The Pain in Spain

Walking through downtown Madrid one sees little signs of an impending market meltdown. The weather is a bit chilly (for a skinny Californian) but very sunny and everyone seems to go about their business as usual. By no means does the current economic crisis seem to have affected local cigarette consumption. Everyone smokes – everywhere. The real pain in Spain for this ole’ Mole is trying to catch a whiff of fresh air in between people all around me blowing smoke out of every orifice and all those damn diesel mini mobiles which seem to be equipped with smoke machines instead of catalytic converters.

Meanwhile Kirchner (the nut who’s running Argentina right now) just took over oil and gas producer YPF. Now there’s a great recipe for disaster sending anyone holding stocks or bonds running over the next few months. Mark my words – this is going to end in tears. Yes, I admit – not exactly a very precarious prediction.

But I digress – let’s talk about the tape – which is why you guys pay me the big bucks (or not). The daily spoos should be your line in the sand – whether you are long or short. The NLSL at 1357.5 has been holding thus far and if it gives then we are going to 1315 – it’s that easy.

However, if you think the daily is interesting then you definitely want to see my weekly SPX chart. Please step into my little improvised lair:


More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) to view this content.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Monday, April 16th, 2012 at 3:20 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • Anonymous

    I went to Crete, Athens, Santorini and other beach cities 2 years ago, I could tell Greece was going to default upon the observation of how many Greeks were smoking cigarettes on a lounge chair having a Mythos or Expresso, and just enjoying the sun. I saw U2 in Athens and a lady next to me could roll cigarettes in one hand, standing up..

  • Anonymous

    Mole has resurfaced, but where is everyone?

  • Schwerepunkt

    I was just picking my nose, waiting for the close.
    Looks like a fizzle, and it’s starting to drizzle.

  • Anonymous

    Longs are nervous, shorts are nervous
    But shorts winning by a short head right now!

  • Schwerepunkt

    VIX up 0.03!  Will today’s candle be green or red? Flip a coin.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the post and enjoy the tail end of your Spanish adventure!

  • Anonymous

    DG is late, so i will say market closed 5 minutes ago!

  • Anonymous

    Mole, I’d really like to have a Daily Zero update today please.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    meh.
    place your bets.
    Casino closes in 10.

    http://inoldlasvegas.com/downtown/UP_ROULETTE_GIRL.jpg

  • nyse

    @CaptainBoom:disqus 
    How does the ThinkScripter Net Lines script compare to Moles? Pretty close? The code miamimajic gave me is good but seems to miss some lines.

  • Fibz

    Yeah, that YPF thing seems like kind of a big deal. Maybe Repsol racers will have to change their logos to “Argentina”.

  • Anonymous

    Well I screwed myself by messing up the execution of my own system. Today’s entry into my trading log will have a lot of material for the mistakes column.

    But the following pic helped eek out a chuckle to ease my frustrations with myself:

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    china states they will allow RMB and Bucky to have 1% variation but then devalues RMB.  too funny…..

  • Kudos

    I agree, I can’t complain but I have noticed it doesn’t replace net lines when a new line is triggered (i.e. 4 increasing highs in a row). Let me know if you figure out a better solution

  • Anonymous

    Uhm… the code is missing the original author mention. I found it originally on carolan.org when Mole pointed it indirectly. Also, if I remember well, Mole mentioned he uses a proprietary modified version. I don’t think it’s secret because Mole told us how he calculates his NetLines. IT’s just he did not publish the code. I found differences between Carolan’s and Mole’s.

  • nyse

    input method = {default CloseToClose, OpenToClose};
    input price = ohlc4;
    def upClose = if method == method.CloseToClose then price > price[1] else price > open;
    def downClose =  if method == method.CloseToClose then price < price[1] else price < open;
    input timeOut = 5;

    def netSellLine = if sum(upClose,3)[1] == 3 then low[3] else double.nan;
    rec nslCounter = if !isNan(netSellLine) then 1 else nslCounter[1]+1;
    rec netSellLineHistory = if (nslCounter==1 and !isNan(netSellLine[1])) then max(netSellLine, netSellLine[1]) else if nslCounter==1 then netSellLine else if nslCounter netSellLineHistory) then 0 else if low < netSellLineHistory then 1 else nslViolation[1];

    def netBuyLine = if sum(downClose,3)[1] == 3 then high[3] else double.nan;
    rec nblCounter = if !isNan(netBuyLine) then 1 else nblCounter[1]+1;
    rec netBuyLineHistory = if (nblCounter==1 and !isNan(netBuyLine[1])) then min(netBuyLine, netBuyLine[1]) else if nblCounter==1 then netBuyLine else if nblCounter<=timeOut then netBuyLineHistory[1] else double.nan;
    rec nblViolation = if (nblCounter==1 and high netBuyLineHistory then 1 else nblViolation[1];

    plot NSL = netSellLineHistory;
    NSL.setPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy.HORIZONTAL);
    NSL.setDefaultColor(color.pink);
    NSL.setLineWeight(2);

    plot NBL = netBuyLineHistory;
    NBL.setPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy.HORIZONTAL);
    NBL.setDefaultColor(color.lime);
    NBL.setLineWeight(2);

    plot nblBuy = if nblViolation==1 and nblViolation[1]==0 then NBL else double.nan;
    nblBuy.setPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy.ARROW_UP);
    nblBuy.setDefaultColor(color.white);
    nblBuy.setLineWeight(3);

    plot nblSell = if nslViolation==1 and nslViolation[1]==0 then NSL else double.nan;
    nblSell.setPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy.ARROW_DOWN);
    nblSell.setDefaultColor(color.white);
    nblSell.setLineWeight(3);

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Kudos

    TY, your awesome

  • Anonymous
  • simon n

    Does anyone know how I can chart the VWAP on TraderWorkStation for interactiveBrokers?

    I can’t find it ….

  • http://twitter.com/ActiveTrader ActiveTrader

     If someone could convert the ThinkorSwim code to NinjaTrader that would awesome.

  • Fibz

    The other day I was thinking the S&P is like a stupidity index. At tops, people become fat, happy and content (eg. ipad after ipad, amazon copying netflix, titanic replica dinners). At bottoms people become more intelligent, lean and innovative out of necessity.

  • nyse

    This is ThinkorSwim code

  • Schwerepunkt

    U can’t find it because it doesn’t exist. Big weakness of IB charting.

  • Anonymous

    This is just a reminder to be mindful of your stops if you are currently trading the AUD/USD. It “could” tape bang 1.0410 very easliy.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Done.

  • Anonymous

    Seeing as its been a slow day, time for…
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQaZWL8uxtQ

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok
  • Anonymous

    My friend, I only say this because it is true. That site will cause you more harm than good. For trading purposes it is essentially worthless. I promise.

  • Anonymous

    I learned the hard way….

  • Anonymous

    Yea I was well on my way destroying all my hard work after spending a few months on that site. I thank that place for one thing though, when  I read a comment warning everyone that Silver was parabolic. That is when I first learned of Mole.

  • Anonymous

    Need some feedback from you guys, and don’t roll your eyes :) I dislike Apple. I dislike their attitude, I dislike Jobs, I dislike all the minions, and lately whenever someone I know says they just bought some stock I tell them they are crazy (and good luck). And today I glance at AAPL and see an interesting thing,a waterfall that just stops at the 20,2 lower BB. Every day is longer red candle accompanied by big increases in volume. Smells like panic that produces bottoms. Something like 5 or 6 down days in a row. I’m thinking if it is going to bounce it will be here. I’m taking a half position. This is because a 25,2 BB gives a lower band around 564, and have 50 day sma just below that at 559. My thinking is  now is a good place to bounce, with a tight stop nearby since it shouldn’t drop much more, and if it does it should be good drop to 559 minimum I would guess. In this case I decided to take a half position, with no stop loss, and then tomorrow look at the action and decide how it behaves if it were to keep dropping to $559-564. If it stops there I’ll add another half position, but if it keeps blowing past that too then I’m cutting bait. Probably not the most indepth reasoning, but when you see longer and longer red candles, taller and taller volume candles as the price stops at the floor of the BB, well, seems like a worthwhile SHORT TERM trade.

  • Anonymous

    I could see 550 reached within the week. That will be the real test if there is more downside movement in store

  • Anonymous

     Why 550? I don’t see much historical support near there?

  • Anonymous

    AUDJPY shaker at 9:30? 

  • Anonymous

    To be honest, I’ve not compared the ThinkScripter results closely with Mole’s results. They seem to work okay.

  • Anonymous

    JBTFD!

  • Anonymous

    Yup…RBA minutes coming out. Expect stops to get wiped out and when the dust settles, potentially some sweet entries…

  • Anonymous

    LOL! Which one?:)

  • Anonymous

    Well buying the last dip wouldn’t have worked out (China GDP) since there wasn’t enough violence

    If we sell off to the low to mid 82′s, it might be worth a long.

  • Anonymous

    Will be adding to some shorts if we get some follow through:)

  • Anonymous

    Well that’s the thing, if its heavy damage, adding to shorts might be a good idea. If it’s not much damage, a long or two could be fathomable. I don’t intend to be leaning to either or…heck I might even do nothing! *gasp*

  • Anonymous

    AAPL’s earnings are next Tuesday, after the close. Likely to be very good. My guess the institutions are shaking out the weak hands and scooping up the stock cheap.  AAPL has been on the buying on weakness list all day, and topped it at the close.

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html

  • Anonymous

    Nah man. I would rather short soybean than Aussie at these levels. Unless the equities start falling apart.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Big green candles [on a 5-min chart]

  • Fibz

     Why AAPL though? Lots of other stuff out there with a wider trading band.

  • Anonymous

    haha Aussie. Let it retest or try to retest the top. Its not overbought now. I think you are too early. You know whats overbought soybean thats what.

  • Anonymous

    No where near as nuts as recent swings. I’m still not biased to a certain side on this one just yet.

  • Anonymous

    ZFX frozen…

  • Anonymous

    Ya, just noticed.

  • Anonymous

    The normal ping-pong before a direction:)

  • Anonymous

    Errr….weren’t we saying Soybeans were overbought back in late March?! It’s like up 100+ cents since then..

  • Anonymous

    http://www.dailymarkets.com/commitment-of-traders/ Yeah. You can be long until you get stopped out then flip the trade. Check COT positions. Finally starting to back off.

  • Anonymous

    Was just stopped out of that trade.

  • Anonymous

    Looking like it may be time for STFR now:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Knife catching mental masturbation.
    I deplore your emotional weakness by soliciting validation from the likes of the rats.
    and oh, losers double down IMNSHO.
    good luck.

  • Anonymous

    /CL, /HG, /GC look like all on ST sell here.

  • Fibz

     Looks like China loaned some more money to the US for the second month in a row (bought debt).

  • Anonymous

    There are better trades out there. Don’t do it. Wait for a hammer candle at some kind of support.

  • Anonymous

     540

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    IB sucks blocks – plain and simple.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t listen to what they say – watch what they do.

  • Anonymous

    Mostly because I never look at individual stocks but just happened to look at this one today. Not a great reason I know.

  • Anonymous

     I ended up not taking the trade. This is one of those times when a 20 day and 25 day BB look very different, and more downside seems likely. 25 day lower BB is nearer the 50 day moving average, so it seems to me to be a better place for a bounce. And as you say, a hammer there would be better.

  • Anonymous

     “losers double down IMNSHO”

    Good reminder. The trade should go your favor, if it doesn’t, get out, you were wrong (paraphrasing Livermore).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Believe it or not – there was a power outage at the home lair. I have someone in place to turn things back on but have no information as to when the power will be back on.

  • Anonymous

    U still subscribe to ENRON?

  • Anonymous

    wooo wee johnny looks like we got us a runner! *cough* sorry back to professional voice. Yea placing short order at 1.0400 and have one below at 1.0350

  • Schwerepunkt

    That’s what you get for basing ops in a 3rd world country . . . 

  • Anonymous

    So we breached the low on the inside day setup on $SPX…shouldn’t we have dropped instead? Was this just a failed setup or am I missing something?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Oy! Drew, what are the chances BOC announces a rate cut? Zero? [I see the bias is to raise rates, but they are constrained by the strong loonie v. USD. OK, back to our regularly scheduled programming.]

  • Kudos

    Aren’t housing stats for canada weakening though?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Those are fairly volatile stats, but in general Canada is doing well. There is a bit of a housing bubble, especially in the big cities of Vancouver and Toronto. That and USD weakness seems to be the main things holding BOC back from raising rates. But they’re signaling they’re ready to raise rates, it’s just the timing:

    In light of the reduced slack in the economy and firmer underlying inflation, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term. The timing and degree of any such withdrawal will be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments. 

  • Kudos

    Mole on Vacation = down market. Mole on vacation + power outage giving us no zero = double negative and market goes up?

  • Anonymous

    “a bit of a housing bubble”?… I respectfully don’t agree Schwerepunkt :) I see it as a mother of a bubble. The average in Toronto is more than 600k, and that is including shacks I wouldn’t let a cat in. The banks have flooded the young and greedy with debt insured on the taxpayer’s coin. Lookup CHMC (Canada Housing and Mortgage Corp). IF you are Canadian you already know of it. It’s the equivalent of Fannie and Freddie. Was created more than 20 years back and it basically turned upside down the normalcy of debt. Banks have ZERO risk when lending to subprimers, which is less than what they get with any good credit rated person. If you go to a bank and ask for a loan with 30-50% down you are deemed higher risk than a punk with empty pockets, requesting 100% LTE. It’s crazy. Got severely out of hand.
    –D

  • Anonymous

    How come you don’t have a cloud based platform? Or at least some other redundancy solution.

  • Anonymous

    /ES Sitting right below the 50 day MA . ..  waiting for the open to blow through . . or reverse

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sounds like a sure thing ;-)

    Vacation – I wish! I’m working!!!!

  • Schwerepunkt

    I am prone to understatement and hyperbole. Was trying not to sound frenetic about it. As you well know, bubbles can expand far longer than people think. That is the nature of bubbles. But saying the housing issue is a big reason why they haven’t raised rates says it all, really. 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Very good question. The issue is that I am running things with monitors attached. I have been trying to find a way to host that remotely somehow. If you can tell me how I can get a remote box somewhere with high res monitors attached then it’s possible. Thus far I asked a few places but they only offer server solutions. Same with clouds – I don’t think there is a simple way in Windows to fool the graphic card into thinking that there is a virtual high res monitor attached. It’s possible with Unix but not in Windooooz based on what I know.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did you get my email? Power outage (AGAIN) – in my area. And yes, I’m moving soon ;-)

  • Anonymous

    Looks like you are right so far, but lets see if we have yet another range traversal day, taking out longs, shorts, gerbils, badgers, an all :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I have not heard back from the home front. Guess the power is still off. Really sorry about that…. I’m so glad I’m moving soon!

  • Anonymous

    If you can disclose, are you moving within USA, or moving abroad?

  • Anonymous

    I think the chances to raise rates are higher than a cut but the odds of raising them are also slim and constrained by the strength relative to the Dollar. The C$ is also in a seasonally strong phase of its cycle that usually extends until late May/early June.

    That said, housing is an issue that is likely to be addressed from within. They scrapped the proposed 40 year mortgage and 5% down a few years back. CMHC insurance on mortages less than 20% down is not perfect, but better than nothing.
    Is there a housing bubble, yes there is IMHO. But there’s been a bubble for YEARS now according to the press and even if its reality, there’s no reason that it can’t get worse before it rolls over. Of course my fingers are crossed that they do sth about it first.

  • Anonymous

    He’s said in prior posts that he’s leaving the USA.

  • Anonymous

    Ok, but  to Europe or to South America?
    If he’s comeing to Europe, then when can i visit for teas and cakes :-)

  • Anonymous

    Your stop is usually the high of the prior day which is the inside day, in this case 1384ish.

  • Anonymous

    He’s mentioned Europe.

  • Anonymous

    Ok, sorry if I seem to hyperventilate… It is just it’s a big thing affecting my personal life. I refused to join this some years back and now I have to rent. I’m fine with it, I pay less on the same comfort than I would with a mortgage.  

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    AMC trying to understand your position sizing et al – does that mean that at one point you would be holding two positions, one at 1.04 and one at 1.035, with the latter being underwater 50 pips at the time of the second short?

    Unless your stop on the 1.035 lot is less than 50 pips?

  • Anonymous

     Thanks, great, looking forward to Krapfen :-)

  • Schwerepunkt

    My brother in law had to rent a 2-br house in a cruddy part of Toronto that is scheduled to be demolished in 2-3 years. He pays a very reasonable rent for Toronto (under 1500/mo) but he was lucky to find this situation. I know it’s crazy and unsustainable, but the music can continue for quite a while. No government/minister wants to be held responsible for bursting the bubble. They really should be raising rates, but the medicine might be too toxic for the patient right now. Problem is, it will just get more painful. 

  • Anonymous

    Im completely reset atm. EUR/JPY yesterday was a bust, and last night my AUD/USD I guess my was taken out no profit no loss. It hit my b/e instead of hitting 1.0300. Sometimes I wonder if they are out to get me. ;)  Depending on which one gets triggered first I will cancel the other one with the new set up.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/458230f5-0e43-427d-9871-d8e185960b5b/2012-04-17_0954.png
    Change of heart well I was typing that up. This is my new setup. The orange lines are the sell orders.

  • Anonymous

    I agree it can go on… I just wish I knew how to short it…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    meth tooth patterns.

  • Schwerepunkt

    good question.You could short publicly traded mortgageinvestment companies?

  • Anonymous

    I see. I was just about to say that your prior 1.04 target coincided nicely with the 25-day SMA. But now at 1.044, you’d see it cross the 100-day SMA….thx, always educational!

  • Anonymous

    and that’s why i refuse to hold ES contracts overnight anymore…

  • Kudos

    Moderate probability of up trend day. Sorry I don’t have a counter, so far 41 out of 45 minutes registered with a 10-min tick EMA as positive (above red line). http://dl.dropbox.com/u/30359092/4-17%20tick%20%26%20S%26P%20intraday.gif

    edit: might be higher than just moderate, I rather understate than overstate. And I am just doing this since moles trend day alert is likely down. Use this and interpret it as you will.

  • Schwerepunkt

    VIX needs to hold 17.50, which is the 20EMA on the daily chart.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I was about to throw out this old /ES T.
    ending of T’s can really move price.
    looks like price is heading to overhead resistance, or fib fan line.

    http://i44.tinypic.com/1rq72o.png 
    -DG

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    I think he is heading to Spain

  • Anonymous

    I did watch a few of those but they seem strong now. Given that they are insured against loss 100% I don’t know if they would react strongly to a bubble burst. My only reference is the 2008 when the housing market faltered. It was short lived because the gov promptly nullified the interest rate. The drop they got in 08 might also be due to the general downturn, so I don’t think it’s such a good predictor.

  • Anonymous

    Didn’t sound that way when he was referring to excessive cigarette smoke and Diesel fumes.  Los Angeles is not noted for clean air maybe he is looking to upgrade on air quality

  • Anonymous

    Should get a bounce here, trying a short /ES.

  • Anonymous

    Note to self. If this gets stopped out NO MORE trades in the .0300 handle! There handles in forex at times that are not worth trading. .0300 is being one of them right now.

  • Anonymous

    be careful now with the S&P. A sucker blast to the upside could happen any moment.

  • Anonymous

    Very close to bear on the RUT with 20/50 crossover.

  • Anonymous

    New event: Obama up at 11:)

  • Anonymous

    good grief that USD/CAD would have been nice. That candle looks impressive but it really has not done anything for a month.

  • Anonymous

    I know…I might consider buying some USD soon.

  • Anonymous

    wtf..heading for 14k today

  • Anonymous

    Zero is back up and running…wow…no Zero mark touches…feels like an uptrend day HAHAA

  • Anonymous

    Just nipped out, and came back – so whats behind this lift-off spx?
    We have broken high of april 12th, if that means anything

  • Anonymous

    Nah, SPX tested 1388 level and looks to have failed. Going to ride it down:)

    Scratch that: did poke through!

  • Anonymous

    Zero is back up and has painted divergence, you probably could give it a shot, but keep it tight since it really does feel more like an uptrend day…even though TICK weakened after 10.

  • Anonymous

    yea, it seems that way. I would feel more comfortable if it would quickly get back under 1380.

  • Anonymous

    Shorted it, at 1383, 4 pt stop, target VWAP but removing if we touch zero mark.

  • Anonymous

    pssh I take that back. This seems cooked. 

  • Anonymous

    What do you mean?

  • Anonymous

    Looks to be leveling off right in that area.  If it pushes thru (convincingly) then 1398 for gap fill from the 9th.

  • Kudos

    See my post below. I said it was a trend day. Tick = poor man’s zero

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/793b2827-5bc8-461d-bd89-6fae488df4e0/2012-04-17_1131.png
    sorry, This I forgot to post this. I extend the blue oval which is more important obviously, but we had a bust of middle line in red oval. Meaning and upside down failure of nightie night. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    SPY.  no love.
    fib fans have not been working. (red ovals)
    http://i41.tinypic.com/2di1r4j.png 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good news – it took a lot of doing across two continents but all services have now been restored. Once again thank you for your patience.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes – low probability UP trend day.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Out of this…

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Kaiser for keeping up with this place intensively!

  • Anonymous

    loading another lot in AUD/USD. short.

  • Anonymous

    Shorted AAPL after a near reach of 600:)

  • Tronacate

    euro coming back to earth

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    I am somewhat intrigued by the big drop at the open which preceded this run up to $600.  Clearly this here is a short squeeze, but it is somewhat ominous that it managed to open with so few buyers able to be found that it dropped another $10 before finding a floor and roaring back on the squeeze.  It is a VERY dangerous stock to short of course, but you may have something there.

  • Tronacate

    LOL……while the secret service is banging the whores…..they’re cracking down on the oil whores.

  • Fibz

    Hiring more people to do nothing basically translates into a weaker dollar.

  • nyse

    Yeah, pretty impressive to say the least. This is called *commitment*, gents.

  • Anonymous

    Hum, yes clearly was a run and will see it back to 550:)

    Testing now.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    before claiming any conspiracy theories, or OpX turn around Tuesday quips…

    There was a bounce due on the SPX daily (inverted T)

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/571/temp2y.png/ 
    -DG

  • Anonymous

    Something else ah? That is a secret!

  • Anonymous

    ROFL…so now you’re jumping in and still keeping those orders at 1.044 and 1.035?

    Freedom 15!

  • Schwerepunkt

    I would say “speculators” (I define speculators as participants that are not hedging their own production or consumption of a commodity or investment instrument but who simply hope to profit from volatility) do widen the range of prices on any given instrument, extending the extremes on both ends. But their main effect is to provide liquidity all along the price range, which is a good thing. 

    OTOH, like it or not, all modern economies and countries regulate their markets to one extent or another. There is no such thing as a pure market and there is both good and bad in that. One simply needs to know and understand how each market works.

  • Schwerepunkt

    VIX has gotten a hold of itself. 17.50 “seems” safe. Now, what’s it going to do with that grip? 

  • Anonymous

    One on top canceled. 1.0440

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    My early warning indicators are suggesting a trend day.
    Ok, now to catch the meat of the move… (lol!)

  • Schwerepunkt

    At this rate, we’ll be hitting Mole’s net buy line on SPX by tomorrow morning. 

  • Anonymous

    Well it’s an uptrend day…the last one got followed by a downtrend day. Who the heck knows and who cares. We just have to trade the tape in front of us. ZL is just powering upwards to new highs…

  • Anonymous

    I’m watching treasuries . . . yesterday the Sell off began at 1:30 wondering if we get a mirror move today back up.  Theta burn

  • Anonymous

    No no no you got it all wrong.

    They are conducting extensive 1-on-1 full body searches and leaving no hole unchecked!

  • Fibz

     I think I finally understand these.

  • Anonymous

    AAPL just back tested the broken TL. See where we go. Stopped out of /ES

  • Schwerepunkt

    VIX is off the mat and moving up. Insurance premiums bottomed for today. So far, markets are discounting this — although the rise in ES has been stopped. Thin reed to hang a short on, but interesting.

  • Anonymous

    Uptrend day…be wary…don’t be a hero. Tmr will likely offer a better opportunity to short then today.

    Or at least wait till the end of this session or an intraday VWAP test.

  • Schwerepunkt

    yeah, agree. VIX is interesting though ATM. Mole’s net buy line is just 4-5 points away now. I should have said “too thin a reed to hang a short on.”

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    question is that a bear flag or a bottoming formation?

  • TwinTurboRX7

    Looks like AAPL is going to test MA20, but all that in one day?

  • http://twitter.com/ThetaBeast Don

    Mole – I am getting Geronimo signals hours late. Please fix, thanks,

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/8cc230d4-2141-4d0b-a06d-506dffa7398c/2012-04-17_1420.png
    this is something to consider for the moment. The blue oval is what Im really looking at.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/322cbe4a-468c-4702-9c39-7979212e91b6/2012-04-17_1425.png
    Looking at the daily chart you can see that this tape really has been tough. I would not beat yourself up too much if you were caught flat footed. The nightie night at 1370 was a tough one to swallow.

  • Anonymous

    Via email or SMS? Text messages are always on time for me.

  • Anonymous

    What’s your criteria for nighty night? I still don’t get that and I’m still trying to shake my old bias that nighty night was code for market tanking at my old shop…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Anonymous

    Nightie nights=price hitting middle line of ovals and stopping to continue upwards action. 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How late are you getting them? Did you add your SMS # to your membership? I never had any issues with those – in fact I am paying 5 cents per message! Please advise.

  • Anonymous

    one thing for sure is they are hammering russell puts added last week…

  • Anonymous

    And I’m sorry for asking again, but how do you draw your ovals?

    Promise I won’t ask again – I copy paste important lessons i get from this board into a Word file now…too many gold nuggets.

  • Anonymous

    UK inflation ‘surprisingly’ rises to 3.5%

  • http://twitter.com/ThetaBeast Don

    e-mail

  • Anonymous

    Go to your membership page and fill in your SMS number so you get it by SMS.

    Email for me has always lagged the SMS.

  • Anonymous

    WooooooHoooooo!, gap fill:) LOL!

  • http://twitter.com/ThetaBeast Don

    hours late today. Never happened before. I just got the last one on time

  • http://twitter.com/ThetaBeast Don

    It’s e-mail. And I wouldn’t want to take that 5 cents out of your pocket

  • http://twitter.com/ThetaBeast Don

    yeah, that must be it. It’s on me. As usual

  • http://twitter.com/ThetaBeast Don

    all’s right with the world. I started getting them on time just in time for a loser

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/d657c702-f125-4551-8180-68becda4b505/2012-04-17_1457.png
    You might notice I like to draw them around the points where the price action starts to curve away from the upper BB or lower BB. perfect example of one right now.

  • http://twitter.com/ThetaBeast Don

    instructions on your site so only use SMS if you can’t use gmail





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