Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Ole’ bucky is getting stomped again. No big surprise – after all, slamming the gate at important inflection points has been the name of the game and has served to keep the greenback from gaining traction. It’s been going on for years and it’s where we need to get positioned to effectively hedge ourselves against the destruction of our fiat currency. Anyway, let me climb off my soap box – yes, I’ll be here all week.

The ST chart shows us a potential failure of the 100-hour which was preceded by a failure of the 25-day SMA earlier in the session. I would be short here with a stop below the dropping 100-hour.

Natgas seems to be testing its own 100-hour. Long right now with a stop below.

Bonds – the 10-year may be painting a last kiss goodbye. I’m short with a stop above. However, this puppy may bust higher and I’d flip it for a long if we make it above the 100-hour (which is still rising).

NZD/USD  has been range bound in recent days. Long right now with a stop below the SMA if she manages to creep above those two entangled SMAs. Not interested in a short for obvious reasons.

USD/CAD – long near the 25-hour. Seems like great support – let’s see if it continues.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 17th, 2013 at 8:16 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    they just whacked gold.
    oh why did I roll out of bed today.
    /sarc

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    NDX watch 2750 for break out

    NDX weekly

  • Skynard

    Whoa, things are getting interesting. Some large moves in the making, about FN time!

  • tradem4alpha

     That is also a IHS (same measured move), which broke above the neckline with the New Year gap. So if we don’t fall below 2700, then we should go to 2900.

  • Ronebadger

    Maybe we’ll get close now to the 13th DeMark blowoff

  • Skynard

    If the /DX can get above that 80 mark it could be off to the races:)

    Added VIX & SPY puts.

  • Joe_Jones

    I think we get there by Friday.

  • itslance

    Skynard:  Re-Net lines & NR scripts….if you could post them again, I’d really appreciate it!

  • Skynard

    Has anybody else notice that the SPX has been lagging /ES past few days?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Wana play something fun?
    SCTY
    No indicators, so support/resistance, no earnings, no price history.
    Buying half
    Lets see what she can do

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    No problem Bro, will post later in the day:)

  • itslance

    Awesome! Thank you!

  • itslance

    SPX broke the Sept high….why are we not accelerating upward?  Also of note, if any rats are interested, AGRO is at the 100day SMA and IRE is retesting its recent high and is extremely overbought.

  • Ronebadger

    Promise?

  • Ronebadger

    Why?  There’s selling into the “expected” acceleration upwards…

  • captainboom

    I know ToS has issues with sequentials, but I’m at a 12 count on the SPX weekly.  Wouldn’t surprise me to get another week (or more) up, to get to the 13.

  • Joe_Jones

    Promise ;)

  • Pervergence

    Gold right back up after the big red stick………

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yeah, just noticed that.
    looks much more impressive on the futures than the GLD.

  • StrikeFirst

    SPX hourly:

  • Pervergence

    GG clear of the 25 and 100hr and above the 25 day smas………maybe 100day sma next stop

  • bdoone

    Isn’t ES FV about -5 so they’re in sync now?  Maybe optical illusion: it seems every day SPX closes 4pm and ES sells off about 3pts by 4:15, then next day they play catch up all day until the close and do it again.
    Just a thought.

  • Ronebadger

    So, by your count, THIS week would be a possible 12 count?  Maybe, next week would be 13?

  • Skynard

    Slight div 5 min, VIX at extreme low now. Wow!

  • Skynard

    Right on, just have noticed this recently.

  • ridingwaves

    banks are red…but green with fed Money…

  • FSUinArizona

    TDA go out?

  • Skynard

    Ya, same here. Nothing yet.

  • Skynard

    Quit these days, looks like your all over it though:)

  • bdoone

    TICK 1min chart: closed>0 44/45mins 98% is in itself very bullish BUT ES is still at opening price levels.
    Whole lotta buying pressure with no liftoff.

  • captainboom

    Yes, using the default Sequential indicator in ToS, which I’m told isn’t perfect, this week looks like it will be a 12 count on the sell countdown.  Here’s a screen shot of weekly SPX.

  • Darkthirty

    Time to crank crazy train…..

  • Skynard

    Whole lotta folks looking for that 1500 mark:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    crazy indeed.  took out the last 5 days highs and the monthly pivot.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p85646380114

    EDIT: but look at the MA trend, self explanatory.

  • Ronebadger

    MACD divergence on that chart as well

  • Skynard

    Newb, looking for a place to short /NDK were you:)

  • Darkthirty

    Yeah, well time to go over the top, you’re either in, or in the way. Can’t help a short scalp

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    /ES looking for longs to puke a bunch up if we breach ~ 1471, highest vol 5 min candle this week and currently right at the day traders typical LIS, the 50ma on the 5m  

  • Darkthirty

    Whole lotta points in those candles on a minute chart, plus we got POMO bux in there

  • bdoone

    There sure are, bulls and bears alike; however, we know how the market likes to disappoint when ‘everybody’ is waiting on certain level!

  • Skynard

    Makes sense, right at gap support. That’s where I would be as well:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Ah thx. Will try some. 

  • AMCabrera

    I still have my shorts in the aud/usd and I have not added anything nor looked at anything. I see that the aud/jpy has annihilated every conservative stop-loss setting person, too funny.  Its been a while and I think I have waited long enough. Im going short the eur/gbp with a stop at .8370. Ok back to sleep I go.

  • Darkthirty

    again

  • AmazingLarry

    Textbook TL backtest and squeeze. I picked the wrong day to stop huffing paint! Agreed on the 100.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    alright, one of you two is lyiing, and I intend to get to the bottom of this!

    http://s7.postimage.org/8d56zowij/temp1.png

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    took a partial eur/usd short on the hourly RTVS with IB

  • itslance

    New SPX highs and the VIX and MACD show divergence

  • Joe_Jones

    I’m just waiting patiently for the sucker game to complete before boarding the empty bus.

  • Joe_Jones

    5 min ES is starting to look parabolic: me likes it ;-)

  • Y KW

    Caution on the Euro hourly RTVs as it was on the back of an IP … this changes the picture quite dramatically.

  • itslance

    Looks like you may be a day early fulfilling your promise to Ronebadger ;)

  • Joe_Jones

    LOL. OPEX is sooo predictable.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    would that be the one going DOWNtown?
    hehe

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’m seeing a gold T in the futures.

  • Joe_Jones

    Precisely, the one with the broken brakes and bear body parts splattered all over it

  • Skynard

    Lol, is that what you call it? Maybe blow-off, SPX 82 and pull the rull on triple witch:) EVIL!

  • Skynard

    Was that a buy Y KW?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    just go easy, there’s still room compared to last March’s irrational exuberance.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41785563266;-)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    HYG new high, week, month and since 2009
    DeMark weekly Countdown Sell 13, but also in new momo (Setup Sell) from 12/31

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    a man of few words.
    and rare speakings.
    *an omen*

  • bdoone

    ES daily R3: 1478.75  A little more parabolic to get there for a short entry would be nice.  On a +1000 exhaustion TICK would be twice as nice!

  • Joe_Jones

    Hehehe, that’s how we like it. Hourly still doesn’t look parabolic enough, but we are getting there. SPX 1495 is my target. I won’t pile in though unless I see the shape of the Eiffel tower on the 5 min. 

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/83b2a0fc-83a3-4ccd-a238-31fe717cc0cd/2013-01-17_1242.png

    That branch right outside my window slammed into the ground while I was typing the above comment. Obviously, I do not let my son play on that side of the house. 

  • Y KW

    Still is until this RO … imo it is vital to understand the context of the setup as much as the actual rules of the setup … not all setups are created equal.

  • Joe_Jones

    noticed the neg div with the Sept 2012 high?

  • Joe_Jones

    Yep, I’m in no hurry.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    true.  the ratio is a wee bit lower, but as I look at the SPX it’s about 6-15 pts higher from Sept high.

  • Skynard

    Looks like one here, just added my last option play of the day. Should know something by EOD:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    JJ, The timing is about right.
    of course, no single indicator should be used alone.

    http://s7.postimage.org/3tvawjfvf/time.png

  • AmazingLarry

    If mr VIX wants to catch up to it’s daily BB it better get a move on…it’s about to cross 10. I effin love it. 

  • Skynard

    Eeeekkkkkkk! Long that puppy!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    10?  I’m showing 13.29
    don’t tell me TOS sucks that bad.
    EDIT: oh, you refer to the BB.

  • Joe_Jones

    nice

  • Joe_Jones

    He meant the lower daily BB 

  • Y KW

     I did not want one of my 12 setups getting a bad wrap … the same also applies with the application of the IP!

  • Darkthirty

    TOS = POS

  • itslance

    VIX and SPX both rising

  • itslance

    Hope you guys are awake!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I imagine the good ones are busy making coin.
    the others, well, damage control! ;-)

  • Mishka D

    Evil, did the trend alerts go out today ? i didnt receive mine ?

  • Joe_Jones

    in days like today, I always wonder who are the geniuses who decide to go long after a parabolic ramp.

  • itslance

    I was just wondering the same thing.  Here comes the next leg. Just passed through the upper BB for the 100 day. Wonder if we make it to 1491.99?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    well, for starters, you have short covering – got to buy that position back before it goes even HIGHER. 

    then, you have the call writers who issue calls for a strike price unimaginable months/days ago, 
    and sure enough it goes there and they gladly hand over the underlying stock to a retail muppet.

    then there’s the whole mind job, of well if it’s going higher, I want IN ON IT.

    did I miss any?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Let me check – I think they did. Make sure you didn’t remove your profile from my mailings.

  • bdoone

    Retail who have been told over and over again the past 2 weeks to buy a breakout above 1475 because its ‘smooth sailing’ to new highs after that…and we know what happens once shorts cover and retail jumps in!

  • Darkthirty

    short scalp

  • Mishka D

    i got it yesterday but not today, please check

  • Mishka D

    my profile is fine to receive all mails so i dont know what happened





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