Animal House

Poor ole’ bucky truly has turned into the bitch boy of the currency class – or could it just be some cruel initiation ritual before we see the Dollar roar and roam free in the wild again?

Except – thus far any attempts to strengthen the Dollar (i.e. weaken various quote currencies) aren’t working so well – its been clinging for dear life around the 75 mark.

That symmetrical triangle is holding up thus far but let’s keep an eye on the 73.75 mark, which preferably should not be breached. I must point out however that an ending triangle or diagonal is rare – if it happens then expect a violent push to the upside. AFAIK the odds usually support a drop lower (i.e. continuation pattern) before a snap back. So if you are trading the Dollar get positioned on a breach of either the upper or lower boundary.

Of course the Dollar’s perennial pusillanimity has greatly favored our commodity trades:

It’s very hot and black as it just passed our first target range and after breaching the 100-day SMA is apparently making a b-line for T2. I would take partial profits here and maybe keep a lottery ticket in anticipation of 295.

Let’s add some sugar to the brew (yeah yeah – I can do this all day) – we saw some support after a failed NLSL test and then got confirmation after a close above our NLBL at 28.69. Heck there was even a retest – and today it was off to the races with a strong push toward T1 near the 31 mark. I would probably call it a trade as holding out for a few more ticks doesn’t justify holding over the weekend (especially if you used options).

It’s a boring session thus far and I really don’t have too much to share at the current time – no setups I really feel hot about, so let’s not force things. Equities could swing either way and there’s not too much to do until we see some resolution early next week. So I’m just going to shut up and call it a week – if I see a tantalizing entry I’ll let you guys know right away. Enjoy your weekend!

Cheers,

Mole