Easy As She Goes

Seems like the seasonal winds continue to favor the bulls as we keep testing the coveted 1300 mark despite lackluster NYSE sessions. On a short term basis we now have a decent chance of pulling back before a push higher. The daily is not showing us that much but the weekly is a lot more forthcoming:

That upper 25-week BB line should be good for a red candle before probably proceed toward SPX 1400 – T2 on my monthly panel. My volume profile chart is not showing me much mojo above 1310 or so – not impossible they gap into that but I think it’ll take a bit more time. In any case – watching the AUD/JPY and the spoos remain key for avoiding any NYSE open surprises.

You may recall that late January usually favors the bulls for a week or two. The only problem with timing here is that everything appears to be seasonally late this time around. We got our ‘Santa Rally’ in late December into mid January and thus it seems to me we’re running a tad behind common seasonality. Not that trading would be that easy to begin with – granted ;-)

Alright – once more a few FX goodies for my intrepid subs below – I keep telling you that the real fun is happening outside of equities right now:


More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) to view this content.
Cheers,

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 18th, 2012 at 3:31 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • Joe_Jones

    LOL!

  • Joe_Jones

    LOL!

  • Anonymous

    SPX losing strength. Being above 1303 only briefly is too obvious. In other news who is going to watch Real Madrid vs Barcelona? Me.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Count me in.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    /es is always losing strength.  right before it takes the next step up. ;-)

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/7ef481e7-808e-424e-9540-53bc151f6339/2012-01-18_1530.png
    And in my attempt to line up toy cars. This pair has been negatively correlated to SPX. It is still in upper BB. IMO not good for SPX if this toy car line up (correlation) holds.

  • Anonymous

    New bull?

  • Anonymous

    Sweet! Im watching it on ESPN 3 streaming, have you seen that commercial yet for the Wisconsin Badger on the computer, so funny. 

  • Anonymous

    Badgers taste like chicken!  (so do Wolverines…)

  • jigdaddy

    certainly want you to believe that

  • Anonymous

    And humans.

  • Anonymous

    LOL! I believe! 

  • Anonymous

    Holding my /ES short, stop in. 

  • Anonymous

    Key level in EUR/USD. Approaching last Fridays highs of 1.2875 before it got pummelled down to 1.2625.  Trading back up to 1.2855 now.  Should be influential in whether SPX gets thru the 1310 level. Or not.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Goooooooooooooooooooooooól!!!!!!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GG is looking for an extreme move overnight.

    http://i39.tinypic.com/fmm77p.png 

  • Kudos

    Interesting settlement strength shown on zero

  • Anonymous

    thanks for that , loaded espn3 , very good.
    but I am for Barcelona ;-)

  • Kudos

    espn3 is great, as is Barca

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ????????????????????????????????­??????????????

    D   A   I    L   Y      Z   E   R   O     H   A   S      B   E    E   N      U   P   D   A   T   E   D

    ????????????????????????????????­???????????????

  • Anonymous

    You see it going to 16.25…..holy cow!!!!

  • Anonymous

    Turkey doesn’t even taste like chicken.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    time.  not price.
    I should have made that line vertical all the way.

    yes, bottom calling is bad.
    but, if price is outside a certain bollinger far enough.. speculate!

  • Anonymous

    that was a weird bar on the AUD/JPY.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Check out CBIS – what are they smoking?? Oh, never mind…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Inside candle on JNJ.

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO!

  • Anonymous

    Lol gg and I am with you on the bb play!!

  • TwinTurboRX7
  • Anonymous

    Neg div?

  • Joe_Jones

    You call this news? ;-)

  • TwinTurboRX7

    Isn’t news definition is “dissemination of opinion”? hahaha…

  • Joe_Jones

    The name of the author’s blog shows clearly his bias. If he is a trader he should be well broke by now.

  • Fibz

    crap, no more ding dongs and ho hos.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no sweat.
    that Branding Value alone is worth money.
    some food manufacturer WILL buy it up.

    ps. Sears is now WMT’s beyatch. funeral arrangements justa matter of time.

  • Anonymous

    Shorted /CL & HG on the gap up.

  • Anonymous

    Damn! What about those Twinkies:)

  • Anonymous

    Tragedy!

  • Anonymous

    Hmmmm DX looks like its at support. Might be a good time.

  • Anonymous

    If DX holds I might join ya.

  • Anonymous

    Damn thing lost support, thought 81 would hold.

  • Anonymous

    Oooop! There went AUDJPY:)

  • Joe_Jones

    like a trap door :-)

  • Anonymous

    There seemed to have been a good divergence in zfx

  • Anonymous

    Yes, looking at the hourly,

  • Fibz

    hammer on EUR/AUD hourly

  • Anonymous

    Ya, every long today.

  • Anonymous

    Unemployment news.

  • Anonymous

    Dont see 81 as support. Draw a trendline on DX on daily for past few weeks.

  • Anonymous

    Dont see 81 as support. Draw a trendline on DX on daily for past few weeks.

  • Anonymous

    Somebody shoot /ES  will ya!

  • Anonymous

    Hahaha. Dont worry time will come when it comes down. But remember I have been telling you for past few weeks when the dollar is rallying money moves from foreign currencies into USD and some of it will move into equities.

  • Anonymous

    So for the past few months you were better off shorting emerging markets, commodities metals etc instead of shorting ES.

  • Anonymous

    bru it is at 1301. Not exactly running away to the upside.

  • Anonymous

    Amazing, am liking commodities over /ES (period).

  • Anonymous

    Don’t like lingering. That spike in /GC & /HG didn’t help:)

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    http://www.peaktheories.com/self.php?id=865 Of course Look at the beautiful downtrend while USD is in uptrend. I just feel like you are shooting the wrong beast.

  • Anonymous

    Ah, caught ya! Well then sir. Cut out now if you do not your position, and set somewhere else with  trading setup.

  • Anonymous

    If I’ve seen anything recently, it’s that seasonality holds little value for me.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Nice report!

  • Anonymous

    Looking like as they say “Sucker move”.

  • Anonymous

    EUR/JPY is retesting its daily NLBL. Good chance to get positioned here, not sure about the stop though, support clusters are a good 100 pips away and we may see a retest of that low.

    @AMCabrera:disqus  What’s your take on EUR/AUD? Looks like a potential bottom to me and I’d be willing to take an RTV buy setup if it presents itself.

  • Fibz

    i’ll have to short it if it doesn’t break the high of that candle in the next few bars.

  • Anonymous

    Did you guys just see that huge spike on /es?  That was nuts.

  • Anonymous

    Big volume spike at the same time. 385 on the prior bar, and 7,042 on the spike, according to TOS.

  • Anonymous

    yep, a lot of stops.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    They’re trying to bang the tape above a volume hole. I don’t think they’re going to succeed in this round – plus AUD/JPY is not backing it up.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/641de7a4-f85b-49f3-b7b4-fa396b0a232a/2012-01-18_2210.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/9232c839-32fc-4ca9-b9c3-e266f1d61a54/2012-01-18_2212.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/a79d2fd8-8ecd-4b5e-a412-4d2a1bd2bb5b/2012-01-18_2213.png
    If it can clear and get on the other side of BB I will continue the guerilla action on this pair, meaning going in every .50 .00 handle. I have already cleared my buy order at .2350 I had. Im not waiting for .2400 to clear . But let me also point out that the BB (20,1) 4hr chart is already calling for sucker move. And one hour looks stable enough not like the action Jan 12 showed.

  • Anonymous

    Try speculative short here to fade the move?

  • spicestory
  • http://www.investingcontrarian.com fresbee
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We don’t trade the news – ever.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    URL broken mate.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, Madrid got its ass kicked – did you watch the game?

  • spicestory
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Beware if short EURUSD..

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IGCJ2D2HV62STDQVTYYZU4Z53Q Simplemente

    Barcelona plays the best soccer of the history. Mourinho always dominated by Mourinho. Greetings from Spain, Mole and if you need help with spanish, you have only to say it.

  • Anonymous

    Yes I did. I love the commentary from the announcer when Ronaldo scores the first goal. It was so funny!! If I repeat it in English it wouldn’t sound as good. And what is up Mole all these Spaniards on here. Jeez..Is this place the UN of trading forums? Americans, Germans, Spanish, and English, any French?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Over the first 11 months of 2011, plain-vanilla savings and checking accounts
    attracted eight times the money as stock and bond mutual and exchange-traded
    funds, according to data from market research firm TrimTabs.The pace
    accelerated to nearly 13 times from September to November, the most recent month
    for which data is available
    “Where Investor Money Is Going: ‘Under The Mattress’”, www.cnbc.com, January 17, 2012.

    So Joe P is missing out on the rally…as usual..time to sell when they start putting it back in!  Psychology.

  • Anonymous

    Any one notice the SKEW is flying high at 130.78 near the tops in April and July.

  • volar

    Amen. and VXV/VIX ….

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you should throw that into the about link Master.

    http://evilspeculator.com/?page_id=6 

  • Anonymous

    Good observation, it basically exploded the last few days. Meanwhile, the VXV/VIX ratio has been falling since the end of December which would suggest the MMs are starting to price in more short-term volatility.
    VIX/VXO looks a bit less clear at the moment.

  • volar
  • Joe_Jones

    Is everybody dead?

  • Anonymous

    Just… don’t… trust… this… market.  Took the break low of yesterday’s inside day on JNJ with a small lot. Sitting in cash with the rest, so getting some other work done.

  • Joe_Jones

    Yep it’s a foregone conclusion that the same ones will get rape all over again

  • Joe_Jones

    AAII: still plenty of bulls out there
    http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    set my reverse plays to buy (short) at daily extremes, in a blowoff reverse play.
    no blowoff? no (short) buy.  melt up be damned. :-|

  • Joe_Jones

    hourly looks like a blowoff to me

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    2nd hour looks like 1st hour to me.
    but that’s what makes a market.
    (need to pierce bollinger upper limit)

    http://i42.tinypic.com/24l4mpw.png 

  • Joe_Jones

    OK I follow you

  • Anonymous

    USD/JPY long seems to be in play: 77.16 right now with a daily NLBL at 77.03.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    when SPY starts moving, I look for fan line destinations.

    http://i43.tinypic.com/vsnkw4.png 

  • Anonymous

    Yea that nightie night from yesterday is wearing out. 

  • Joe_Jones

    First time I see equities leading currencies. Unreal.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Should not be long…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    equities are a side show.
    if CScott is right, and he usually doesn’t give a sh!t, cause he has setups either way!…currencies are smarter, IMHO.

  • Anonymous

    mmm. I wouldn’t say that. AUD/JPY is really elevated. 

  • Joe_Jones

    That’s what I thought all along. While EUR was dumping, equities melt up higher. Now EUR is catching up with the stocks.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, I try not too hard to get the whole picture.
    you know, the tape will tell the story…until it stabs you in the back.
    thieves!

  • Joe_Jones

    I want to believe you…. :(

  • Galazkiewicz

    The recent advance in stocks looks a lot like the short covering rallies that CS talks about- moving along the upper BB, range overlap on the daily bars that makes it appear the rally could end at any time, etc.

  • Joe_Jones

    You are definitively right on that one. Market acts like there is 0 problem with the economy, like back in 2003. Fuck me.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    oh, it’s OpX Thursday.
    (for the dense traders who missed the MLK heads up 4 days ahead of time.)

  • Joe_Jones

    I wonder how many shorts left out there. AAII says not much. 

  • Anonymous

    Hey GG my puter cuts off your chart…..would the next fib be 133 or so?

  • Galazkiewicz

    I saw a chart recently that showed short interest on the NYSE at a 1 yr low.  So, who knows.  But, sure seems like it’s powered some of the rally thus far.

  • Anonymous

    Well I have decided for it to come out of retirement…I have taken a position in the AUD/USD, but Im short.

  • Joe_Jones

    what about fresh dumb money?

  • Anonymous

     They’re all getting paid.

  • Anonymous

    they were short the last hundred points on SPX :)

  • Anonymous
  • Fearless

    In the big picture view, the monthly long setup that Scott mentioned on the first trading day of the year has been validated.

    In the short term view, we’re hitting the volume pothole that you mentioned, and the SPX is hovering around 78.6% Fib retracement level. Is the probability for a reversal high? Yes. Will it be a deep retracement? I doubt.

    The acceleration line on the weekly charts show that the market is moving up strongly. Since the Thanksgiving low the market broke through the 20 week SMA to the upside and closed above the acceleration line ever since. How bearish is that? I say not at all. On the monthly chart, we closed above the acceleration line for at least two consecutive months, and it is now moving up along with the 20 month SMA – the trend is clearly up.

    If I were to guess, I would say that we might only get a sideways or less than 50 SPX point retracement (stopping at the acceleration line). Past late January/early February, the next reversal point should be mid-March. The market might already be above 1370 by then, and if that’s the case, no one should be holding long term shorts for 2012 due to the fact that the yearly inside bar buy setup will have been triggered.

  • Joe_Jones

    ¡Olé!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Wow!, someone’s looking at my chart!
    special closeup, just for you deags.
    SPY
    http://i42.tinypic.com/jfvl7c.png

  • Joe_Jones

    A long term bull market without QE3? Wow!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Thanks GG!!

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    VIX below 20, the lowest reading since July 2010 and approaching the lower Bollinger. Maybe we’ll see a nice VIX buy setup.

  • Anonymous

    bottom hourlyZL stuck, if someone hasn’t mentioned this

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Anonymous

    Don’t you mean sell signal for equities and the year is 2011?

    VIX did close below lower BB on April 21, closed higher on the 25th, but did not make a higher close (above the 25 close high) untill May 2d. I don’t know if the intervening days of lower close “ruin” the sell signal. Maybe someone with more expertise in the matter could pipe up.

    Interesting that in July (2011) the VIX never closed below the lower BB, though it did spike below on an intraday basis on July 1st.





    Zero Indicator


    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. search warrant


  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Elvis Has Left The Building
    2. Mad Monday Morning Briefing
    3. I Robot
    4. FEAR
    5. Falling Swords
    6. The End Of The Beginning
    7. Not Business As Usual
    8. Time For A Breather
    9. Prepare to be confused
    10. Major Technical Damage




  4. yes we can!



    NinjaTrader
    Kinetick