All Well On The QE Front

For over a year now I have been telling my stainless steel rats that the real deal is happening over on the FX side. The ones amongst you who have heeded my suggestions have been banking coin and most everyone else is probably long gone licking their wounds or is secretly reading this blog in a cramped cubicle at some day job. Boss alert!!! Yes, the market is a cruel mistress but she happens to be extremely loyal to the forces of reality. As a trader you have a choice to make – every single day – you either trade the tape you are given or the tape you want to have. Hey, I don’t make the tape – I just report it – so please don’t shoot the messenger – I’m trying to help.

If you are sitting behind some sucky retail data feed you may be led to believe that the 2010 highs are still standing. However both DTN and Bloomberg are in sync showing new highs at 1370.89 – it is done and the bears will have to face a new reality. There’s that word again – yes, look it up – in an election year run up the MSM has done its very best to obfuscate its meaning behind political correctness, red herrings, socialism for banksters, and quantitative easing on an unprecedented scale. Which brings me to today’s subject.

That’s right – all is well on the QE front. The length of the diagonal support line on the NYSE A/D has now exceeded that of 2011 and thus far there’s no end in sight. As long as Banana Ben keeps those liquidity pumps in overdrive expect higher prices in equities – and also of course when filling up your oversized SUV at the pump.

The type of tape we are seeing may confuse and frustrate the majority of participants but to me it has been crystal clear for a while now. I have continuously pointed to my volume profile chart when making the point that nobody really wants to be long or short right now. As being short is really not an option anymore for anyone but masochistic permabear disciples equity traders cautiously proceed forward – climbing the wall of worry as you will. There is no volume above 1370 and the only way to produce some is to engender spikes like the one we saw at today’s peak. Followed by a shake out of some weak handed piggies – BTFD – lather, rinse, repeat. That’s how the game is played – better wise up – or if you at least want to slide along by the seats of your pants you may consider a Gold subscription.

Speaking of which – I have quite a bit more for the subs – please step into my poorly decorated lair:


More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Monday, February 27th, 2012 at 3:22 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • Tronacate

    Nice stuff mole….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thanks mate – I love to spoil my steel rats ;-)

  • volar

    good work as always mate

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/399968fa-1559-485f-b14d-7a8ea792c3f6/2012-02-27_1446.png
    To GG. Yes. That was a messed up twisted nightie night it seems. The stakes are much higher it seems.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    He’s aliiiiive, aliiiive, I say!!

    http://youtu.be/mOPTriLG5cU

  • volar

     travel kicked my ass- i swear i get searched and no matter how much hand cleaner i still catch a cold for the weekend.

    LUV stock deserves its down trend LOL

  • Anonymous

    Google chart candle confirms 1370.89 too – retail schmuck? :-)

  • Joe_Jones

    The last 5 min candle cleared all doubts about the new high

  • Anonymous

    oh boy.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    SDS, 5min candle – 700K shares.
    getting below $16 has been a….(impossible) bear.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    you do turn off the annoying vent over your head, yes?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I always refuse the millimeter scan which means I am always searched – hence I hate flying these days. Sorry you caught a bug – it’s almost obligatory these days. Last time I flew to Houston I picked up a nasty bug the very first day – trip from hell…

  • Anonymous

    I much rather this close above 1370 than go back below…NO NO no I want to stop being BEarish..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Shit doesn’t work…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    well, at least we now KNOW! ;-)

  • Anonymous

    I think any doubt as to where the top was can be removed now – /ES clearly carved out a new high with the most recent bar.  While I tend to concur with Mole that the conclusion is bears are toast and bull run has more legs on it before it dies, a pull back here (were it to occur) would give us a hanging man beside a doji:  that would be an ominous pair.  We’d need to shed a number of points for that to occur.

  • Anonymous

    1369.99 lol.GG 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    CVX has been 109.99 for-evvvver today. ;-)

  • Anonymous

    Long stop finally triggered – expect market to skyrocket into close

  • Joe_Jones
  • volar

     the irony- i even tried airborne… and yet my fecal matter prob. would go through a screen door right now without hitting a wire

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    dumped longs SPY 137.35
    I now fully expect a gap up tomorrow.
    LoL.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    then there is only one logical solution.
    a full haz suit.
    worked for spock.
    http://startrekchallenge.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/spock-red-haz-mat-suit.jpg 

  • Anonymous

    Today was a odd day. Everything went up today. Even VIX.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (DG does a backflip)

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    My bad. Nobody told me I wasnt supposed to buy VIX with the LTRo cash. I will sell it tomorrow.

  • Anonymous

    LOL!! Every time I picture that to makes me laugh out loud literally.

  • Schwerepunkt

    VIX is green today. Warning sign? People wearing condoms, I mean, buying downside protection. Comments pretty light here too. Top? 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Mole says don’t trust your feelings.
    but, something is not right.
    that’s what happens right beforre the cheesy movie trap is sprung.
    best to trade (without giving a shit) within reason of course.

  • Anonymous

    Waiting for Defcon alerts. Not there yet acording to Mole.

  • Anonymous

    I mean, you know, just that..Ahhh forget it. Im always two weeks ahead of myself anyways. ;)

  • Anonymous

    Regarding NG:
    On the April contract that diagonal has been broken. That is why I expect a pullback to the lower Bollinger at 2.532.

  • Schwerepunkt

    13K seems to be the loneliest number?

    Edit: I can hear Bendover Ben yelling at his office boy: “DAMN! Still no 13K? I had a bet for 10-billion Quat-Loos with Timmy we’d hit it by March 1.”

  • Anonymous

    Some rules i am cumulating :-)
    -dont try to hit jackpot
    -dont be greedy
    -no bias
    -trade the tape as is
    -no counter-trend trading
    -move stops to b/e or better once ‘move’ underway

    I dont know what will happen tomorrow

  • Joe_Jones

    Not the kind of close I expected following the breach of the May 2011 high

  • Schwerepunkt

    Underwhelming. Maybe the ass and foot aroma are gaining ground on the Cologne?

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/c0b10c62-a916-4697-ab78-9d6d354197f6/2012-02-27_1605.png
    Not to be cynical. But maybe it takes another 1 trillion from the ECB to keep the bids going.. I really hate this happened though.  I still remain the same as I was on Friday. 

  • Joe_Jones

    We can add some puke to it now. :p

    Although copper finished above its 20 sma, it still ended up red. Not sure what to make of it. Certainly not the risk on scenario everybody and their grandmother would expect to see after making a new high for the last 3 years of tape.

  • Joe_Jones

    Scott, if you are alive and a free man, a comment on the tape action would be welcomed.

  • Joe_Jones

    AUDJPY is so far not making new highs were compared to ES. Does it matter?

  • Anonymous

    Well it cant be good at least.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yep, another Doji. Hmmm.

  • Schwerepunkt

    CAD ended the day stronger by all of 1-pip. Hardly supportive. Euro ended down 58-pips on the day. Dow down 2-pts. SPX/ES up, mostly as a result of financials, especially after Buffet talked up JPM and WFC. 

  • Joe_Jones

    I bet you Prechter is having shots of Jack mix with valium after the close

  • Joe_Jones

    That’s called a fart. ;)

  • Anonymous

    Trying AUDJPY. WTH!

  • Fibz

    sold some ethanol stocks for 20-30% gain in the past few days and they’re down ~20% after hours today.

  • volar

    which ones do you follow- i do a ton of ethanol research- finally might get around to trading the equities for the ethanol

  • Anonymous

    hahahaha no doubt :P

  • Fibz

    BIOF and PEIX. GPRE looks like a good company too, just not as much movement in the stock.

  • Anonymous

    AUD/JPY is moving in a tremendously wide range these days.  The daily range today was ~85.5 – ~87.5 (i.e. 2 yen to the Aud$).  There is a lot of room to scalp in moves of that magnitude.  If only we had a tool to assist in scalping….hmmh, wait a minute (insert plug for zero fx here)!  

  • Anonymous

    Hum, quite a reversal for /HG. Had a sell order @ 3.88 that never triggered. Gapped open then dumped.

  • Anonymous

    Hey whats up. New highs today. Bernanke and co celebrating.

  • Anonymous

    Lots of bullish percentages down today in eur, NDX, OEX both slightly down:

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/marketsummary.html?E 

  • Anonymous

    /ES high looks to be 1373.5. Missed!

  • Anonymous

    Got my 3.88 fill /HG

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/UDONLHLETRMCPLIQD7CYTRLVQA Gunny

    teflon market, can’t penetrate with condom.

  • Anonymous

    AUDJPY 78.6 retracement off the high from 72.045 is 86.165.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    hehehe – you guys are mean – I like it….

  • Anonymous

    /DX could prove worthy if it regains 78.536 which is the 38.2 off the high from 72.86 low. Maybe dip toe with a probe:)

  • Anonymous

    dollar cant seem to catch a bottom. the yen however looks like it wants to play again.

  • Anonymous

    Yes, strange that the market is not leveraging /DX weakness.

  • Anonymous

    Per Cobra, when SPX and VIX are both higher two days in a row, we have 80% chances of a down day tomorrow.

  • Anonymous

    Took a position based from the div on the 5 min. 

  • Anonymous

    Futures touched a high of 1372.5 at the close of aussie trade.

  • Fibz

    Interesting… someone bought 25,000 LMT Jan13 65.00 calls @ 24.70 today. Open interest was only 425.

  • Anonymous

    There is the volume /DX

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Anonymous

    Geez! Stopped out for gain and long again 78.36

  • Anonymous

    futures looking interesting, we going to pop and the drop? or pop and never look back :D ?

  • http://twitter.com/gmbpost GMB post

    very impressive stuff. 

  • http://twitter.com/gmbpost GMB post

    but take a look at copper divergence

  • Anonymous

    Ya, div all over the fn place. Been attempting to long /DX and short /HG:)

  • Anonymous

     Yep , short fr 3.9125

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Anonymous

    FTSE and DAX have not made newer highs, while /ES has
    -are ftse/dax lagging, or /es is overshooting?

  • Joe_Jones
  • Anonymous

    Just the past hour.

  • Joe_Jones

    and bucky turned into a brick

  • Anonymous

    Support holding thus far, we will see how it shakes out.

  • Joe_Jones

    Mole had it at 78.39. We are way below that now.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    A hit of the upper Bollinger is exactly what I’d like to see

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/07c68397-905a-43fd-872b-768f147f1f11/2012-02-28_0806.png
    what is my mood you say. Pretty simple. If you are bearish were bearish. This might be the last day to be, OR the first day of swearing to yourself why you did not stay short. Pretty simple if you need the cash. Do not bet on todays action going your way. It is going to be a rodeo for sure.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Wow, stupidly bad durable goods orders . . . 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    oops. “News” just pulled the punch bowl.

  • Anonymous

    Pretty wild GG. Pretty wild. As you said once, experience tells you.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

     I mean come on guys, you cant get that at wal mart. Jeez ;)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    month end shenanigans.
    close green for all I care.

  • Anonymous

    Oh funny thing. today is my Birthday.

  • Anonymous

    LOL!!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO!

  • Anonymous

    Quite a turn of events there:)

  • Anonymous

    mMM I wouldn’t call it a turn of events. That would mean we turned somewhere else. Two Lefts Don’t Make a Right…but Three Do 

  • Joe_Jones
  • Anonymous

    LOL! 

  • Anonymous

    Thanks but Im not that old.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

     Happy Birthday Señor Cabrera!

  • Anonymous

    Really dunno what it will take to turn this market. Maybe Bernanke running out of ink…

  • Anonymous

    Yeah! Happy birthday dude.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    whoa.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Now news is good and markets are responding. Meh. Whatever.

  • Joe_Jones

    LOL. Classic.

  • Joe_Jones

    A Ron Paul victory this November should do the trick.

    Aaahhh, it’s good to dream…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ah ..young fathers.
    such naivety.  I love it! ;-)

  • Anonymous

    LTRO FTW

  • Anonymous

    You been smoking?…

  • Anonymous

    Just another example of why news doesn’t matter: Durable Goods (quantifiable) comes out bad and futures. drop a few to unchanged. Consumer Conf (dependent on who is asked) comes in better and mkt launches.  They must be asking the 1%’ers because I don’t know many, if any, confident consumers.

  • Joe_Jones

    He is the only one that can put an end to the printing psychopaths and bring back America to its former glorious past.  I long for the day when prices will be determined by the market, and not some arrogant ass wipe in DC. 

  • Anonymous

    Exactly which is why he will never become president. Sorry. I love him too.

  • Joe_Jones

    True. I would not put my money on him being elected. 

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    higher.
    connect all the highs.
    SPX could be 1380 by Thursday.

  • Anonymous

    UVXY, This sucker moves:)

    Stop in just below the 20 ma on the 60 min

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    sweet.
    follows the fib fan.

  • Anonymous

    How many times can dow hit 13000? At this rate about 13000 times

  • Joe_Jones

    You were right about the whipsaw.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    ah. Another thing is to watch out for the red 40 MA to start squeezing against the BB and SD (14) is very low.

  • Anonymous

    NAtgas sure looks scary…

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    thx.

  • Anonymous

    we all knew this was coming. And just like you I’m getting a little sick of this hanging out market. I want to drop my bearish view badly. Unfortunately I cannot.

  • Joe_Jones

    My bearish view is always in the back on my mind, but I decided to wait for the robots to kick start the move. Right now I am on the sideline and just observe the drama.

  • Joe_Jones

    Wow, 5 min zero is sooo flat

  • Anonymous

    Bucky just fell off the plate!

  • Anonymous

    very volatile. cable just moved 80 pips in no time.

  • Anonymous

    Wedgie on the 5 min.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/46c44a6b-5cb6-48f8-a9e4-3cdbd459502b/2012-02-28_1156.png
    Short just triggered in AUD/JPY. And my reversed flagship pair (long now)  has been triggered, talking about USD/ZAR.

  • Anonymous

    Found some grip for now, thanks!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    86.66 – aud/jpy has ran through it 25 times, no.. 26!
    messin with fire.

  • Anonymous

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASj81daun5Q&feature=related
    I’m mentality ready for it. Will bail at 87.00 if need be.

  • Anonymous

    Open the bloody gates:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    hourly resting on the 50ma.

  • Schwerepunkt

    News flash: Richer people are less ethical

    http://news.yahoo.com/rich-people-unethical-224915381–abc-news.html
    Nothing to see here; move along . . . 

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/6a1fbc22-880b-4521-8aac-0650c026a2ea/2012-02-28_1246.png
    Bearish and/or risk hedge for tomorrow? Meaning it could dump tomorrow and the risk rally continues or risk is wearing thin.

  • Anonymous

    “We can almost certainly expect further equity-market strength following the next LTRO, falling volatility and with it, a narrowing of spreads of troubled euro-zone issuers…” said Rob Carnell, chief international
    economist at ING Bank.
    This sounds like compacency is turning into ‘a sure thing’.  This guy didn’t even offer the usual qualifiers like
    ‘unless___happens or if_____occurs’…
    ahh, yes, The market loves a sure thing!

  • Fibz

    I think it could also be argued that easy money is making those receiving it less intelligent.

  • Anonymous

    1:15pm EST and SPY still not over 78M shares??? Thats just, well, uhh, ZZZZZZZZZZzzzzz….

  • mSquare

     Perhaps being less ethical makes them richer?

  • Anonymous

    The market falls for no man

  • Anonymous

    What about a woman?

  • Anonymous

    Oh, didnt think of that :-)

  • Anonymous

    It fell for both of us ha ha

  • Anonymous

    Indeed! Anyway, lets see if it rises into close, as i have long position (with stop) from earlier

  • Anonymous

    Does the news matter?  Keep an eye on tomorrow’s 4th QTR GDP revision.

  • Anonymous

    Trying to make this inconspicuous:)

  • Anonymous

    Last buyer in? Must be, it’s dropping!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    gone for an hour, and what?!?
    quick, someone call ama-dabla.
    (buy the dip!)

  • Anonymous

    wait a minute. “reloading cartridges”. ctrl P. now we go up!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    tada. back in green whew.

  • Anonymous

    We can not get a “Nighty Night” during broad day light can we?

  • Anonymous

    Hehehehehehe!

  • Anonymous

    Someone better get JJ out of bed:)

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    That is because this market has Erythrophobia which is fear of the color red.

  • Anonymous

    Yeah that’s the plan,
    ZL needs to signal IMO

  • Anonymous

    1368.76 50ma 15min SPX.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸





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