Let’s Slow It Down

Things are getting a bit messy out there and I have alert signals light up all across my evil lair market console. As you know there are times to strike and there are times to just sit patiently and wait things out. And the tape I’m seeing right now is but engineered to draw in the suckers and drain them of their last drop of blood. It’s a bit like fly swatting – when things are running in circles it’s best to slow down and wait your turn.

The spoos took off over night, stopping me out and putting me in a long position. Of course the crossing of that 100-day SMA had to be done cloak and dagger style – I would have missed a decent entry if I didn’t have the benefit of living over here in Spain. Since the open any remnant enthusiasm has been squeezed out and we are back in slow-mo churn mode.

Several futures contracts like copper, gold, and silver rolled over today, so I’m not going to touch them for a day or two except for a quick scalp of course. Coffee however rolled over last week and the NLBL setup I suggested last night is looking pretty good right now.

I’m also still long bonds but it took some in/out Heidi Klum style – way too much work recently, which is what’s causing me to slow things down. I’m happy with our recent setups but I’m not too eager getting over positioned here.

Sugar also holding that diagonal support line and you had another opportunity to dip in this morning. If you missed it then here’s another way in as we’re now approaching a pretty interesting inflection point.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 29th, 2012 at 1:21 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.


  • amokta

    Hello, anyone home? Is it Christmas already :-)

  • amokta

    ZNGA – at this rate it will be a trillion dollar company by new year?
    Silver up, banks never gave back gains over recent months.
    Push to summit underway? Do we need oxygen cylinders?
    Fearless’s commentry looking good.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    where is that chilly bear?

    all clear according to this chart.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p75424549702

  • Joe_Jones

    Jeez, today’s tape is killing me of boredom

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    behold
    There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play. 
    – J Livermore

  • amokta

    Ok, yes hitting that overhead MA envelope will wake Papa bear!

  • Joe_Jones

    You get a “like” for effort ;-)

  • amokta

     Jesse, is that you?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    thank you sir, may I have another!

    but seriously, I do think there is a brain chemical that gets addicted to the analysis/price of Market action.


    The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages. 
    – Jesse

  • Skynard

    Pulling out of the gates, jeez!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    huh? you’re driving to work?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

    It is a great book, very entertaining.
    But, do you know that Livermore was a total fraud. He made money trading on inside info. back then they called it “distribution pool” or something. When congress outlaw these practices Jesse blow-up. Twice I think

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’ve read most parts of it.
    The Man was an Operator.  I will not judge it.

  • amokta

    “As I’ve been saying all along, I think the market will easily make new highs
    in the next two or three months, possibly even significant new highs, or a
    test of the 2007 top as QE3 starts to work its magic.” toby connor

  • Joe_Jones

    AAPL on the move. Will the rest of the market follow?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    2 pts on a $600 stock?
    your inciting DRAMA.

  • Skynard

    Looks like IH&S on the 5 min, Pop N Drop!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    wow, Toby’s a freaking Genius.
    almost as good as my worthless Blog. ;-)
    (click my name for a two week old Nov12 warning)

  • Joe_Jones

    nevermind

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     There is no QE. It’s a hoax.
    Look how illiquid markets are. had there be a QE – all stocks and ETF’s would be swimming in money

  • amokta

    Hoax? You telling me Bigfoot is a myth :-)

  • Joe_Jones

    It seems the rocket move to new highs is being delayed…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     Not all of it.
    Search for “money supply”. You are not going to find any data showing that its grown in a past year or two. Atleast I couldn’t find any

  • AmazingLarry

    LOL. Good ole Gary Savage. You have to wear a helmet if you read his blog(s) as you’ll end up banging your head against the desk so hard you’ll render yourself unconscious. Which, ironically, is the best way to read any of it in the first place. 

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     O, and by the way, is there suppose to be 40-80 BILLION of QE3 money out there? Cus I don’t see it. Not in a market, for sure

  • Joe_Jones

    Sometimes I wonder why the market is opened for so long. One hour trading would be more than enough. Most of the volume is in the first and last 1/2 h anyway. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Interesting enough, his Guru rating is 46%.
    now you see why I hang out here.  much much much better.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    that’s what she said.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     Second that

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO!!!!

  • newbfxtrader

    Ur assuming they are going long this time too with that money.

  • Pervergence

    Today looked like a bearish wedge to me……see how much this drops AH

  • AmazingLarry

    I have some ZNGA, but there’s a bigger boner in GRPN. That which is most hated can only be loved when the tides shift. 

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     This is what I don’t understand.
    QE3 is SO much money, that even if a small portion of it does into stock-market there should be an explosion of all prices. Clearly, this is not a case.
    You want to tell me that asset allocators are sitting there on a pile of money and not doing a thing? How they are going to explain it to their boss?

  • amokta

    Ok, good heads-up!
    Also RIMM

  • ridingwaves

    85 million to be correct…its washed out by MBS junk purchases with treasurys. QE has become less effective stock ramp up wise over time.

    They will reload Twist operation on 12.12..book it….short term rates will get hard if not…

    http://s12.postimage.org/so1p2kihp/stimulus_for_the_market.jpg

  • newbfxtrader

    Well they may be buying. But it may be European indices or commodities. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    Pulled many teeth today, doc?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     Aren’t they  suppose to buy 40 billion MBS per month, plus Twist, plus reinvestment of interest on their own bonds (don’t you love that), plus line with Europe, plus reverse repo… I’m sure I left something out.
    Where is the money?
    Bullshit.
    They are doing something else, or nothing at all. Play golf, ride around in limo, collecting paycheck and writing memoirs.
    But, what do I know. I’m just a little fruit. (don’t smoke the leaves)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Are they toxic?  The leaves, I mean.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Is there a chapter for traders on the value of a loaded handgun? 

  • ridingwaves

    I don’t know…my guess is buying euro swaps… Twist is ending so they are going to have to announce that program extension…lots of chatter in the news about that ….I don’t mention news around here, Mole is the blog whisperer and has ninja like skills…I like living..

  • Joe_Jones

    I can’t believe I wasted the whole day watching this POS of tape.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ramp and camp.
    Zzzzzzz.

  • AMCabrera

    this makes me happy.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I love you.

    no, don’t touch me.

  • badflightrisk

    JRCC going ballistic again. 

  • BobbyLow

    QE1, QE2, QE3, QE4 and, or “Operation Twist Again Like We Did Last Summer”, are things that are very difficult to explain for good reason.  

    And how about this for a reason?  The proceeds of these asset purchases by the Fed end up in the hands of Goldman Sachs et.al.  They in turn are allowed to use this money to trade the markets with leverage numbers that we can only dream about.  

    Why is it that they only have one or two losing trading days each quarter?  Are they that good or do they just control the action because they are the “house”?

    The Fed can justify this kind of activity because of the belief that a “stable” stock market encourages people to spend and all that rot.  

    In the mean time with all its Violent Moves, the Stock Market has gone absolutely nowhere for 10 Years. 

    It is what it is.  The Stock Market has become “Ground Hog Day” and my job is catch a ride on these moves to nowhere.  :)

  • Joe_Jones

    AAPL finished the day with a doji

  • BobbyLow

    Ya, but you know you love it!   LOL

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Boy, that was one boring ass session – sheeesh!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Fortunately I did not. Hey I told you guys to not bother with this shit. When I say sit and wait I don’t mean you have to watch the monitor all day ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Frankly, today I hated it. All I gained is a headache.

  • newbfxtrader

    Usually the fare after a big move day like yesterday.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Right – most of it is being sterilized. We have been pretty flat on the printing front for a year. They still find ways to funnel cash to the PMs of course but we are not vastly expanding the money supply right now. The strength in the EUR/USD is due to perception mostly and of course due to the games being played in Europe by the ECB. All things being equal the Dollar should be eating the Euro alive – not sure why the Dollar is falling faster than the EUR.

  • Joe_Jones

    Good for you. Now that you’re back, any chance for a post with the MMMR’s indicator?
    Also, please update the daily zero. Cheers.

  • Turps

    Man up to my eyeballs today, not a chance to look at anything, glad i missed it.

  • Skynard

    Darn TootN, looks like an accending triangle. Calls at 85% and will hold out one more day. Holding /ES for tonights session.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

    Thank you.
    My observations are based on stock market.
    As far as currencies go, its still too new to me. I just listen to you, nod and say “ya-ya” :)

  • BobbyLow

    I know what you mean.  About the only positive thing I got out of today is that I learned that I should try to clear my day trading positions off the table before any anybody from Washington DC speaks.  I had a good day going before Boner cheered everybody up.  

    I’ll end up the day with 7 Currency Pair trades for about a total of Break Even in Total.  The only thing that saved me was a long oil position that I’ve had for what seems like forever.  

    Oh well, they’ll be more trains leaving tomorrow.  :)

  • vladv

    it was a great session..took the family out for a concert and then a nice dinner out…..no stresses..
    should do it more often

  • itcomesupinwaves

     What’s up with the whale sized bids down to 0.9180 on the USDCHF? OB looks flooded with longs but the big orders are mostly buy side.. hmm.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/6e236d74-4e87-4a16-97b1-531475a4eebb/2012-11-29_1709.png
    everyone is plum crazy. Today tape was not boring at all I find it very intriguing. This gets me excited because if the best on here are bored that means many are super bored and complacent. Be warned however that 1430 will be a major resistance and will likely be touched.

  • AMCabrera

    yes and you see that below sell orders start at .9050. It could squeeze lower to 9200 but then there will be nothing left. Below that (9200) is it a desert AND if it does we could easily see double red AnD my dear friend you know what that means.

  • Pervergence

    Crown day…….

  • Schwerepunkt

    12.5 pip range on USD.CAD all day. Yeah, I’d say that’s pretty boring. I didn’t see the ass part, though. That might have made it somewhat interesting, assuming it’s female.

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, go AMC!

  • Schwerepunkt

    REALLY tight ID on the USD.CAD. 12.5 pip range today. Has got to be one of the tightest holes in history.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    that’s what Kevin sai….nevermind.

  • Joe_Jones

    Oh you did not say that.. :D

  • Skynard

     Jiminy Christmas!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Kevin who? Referring to what?  Seriously, USD.CAD is about to bust a move. I think it will be up based on the selloff of the last 11-days, Stochs, ATR, etc. Key levels are 0.9938 to the upside and 0.9911 to the downside.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Put your stop a few handles below the 100-hour and be done with it. You got a good entry (I take it) so leave it be for now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Turning into a pumpkin now – see you guys tomorrow.

  • Joe_Jones

    Nighty night Boss ;-)

  • Skynard

    Think the over night session will be interesting:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    that was the support 15 hours ago, nothing is changed.
    They need not destroy the Rebel Alliance, just hold them there until further notice.

  • Skynard

    The /DX, you decide. Sucka tagged the 23 and bounced. Find it amazing to this day that price movement still tends to do that:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    let’s not go there.
    USD.CAD is a fuzzy catapiller but it does look like it has a shot over the 100ma hourly.

  • Skynard

    Lol, will do that:)

  • Skynard

    1/2 long AUDJPY, stop just below the daily NLSL.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     DX taken me for a rough ride. Shorted it twice, stopped out and the sucka is lower now. Run away from me

  • Skynard

    The charts do not look bullish to me. Seeing support at 79.84 (25 lower BB:)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     Dollar looks outright bearish for me. Just can’t keep the short.

  • Skynard

    So does the Yen:) Still!

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ iBergamot

     Hey, if this business was easy – everybody would do it . He-He

  • Skynard

     What the………50 pips!

  • Skynard

     Think more are trying, but the bots are taking them out 1 by 1:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Yen and aussie weakness at the same time. Check out aud/usd usd/jpy. Its getting ridonculous!

  • Skynard

     Hey, shorting USDJPY. Good point:)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    These currency corrections are about extreme
    attempts to push out the most positions possible
    Usd/chf and aud/jpy

  • Joe_Jones

    We could see  failed retests of the previous high on 60 min. EURUSD and AUDJPY.
    Y’all know I’ll enjoy that.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Shorted euro 1.3021, Xmas lights and divergence. Not the best of entry (was napping), but might work with a tight stops at day’s high of 1.3027.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Taken 1/2 out at 12 pips profits and rest at break-even stops.

  • newbfxtrader

    H&S on aud/usd and inverted H&S on aud/jpy hourlies. Interesting.

  • AMCabrera

    Men of this beloved blog all my yen longs were stopped out last night. eur/jpy and aud/jpy are no longer with me stopped out with 20-30 pip losses. No biggie Shorting gbp/jpy here and shooting again at aud/jpy. of course I still hold my aud/usd nzd/usd and usd/chf positions short short long respectively

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Cheer up bro. The MM cant get u while u r awake, that’s why they always get u while u r asleep.

  • AMCabrera

    im cheered up. It was no biggie the aud/jpy technically was no loss because I took half profit yesterday and the eur/jpy was no issue because aud/usd nzd/usd and the recent yen longs I just took this morning are looking promising. ;)  

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/fc9b45e9-2c4e-490a-a9bd-0ffc2aba3fe1/2012-11-30_0809.png
    butt plug is gone at 1.0450 that is good news for me. However, I do not expect anything massive so if we see 1.0350 I will by de jure take half profit then put b/e WHICH will be automatically hit LOL.

  • AMCabrera

    nzd/usd just pushed through the 200sma hourly

  • BobbyLow

    I got up early this morning and had three scalps for breakfast.  :)

    You think this nzd/usd might be due for a bounce soon?  I’ll wait for the 8 AM candle to complete and take another look at her.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Long euro for zero divergence. Just 2 runners. Feels like stealing candy from the lion’s jaws doing this trade. gg.

  • BobbyLow

    Could be a good play.

    It was a beautiful short set up about an hour ago and now it’s at yesterday’s close.  

    What a game.   :)

  • AMCabrera

    well, for now it is below the 200sma so for now I can only expect shallow bounces. The nzd/usd is dangerous for longs IMO the order book is slammed full of buy orders below. Plenty of reason to go down to clear below.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/758a7956-07c1-4453-ba52-683c1bd52039/2012-11-30_0855.png
    this is what I was referring too. Of course it could make an almighty assault to the upside and clear all and any traces of sell orders on top which THEN would make it a for sure short at .8300

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     I am out with 10/12 pips for both. Probably done for the day.. unless mole got something similar to gold (2 days ago) for us.

  • AMCabrera

    getting out of usd/chf long and into the gbp/chf long.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ????????????????????????????????????????­???????????????

    N   E   W    P   O  S   T  !   !    N   E   W    P   O  S   T  !   !   N   E   W    P   O  S   T  !   !

    ??????????????????????????????????????????­??????????????





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