Tuesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Crude – nice touch of the 25-hour and possible support to get positioned. It’s been tested for a while now and the idea is that it’ll start holding and leading up. Don’t waste too much time here – either it gets into gear or we move on. Mind the hourly NLBL above which is about to expire.

CAD/JPY really got stomped overnight. Possible support and I would like to start seeing higher highs and higher lows here. Speculative setup but I do like that it already sliced through and snapped back. Could be the beginning of a floor pattern.

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Cheers,

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 22nd, 2013 at 8:49 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Cocoa is back in a box. Did the breakout failed?
    Daily chart looks like bear-flag.
    It will trade for 4 more hours, need more bars…

  • itslance

    I’ve been watching SCTY since you mentioned it….you weren’t kidding….that thing just keeps going up!  Might open a position if we get a good correction. 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Another freakin’ holiday today in Valencia. No wonder the economy here is in the shitter…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     I only have half of position. Will add on any reaction

  • Darkthirty

    Might as well be a holiday, nobody can produce anyway

  • itslance

    At least they don’t go on strike every two weeks, like another country I know.

  • Darkthirty

    1-2 i-ii or b? ES

  • itslance

    Can somebody take a look at IRE for me?  It is ridiculously overbought.  I’ve gotten stopped out twice now trying to short it…should I stay patient or just move on to something else? 

  • BobbyLow

    FWIW, I just looked at it and it has been rising since Jan 2.  There is no obvious sign of breaking down at this moment.   IMO, shorting this thing right now is like rolling the dice. 

    If it starts to breakdown then maybe.  I believe there is more risk in trying to get all the move as opposed to missing some of the move and then getting in.  

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – talking about stepping in front of a speeding train. Remember – overbought conditions can easily lead to short squeezes. Context is what you need and there is none. You know – you can always try my setups and see how you fare ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    France – yeah – the day I left they were striking in mid January. I could never live there…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Bank of Ireland?
    it’s been dropping since 2007.
    bloody hell mate, you could be looking at a 3 year rise.
    overbought?  more like oversold!!

  • AmazingLarry

    Speeding train is right. Never bet against the raging Irish. Long until stopped out. No opportunity to short that I see.

  • itslance

    Well, I figured it was worth a try with a small position and a tight stop. :)  I do take your setups when I can….I’m severely limited in my trading setup and can only trade equities at the moment, so I miss out on the FX and futures setups that you post.

  • itslance

    Yeah, I know but it has almost doubled in less than a month and RSI is above 90…that’s what I was thinking anyway

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’ve seen RSI’s and STOchastics embed longer than I care to share.
    switch to larger timeframe.

  • newbfxtrader

    good god. it was above a hundred at some point. why short now? try short some lumber or the nikkei or something.

  • newbfxtrader

    try long fxy then.

  • ridingwaves

    JAG short squeeze is still on…I can’t remember whom ment’d it..thanks for heads up…

  • AmazingLarry

    ME! J/K. Just tried to post but Disqus hates phone browsers. Was waiting for a gap fill to add, but the market waits for no one.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • itslance

    Thanks.  See, I wouldn’t learn anything if I didn’t ask stupid questions ;)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If I had a penny for every dumb questions I asked in my life I would be able to retire to some island.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry about that – I never have problems. What are you running? Get Chrome – it’s available on iOS and Android.

  • newbfxtrader

    no worries. we are all here to help.

  • Joe_Jones

    Unless the hourly support trendline fails, it is another Meh day for me.

  • AmazingLarry

    That’s what I’m using now. Safari was worthless; Disqus ate most of my attempts. Still get a “just a moment” stall out sometimes still… like earlier.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (Gerb whispers, Vanuatu)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    NUGT getting a bid, nuthing to get excited about.

  • Skynard

    Full short /ES @ VWAP:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    AUD/JPY – slipped to 93.44

  • Skynard

    Follow the leader:)

  • Skynard

    /LBS, TIMBER!

  • Skynard

    Completely out of Yen for now:)

  • newbfxtrader

    already. few more weeks to go.

  • Skynard

    Took HUGE profit, waiting for more pullback to long again. That div played out nicely, could not ask for more:)

  • Joe_Jones

    Before we all die of acute boredom watching the tape, let me share with you some LOL moments I got today in my e-mail:
    I’ve accidentally swallowed some Scrabble tiles. My next crap could spell disaster.
     I spent a couple of hours defrosting the fridge last night, or “foreplay” as she likes to call it. After both suffering from depression for a while, me and the wife were going to commit suicide yesterday. But strangely enough, once she killed herself, I started to feel a lot better. So I thought, “Fuck it, soldier on!” I woke up this morning at 8, and could smell something was wrong. I got downstairs and found the wife face down on the kitchen floor, not breathing! I panicked. I didn’t know what to do. Then I remembered McDonald’s serves breakfast until 11:30. The other night, my wife asked me how many women I’d slept with. I told her, “Only you. All the others kept me awake all night!” My missus packed my bags, and as I walked out the front door, she screamed, “I wish you a slow and painful death, you bastard!” “Oh,” I replied, “so now you want me to stay!” A girl I know said the last time she had sex, it was like the men’s Olympic 100 meter final. I laughed, “Over in 9.5 seconds?” “No,” she said, “Eight black men and a gun.” A Catholic boy in confession says, “Bless me Father, I have sinned, I masturbated while thinking about my sister.” “That’s a disgrace,” said the priest, “especially when you have two gorgeous brothers.” A government survey has shown that 91% of illegal immigrants come to this country so that they can see their own doctor.   I’ve just installed strobe lights in the bedroom. It makes the wife look like she’s moving during sex.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I sold out of Cocoa (via NIB)

  • Skynard

    Seen Nat Gas today very close to the 100 daily and shorted /QG. Now waiting for 3.5 to go long if it triggers. Already tagged it, waiting for the re-test.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Never traded it, good thing too – otherwise I’d be singing this song

    [heavy metal]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnHyB9KzQvs

  • JackSparow

    guessing you are outa /SB

  • Skynard

    Short now, that SOB:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The island isn’t big enough for both me and Ivan.

  • JackSparow

    SOB indeed!…I would be too if not for resource constraints.. Good luck!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    LOL.
    well, you better get started..

    http://www.privateislandsonline.com/

  • Skynard

    Hehe, just what the doctor ordered:)

  • ridingwaves

    I think the drawdown numbers on Thursday will be significant or it could be next week with cold spell gripping nation…could be a fake out fade the first move moment coming…

  • Skynard

    Wow, closed the gap!

  • ridingwaves

    the vix has been moving like Shakira’s hips….wow…

  • itslance

    It’s interesting too that SPX is rallying upward while AAPL is languishing below 500

  • ridingwaves

    Shorting the earnings season is bad mojo last 3 years….plus no pomo sales this whole month has setup a perfect vix storm….quite amazing…but squid use ink to get away a lot…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Low VIX is not an actionable trading signal. Based on this chart, VIX is at historically “normal” level. 

  • Skynard

    Real close to Demark’s number. Hum?

  • Skynard

    Long Yen again, ZFX thank you:)

  • AmazingLarry

    Right to target at 100 SMA. Still over 9 days to cover. Shizzam!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    you are in an out faster than a sewing machine.
    is your middle name Singer? ;-)

    http://gotoes.org/sales/SingerSewingMachineManuals/images/SingerSewingMachine.jpg

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     O, no. Not you.
    Listen, I saw Demark a few years ago in New-York. Paid a hefty sum to listen to his lecture. The guy is NUTS, no kidding. Not only that, his record is “meh” at best. Think about it: Market will top on 9th bar, and if it does,t – on 13th. No? ok. Start count all over again…
    It’s like trading 1993-2000 based on EW. Two 5-waivers on the top of one another, 5th of 5th, of 5th…
    DeMark, Gunn, Elliott… I think people can do better by just throwing the darts or something…
    JM2C

  • AmazingLarry

    Took copper off the 25 and daily NLBL. You’ve been warned, it’s going to $3. ;)

  • Skynard

    Understood, just FYI:)

  • bdoone

    I remember the guy in the video saying Demark the ‘daily 13′ had a couple more weeks to  kick in and ’1392 blow-off’ was an important factor.  We got a 2 week grind into 1392 instead.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸





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