM +15.0
    If anything, melt up into earnings. I wouldn't call that a large size gap up at the moment, but it's still early =)
  • Compare ES with the cash close.. often how much ES is up can be misleading because ES may have moved between 4pm ET and 4:15pm ET.
  • skynard
    The question is can the market rally on a gaining dollar and weakening commodities?
  • Yes, but it'll fall the harder when it turns ;-)
  • equity_momo
    Id like to nominate AA , Alcoa , for the short roll call. 11.50 looks like a great set up. With an 11.75 stop this trade should work - nice Beta skew , 2:1 to the downside at least , and youre sitting pretty unless the Chinese decide theyre going to build sh*t for the West for free.
  • amokta
    ewi stu: .....satisfied the requirements of a complete upward correction. The next leg lower should be a strong across-the-board decline. Whether there is a residual upside push near term, we are prepared for the next major wave......should be to the downside.

    relying on this infallible analysis, i will open a futures account asap (whats a margin call?)

  • Graphite
    Interesting that you are looking for "infallible analysis" which would allow you to trade like an absolute moron.
  • Graphite, maybe at SOH you can be rude, but here you better be polite with regulars who are (per house rules, and nature,polite)

    So apologize to amokta or the hamster might use his faithful iron broom and ban you

    best regards

    p.s. no politics, no rudeness(insults, this is ES
  • Graphite
    How is opening a futures account and going short, with no stop except a margin call, based on a short-term bearish count from EWI, NOT "trading like a moron"? I'm not calling amokta one unless he is actually planning to trade in the way he described above (which, admittedly, is probably the genesis of a lot of the EWI bashers out there).

    I will say that it is a bit -- how shall I put it? -- unrealistic, to expect infallibility from any market analyst using any methodology. That's a recipe for disaster.
  • had i read amokta's comiment i might have pointed, aditionaly, to a certain sarcasm that we often have about stu EWI stuff.

    this is a EWT centerd (not exclusive but centered)blog, there is a lot of respect fot Bob (but taking certain 200% 300% short comments cum grano salis)...

    but when it comed to stu from Hosch... well... well.... sarcasm and cynism do show up

    nevertheless use politeness when adressing others

    best regards
  • gsavli
    i think it's called sarcasm ;)
  • Graphite
    Yes, this is why I hinted that amokta was not actually planning to trade that way. And yet, his comment still does read like the kind of stuff you see from EWT bashers (alternate counts?! changing the read based on market developments?! failing to predict the future with 100% accuracy on every count in every timeframe?! OMGZORZ!)

    Anyway I'm sure there will be a major outpouring of love for Hoch if we print some reversal candle or doji tomorrow and start heading downward, the same as there was when the June rally fizzled ....
  • gsavli
    relax, just post a chart or your view of the market or something.
  • EWT bashers bash the theory, we're un-christian, we love the the theory but sometimes bash the particular theorist/praticioner (even here you'll find more counts than in a rosary)

    as for reversal , did you check BPSPX lately? 4 ramp days and not 2 points to show for it, smells of february 2009
  • Graphite
    What did the BPSPX do during the 100 point S&P ramp in September 2008?

    The VIX seems ready to print a lower low on a lower $SPX level relative to the June VIX low. All the bears out there certainly aren't buying many options on this ramp.
  • i think it ramped about 20 full points,

    yes, vix cornholling is a regular treat, but so far support IS holding

    imho of course
  • hell, i take the time to put it slowly and gently and you just ruin the effect with that laconic answer... might as well go into hybernation again
  • gsavli
    lol, sorry, SSH :D
  • just bitching for fun, you beat me by a second on that answer (though i pretenciously prefer my own)

    but i think it's important to keep things civil, i been away for a while and some newcommers don't know the rules (and don't know that the hamster's warnings are like a gentle feather compared to the flail of an angry master mole)
  • LMAO :-)
  • Cerebro82
    quick EUR/USD count. The way I see it a [3] of (ii) is about to play out. Right now just a 3 wave. I am short expecting some weakness, I have a stop above the 1.2610 level.
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/folders/Default/media/818b91ad-cd70-4450-a0e3-7b1cd9a7d14a/2010-07-12-TOS_CHARTS.png
  • Is there some news ? Why did ES run-up so much later after AA report
  • equity_momo
    Purely on AA and CSX. I expect a good squeeze tomorrow and some bears to throw the towel in - whilst i want to use that as a good opportunity to short , i fear things could get out of control on the upside quite easily here. Bears really need to put a brake on this urgently , ie tomorrow , otherwise we're going to get sucked towards 1110.
  • The way it's playing out I'm now seeing 1100 easily. This would stretch Soylent Blue out and the final leg in early August may push us into 1150.

    Yupp - that's what happens when you are unable to breach a trendline at the third attempt - you get squeezed to hell.
  • Fearless
    Mole, look at last years daily chart after the golden cross. The market dropped immediately to touch the 200 day SMA in the days that followed. We have the 50 day crossing below 200 a few days ago and immediately the market ramped up with no volume. That's why I grabbed call options on July 1 when NYMO positive divergence was shown as I knew there would be a re-test of at least the 50 day SMA if not the 200 day SMA. Like I said last Thursday, I expect the 200 day SMA to slam down on it and catch most people off-guard. It may poke above the 200 day SMA a bit, but it should close under it and form a reversal candle on the daily the same way the 880 support was tested.

    My calculation last week pointed to 1090.91 today. Unfortunately this is missed by 10 points. I will stand to lose a bit on my short SPY, but I am totally hedged (I hold both long and short on the individual stocks I trade) and I will sell my calls at the 200 day SMA and ride the short shares down.
  • Fearless - no worries - I grabbed some August puts 15 ES handles ago. I know what's coming...
  • equity_momo
    My worst fears are a repeat of aug - oct 2007. Market had essentially topped in the Summer on sub-prime (now read Sov debt) but the Fed rate cuts and market dynamics managed to put in a marginal high. If that pattern plays out we can touch above 1220? Dont wish to give anyone nightmares , just saying.. (theres a Devil on my shoulder that tells me 1220 was too convenient to be the top and that everyone assuming it was , is just a bad sign.....i try to ignore the Devil as much as possible... but i know deep down there wont be many of us short there and there will be alot capitulating to the long side if that 1220 level gets busted..perfect set up)
  • I think you are getting ahead of yourself - look at the internals.
  • equity_momo
    Internals are dire but have improved. There was a non-confirmation in Dow Theory last week and a positive divergence on the daily MACD thats forming a powerful base and whilst volume remains low we will simply grind higher. Long term i am completely comfortable riding core strategic shorts but there is a case for this squeeze to get very ugly unless we fail at this falling trendline in the next couple of sessions.
  • telacimr
    As of Friday, the levered bears outnumbered the levered bulls 2:1 (asset-wise). This is a recipe for an enormous short squeeze if things didn't change much today. A casual eyeballing of the chart (at sentimentrader.com) seemed to indicate it is the lowest levered bull:bear ratio since the March '09 bottom. Things could get ugly for the bears, real quick.
  • True - but the bulls are running out of steam nevertheless. What you got to ask yourself is this: Will the bulls be capable of squeezing the bears out of the market again? Maybe it won't be price - maybe it will be time. Anyway, many things can happen - depending on what your trading window is you can be bullish or bearish right now. A few days ago I was short term bullish - but right now I would not jump into even short term bullish positions as momentum is turning. The tape will always run the path of least resistance - and it's not clear at this point that path is pointing straight up. Yes, it's a mixed bag but sometimes that's what the market gives you.
  • master Mole, may i point to a further whooping +0.2 on BPSPX....

    seriously, only february 09 had such feeble ramps, and just before the final fall


    feel free to check the fractal yourself, i would
  • jigdaddy
    mole, curious how did evil.rat and geronimo perform in the past few days...did they trade the run up?
  • jigdaddy
    im looking for a retrace to enter a long setup here......it was to easy from 1200 for bears...
  • equity_momo
    Almost in agreement although im sure not everyone is! I would like to add , if 1130 is broken i dont see 1150 as stopping us , that H+S is just tacky and wont hold. We will goto the years highs if 1130 is busted imo.
  • jigdaddy
    ES tagged its 61.8% retrace from the recent lows in after hours
  • yudhisthira
    This morning /TF perfectly tagged the 50% retrace of June 21 - July 7 decline.
    http://screencast.com/t/YjdjMDllNm
  • elliott_surfs
    she's my favorite, unadulterated market choice =)
  • equity_momo
    The old adage of "never short below the 38.2% retrace" - we are half a click from that level (109 on the SPY) for a 38.2% retrace from the Apr high to Jul low , which also coincides with alot of noise on the support/resistance candles.
  • NYADV, NYDEC 60 min

    http://bit.ly/bN75PQ
  • equity_momo
    Mole , that picture is bad karma man. And the dude with the camera knows it.

    Thoughs on AA after hours here anyone? Since last Summer its earnings have always marked the turn - theres a short squeeze in the name the day after and then it leads the market lower.
  • Darkthirty
    Bad karma cause it was a bad shot, slow kill.
  • Horrible kill - that bear suffered.
  • Darkthirty
    Any good alcoholic knows how a bad liver feels
  • gsavli
  • bshah
    AA reported right... and so no reaction... and all day long, f..ing media, blabbering about "Wall Street flat, caution prevails before earnings"..

    What happened..? ooooooooooh.. AA beat by a PPPPPPPPPEEEEEEEEEENNNNNNNNNNNNYYYYYYY.
    Look out...
  • Guest
    What's "Shooting Star" in Japanese?
  • Guest
    Don't blokes Down Under use the word "down"?
  • bshah
    mole...
    a request... will this and few other posts be opened up to us/me ? just asking..
  • After the session ends.
  • WTFed
    Not a heck of a lot of movement to get to your targets on these. More signs. At least this bear is a lot more cautious about "when" these days.
  • Not sure what you mean - explain.
  • WTFed
    waiting for resistance on AGR for example. We're close. More signs from these individual names that we are probably close to a pullback overall.
  • Agreed - if most of them bust beyond my lines it would probably mean that we are looking at a stronger push higher. The daily candle today looks bearish - let's see if we get at least a pull back. After three weak no-vol days it's overdue.
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