Point & Figure Update

Here’s a good tip for you: Do not ever visit Paris in the winter. It’s cold, it’s gray, it’s rainy. Everyone is in a crappy mood, and most above all pretty much every other person you run into carries the hanta virus or some other nasty seasonal malade. Which they are happy to pass on to you I might add as misery apparently loves company. All that cheek kissing they practice over here is nothing but a scheme to pass on your recently acquired kudos to another hapless victim.

Not to harp on the French by the way – the above applies to pretty much most of of Northern Europe. In fact I love France in general but I never much cared about Paris – and you can double that sentiment for Paris in the winter. Suffice to say I didn’t have much of a choice here (trust me I was trying hard to get out of this one) and I’ll probably pay for my failure with a week of fighting the flu or at least a nasty cold. If I manage to survive this trip without coughing up blood on Tuesday it should be recognized as a bonafide miracle by the catholic church.

I promised you a post on Monday but then realized that I won’t have any Internet access as I’m checking out of my hotel tomorrow morning. So I decided to instead put up a quick point & figure update – it won’t be extensive by any measure as I’m not feeling so great and very much hope to catch up on some much needed sleep. Thus I ask you to forgive me if I ‘call this one in’ ;-)

You may recall that our P&F chart has been pointing toward a preliminary PO of 1550 since late December. That apparently wasn’t bullish enough as we now have a bullish PO of 1615. Call me a skeptic but let’s not forget that this is a LT chart. Even if we wind up touching new SPX highs then we won’t get there in one big swoop. Not with a VIX reading near the 13 mark – nothing is impossible but I wouldn’t bet my house on it. More likely we’ll see a wash out followed by continuation.

Either way the P&F is showing us pretty significant resistance at 1470 – a push above 1475 would probably lead to acceleration and a continuation of the short squeeze – low VIX readings notwithstanding. This chart (and the lack of reversal signals) are the reasons I have been pretty hesitant about calling a top here.

Here’s the regular LT panel duo – as you can see there’s really nothing blocking continuation higher – no long term SMAs or some sort of net-line. The one technical hurdle I see here is the same as on the P&F – the 1470 price level. So let’s not over think this and stick with that.

A few weeks ago I sported this AAPL P&F chart and announced that wherever this one goes probably goes the rest of the market. Despite the rather ambivalent gyrations as of late (e.g. no participation in the current rally) I would maintain that the one key level on this chart is the 500 mark. As long as AAPL manages to remain above its magic 500 mark equities should be safe from a major correction. If we see a drop below then I would consider it our canary in the coal mine and start looking at medium to long term short setups in equities.

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

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Alright, off to a quick dinner and then it’s right into bed. Perhaps you could keep your fingers crossed that the Mole may be spared the great French pestilence of 2013. See you all on Tuesday once I’m back in cozy (and comparatively warm) Valencia.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Sunday, January 13th, 2013 at 2:36 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.


  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Get some warm soup Captain, and sleep.
    Lack of sleep is the Devil’s Flu Playground.

    I’m not bitchin about the cold, but coler in Phoenix than Main in January?, that’s just whacked!

    http://s1.postimage.org/c6xefv1f3/global_whack.png
    -Gerb

  • RacerXX

    Get well soon Mole!
    :-D (not being a jinx or anything..)

  • http://twitter.com/lupicinodineve Lupicino Di Neve

    Alte kameraden !! warm red wine plus 1 spinned egg, sugar & cinnamon powder !!
    Voila !! you become in a new panzer tank !!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s just nuts. BTW it was just snowing here.

  • Skynard

    Just tell me FL will get snowed in, will ya. Still long OJ:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    January is your best shot.
    but no one needs a Quant for that. ;-)

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/43/Florida_snow_by_month.png

  • badflightrisk

    Still nice and toasty here in Florida.  Lately anything in the high 70′s has been a cool day

  • newbfxtrader

    Trade something else. Fantastic weather here!

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    @molecool:disqus
    Hope you feel better soon.
    Chicken bullion, tea with honey and if all else fails Vodka with Tylenol

  • Skynard

    Hehe, yes just reversed my short. Looking for a ST bounce and thought this would be an appropriate time.

  • Skynard

    Lol, think price moves north as most commodities have perked up a bit.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    @Gerbil_Gold:disqus 
    DG, are you here?
     I want to show you something. Need your opinion

  • Skynard

    Here is a chart.

  • Skynard

    Trying a long with div on the daily.

  • Skynard

    /NDK tagged 11k, that looks juicy. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yo.

  • newbfxtrader

    ya but the yen needs to stop falling for that to come down.

  • Skynard

    Been watching, think it re-tests the high around 11500 or so. Just dipping toe again. Stops in:)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Give me a second, let me copy it here

  • Ronebadger

    France …  tell me about it…. As my uncle used to say:  “The problem with France is that they speak French there…..and, the French people live there.”

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     I first notice this T back in October 2012 and we talked about it in comments to this post: http://evilspeculator.com/?p=31646#disqus_thread

    I am no expert in T Theory, but from what I remember of work of 
    late/great Terry Laundry – this one is a finely brewed Bergamot T.  His
    famous Advance-Decline(A/D) Oscillator looked really really similar to
    NYMO, and since he never revealed how exactly he calculated the thing,
    well, NYMO it is.
    Traditionally, T has a centerpost at A/D split double-bottoms. The
    problem with this is that Nov 15 and Dec 28 bottoms may be too far
    apart, not only in time but also in price level of NYMO. Even forget
    about oscillator, SPX hardly looks like double-bottom. All that aside it
    projects into summer 2013, which is entirely possible.
    Conservatively, T starts at left bottom, and since it is  no doubt a
    V-bottom on SPX and extreme reading on NYMO – here you go – rally into
    spring. T End Date will be sometime in April, I will figure out the date
    when we get there.

    Overall it looks like the same scenario as two previous years – ramp
    into spring, summer range, double or multiple top and crush.

    More tea, dear Sir?

  • newbfxtrader

    http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?week=jan20.2013

    BOJ meeting next monday 21st. Then they will say whether they will go ahead with the 2% plan of Abe. If they dont deliver yen shorts will get squeezed. 

  • Skynard

    Hum, seems like perfect timing.

  • newbfxtrader

    Its going to be interesting. Abe doesnt realise what he is doing. Japan cannot really afford 2% inflation. Their debt is so high that a 2% increase in rates will just bankrupt the country. Whatever happens will be similar to whats going to happen over here a few years later. Japan will reach the Keynesian end point earlier.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    All very good.  and I reviewed the old chart just to refresh.

    The smallest T, ending soon, I fully agree with.
    The descending NYMO highs created the thick brown line, and the plunge to -100 and resultant skyrocket up, created a break in that line, which defines a shift from accumulation to distribution.

    The other two larger T’s however nice, I disagree with and I’ll share my opinion and what I’ve learned from  Terry.  The low near NewYears was not low enough.  In fact it doesn’t even qualify at -40.  Go look at the earlier 2 year chart.  only lows of -80 would I consider.  Terry said, “if a low doesn’t go low enough, then the rebound is weak, typically in creating a fail setup where there just isn’t enough buyers and confidence to go higher.”

    The T into spring has a shot at being legit, but there is go guarantee where the price of SPX would be at that time.  It would be something to jot down in your notes/calendar ‘to keep an eye on’.  Otherwise, you’ve got T theory in your blood.

    -DG

  • Skynard

    /ES running:)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Thank you.
    Yes, you are right about December bottom.
    That is actually why I waited so long and was so bearish about “Santa”. I was expecting more down, even lower low, and sold a large portion of portfolio by mid-December.
    Do you think that there “must” be a reaction down after Brown T runs out?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Terry used a FAGIX:VUSTX ratio chart. [Confidence Indicator]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAGIX:VUSTX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58727723499

    I was bearish in November, but went neutral by T-urkey Day.
    as you can see the median was trending up in December,
    so all the F Cliff talk while concerning, was not ‘the end of the world’.

    NO. there is never a “Must”.  but the probability is higher at that point in time.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Yes, I’ve been watching and using it for years, and I think it’s not acting right over past couple of years. Needs a trend or something…
    Here is a 20yr chart.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    oh good, so you know about it.
    Yes, it’s in Fibrillation cycle shock. ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Outstanding post for an ill person. I think the bus has to empty further before we correct meaningfully.  At SPX 1495 we got some serious resistance on the weekly and monthly chart, respectively the top 100 and 25 BB. 

  • Joe_Jones

    then again, the volume abyss above is a serious challenge. Or is it?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m following FAGIX:VUSTX as well and have been seeing a tiny divergence recently. However it’s mostly been pointing up so I would not put too much stock into it.

  • G0rd0n_Gekk0

    evILL.speculator , get well soon

  • Skynard

    Wow, check out AAPL pre-market. Dipped below 500, eeeek!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Now that should capture our interest indeed. Indexes busting higher with AAPL dropping. Let’s see if it holds – there was a news report about them cutting supply orders for the iPhone 5.

  • Skynard

    Indeed, that was the level to watch as you indicated. Not good for the bulls at all:)

  • Joe_Jones

    it appears so. too much of a challenge for the bulls

  • Skynard

    Baldy at 1600 hrs, sell at market close:)

  • Joe_Jones

    America is getting saturated with I-crap, and the competition  is biting huge chunks into their margins. APPL’s parabolic rise to heaven is over unless they can come up with some real innovation right away.

  • Joe_Jones

    Great idea. LMAO!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    the Market will close green I’m sure.
    but it will be a close shave.

  • Skynard

    /NKD looks toppy, see what happens. Say were getting close:) Thought by now would be stopped out.

  • Darkthirty

    Ray Merriman has 1/12 & 1/16 as interesting dates

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    looks like old story rehashed..but still affecting mkt

  • Ronebadger

    elaborate please

  • Joe_Jones

    just google his name

  • Ronebadger

    oh, so that’s why people have their heads in the clouds….to get closer to the planets and stars, I guess

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Hi mole, I was noting a correlation that the last mole arrow on the friday almost always gets it right for the short-term direction for ES on Sunday-Monday pre-market direction. Probably note it offhand for 3 times in Dec and Jan. But I dont have the data sheet to backtest or verify. Are you able to verify it if you have the data storage for the past few mths… that’s of course only if u r keen. tks!

  • Darkthirty

    Badgers prefer to dig holes.

  • Joe_Jones

    Well, bears are having a field day :-)

  • bdoone

     ES 100hr sma: 1461 defended 1st time by bulls. battleground 

  • Skynard

    Hehe, in SPY 150′s. OPX week!

  • itslance

    Financial Astrologer?  Is that like Financial Meteorologist?  Do they use tarot cards?

  • Skynard

    Taking profit /NKD, not over yet.

  • Joe_Jones

    LOL. I have no f clue. Makes an entertaining read though.

  • Darkthirty

    Backtest his previews…..

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    on the hourly it doesn’t look that bad.
    on the 5 min, well, it looks like an M pattern.
    it looks like a good place for an inverted T post.
    but the week is young.

  • bdoone

    January OPEX: In SPX, 11 out of the last 14 Jan. OPEX Fridays were lower than the previous Fridays close.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    78.57%

  • Pervergence

    Looks like a backtest of last weeks 5 min TL……..and the ZL goes flat

  • Pervergence

    Hourly divergence??

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    watching weekly Yen, to see if there’s a reaction at this level.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=YCL&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68265183998

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Cocoa is moving out.
    Can it hold a breakout?
    NIB has a bullish PO 56, that is about 2011 high.

  • bdoone

    Obama press conf. in 10 mins: 11:30am.  Just see on ticker, don’t know details. Just a heads up.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Chart didn’t post

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Shorted RIMM @ 15

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Yep above the Inside Day and Inside Week high 2276
    Holding a triple low since 12/31
    Watching the hourly for an entry

  • newbfxtrader

    They are still around?

  • newbfxtrader

    Damn look at that mole signal! All leechers: you are missing out!

  • newbfxtrader

    @sky if 1.6 doesnt hold on gbp/usd and 1.05 on aud/usd short those suckers.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    your comment is nugatory.
    =P

  • Ronebadger

    you mean like a Milky Way?  I always loved them!

  • Skynard

    Ya, been shorting these ballistic moves. Should see a sell off tomorrow on that POS:)

  • newbfxtrader

    1.63 level failed even on massive risk on in gbp/usd and 1.06 failed in the face of massive risk on in aud/usd. Translation when the ship turns these will be decimated.

  • Skynard

    Whoa, WTF! Here we go:)

  • bdoone

    DELL popped a buck, shares halted.

  • Curiousmind3861

    look at the weakess in CHF today..unreal.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Woah – that one was awesome!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m at the airport – boarding in about an hour. Can’t wait to get out of here, it just started to snow! Yuk….

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m at the airport. But email me at admin@ and we’ll cover it tomorrow. Thanks for the input.

  • Curiousmind3861

    that means market will tank once you take off right? :-)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    AMC AWOL, wonder if the flu got him?

    not exactly froth, but choppy.
    [/ES]
    http://s14.postimage.org/6ec5nie0x/frothy.png

    (yuck, someone just reheated their seafood lunch in the microwave.)

  • Skynard

    Thanks for checking in for the heads up:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    Friendly advice: don’t put your nuts in the microwave ;-)  

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ROFLMAO.

  • Skynard

    Baldy should say something stupid enough to propel the market to 1500:) Can hardly wait!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I forgot (slaps head) ….a like for you.

  • ridingwaves

    wow..they are punishing vix bears….though vix is up…

  • ridingwaves

    long tvix for a beating…

  • Joe_Jones

    Jeez, today’s price action was just plainly stupid.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    vs what?  regular stupid?

  • bdoone

    Brain-numbing like Friday, Thurs, Weds…

  • Joe_Jones

    Like “should have gone fishing instead” stupid

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    we had to take that chance.
    Mole was traveling. ya’know.

  • AmazingLarry

    Lemme guess, the ZeroEdge article of the day reads something like “PPT vigorously defends $500 AAPL.” 

  • bdoone

    Just hit: 
    Must. Defend. $500

  • AmazingLarry

    Tom, tell him what he’s won!!!

  • bdoone

    Another fun filled day tomorrow of watching AAPL dick around $500 and SPX 1470. 

  • itslance

    You definitely have some stones holding overnight!  Good luck!

  • Skynard

     Ewwwwww, no not that!

  • Skynard

    Eying them up, those levels have held thus far. Expecting some dollar pressure?

  • newbfxtrader

    I think those levels will break. If this was a risk on week we should have seen some moves already. But I dont want to overcommit until those levels break.

  • Skynard

    /DX hourly, first div played out, the extreme one did not. Daily, weekly, monthly all look like crap.

  • newbfxtrader

    Not denying that. Pull up a one year daily chart of aud/usd. You will see we have been range bound from about 1.01 to 1.06 for over half a year. Unless the range breaks to the upside the default play is to short at top of range.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Being a cycle guy, I’m looking for a turn.
    But what if its a trend?  
    well, it might look something like this.  

    http://s1.postimage.org/4dpu24sv3/cycle_or_trend.png

    Always have to be on the lookout.

  • Skynard

    Do see that on the daily, pierced the upper BB. Look at the weekly and monthly charts.

  • newbfxtrader

    Lol yes. But pullback first dont you think? After pullback I wont be shorting the Aussie trust me!

  • Skynard

    /6B has a weekly NLSL @ 1.6009, /6A weekly abound 104 area. Would consider the weaker one short for sure:)

    Expecting one this week, waiting to pull the trigger and “POUNCE”!!!

  • newbfxtrader

    Already short on that one. If 1.6 fails I will load up. Failed breakout last week. GBP not looking strong.
    http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/gbp-usd/2013/01/14/Forex_Analysis_GBPUSD_Classic_Technical_Report_01.14.2013.html

  • ridingwaves

    It’s still hugging the 360sma with the 50pushing it down….though it’s now the furthest below that moving avg. in a long time…

    over the last 3 years it’s been very bad on your account balance going short during earnings season 

  • Skynard

    Lol, agree 100%:) Thick it goes lower though until earnings and then rocket:)

  • Skynard

     Well, think that is the safest bet. Can not see it going much lower regardless:)

  • newbfxtrader

    @sky /nkd looking good for a short. But I would like to see a green candle on /6j.

  • Skynard

    Div now on the daily. A big one!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • newbfxtrader

    Might need a sacrifice to the gods to make that happen…

  • ridingwaves

    long /SI looking for 32.30…

  • Th3_Acist

    Short GBP/USD hoping to ride her down again…

  • Curiousmind3861

    EURCHF up 300 pips in the last 2 days, CHF being sold hard, I guess all is well now?? or weird thing to come??

  • Skynard

    Wow, no kidding!

  • Skynard

     AUDJPY, a little profit taking:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    EUR/CHF has been dropping for 3+ years.
    that would make an excellent left side of a Large T.
    he he he (evil grin)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s about Time (little pun there)

  • Skynard

    Sell the greed:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    and what if all of January was a flyiing turd.
    one can hope.  was it you that doesn’t chase gaps up?

  • Skynard

    Especially at the end of a hyper move!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Lines up with 100 hourly.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    JPY - Preliminary Machine tools order coming up in a few hrs?

    http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

  • Skynard

    Impressive move, wow!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    AUD/JPY is falling, but /es is not.
    will /ES move in sympathy?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    AMC should be here.  he’s probably upchucking from a flu.

  • Skynard

    I’m shorting, it will follow for sure! That is considerable now:)

  • Joe_Jones

    Wow! It’s almost unreal!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    /es 1463, I think I see a neckline there.
    hope you get 1462.

  • Skynard

    It will dump! Daily NLSL @ 1551.25

  • Darkthirty

    Looking for 1456

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    oh ho, we have some people on tonight.

  • Darkthirty

    Always lurking  not always something intelligent to say

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    well, 1462

    not an easy ride.

    http://i.imgur.com/8V6Pd.jpg

  • Joe_Jones

    loading audjpy shorts on the bounce

  • Joe_Jones

    and in eurusd too

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I think you and Sky are moving the overnight (Market) single handedly. ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    wheeeee :-)

  • Joe_Jones

    LOL! I wouldn’t even dare to think about competing against a machine. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    so.  Is this part of the Mole curse?
    readers want to know..

  • Joe_Jones

    Curse? No…  Blessing, my friend, true blessing

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    well yes, blessing.
    it’s a curse of MOle’s because he’s not avail to participate.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I think I’ve found my edge..

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=m5

    ..sacrifices. ;-)

  • Skynard

    EURUSD Daily

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    EURUSD not there yet? 1.35 possible..before pullback and eventually 1.40?

  • Darkthirty

    Maybe get some gaps closed today

  • Skynard

    Reversed /ES 57.5, now long

  • Darkthirty

    Can’t remember the calc  but I was looking for 1456, what do you use for bottoms /tops?

  • Darkthirty

    Been watching the NVI on TOS (POS is more like it)

  • Skynard

    Support/resistence, volume, and my gut:) Would have expected a larger move as well, we did not get. Could be saving it for market open, we’ll see.

  • Darkthirty

    You seem to hit them pretty good

  • Skynard

    Have a couple other indicators as well.

  • Darkthirty

    EW count doesn’t seem to be complete, unless this is a C of a 4th wave

  • Darkthirty

    Had a sweet setup before the algos  took over, used to let my 5 year old granddaughter call the turns! Still works but the charts lag and stall.

  • Darkthirty

    Retail, PPI, NY Fed @ 0830. Business inventories @ 1000

  • Darkthirty

    out,no position yet

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸





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