Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Not much on the horizon this morning – plus I’m not a big fan of trading short term setups ahead of a holiday. So let’s just cover some of the more salient charts. Bonds are now in downside acceleration mode – here’s the 30-year which hasn’t been able to get above the 25-hour since it breached both SMAs on Friday. If you’re short then there’s really nothing to do until we get a breach back above the 25-hour.

Silver bumping against upside resistance – although this is the short term view it relates to the weekly and monthly SMAs it’s currency facing. I covered that in detail in prior weekend update. It’s good to be short here until about 33.17 when it may pick up steam. Both LT SMAs are near 33.3 – easy number to remember ;-)

Very similar situation actually over on the Dollar side – except here I don’t see a potentially bullish ST pattern. Those boomerang moves show that there’s still life in the ole’ greenback but that a seller is rather brutish about keeping it below 81.5 (which would be a LT Dollar inflection point). I would not touch this one with a ten foot pole right now – don’t need that headache ahead of the holiday. If it runs off without me then I’ll just have to live with that fact but those boomerang moves are a bit much even for this seasoned market megalomaniac ;-)

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 21st, 2012 at 9:19 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • Schwerepunkt

    Flatlining …. is the week already over?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don’t think we’re going to see any major moves today (hope I won’t eat my words).

  • fast and steady

    Ok, I’m shorting eur/usd.

  • Schwerepunkt

    You can always wash them down with a Hefe Weizen.

  • fast and steady

     And out… for 8 pips.

  • bdoone

    Thinking same thing: low volume day before holiday w/volume hole 1388-1390 and 25hr SMA 1374.5Perfect set-up for bot induced churnfest…unless either of those levels busted with authority.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s not much – LOL!

    Did you guys see the AUD/JPY signal?

  • Skynard

    Think it will be a good day for the blue indicators:0 Remaining long the /ES, stop run completed.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    less see here,
    Spoos chopped at 10am, amateur hour over in 10…9…8…

  • Joe_Jones

    Tempted by a short here. We reverse at the volume hole and at SPX 100 h sma. If WVAP fails again, I’ll jump in 1/3 position short qqq

  • Skynard

    Think bonds are key right now, following them. Smart money:)

  • fast and steady

     You do what you have to do. :)

  • StrikeFirst

    What symbol would you use to follow bonds?

    TLT maybe?Thanks.

  • fast and steady

     You mean the negative divergence? Isn’t it very small, almost meaningless?

  • ridingwaves

    since 1950 spx positive 77% of time on day before turkey’s worst nightmare..

  • ronebadger

    Eating is for closers…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Google is your friend
    http://etfdb.com/type/bond/all/

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    As long as my /ZB short keeps falling. TLT, 5, 10 20, 30 yr.

  • Joe_Jones

    meh… I’d better go fishing today

  • fast and steady

     And saved… in “not naked ladies” folder

  • fast and steady

    Bah, this is too boring today. I’m done for today.

  • Ivan

    Hi there guyz … seems Mr Market wanted to reinforce the news story … fade the paper works as well today as it has over the years … and negative Mole … alas twas not the strip club!

  • newbfxtrader

    TBF is single short. TBT is double short. /zb is 30 yr /zn is 10 yr.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    then it had to be a Bar.
    cause that’s the only 2 places CS would go to.
    I’m sure of it!

    besides, many jokes start with…”A Guy walks into a Bar”

  • Ivan

     Ripley’s believe it or not strikes again!

  • MrMargin

    Curiously, the TICK count is relatively high, but below the TD threshold.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ps.  I know this chart of yours is platinum, but I don’t understand the alphabet, and listen as hard as I can…it’s just not working.

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5ABIrWPDpEw/TgkfYoXW6jI/AAAAAAAABS4/VNbM_UDHNrI/s1600/Blog%2B-%2BMouse%2Bwith%2Bheadphones.JPG

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You guys are dropping like flies – hehehe :-)

    Told ya there wouldn’t be much activity today.

  • Ivan

    Place yourself in the shoes of the person/people who shorted the break of the ‘swing low’ on the news in the elevator shaft … the close off the low of the OP was the first clue as to how nervous/disbelieving they were of lower lows to come … add one IP … and a classic potential ‘revenge’ scenario is presented.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yes.
    so CS mentioned the concept of hard time/easy time.  have you heard of it?

    http://s17.postimage.org/t2pl3fu2l/temp1.png

  • Ivan

     I wonder where it came from … not applicable in this scenario.

  • MrMargin

    Price action is telling a story. That large news candle opened at the previous candle’s close, then it broke above the candle’s high, but the bulls were unable to keep it there. Bears came in and drove the price down. However, they were unable to close at the low which suggested that their force might already be waning. Next, there is an inside period which upon closer examination opened at the previous candle’s close. Bears tried again to drive the price down, but failed to break the previous lows. At that point the bulls came in, took over and drove the price back to the open and beyond and closed at the high which suggested further strength to come. Steve Nison’s “Japanese Candlestick Charting” is actually quite a good book for learning to think this way if you haven’t read it already.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    true.  too small a time frame.

    something bigger works best.

    http://s7.postimage.org/a24mrc209/ES_July_2012.png

  • amokta

    By the way, nice pic of Vanuatu earlier thread – is the sea really that blue :-)

    Ok, back to the markets…

  • Ivan

    Sure is, tho naturally depends on the time of day and cloud cover etc … this is a just after sunrise view.

  • Joe_Jones

    Trying the short here

  • ridingwaves

    The sea is blue when you get away from the continents and all the trash….sometimes it’s even purple….look for dorado, Tuna and Marlin there..

  • ridingwaves

    short yen next year is going to be delicious….unless china keeps it elevated to kill its closest competitor….which has been the game so far….

  • Skynard

    Spoos on the move:)

  • AMCabrera
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    pass me the tea. ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Adding a 1/4 short here. Stop @ 4 ES handles above

  • Tronacate

    l GC off that 100hour…..couple hours ago

  • AMCabrera

    Hi. 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
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    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸





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