Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Let me set the table so that everyone is on point today. The spoos are currently at an inflection point in the battle of the bulge, the latter being a huge volume hole that separates us from an accelerated sell off.

As I’m typing this around 8:00am EST the E-Mini has reached said inflection point – it’s the 25-hour SMA which finally caught up with yesterday’s red candle avalanche (sorry for the typo on the chart). I think this will be an important test – the bulls have to conquer this one followed by the 100-hr to get back in the game.

You may also keep an eye on the NQ, which is in a similar configuration but also sports an hourly NLBL that’s crossing its own 25-hour SMA. Great long entry if we breach decisively.

As a little reminder – this is how I left it yesterday. After getting a great entry near 1400 I got stopped out above 1397. Only to re-enter short with a stop above 1400 when I saw VWAP holding. Truth be told, based on what I’m seeing right now it’s quite possible I’ll be stopped out again. But this has been a low probability high payoff (i.e. lottery) trade for me from the beginning. Usually (if I wasn’t already positioned overnight) I would play the hourly SMAs on the ES or the NQ – so, if you’re not in a trade already then knock yourself out. In case you wonder, yes it’s permissible to use the 25-hr as your stop out point but it’s also possible that the gyrations kick you off the bus.

The FX side is looking pretty much in sync with what I’m seeing over in equities:

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) to view this content.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 8th, 2012 at 9:15 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Anyone awake?

  • Skynard

    Spot on, love these briefings every morning:)

  • captainboom

    Yes sir.

  • ronebadger

    present…thanks Mole!

  • wrc1k

     Reporting in. Just wanted to say my one-year old trading account thanks you – it’s up 24% since I got it started at the end of October 2011.

    And also to all the investors/traders on this forum – thanks guys (and gals).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That is a good annual result, congrats! Now keep humble, you can’t expect this every year but it would be nice ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The luxury of living in Europe – no way I could do those from L.A – it as 5:00am there at the time.

  • Skynard

    Nice going Mate!

  • Maumaj

    Reminder that 10:30 is the NQ inventory report which is high volatility moment of the week.

  • ridingwaves

    well the Vix fix is in…already down 3.5%…still don’t understand how you halt options on Vix..

  • Joe_Jones

    Adding 1/4 position short on breach of VWAP

  • Joe_Jones

    AAPL is 4 handles away from its lower 100 d BB

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I can see why you are holding lottery tickets.
    cake or death.
    http://s9.postimage.org/9355pdgd9/cakeordeath.png

  • Joe_Jones

    I hate to be on the other side of Mole’s trade: It usually ends up cutting in my steak consumption ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    okaaay, I’m going to drive into work now.
    let’s see if I can generate some action!
    ta ta.

  • Joe_Jones

    AAPL at target now on the daily chart, but still has some room left for more downside on the weekly (target 527)

  • Joe_Jones

    For that matter, I would take a cab and trade from my phone

  • Skynard

    Added /ES on the div. AAPL catching a bid now.

  • Skynard

    There is the juice:)

  • captainboom

    Agreed.  One more day could give us the 13 count on the buy countdown.  Might be worth risking a long tomorrow for a bounce Monday.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Gbp/usd back at 25 hourly
    Long 1/2

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’m back.  Hmm, not as much as I expected.
    I’ll go outside for bagel break (just kidding).

  • Skynard

    If the div fails will flip it.

  • Skynard

    That is a nice hourly as well.

  • captainboom

    Been watching that.  I think one more poke below the zero line and back up will do it.

  • Skynard

    That’s a double, if that doesn’t do it going short.

  • Joe_Jones

    there is a nice descending channel on ES 5 min

  • Joe_Jones

    I would really want to see some bull capitulation before closing my lottery tickets

  • wrc1k

    Is there a definitive line to cross to lead the /ES into and below the volume hole and on down to 133x-ish?

    The highs on the 5m have been stair-stepping down in a perfectly straight line this morning.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    channel?
    All I see is the backside of a Tennis Ball.
    woof!
    http://s14.postimage.org/qbkidkyvz/temp1.png

  • Joe_Jones

    Yep the last 80 min

  • AmazingLarry

    Step the fuck back. AAPL trees falling fast in an account near you. Short float still has not budged (under 2%). Huh?

    Not seeing any support except the upper TL off the 09 low which we’re at now. What are y’all seeing below?

  • AmazingLarry

    Forgot chart.

  • fast and steady

    Correlation between eur and /es has reversed?????????????????????????

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • ronebadger

    I’ll take 1367 for $100, please.  (That’s right around a yearly SPX pivot of 1363)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    GLD 167.00
    last 5 minutes.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    gives us an update..is trash piling up in the snow covered streets?

  • Joe_Jones

    Kinda conflicting with the volume distribution pattern (see above). If we breach yesterday’s low, then I’ll be looking into closing shorts at the P&F SPX 1380 PO target

  • badflightrisk

     I’ve been hanging on to NUGT but it hasn’t been easy.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    good to have a target.
    I’d like to hear more about Mole’s comment around velocity yesterday.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    NUGT is a strange animal.
    some days it acts like gold, some days it acts like a miner stock, some days it’s a 3x gambling derivative.
    recommend GDX for long term dividends (if you get stuck in a position), they track just about identical.
    my 2 grams.
    -Gerb

  • Joe_Jones

    To me it feels like the tape is being walked down, running stops

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yeah, that tennis ball chart I posted, it’s too precise for humans.
    SKYNET is grinding down some curve/trendline

  • Tronacate

    Gold….hehe….Silver…..yeah baby

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    fill me baby! – that’s a Dentist Dream right? he he.

  • fast and steady

    I’m now long. Oh yeah baby.

  • Skynard

    Damn, almost went short. See what happens:)

  • wrc1k

    Out of TZA – good run yesterday/today.

  • Joe_Jones

    Careful with what you wish for ;-)

  • bdoone

    Bulls know yest. 1384 ES low must hold otherwise the SPX 1380 target will probably be hit in minutes.  RUT & NAZ trading below yest. but getting nothing going.  Looks like some upside gonna happen if FX catch bid as they are now

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How’s everyone holding up?

  • Skynard

    Well done!

  • fast and steady

    25 trades in eur/usd in the last 24 hours. I’m just about wiped.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Small divergence on the spoos – if we break the mark we may push higher again. 

  • fast and steady

    That’s what they call a compressed coil in the spoos, right?

  • Joe_Jones

    Great! Thanks. Waiting for the action to resume, either way

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    This thing either breaks today or it’s another lost cause for the bears. Tomorrow at the very latest. We can’t keep stopping at the volume hole without buying interest squeezing out the minority of the bears.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Glad you guys are having fun. Silver was the easier trade IMO.

  • Skynard

    Good long entry me thinks.

  • Skynard

    Yes, check out the 5 min lower panel, tighter than you know what:)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     just gotta grab whatever profits u have on table when indicators reaches oversold/brought even 3m/5m charts – just my 2 cents advice from trading this pair for half a decade by now…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    if it breaks 1375 SPX based on past extremes of the Fearless 20.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p07931266351
    but it’s academic.

  • Joe_Jones

    I’ll close my shorts on this leg down and buy HL 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    HerbaLife?
    ;-D

  • Skynard

    Good timing Bro!

  • ronebadger

    in my suburbia, the local town has been great picking up trash, bagged leaves, recyclables.  But, there are still cut trees, branches, etc for the town’s highway dept to pick up…they’ll be busy…thanks!  We got a few inches of wet snow…some areas west of me, toward the city got 8-10″

  • Tronacate

    Exactly…..wtf you askin for DG???…..lol

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Did TLT just spring one?

  • Tronacate

    See what happens if GC can retest the 25day SMA….

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Tronacate

    WTF with ZB???

  • bdoone

    30yr aucton at 1pm

  • AMCabrera

    pulling usd/jpy out and slamming aud/usd short in.

  • AMCabrera

    eur/gbp tells me equities are in really bad shape.

  • Skynard

    Damn, P&F called it again.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • bdoone

    VIX still red: WTF??? -2.2%

  • AMCabrera

    that formation in the usd/chf hourly does it present any opportunity it looks like a “diamond”

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    This one is pretty epic…

  • itcomesupinwaves

     You may be onto something, order book looks attractive too.

  • AMCabrera

    it looks ready for a setup does it not.

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks





    Zero Indicator


    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. search warrant


  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Squeeze-A-Licious
    2. Tuesday Morning Briefing
    3. Welcome To The Wood Chipper (Again)
    4. Hold The Line
    5. Mole’s Cunning Plan
    6. Cruise Control Market Update
    7. Darth Mole’s Evil Deeds
    8. Zoning Laws
    9. Week of Boredom Market Update
    10. Alien Versus Predator




  4. yes we can!



    NinjaTrader
    Kinetick