Follow The Yellow Brick Road

And once again the tape is chasing everyone around the playground without much of a direction. It continues to hang on by a thread, giving both sides hope/reason for a break out. And that is some of the most dangerous tape as it leads to opinions, doubts, guesswork, and in general a shaking out of the weak hands. So let’s be clear and once again reiterate the game plan here:

And for me that’s rather simple. As the daily is traveling through limbo land I am still short with a stop above the 25-hour SMA. Will it be broken today, tomorrow, next week? Maybe. Probably. Who knows!!?? What I do know is that the 25-hour has been holding and until that changes I will simply stay in my trade. I have banked fine profits on the way down already and there’s no reason for me to over think this one. So let me make this very simple for all you short attention span maniacs cowering at the edge of the seat right now:

Get it? Got it! Good! So let’s move on to our nursery.

I’m taking partial profits on the EUR/AUD. That was a picture perfect entry this morning – wish they were all so easy. And yes, of course you can enjoy some of that early morning goodness – be a member and sign up for my Google+ feed – and/or twitter of course.

EUR/USD – good entry this morning and I’m holding it for more upside to come. My stop is below the hourly SMA.

NZD/USD – you may remember that entry from the other day. Unfortunately it faked us out and I didn’t go short due to the weekly support that’s waiting below.

USD/CAD – great inside day entry and we’re off to the races – well, kind of. I’m keeping my stop below yesterday’s low.

Silver good entry this morning – yes, you ought to roll out of bed earlier! I’m holding it as I like the 25-day SMA breach.

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 14th, 2012 at 2:24 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • ronebadger

    thanks Mole

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m really beat right now. Going to rest a little. See you after dinner.

  • captainboom

    Bon Appetit!

  • StrikeFirst

    Possible support?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Same to you – I gave you guys a lot to chew on.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Unproductive. Try again ;-)

  • ronebadger

    Dinner is for closers….

  • Fearless

    The buying I spoke of earlier today is not only sustaining, but is increasing as we drop lower… Bottom is usually not on the day this level of buying occurs, but should be very close. I’m still a bit reluctant to go long equities because I only see big fishes buying the SPY heavily, not across the board.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    did you see buying like this last year on the Oct 03 low?

    I do remember you hinting at higher days, and thinking, this guy is looney! (I’m now reformed)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    SDY (the dividend flavor) is near its 200 daily sma.
    it bounced off that back in June.

  • Fearless

    Last year on October 3/4, the activity was across the board. Heavy buying of SPY occurred on September 30. (See why I said I am a bit reluctant to go long today?)

    Of course I am crazy, why else would I have gone long when across the blogosphere people were selling left and right at the October 2011 bottom?

    I won’t be able to participate in this year’s fun. I’m on the road for one month beginning next week. I don’t have the same effect on the market as Mole does though. If anything, when I was on the road, the market usually went up big first then does a complete theta burn.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    SPX envelope with extremes based on June Low & Sept High

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p23554233465
    -Gerb

  • MrMargin

    SPY itself is now directly above its 50w SMA @ 136.70 (according to my DTN data and barcharts., SC.com is showing a lower value for some reason). ES is looking more and more bottomish to me. I think we’re close, but I wouldn’t rule out losing another 10 handles or so.

  • Joe_Jones

    The more we go down, the bigger the volume on the volume profile chart. Things start to get interesting. Judging by the zero, it looks to me that big boys have been walking down the tape quite gracefully, triggering an increasing number of stops. I’m waiting for the panic now.

  • bdoone

    Just did: -1400 & -1457 TICK on volume.

  • Joe_Jones

    I have a TICK reading at -1432 on stockcharts. Yep that’s panic.

  • Joe_Jones

    Lol, we posted at the same time.

  • captainboom

    -1457 on IB

  • bdoone

    Yep, and a -1300 TICK.

  • I Bergamot

    Interesting, how ES broke yest low, but dollar and long bond didn’t take out yest highs.

  • http://twitter.com/BunDanceKid Bun Dance Kid

    ‘scuse my ignorance, gents, but could you elaborate on the meaning and significance of these figs?

  • amokta

    Panic? no need to panic, just outrun the bear :-)
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/bear_market.jpg

  • Joe_Jones

    BTW Gerb : WHEN ;-)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Yeah I have a low tick going back a month, but I’m not real confident in TOS tick data

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Muwahahaha.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    of course, always consider margin for scare the children, run the stops, call it what you desire.

  • MrMargin

    There’s another reason: ES’ 50w is at 1350.62

  • Joe_Jones

    It means don’t overstay your welcome on the short side..

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Gerb has a small order in for SDY at the 200sma long.

  • captainboom

    As JJ said, it can be exhaustion on the down side when the TICK reading is extreme.  Same for the upside on a large positive TICK reading.

  • amokta

    Oh, second thoughts, please allow me to panic, this bear is mighty fast!

    On the big picture, could Prechter be finally right?
    1999/2000, and 2007 were mega-tops, why not 2012?
    Or is there another run up, before that.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    dude.
    where on this chart would be a good place to bounce?
    not saying with absolutes, but just probabilities.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21395241148 ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually you don’t need to outrun the bear – just be faster than your buddy.

  • http://twitter.com/BunDanceKid Bun Dance Kid

    Ah, gotcha

  • newbfxtrader

    1223 looks good!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    LOL.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m happily at home so don’t pin this one on me :-)

  • AmazingLarry

    At the real rubbery area? :D

  • amokta

    Good thinking :-)
    Anyway, enough idle talk from me – im watching for a bottom to buy, have taken note of Fearless comment earlier

  • ronebadger

    I have watched for 5 bottoms today…(one of them was that pic someone posted….)

  • Joe_Jones

    Just got rid of 85% of my shorts. Leaving a lottery ticket for tomorrow. Sitting pretty in cash now. :D

  • MrMargin

    DX remains firmly below daily and weekly support so far.

  • amokta

    We either bounce now, or at 1224, of failing that at 666 ?
    The beer is strong, but the bear may be stronger :-)

    What value keltner channels, over other channels?

  • amokta

    Bottoms come in many shapes and sizes :-)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Another attaboy for you

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no value.  every rat has to have their own tool belt, and trust in that tool, with discipline of course.

  • ronebadger

    you are correct, sir….you should see my

    …. oh, never mind

  • Joe_Jones

    Thank you Rightside. Short side starts to get crowded now. Time to look for a long. I like the silver miner Hecla and right now it is flirting with the 100 d sma: 
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p84792002007

  • Fearless

    Thanks for that name, I may take a serious look at it.

    Miners often don’t yield as good a reward as the metals themselves (on the long side), though. If you noticed, gold miners are pretty beat up now, and gold is not doing that bad. On the short side, miners are perfect when the underlying metal craps on itself.

  • itslance

    Maybe a stupid question, but how do MMs run down the tape while accumulating large blocks of shares?

  • Skynard

    Been sick in bed for some time. Looks like it’s getting close, not sure if 1320 will get tagged. Picking up some longs since it is OPX:)

  • BobbyLow

    Glad to see ya still kickin.  :)   Hope you feel better.   

  • Skynard

    Thanks! Not sure what got a hold of me. Don’t get sick very often but when I do it’s a doosey, going to be a very bad winter in store:)

  • Joe_Jones

    So it’s true that you were under maintenance. ;-) I wish you a prompt recovery 

  • Joe_Jones

    Maybe you should consider changing your anti-virus ;-)

  • Skynard

    Lol, so true:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    so it’s true, Trading bots can get viruses. ;-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    tis the season, and lack of downtime ya dufus.

  • Joe_Jones

    No problem. With Bernanke in charge, silver future looks bright. HL is a fine miner to ride the race for paper money devaluation.

  • amokta

    Preparing for tomorrow, bulls are reassured in the knowledge that the maintenance of NYSE circuit breakers has been outsourced.
    http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3211/2526422862_0993561af6_m.jpg

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    missed my long fill by .02
    yeah yeah.
    better to be out wanting in, than in and wanting out.
    maybe a gap down tomorow.

  • Joe_Jones

    I’d be happy to see a fakeout move down tomorrow at the open

  • ronebadger

    yeah, I had that….

  • bdoone

    Scare the children early and ramp it would be nice for a dead cat bounce: On 2 min TICK chart I see 35 instances of -1000 TICK

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    tomorrow is OpX Thursday
    it could happen.

  • pouquinhos

    i can fell the pain, but i’m in the game.

    Let came 1330….i will stay with contrarien price.
    http://spxinvestment.blogspot.pt/

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t let any of this distract you. Folks claim this all the time and it makes no impact to the technical setups I presented. There is a reason I completely ignore this stuff – everyone reads them differently and everyone measures this differently. 

    This ties in directly with sitting and doing nothing. People just can’t do that – they always have to overthink it and find reason to futz with a successful trade. See the subject line of this post. Stick with it – the 25-hour SMA dropped again by the close – all you needed to know and you know your line in the sand.

    Peace out.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You guys think too much and futz around too much. Why is it perhaps 5% of my readers who follow the setups? No, always trying to mess with it. And to what end? Do you guys hit the nail more often than I do?

  • http://twitter.com/BunDanceKid Bun Dance Kid

    http://youtu.be/XzPBUGUM7KQ

    I’m doing my best to listen, guv. Just need to work on it.

  • Skynard

    Liking the set-up on /ZS here, although will wait for a re-test or a breach of the 100:)

  • AMCabrera

    sometimes I wish I could have a drink with you.

  • Skynard

    Just one?:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    that’s a HIGH compliment coming from a Southerner. ;-)

  • Skynard

    Lol, yes the worst kind:)

  • Skynard

    Looking juicy, 

  • captainboom

    I had it explained to me as, “I’ll buy a bazillion shares, but you have to give them to me at a lower price.”  The MM then tries to buy enough at the bid to fill the order. Once the bid at one level is gone, they move down to the next one below it.

    To me, the size of the markets is hard to imagine.  Every participant has a slightly different approach to making money.  The big players have to play differently due to their sheer size, if they want to accumulate or distribute. 

  • captainboom

    You guys need to quit drinking out of strange toilets…

  • Skynard

    Jumping back on, got the back test:)

  • ds2

    Mole – DZ update please.  Getting interesting fo sho.

  • newbfxtrader

    Welcome back!

  • Skynard

    Thanks, looks like JIT for some year end:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Ho ho ho SC is coming to town!

  • itcomesupinwaves

    USDJPY breaking out again, 72% increase in shorts today lol.

  • itcomesupinwaves

    Chart:

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    I was in it lightly last week
    On the breach of the $6 low,
    didn’t last too long before it turned back down
    Lots of long red candles today on the dozen miners I track
    Time for some stink bids

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    I often use the setups for entering trades in conjunction with my system. Some things I just don’t trade because I don’t keep track of them enough, specifically bonds copper and a couple of the grains
    I’m Trading almost all the currencies at some point and plan to make them larger percentages of my trades.

  • AMCabrera

    where do you get the 72% increase from?

  • AMCabrera

    have you SEEn the order book for the usd/JPY. That is major. MAnY cleared out long.

  • itcomesupinwaves

     It was on dailyFX SSI. 

  • itcomesupinwaves

     All the short orders are finally gone ha.

  • AMCabrera

    Im going to just short the nzd/usd again here. Also, pulling half my eur/aud position.

  • newbfxtrader

    @AMC Talk about steam roller AUD/JPY!

  • AMCabrera

    yea, there was no point in stepping in front of that thing. USD/JPY is carrying it all.

  • AMCabrera

    lets put it this way UNTIL!! I see double green I will just accept the fact I missed the ride up. I will not get into a street fight with the yen pairs or hold its hands up the flight of stairs. 

  • newbfxtrader

    usd/jpy is extremely correlated to the 10yr. As it heads up bonds should head down (interest rates up).

  • newbfxtrader

    @sky fancy a /zn or /zb short? usd/jpy breaking out.

  • Skynard

    Holy crap, what happen to the Yen?

  • newbfxtrader
  • Skynard

    Wow, just went long /ZS and have been watching /ZB since the breakout to short.

  • AmazingLarry

    Walmart, come on down! You’re the next bubble stock to play the ‘price is wrong!’ 

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    haha, shorted usd/jap for 1 runner. And its green (for now…) hahaha…

  • newbfxtrader

    Lol what’s the opposite of knife catching?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Stepping in front of a train.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    he will learn….someday.





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