Three More For The Road

The market is about close – so I better be quick now. Gee – I almost missed this one in all the excitement today:

Gold dropped into support and is now trading at its lower 25-hour BB and a daily NLSL. Either it’ll fall through and get us much lower or we jump higher here on Monday. Not an easy trade but you can be creative in how to structure your trades to either side here. Watch those GC or ZG futures at night!

Just FYI – the weekly panel shows us additional support here. A fall through may have major implications. Thus far I think the long side has a slight favorable bias.


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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Friday, February 3rd, 2012 at 4:57 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Guess everyone’s gone already. Have a great weekend!

  • bshah

    Breaking news .. :::: Market Scores a Touchdown: Dow Hits 3 1/2-Year High; Nasdaq at Highest Since Tech Bubble of 2000 … ya ..

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Muchas Gracias.

  • Kudos

    We got our first signal of +/- 1.5 in a month just now. Interesting that it seems divergent

  • Anonymous

    Its a case of Raging Bull!
    By the way, is Prechter still short?

  • Anonymous

    Even more so. He is short S&P with a stop at 1360 and just came out today with a short on Gold against 1790.

  • Fearless

    If you remember, I called BS on EW P3 back in early October 2011, and I said the market will make new recovery highs.

    Nasdaq has done it. Let’s see what happens with the other ones.

    FYI – The polar bear dipped in a small purely short position near the close, just a small hedge.

  • Anonymous

    Actually, that’s interesting as we now have a Dow Theory non-confirmation. $TRAN is still below its 2011 high, so are $OEX and $SPX. $INDU is above its 2011 high but below the 2007 high while $NDX is above it but below its 2000 high. That’s not bullish for the long-term, but it could of course resolve itself.

  • Anonymous

    For speculators he went short the S&P around 1315 with a stop at 1360. Needless to say we are almost there.
    For speculators he went short Gold today against 1790 spot.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    I`ve been waiting for that gold candle for some time…now it`s just wait for the retest right scott? ;)

  • Fibz

    just noticed a post on a non-trading forum talking about gold/silver and how “they seem to be rising to good a level now and are a historical hedge against inflation for 6000 years”, etc etc.

  • Anonymous

    Still here.  Must work late to pay off risking my life savings going short Thursday. ;)

  • Anonymous

    Thanks F’less.
    Yes, you did say this way back. Always difficult to buy when others are selling!

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the info – lets see if prechter is correct…i mean wrong, yet again!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wanker! :-))

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, I don’t know how that would benefit a futures trader, but heck – it takes all kinds… hehe

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I can’t believe you just quoted the one who shall not be named…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Prechter went short gold near 700 if I recall. Then again at 800, 900, 1000. For a year or so (until I canceled) he was then ignoring it. So good to hear he’s back at shorting it at near 1800 ;-)

  • Fibz

    i just figure chatter about gold/silver among the non-trader crowd starts to fire up around peaks. contrarian sentiment indicator.

  • Anonymous

    Sorry! Its been that kind of day :-)

  • Skates

    Fearless: what did you do again?!?!?!?! I cannot believe I just read what I did!! ;)

  • Anonymous

    Getting a little jittery here and I think I will have to read some of the previous posts again. RTV sell seems to have failed and I think, as per Scott, a failed signal gives a good push to the other side. 5 & 20 EMAs are rising. AUDUSD, NZDUSD seem to be hugging the upper (20,2) BB. As Mole mentioned, CAD has that support on that daily BB, but the hourly BB is having that violent divergence and any more push down could take out that daily support.

    Got out of my Indian equity longs. Only 1 contract outstanding and will add if it goes up.

    Mole, Can you write some more on the Net Lines. That is something I am still not clear about.

  • Joe_Jones

    Next week we’ll find out how good Tom DeMark is in the top calling business:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-20/demark-says-s-p-500-may-reach-1-342-by-next-week-before-falling.html 

  • EvilTrader

    Im short too, marginally underwater. I see a lot of divergences, too many to be ignored, including $NYMO the McClellan osc, not reaching new highs but placing a nice bearish diverg. 

    I have to say based on historical data, we have 60% odds for a +2% gain in equities against  40% odds for a >4% correction, so we get a negative expected return and thats my short rationale.

    As a matter of taste, so far i see this market playing a bit like 2009 bull run, and we´ve got our corrections then, and they werent shallow.

  • Joe_Jones

    Add to that extremely bullish sentiment
    http://www.sentimentrader.com/

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I wrote this post.

  • Anonymous

    Tom DeMark is the real deal, no bullshit

  • Anonymous

    Hungry, it didn’t fail it was never triggered by a break of the daily low. Personally I made an error in jumping the gun and getting short.

  • Anonymous

    exactly

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    I know it’s not news, but I did find it interesting to see VIX rising for most of the day yesterday.  We shall have an interesting Sunday night seeing what the FX market makes of all of this before the open on Monday.  Eventually, the coyote falls when he runs off the cliff:  just a question of when his momentum ceases to carry him!

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    But scott is the RTVS man :)

  • Fibz

    might look to buy some NBG on a dip.

  • Anonymous

    how’s sugar looking ? looking bullish ?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Did you get back in long? Or stay short for some more time?

  • Anonymous

    thats good i guess..

  • Anonymous

    Yes, correct. It has to trigger and then fail. Right.
    As per jumping the gun, I was asking the same thing when you mentioned taking it near the top and risking a few pips. For myself, I have been consciously trying to avoid reversal trades and take only With Trend ones.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That was me actually. And quite frankly – it wasn’t a big deal. A few ticks lost, so what – we had a ton of setups lately that went all the way. I suggest we stop obsessing about a failed setup and move on ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, I want to add that I recommend OTM puts – lottery tickets basically. If you bet a significant portion of your account then you took on too much risk as I was explicit about saying that we will most likely get stopped out on this. Remember that? I was rather clear on that end. Low probability – high potential reward.

  • Anonymous

    Naa, no one is obsessing. Am just trying to be correct in my understanding. As Scott says, 1 of the many set ups that one takes. And it is all probability.

  • Anonymous

    Better plan Hungry. I fucked up on this one, not because of the losing trade, because of breaking my rules

  • Anonymous

    Fuck no. One of the problems of making an error is that it can start a chain reaction. 

    I fly paragliders, which is an inherently dangerous thing to do, but where I live I can literally fly off the roof of my house. Anyway, virtually all deaths come from a chain of events, where one little mistake causes a pilot to get flustered and forget all the stuff he knows, making a series of compounding errors which eventually result in the bad call that kills you.

    Basically the same thing happens in trading. When I make a mistake, I don’t run from it, or try and trade out of it. I take the first loss I can, and don’t think about getting back in.

    I will be out as soon as the market opens tomorrow morning Australia time. I know the odds favor a pullback, but finessing an exit here is inviting stupid trading. 

    It is more important to me to trade well after an error than try and minimize my loss, since that very action implies that I was unwilling to take the loss in the first place, which is a KPI of losing traders.

  • Anonymous

    Im still obsessing about my error!

  • Anonymous

    Ok thx. I will wait for next setup.

  • Anonymous

    Yeah. Looks like we might get an better overstretched market soon. With a better setup. 2-3% of account for these puts sounds good to me.

  • Anonymous

    Never underestimate the importance of Grease, without it, the eurocar might suffer cv-joint failure.
    http://www.lcool.org/technical/80_series/birfield_repack/Image11.jpg
    http://www.lcool.org/technical/80_series/birfield_repack/Image7.jpg

  • Fibz

    yeah, wheel’s starting to wobble again… think it might be about to fall off.

  • Anonymous

    Can never tell when ‘news’ matters – seems like Greece is all baked into the Euro-pie, so may be a non-event this time round

  • Fibz

    yea, i was mostly just playing along, but never know when things might actually fall apart.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Zero can now be wired directly into your trading hand?

    http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadget.com/media/2009/04/april09bpm.jpg

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
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    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸





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