Friday Morning Update

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The E-Mini has finally managed to breach the 25-hour SMA. I am now out of my short positions and won’t think about going long until we get near that 100-hour near 1365. And yes, in case you wonder – IF we breach back below the 25-hour I will take on a few more shorts.

The remainder of today’s chart goodies is reserved for my intrepid subs:

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) to view this content.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Friday, November 16th, 2012 at 8:45 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • ronebadger

    Thanks Mole!  But, I’m not too intrepid today….maybe later

  • bdoone

    Thanks Mole, enjoy the morning updates…Does this imply the area between the 25 & 100 hr SMA’s is sort of a ‘no mans-land’, which would make sense being OPEX and a perfect area for the bots and MM’s to whip this thing all over the place?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I just added that I’ll be long NG if it breaches the NLBL.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Try harder!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s a ten handle distance you may not want to lose out on, depending on what entry you took. Most rats will get this post too late to get a good entry down here, so I think the 100-hr is the better launch point. But if you got long at the 25-hour SMA then you’re in good shape of course.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it has happened before (cough)
    http://s7.postimage.org/ux3y5whvd/temp2.png

  • captainboom

    Mole, do you give any weight to a NLSL on the daily VIX?  There is one at 17.61 on the daily. It closed above it Wednesday and Thursday, and expires after today.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, /SB come to daddy:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Looking to go long?

  • Skynard

    Yes, would like to see 18 over the next couple of days for a last ditch and long through March.

  • Skynard

    Zombie tape, still long the /ES with full pos now. Think we see some movement finally:)

  • ridingwaves

    would love final flush to 1320 by monday 3pm….tarp treasury buy back on the 19th could help with drainage…

  • Skynard

    That is very possible, low volume now. If the powers that be can not lift to 1360 it would make a good target.

  • ridingwaves

    Apple 500 correlates well with 1320..heading for the 360…
    http://s11.postimage.org/x14jvobwz/apple_500.jpg

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    off to work, let’s see if anything happens on Friday’s. ;-)

  • Schwerepunkt

    SPX 100-wk MA is ~1317. This MA was touched at 1263 in first week of June and the markets bounced from there.

  • Skynard

    Bringing out the rocket launchers:)

  • Skynard

    Wow, that dollar. Went short:)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Short term it could bounce here for another short entry
    On the 20 & 30 minute charts there is possible exhaustion of the move down from Tuesday TD Risk Level is 18.83
    The hourly 25 lower BB is proving support as well
    Longer term the hourly and Daily down moves are likely not finished
    So 18 es posible

  • I Bergamot

    Dollar rocket
    I was trying to pick a top. bad idea.
    Score 4:2, I am losing. Thank god for stops – this could be a catastrophe.
    Proves again the importance of money management, that saved my ass for sure.

  • I Bergamot

     I don’t know how you do it. I can’t trade without some kind of the pattern

  • ridingwaves

    I’m noticing some buying in really beat up sectors…junior miners are holding steady with SI down..quite the opposite of last week…

    bought CLDX just now as the data they came out with yesterday on their drug is damn good…
    POZN also for a quick pop…tight stop…

  • Skynard

    Usually before the “real” move happens you have a blow out ramp. That is the pattern that suits me well:) 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ok, I’m baaack.
    looks like the Spoos slipped to 1392 and recovered.
    back up to the MA25.  ick.

  • I Bergamot

     That i understand. love to trade these traps myself.
    But how can you tell that this is a fake move, before it breaks down ( if it will)

  • AmazingLarry

    A “slip” to 1392 from here would cause a lot of bowels to be liquidated! hehe.

  • bdoone

    You meant 1342 ES low?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yes, yes.
    (where’s my coffee!?)

  • AmazingLarry

    I want to like copper and crude here to lead the metals again, but then I don’t like liking that I like anything. Hence, I wait. 

  • captainboom

    Liked.

  • Skynard

    Dollar ramp on OPX Friday after market extreme sell off are good clues. It is more of a gut feeling. Would you have gone long on the dollar at this point? Fuck no! When it is most difficult at extremes to make those decisions you are more likely to be a sucessful trader. Most would have went short the market and long the dollar:)

  • ridingwaves
  • Schwerepunkt

    OK, when do they go public?

  • I Bergamot

     O, I see.
    So there is a method to your madness…lol

  • newbfxtrader

    Lol! He’s the resident knife catcher.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    heart attack grill wannabees.
    I like it!

  • Schwerepunkt

    I think they just serve . . . ahem . . . coffee and buns.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Europe closing . . . down.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    uh-oh. 13-forty one

  • Schwerepunkt

    Mole did say he would add shorts if the 25-hr was broken to the downside.

  • Fearless

    It’s looking pretty good for a significant low around Thanksgiving Day again for the sixth straight year. Too bad I will be on the road for one month.

    Have we seen “the” top already? It’s a possibility. The final market top of a cyclical bull market usually occurs approximately one year from the third golden cross (daily), and we were three months short of that time. Hence, I am open to that possibility, but I still have my eyes set on a new high some time in 2013.

  • Turps

    Another rig blew up in the gulf. Shallow water this time, 20 miles south of grand isle 2 dead 2 missing. Black Elk was the company.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yes he did.  but the definition of  “broken” varies per trader, yes?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Well, I would think an hourly close below the 25-hr constitutes a breach.

  • Turps

    My Zero is not updating. Anyone else stuck?
     

  • Schwerepunkt

    Hmmm . . . words on white house lawn.

  • http://twitter.com/BunDanceKid Bun Dance Kid

    Mine too and it just cost me :-(

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m on it.

  • itslance

    If I were to guess from the charts he posts, he usually considers “broken” to be a candle that closes on the other side of a significant line in the sand.  If it breaches and then retraces before closing, it doesn’t seem like he considers that a break.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I would think an hourly candle off the line completely would be.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Back above the 25-hr on pleasantries at the white house. Sheesh. 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Looks like the Zero VM crashed. I reached out the hosting firm.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yup, and there won’t be any regulation or major fines this time either. Moving on….

  • http://twitter.com/BunDanceKid Bun Dance Kid

    Conspiracy theory has begun circulatiing

  • newbfxtrader

    Big fish still buying?

  • Schwerepunkt

    The 10-11am candle did just that. Then we got the French-kiss b/w Pelosi and McConnel. 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, this is driving me a bit crazy today. May just stay out – not worth it getting churned for a few more handles.

  • Skynard

    Easy killer:)

  • Skynard

    Game on:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Reversal day u reckon?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    whoa, turn away for 25minutes ,and wham.
    ‘W’ chop city.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Ick.
    or should I say Ich Will?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4K6ZxDwi34

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Zero up again – sorry guys. All of Maine (the main ISP) went down for some reason. Out of my hands unfortunately.

  • Skynard

    Yep, perfect timing too:) Going to kill the shorts!

  • newbfxtrader

    Trying a few more longs. So far I am leaking blood frm all the bulletholes!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I swear…. those &@(*^!^% – there’s something every other week. The U.S. is turning into a 3rd world country, sorry guys. I live in Spain now and in seven months there hasn’t been ONE power or Internet outage. There’s something to be said about burying ones cables underground.

  • Fearless

    Data is often skewed on OpEx day on that front. I will look at Monday’s data.

  • Skynard

    /ES at support/signal line. Another buy opp.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah you got all the good stuff over there on credit and now we gotta bail you out!

  • Skynard

    Will be long through the rest of the year. You may see another buy opp next week.

  • newbfxtrader

    Ok thx

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    treasuries reversed on the hourly.
    green shoots!

  • Tronacate

    Back to our regularly scheduled drop??

  • Tronacate

    Bucky firming

  • Skynard

    Hum, not to sure about that. Think the shorts are covering now:)

  • Tronacate

    Looks like it

  • Tronacate

    I’m just watching…..no sense getting ground to dust….missed the setup this am……BUT……if you didn’t take profits….BOOM

  • Tronacate

    Not much zero confirmation of that last poosh

  • Tronacate

    Anybody grabbing a long at breach of the 100hr?

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Long /GCon that 25 h breach
    I’m off to the races, literally
    US Grand Prix
    The championship could be decided this weekend in the
    US back after many years
    Check it out on Speedtv

  • Skynard

    That is a good point, but on OPX it is difficult to judge. Wait for it a while, as long as it remains above the signal line will remain long for the day trade. The TDA would kind of give you the hint for a div to develop.

  • Skynard

    Sweet!

  • Tronacate

    Took the es short for a quick hit……at 100hr rejection….don’t trust this tape one bit

  • Skynard

    Just dropped the bomb on /ZB after it back tested:)

  • Tronacate

    Look at SI after rejection of the 25

  • http://twitter.com/BunDanceKid Bun Dance Kid

    Unless I’m reading this wrong, all three Zero timeframe lines are now above 0 and pointing up, with the Mole indicator looking like it might do the same.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes.

  • http://twitter.com/BunDanceKid Bun Dance Kid

    Ah, good to know I’m learning 

  • AMCabrera

    dad must be proud. you know as much as i like that but not when Im about to eat or drink.





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