Something Nasty In The Woodshed

Looks like it’s going to be a churner and it’s good to hear that the Mole signals are keeping some of you guys out of trouble. I myself am a bit puzzled right now as I earlier today saw something nasty in the woodshed.

Fortunately I took some incriminating pictures, so let’s review:

Here’s exhibit A: Someone’s got to explain to me why the VIX pushed up by over a handle since yesterday’s close.

Exhibit B: This is the SPX:VIX ratio – as you can see the tape is pushing sideways while the ratio opened quite a bit lower and has been dropping during the session.

Here’s VXV:VIX – if you’re a sub then you know what this chart is all about. It also continues to drop and for the record has been for weeks now despite the advance. Market makers are definitely pricing in some turbulences for 2013. Anyway, this is more longer term but today’s sharp drop also speaks to the short term picture.

Meanwhile the NYSE volume plots are pretty much in balance, like what’s shown on the SPX.

Call me paranoid but I think we may be heading for a quick shake out here tomorrow or Friday. If you have considerable exposure on the equities side then watch your six.

That said I think AMZN is looking rather juicy today – that’s a nice inside day setup after some long preceding candles. In a configuration like that always bear in mind that we could get a retest variation sell setup as well. In that case we may breach the upper ID trigger but then fall back. If that happens then go short on the lower breach – you can take the upper reversal of course if you want to be early. Hope this makes sense – if not check the cheat sheet.

CAT is not a setup yet but is now smashing into daily resistance – we should give this one a day or so to paint something bearish. Don’t grab this one just yet, it may push higher and squeeze the shorts.

Of course there’s more for the subs – please step into my festive Christmas lair:

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 19th, 2012 at 2:07 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • Pervergence

    Why would you flip out of shorts wih the strong signal in the lower left hourly…..I added to shorts

  • ronebadger

    Having fun at work during the holidays:

    http://youtu.be/m0jtZhur2N4

  • captainboom

    Better living through chemistry  ;-)   I’ve picked up dry ice from the local Meijer store to show my kids how to safely play with it.  It’s fun to put chunks on a table and play hockey with, or to let the pieces sit for a while and ‘sing’.  They will vibrate as the gas evolves off the chunks.

    Another very satisfying experiment is to put a whole bunch of chunks in a 2 liter bottle and screw the cap on tight.  A little warm water in the bottle helps.  It gives a very satisfying boom.  I recommend proper protective equipment, safety glasses and ear plugs at minimum.  Liquid nitrogen does this trick even better, as you don’t need the water.

  • BobbyLow

    I think you’re right about “something nasty in the woodshed” Boss and that something nasty is Politics.  

    Just for the hell of it, I caught the last minute of Boners news conference.  At that moment I was sitting on some profit in Oil and one other stock.  Right or wrong, I immediately took them both off the table.  

    There will probably be a deal but not before jerking everybody around a couple of times.

    Still have 5 Open Forex Positions with 3 Stops set in Profit Territory and 2 Set at BE.  

    In the mean time, I’ll just coast for awhile.  :)

      

  • http://twitter.com/NobodyTrader Nobody Trader

    Op-ex week. Sit on hands. These moves will most likely not follow thru. I say we end the week where we started.

  • Skynard

    Blew that one, the signal looked like it was moving up. Remaining long, should of waited on the MOLE signal:)

  • Skynard

    All three signals confirm:)

  • AmazingLarry

    So they’re selling long term vol and bonds and buying short term vol? Wouldn’t TIPS take a hit, too?

  • bdoone

    Confirm? your long pos?

  • Skynard

    Yes sir, all three ZL signals are GO!

  • AMCabrera

    http://www.thefreedictionary.com/complacency
    this is I sum up this whole thing.

  • Skynard

    Bastards want to paint a div first:)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Is this a step 1 of Vix sell signal ?
     

  • http://twitter.com/NobodyTrader Nobody Trader

    Bears must live in the moment, ’cause tomorrow’s ANOTHER DAY. I don’t care either way, agnostic. This won’t last long because the insiders will pin strikes.

  • itslance

    Is that what just caused the 6 handle drop off?

  • Skynard

    Ya, watch it run 10 pts after market close:)

  • captainboom

    Looks like it is, by a hair.

  • http://twitter.com/NobodyTrader Nobody Trader

    RUT didn’t even go red. LOL

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     BBands are so narrow, we can have sell followed by buy signal within a week or so. Can you imagine Xmas like that?
    Ho-Ho-Ho (with a small cloud of coal dust)

  • Curiousmind3861

    Upper BB at 17.37, VIX closed today at 17.36, no signal!! That is just interesting…

  • jmoney3000

    The mole scalp signals are absolutely amazing.  I couldn’t imagine trading without them.  Thanks for your continued hard work, Mole.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Dude, you ought to see what I’m working on right now. Good stuff coming – will try to get it to beta by NYE.

  • AMCabrera
  • AMCabrera

    Not looking for systemic risk just looking for a deep discount.

  • FSUinArizona

    Is that what the blue arrows represent? Would you share how you trade the signals (rules)?

  • newbfxtrader

    Honestly find the zero much better than zeroFX. Looking forward to whats cooking!

  • newbfxtrader

    Aw come on I thought you were along with me for 300 pips on the kiwi. Why you bailed?

  • AMCabrera

    I made close 90 pips on the top one I still have my aud/usd and I still have a 8350 short which is smaller going.

  • newbfxtrader
  • AMCabrera

    I still have aud and nzd shorts. I still expect the kraken to drag these two down.

  • newbfxtrader

    They are suggestions. use it like you would any other indicator like RSI or something. Plenty of videos posted by mole. Just browse through them. On trend days I completely disregard the signal and BTFD or STFR as the case may be. Just watch some of the videos and you will get the idea.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m still in Newb.   

    Nice to see it drop about 30 Pips right after 4PM.    

  • newbfxtrader
  • newbfxtrader
  • itcomesupinwaves

    yen crosses lol..

  • AMCabrera

    indeed lol

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ZeroFX – it was a lot tougher to implement as I have no market data. Some stuff had to be simulated and it’s not as smashing as the ES version. IF there was more interest then I could get some real market data from Hotspot but I frankly think that only a handful of people are looking at the ZeroFX. I may even turn it off next year as I have other stuff in the works that I expect to meet more widespread interest.

  • AMCabrera

    I wonder how violent the last two days will be.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Since the Mole signals received some praise today I wanted to share today’s corpus delicti.

  • itcomesupinwaves

    AUDJPY 10 min update: 

  • Skynard

    That’s nice:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Is it because you dont have volume in FX? I have found it hard to trade compared to regular zero.

  • Skynard

    Putting some longs back on, /ES & /QG.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    1427, ma100 hourly straight ahead.

  • Skynard

    1460 by Fri and will short the piss next week:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb

    did you unload the SPY 146′s?

  • Skynard

    Oh ya, unloaded those on strength yesterday. Put some silver calls in play now:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Evil_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Took off AUD shorts, want to keep some profit:)

  • AMCabrera

    Im putting in a short order at 88.00 for aud/jpy the daily chart looks intriguing. 

  • Skynard

    That was the hard part Newb, the rest is all down hill:)

  • Th3_Acist

    Thinking of adding to my nzd/usd short from the 100 hr cross, anyone else short?

  • Skynard

    Thought this was worth posting, /ES weekly.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yup yup.

  • AMCabrera

    is the pope catholic 

  • Skynard

    This thing moves in .5% increments…….

  • itcomesupinwaves

    nvm

  • captainboom

    VIX close must have updated after I looked at it.  I agree, no step 1 confirmed, but I wonder if it can be called ‘close enough’?  I guess we’ll see.

  • itcomesupinwaves

     Isn’t a Dec VIX settlement of 16.69 kinda high considering seasonality?

  • captainboom

    Inside day on AAPL today.

  • Joe_Jones

    Please don’t turn off zerofx. I use it with ES zero. It gives additional insights if a move is real or not.

  • Joe_Jones

    end of the World violent ;-)

  • AMCabrera

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_6000
    pssh actually I wish it was ..we still have a while because the real deal says otherwise.

  • Joe_Jones

    Love the post Mole. 
     

  • Joe_Jones

    @amc lol, there is a probability I may miss the real deal.

  • wvobiker

    Super sharp wake-up call Mole. Thanks

  • AMCabrera

    what are you doing up so late.

  • AMCabrera

    usd/cad looks nice too for a long.

  • itcomesupinwaves

    GBPCHF order book is looking interesting again

  • AMCabrera

    usd/sek makes me shiver too.

  • itcomesupinwaves

    Can you see an order book for that or because it could be a double bottom?

  • AMCabrera

    no i cannot but yea that what I like so much about it (double bottom)

  • AMCabrera

    I havent seen orderbook today or yesterday. Does anyone know him btw? 

  • AMCabrera

    lemme guess Huge amount of data about to be dumped. I can tell by the jerk and jives.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yes, major data dump today. Starting 0830 with USD and CAD related numbers. 

  • AMCabrera

    lemme guess revision of exceptions were revised slightly upwards which were revised to exceptions slightly sideways to be revised to meet preliminary data?

  • newbfxtrader

    lol

  • Skynard

    Took long here at 19 level on /SB, missed the train:)

  • Skynard

    Wow, dollar tanking again:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did anyone go short copper at the 100-day SMA?

  • itcomesupinwaves

    In other words boosted by government spending? LOL

  • Skynard

    /QG rocket launch:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, who am I kidding…

  • Skynard

    Was watching last night and thought about it but did not pull the trigger.





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