Tragic Tuesday Wrap Up

Per popular request I put together a wrap up video of today’s sell off session. Despite server issues I was able to somehow squeeze in a post but if you missed some of the Zero today then you definitely want to watch this clip.

Textbook trend day – ignore anything but the most glaring divergences. Use zero mark touches to play the swings and to scale in/out of positions if you enjoy this kind of thing. Otherwise, don’t overthink it and let ‘er ride!

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Before I run – a few more charts for my intrepid subs:

More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 6th, 2012 at 8:59 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think it’s my best one yet :-)

  • Anonymous

    That was awesome captain!

  • Anonymous

    awesome tune for the wrap up!

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Mole – it can’t be any clearer than that!  Thank you for another great post.  I am watching aud/jpy like a hawk (a pretty happy one!).  

    Can you check out the Zero FX – looks like it is stuck / frozen. 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ooops – thanks for reminding me – I turned it off temporarily to take those snapshots.

  • Anonymous

    no worries – i got your back ;) 

  • Anonymous

    Agreed!

  • Anonymous

    Dont you think Aussie is a bit oversold short term. Maybe we should back off for a day.

  • Anonymous

    Additionally, /DX is at a potential buy at least for me. If this is a trend change than the RSI trend line should hold.

  • Anonymous

     He could have been a DJ…;-)

  • Anonymous

    DX has been a buy since the monthly retest variation buy (and inside month) a while ago. I remain long

  • Anonymous

    Was stopped out several times along the way. Trying a new entry:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I hoped you rats would like this one :-)

  • Anonymous

    Aussie has breached critical support. Expanding range to the downside = accellerating downmove. That being said according to the hardtime easytime concept after a session of one way moving easy trading you should expect at least a session of fuck around frustrating price action.

    Personally I would stand aside or take quick scalp longs for this session.

    The highest probability is a sideways correction of some sort before resuming downwards. Problem with playing the long side here is that the market has spoken, the aussie is fucked and far from home. If and when the larger scale trend reasserts itself, it should happen in a hurry.

    I’d stand aside, there are tastier fishes in the sea :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, possible – definitely. Let’s see what happens here in the next few hours. Keep your eye on 86.33 for the next hour or so.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Agree on the possibility of a fuck around session. After all you’ve talked about this in the past – a big day is usually followed by a screwing of the late comers (and weak hands).

  • Anonymous

    Cool thx for the advice. Will wait for the bounce and retry later.

  • Anonymous

    Gets above this trend line take your profit.

  • Anonymous

    hmm i really think today’s move went down too fast (not that im not complaining :P) and honestly thought 1350 would at least hold (hehe can’t always expect the market to do what you want). 

    NYMO, NYAD and VIX are at extremes so I wouldn’t be surprised with a rebound back tomorrow before it all fall to pieces again – so I can only agree with you Scotty :)

  • Joe_Jones

    Great wrap up vid Mole!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it is.
    I’m a Tron soundtrack fan.  heck Tron is nothing but a Daft Punk music video.

    BPENER, continues on the bear bus.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPENER&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p33708322168

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    well JJ, it’s been 6 days.
    I think it worked out.
    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=27435#comment-451874059

    Drinks on DG.  let’s fly to L.A!

  • Anonymous

    Need a wiiiiide stop (and thus a small position size) here, a pullback is totally reasonable at this point.

    Advice, don’t chase buses, wait for them to come to you :)

  • Joe_Jones

    Congrats Gerb! I’ll drink to that! :-)

  • Anonymous

    Yep, wind against tide…. cross currents and hard to predict

  • Anonymous

    if 1350 *should* have held but did not, what does that tell you?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ozzi/Yen very interesting tonight….

  • Joe_Jones

    Now, why the hell would the ECB be shooting itself in the foot? 
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/european-banks-now-face-huge-margin-calls-ecb-collateral-crumbles
    Unless GS is short to the teeth…

  • Joe_Jones

    The second breach of the 60 min NLSL should do it to 84.50. Starts to get fun. After that, the next stop is way lower. :-)

  • Anonymous

    My personal favorite!! First video of yours I saw and I was hooked from there on out!!.. shit I go back and watch it from time to time just for the hell of it ha!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3y9UNPewqM&list=UUMDO_wDEqdEsfwR_8PXZatg&index=59&feature=plpp_video

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Anonymous

    Well, today we will see if STFR trategy is back.

  • Anonymous

    P got whacked AH. Need some more of these earnings:)

  • Anonymous

    I’m really interested what will happen after today’s Apple event. In the past the stock oftentimes fell for a few days ahead of an event only to start rising afterwards. A continued selloff would be an interesting sign.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/ff1f5c97-0e4e-40ca-a342-818be79274c4/2012-03-07_0748.png
    I will let my order run if it gets triggered. I have trailing stops for this one at 85.00 still looking for 84.00.One more update. My experiment (GBP/AUD) is working out so far.

  • Schwerepunkt

    FWIW, ADP payroll numbers come out at 8:15 today. Might run some stops in the lead up and aftermath of that, then we can continue with our scheduled programming.

    http://www.forexfactory.com

  • Anonymous

    i like this chart.  i’m seeing a couple bumps maybe around 84.30/40…but if sliced through, then 84 and below will be in sight.

  • Schwerepunkt

    OT Gerb: thanks for posting that music yesterday. I went to The Glitch Mob’s site and they have A LOT of free music. One file called More Voltage has an hour’s worth.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    nice 2pm trick yesterday DG, how the H*ll did you do that?
    like I said, I got lucky.

    now, to prove the market rarely does what you want….here’s my expectation today.
    small low today, and counter-trend back up
    http://i41.tinypic.com/14cflmu.png

  • Anonymous

    what does it tell?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no prob.
    have to be careful.  Evil master probably doesn’t want too many vids posted.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVpY_qIPM34&feature=related 

  • Schwerepunkt

    I don’t post a lot of that stuff. I’m listening to the technomix now. ;-))

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    if the counter-trend back up does NOT occur, and price breaks new lows, 
    the T post remains, just like the smaller one did.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/8eff5d3f-8f84-434a-9d33-88b562db4a8e/2012-03-07_0856.png
    It seems that my cousin who is visiting will be at my family instead at my house today..Yay I get to watch the computer!! Sick I know.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    cousins don’t intermarry in Caro-lina do they?
    (DG ducks)

  • Schwerepunkt

    A lot of my tenants in upstate NY are “related” to each other. LOL

  • Anonymous

    luckily they DO!! hehe.

  • Anonymous

    entering half lot short for the AUD/JPY here.

  • Anonymous

    Reminder for the rats. ES roll date is tomorrow.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for that;)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Looking . . . trendy.

  • Anonymous

    I thought AAPL’s history was a classic rise on rumour fall on news – the run up to “surprise” announcements (which are leaked weeks in advance – who doesn’t know they are releasing the iPad 3 today?) is generally quite brisk and is followed by a falloff as the buzz dies down.  That being said, the “ups” and “downs” around product launch is washed out in the overall trend which has been “up” for quite a while.  Other main fact re AAPL is that they live and die by product launches and are only as good as their last one (and market expectations of the next one).  The life cycle of their products is short and if they fail to re-invent themselves with the hottest and latest “it” gadget before the growth curve of their last one starts to decay, they become RIMM quite quickly.  Thus far, that hasn’t happened and we can only wait to see how good their pipeline is.  Doesn’t tell you much about short term trends, but it does make me wary of long term holding of this thing despite how hugely successful buy and hold of it would have been for the last five years.

  • Anonymous

     I’m a dork…so, what is supposed to happen?

  • Anonymous

    March futures rolling into June.

  • Anonymous

    I took a look at the last two iPad launches. The first one was presented on 27 January 2010 and the second on 2 March 2011. I marked those in red. The price usually seems to be falling, but starts to rise for a short period right before the event only to continue falling afterwards.
    We have seen some downside in the past few days, now we should be in the upside period if this analogy holds.

    Either way I think the public reaction to the new device might be telling. The iPhone 4S was generally considered somewhat disappointing but nevertheless sold extremely well.

  • Anonymous

    The actively traded ES contract, which is currently March, will move to the June contract tomorrow. ToS automatically changes their chart, but other platforms may not. Here’s an explanation from a quick search.

    http://www.mypivots.com/articles/articles.aspx?artnum=10

  • Anonymous

    Hanging tight for SPX 1350-52 before dropping the bomb:)
    May not even get there.

  • Anonymous

    THANKS Boom and Bdoone

  • Anonymous

    ZL is virtually unable to penetrate the zero mark all day. I don’t think there’s too much upside left here.

  • Anonymous

    ZL is virtually unable to penetrate the zero mark all day. I don’t think there’s too much upside left here.

  • Anonymous

    I think we saying about the same thing.  AAPL had a bit of a run up on the strength of the “leaked” announcement that the iPad 3 would be unveiled today.  If past experience is a guide, it will fall either later today or tomorrow when the announcement is, well, what the market expected.  The real test is a couple of weeks out when the market digests the prospects for the new launch actually keeping the growth ball rolling (or, to the contrary, merely keeping pace which would be a disaster for a growth junkie stock like AAPL).  I am always conflicted in commenting on AAPL because it is a great, well managed company.  It is the nature of its business that it is continually walking a high wire without a net – the market seldom seems to price in the prospect of a gust of wind causing the wire to sway a bit.  They are good at it though.

  • Anonymous

    I think we saying about the same thing.  AAPL had a bit of a run up on the strength of the “leaked” announcement that the iPad 3 would be unveiled today.  If past experience is a guide, it will fall either later today or tomorrow when the announcement is, well, what the market expected.  The real test is a couple of weeks out when the market digests the prospects for the new launch actually keeping the growth ball rolling (or, to the contrary, merely keeping pace which would be a disaster for a growth junkie stock like AAPL).  I am always conflicted in commenting on AAPL because it is a great, well managed company.  It is the nature of its business that it is continually walking a high wire without a net – the market seldom seems to price in the prospect of a gust of wind causing the wire to sway a bit.  They are good at it though.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Getting close. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    Getting close. 

  • Joe_Jones

    I am saving my powder for tomorrow. Today is rest day.

  • Anonymous

    We are at the 50 ma on SPX 15 min. Let the bulls get to overbought territory again.

  • Joe_Jones

    This thing could get to SPX 1360

  • Anonymous

    Agree, lets hope for that:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Or even a test of 1365.75.

  • Anonymous

    We probably do, but I’m looking for something else in AAPL. I think that it is not as important what a company does as it is how the public perceives what the company is doing since the markets are driven by mass psychology.
    Once we reach the tipping point and social mood turns down, the public’s perception of Apple, their products and their business practices should start to change.
    At the moment the company is almost universally liked even though they lock in their users, censor content and exploit workers. I’m looking for the point when people start to be disappointed by their products and actually start to criticise the company, because that will be the point when things start to go downhill for them no matter how well they are managed.

    Besides, take a look at this long term chart. We have now breached the upper trendline on the logarithmic chart what may be an indication that the final phase of that stock’s uptrend has been reached.

  • Anonymous

    More legs it seems, next stop 1359-1360

  • Anonymous

    Come on guys. Really you knew nothing was going to happen today besides bouncing around action. My favorite dungeon master speaks tomorrow. Many things on the table tomorrow.

  • Anonymous

    Hard to repress a smile – Dow drops 200 and Fed has to come out with some veiled promise of future access to the cookie jar.  Where in their mandate is managing the world’s equity markets written?

  • Anonymous

    Needless to say, Zero not following this smoke and mirrors ramp up so far.  We shall say what the end of day brings.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/804e0015-2f7c-442e-bf1e-b2e51d85e3e6/2012-03-07_1141.png
    first try was stopped out at b/e. This time I’ll try one lot. It looks like a perfect sucker move.

  • Anonymous

    EUR/JPY has hit resistance on multiple timeframes and so far been unable to penetrate it.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    hourly, it’s the 50MA.
    a steep brick ceiling.

  • Tronacate

    l eurusd 131425…….looked bull flaggy

  • Anonymous

    Some interesting long-term perspective on AUD/JPY.
    First of all, this looks like one big Head and Shoulders formation with a neckline at about 72. Secondly, we obviously penetrated the upper trendline two weeks ago and today bounced from that line at about 85 instead of breaking it. In addition, both shoulders appear to be located at the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement.

  • Anonymous

    Waiting for any potential EOD rally to take place, SPX snagged 1353 although waiting for a backtest to the 20 ma daily @ 1358-59 or so. Sellers up there:)

  • Anonymous

    bulbs forming all over S&P, AUD/JPY sitting perfectly at sucker levels. I’m not over thinking this. Short again.

  • Anonymous

    short order tripped now in AUD/JPY. it is a JJ lookie lookie trade. A clump of stops where up here (85.90)

  • Schwerepunkt

    What’s the script now? We turned back slightly at the 38.2 FIB level on ES. Anybody shorting this here?

  • Anonymous

    If jing was working I could show you the nice bulbs on the S&P. I would short XRT, but I bought more GBP/AUD and just went short AUD/JPY. 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    :-)

  • Anonymous

    Squeeze!





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