Terminal Velocity

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Bring your crash helmets today – we’re going to practice some high altitude drops. In the case of the spoos we may actually try a HALO – not for the faint hearted. By the way that video shows some pretty high jumps – I remember dropping out of 12,000 feet and it seemed quite a bit lower.

Seriously though – the E-Mini may be reaching terminal velocity unless the magic buyers step in again. I’m pretty pumped about those puts/shorts I have been holding since near 1400. Took some of them off the table yesterday but have enough skin in the game to finance another fun weekend.

No new setups today – this is not the time to get positioned, this is the time to sit and let your positions ride. Here’s the USD/CAD which has been ripping higher. You guys recall that I went long this thing at par, right? Please keep it up as my exchange rate over here in Europe needs a boost as well.

AUD/JPY – still a pretty good correlation to equities it seems despite some reshuffling in the carry trade. As I suggested yesterday – watch the 25-hour SMAs – and those two tests yesterday and early today were just golden.

Don’t be jealous – join the team! And if you have been sitting out all the fun then remember what I said a few weeks ago. The quiet times are the ones when you work the hardest. It’s when you get positioned to take advantage of opportunities that present themselves as things pick up momentum. I’ve seen many of regulars sit this one out – can’t say that I didn’t warn everyone ;-)

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator feed also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Friday, November 9th, 2012 at 9:28 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • AMCabrera

    I dont know but this is looking pretty cheap and a test of 1400 is probably necessary for commission.

  • ronebadger

    Mole – the recent, rapid updates have been awesome 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Cheap compared with what? It doesn’t matter where it was – all that matters is where it’s going. Right now I don’t see a technical basis for a bounce. If you wind up being right then it’s pure coincidence – unless you can show me a technical argument for taking a long position during a falling sword situation.

    A bounce may happen right now or at 1320 – nobody knows.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    1366.6 – technical.  
    but never say never.
    http://s8.postimage.org/vm6dqq14j/666.png

  • wvobiker

    My netbook is much slower than todays tape and my short positions are very decent. Music on. Ups and downs to be expected in any market rout. We are at some 250 day MAs but WTF? Where are the stops for a ride from 1402 and I wonder where to add. What is next week gonna look like? What will the longs be thinking over the WE?

  • Fearless

    In case anyone wonders, we did not have Defcon alert yesterday. I was prepared for the possibility of this move lower since late October when four straight Defcons got triggered on the Nasdaq, I just didn’t want to believe it. Experience served me well as I hedged on the move to 1430 prior to the drop (three years ago I would not have bothered and would have wound up underwater quite a bit).

    For two straight days now, some entities were buying the SPY and the QQQ, although not at the level typically seen at major bottoms. OpEx next week probably isn’t going to matter too much, as the November OpEx gain distribution pattern is all over the map from -15% to +13%. For five straight years, the Thanksgiving holiday period marked the final major low prior to the year end rallies. At what level? I don’t know, but I would keep an eye on that daily Zero for clues.

  • ronebadger

    DG’s fibonacci looks interesting in the 1360s

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    don’t drag me into this.  ;-)
    and I whole heartedly agree with nobody knows.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    so the last two days down was similar to the two big down days in May?
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p86247623762

  • AMCabrera

    well weekly chart is surely a good hint. Being right anytime could be pure coincidence as no one ever really knows.

  • Fearless

    I don’t know. However, in the past four straight Defcons would be followed by a rally higher and then another drop to even lower levels than the Defcon days (without triggering another Defcon). I typically start to fish around for longs when I see this, as experience tells me that, barring a 2008-like event (which is once-a-generation rare event), the next significant low after four straight Defcons usually wound up being a major low.

    There is currently a positive divergence on the daily Zero. My silver & gold longs didn’t care for the drop yesterday and the day before, which actually helped me quite a bit :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m heading out for a little. Watch the 25-hour on the spoos – enough said.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/e031c3a3-ec96-42ae-85a6-4ced6d95cbb9/2012-11-09_0938.png
    curve, curve, and skids off road. Now the child (markets) will more than likely place the little cars back on the track.

  • Skynard

    If anyone went long, see you at 1400:)

  • Joe_Jones

    Morning lads. I’m waiting for the amateur hour to finish before getting positioned. Somehow, it doesn’t look like a trend day.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    morning.
    how can you sit on your hands for an hour?
    call you stone cold JJ. ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    shorts, take their profits on a Friday?
    nawwwwh.

  • Joe_Jones

    I’ll take that as a compliment. ;-)

    Bucky still has some room to go before hitting a possible resistance at the 100 d SMA. Until then, we could see some more risk off, however only after amateurs get wrong footed again. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Bucky!  
    I always watch it intensely for weeks, and then slip out of the habit of watching it.

  • AMCabrera

    probably just dont fall in love with this tranny. 

  • Skynard

    The last time precious rallied like so it took a few days for equities to catch up. It’s been 2 days. Just saying:)

  • badflightrisk

    Apple has turned around after a weak open

  • Joe_Jones

    Added 1/4 position short. right here: zero is dead

  • Skynard

    That’s not it at all, trying to catch the meat of the move is all. Long from 1365 and we have a doosey of a div on the hourly ZL. Whoa:) 

  • ptosh

    looks like they want to get a serious rally going but can’t find the enthusiasm for it.  stalling. 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup – usual buy triggers are being thrown into the tape. 

  • AMCabrera

    putting my eye balls back on the nzd usd

  • fast and steady

    The lack of correlation between /es and eur/usd has done some serious damage to my account this week. Of all weeks, I had to pick this one to try this kind of trades. :(

  • Galazkiewicz

    A view from the other side reveals a FOB variation being created on the SPX Daily (thus far…) with contracting ranges  It’s not a forecast or an expectation.  But, helpful to look at both sides when only one “makes sense”.

  • newbfxtrader

    Use the Aussie or kiwi instead of euro.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    GLD tagged the Oct PP today.

    http://s10.postimage.org/6csnnygfd/temp2.png

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Spoos 1387 is the BB(25,2.0) upper band on the hourly.

  • ptosh

     they moved it, but volume is anemic.  will hold short into next week when this fri short covering bounce subsides. 

  • fast and steady

    I’m pretty sure the aussie is quite expensive to hold short overnight.

  • newbfxtrader

    Lol those costs are minimal compared to how much it moves. You could use kiwi. Less cost to short.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    If the overhead resistance doesn’t hold, this may be the outcome today.

    http://s18.postimage.org/iya7z8ndz/speculative.png

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    This one’s good.  So good, I  watermarked it.
    http://s10.postimage.org/b0l6fmvvb/evil1_tlt.png

  • AMCabrera

    out of usd/chf short into aud/usd short.

  • ptosh

    body blow.

  • AMCabrera
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (that was) Skynard taking profits..half ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    just a little.  we need to compare tracks.

    http://s7.postimage.org/r2x4mwy4p/track.png

  • Planspieler

    Hi,
    I thought the low would be in place latest a week after the Defcons? 





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