AAPL – The End Of The Beginning

I’m drawing a blank on the short term setup side this morning. Unfortunately everything on both the FX and commodities side has already run off and the few setups which presented themselves an hour ago would have been too early for most of you guys over in the States. So as to earn my keep this morning I thought I’d do a quick update on AAPL, which of course has been garnering renewed attention since its drop through the coveted 500 mark.

Let’s start with our fearless P&F chart which, as my subscribers know, has been pointing downward for quite a while now. After some recovery in late December we got a high pole warning on January 4th. On the 14th this chart flagged a triple bottom break-down which triggered the current bearish price objective of 410 (yikes!).

If you think that’s bad then take a peek at my next chart:

Both long term panels are looking rather sad now as AAPL has already breached its 100-week SMA as well as its 25-month SMA. Unless we see an instant reversal today the weekly sell signal is already in the bag. And that one alone leaves the door open for a much lower target. Now including today the monthly panel has five sessions left to reverse the monthly sell signal. If AAPL closes the month below 475ish then this would represent double confirmation of our P&F target and possibly much more.

How equities are going to continue their stride upward without their flag ship symbol is anyone’s guess. I however caution you to blindly start accumulating short positions. As you know I have repeatedly been pointed out that tops are a process, they take time – correctly timing them is almost impossible. And as we all know the bears continue to fight major forces across the hemisphere who have no compunction about flushing our currencies down the toilet in order to keep up appearances until the next election cycle. In other words, don’t fight the Fed, the BOJ, the SNB, the ECB, you name it…

All that said – I do not think that this advance is healthy and as such I am not exposed to the long side (in equities) to any major extend. The bulk of my current equity exposure is balanced out as I make a point of keeping things delta neutral. However, as I said several weeks ago [1] [2] – AAPL should be treated as our canary in the coal mine. A confirmed weekly and monthly sell signal for AAPL in my mind is a first sign of where this bull market may be heading. To quote one of my favorite historical heroes (I know this may be strange coming from a German):

Thank you Winston, I couldn’t have said it better. There’s a storm brewing, pack a cigar and a raincoat.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Friday, January 25th, 2013 at 9:07 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    black? or blank?

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    AAPL, BAM!

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    /CT ruh roh shaggy

  • Joe_Jones

    Let us start the day LOL:

    Joke of the year: Two women were sitting quietly together, minding their own business.
    ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Yeah, I saw that ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Let us see if we get a failed retest of yesterday’s high or whether we climb higher

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What is this – the red pill?

  • Darkthirty

    cigar and a raincoat…..wasn’t that bill clinton?

  • Joe_Jones

    feels real huh?

  • Joe_Jones

    feels like the former so far…

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Hmm significant mole indicator values on ZL

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    The Market is trying to tell me something, I just can’t seem to hear it.
    curious.

    http://s14.postimage.org/g0ehz7001/listen.png

  • StrikeFirst

    Churchill is your hero?
    Frankly, I’m disappointed.

    That fat, murderous bastard holocausted hundreds of thousands of German women and children with his merciless bombing of civilian areas.

    He was a war criminal who should have been tried at the Hague and hung upside down by his testicles.

    Hitler was a saint compared to Churchill, Stalin and Roosevelt.

  • itslance

    something feels funny….a little too orderly and predictable

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Stopped out of EEM.
    Emerging markets have been lagging for days.
    Still will be looking to re-enter

  • BobbyLow

    Good job Moderator.  

    Beat me to the punch.

  • Skynard

    5 min lower panel, notice that.

  • itslance

    LOL! It’s good to be the king! :)

  • Joe_Jones

    As long as ZL stays in negative territory I stay short.

  • itslance

    There is that bear flag forming as well.

  • Joe_Jones

    Let us see what will happen at VWAP now.

  • ridingwaves

    wow…can you pass those cubensis psilocybe shrooms…they must be real good…
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybe_cubensis

    anyone saying Hitler is a saint is also talking to Jim Morrision right now…

  • ridingwaves

    old fashioned squeeze taking place right now in CYCC….above 20/50sma and low float is going to hurt the short boys…

  • StrikeFirst

    Well, since no one in interested in historical truth and accuracy, I will post something market-related.

    78 minute SPX chart.

    In limbo…

  • badflightrisk

    Miners sell off accelerating the last two days

  • ridingwaves

    my svm purchase still green…I wonder if we get a long miner-short spx rotation in Feb?

  • bdoone

    Maybe playing ping pong w/25hr sma 1491.  Its been quite the brick wall recently.

  • Joe_Jones

    That’s better. There are plenty of other forums for debating historical accuracy and conspiracies. Let us bank coin, shall we? ;-)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Yep lower panel , seems like its been awhile since it had large readings

  • Joe_Jones

    I have been watching the sell off in HL after essentially 2 months of side-way movement. I don’t want to catch a falling knife, but I am glad to see lower prices for a potential long position in the next few days.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p74008101753

  • Joe_Jones

    We have a triangle on the 5 min. I am checking AUDJPY and AAPL for a possible advance warning of the next move.

  • itslance

    I really hope we don’t fart around here in a narrow range until Feb

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    just a thought..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04113859091

    the ROC (rate of change) for the 20 needs to go a bit further.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Fucking politicians are killing Solar industry again.
    http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/an-arizona-regulator-sneak-attack-on-commercial-solar
    Arizona, Pennsylvania, New Jersey – just this week. Wait for more announcements.
    If SCTY doesn’t recover by the end of day – will exit and reevaluate next week.
     

  • badflightrisk

    New PO on GDX today at 35

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I wonder how this will impact the very large solar project for APS.
    http://www.aps.com/main/green/Solana/About.html
    no time to investigate.

    so …was SCTY the great company with nice faces?

  • BobbyLow

    AAPL not finding any love not even a DCB.  Perhaps this is yet another fallen star from the Market Universe.  

  • itslance

    It was good for a trade….not betting the farm on it

  • ridingwaves

    big oil is in their pockets…I ran into Barbara Boxer the other day and her pants were stained in crude…

  • badflightrisk

    Don’t worry NFLX is there to take up the slack

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Was I not clear about that?
    SCTY is a new issue, with no earnings history, no analyst coverage, hell – it doesn’t even have a message board on Yahoo.
    May take some time.
    Patience I have, tolerance for losses I do not. With only support at 13.50ish (thats over 10% down from here), I would rather wait without position than hope.
    And look – market is rallying, while SCTY falling. No go-go

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (chuckle)
    I was thinking more AMZN, what a horse.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80789111350

    *no position

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (DG ducks into his hole)

  • StrikeFirst

    Well, unless we collapse from here, we have ourselves what I believe is called a doji sandwich.

    This hints at more upside to come.

  • ridingwaves

    Gerbils are known to attack and often kill those carrying an unfamiliar scent..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yummy - sounds delicious! Pass the mayo please! :-)

  • ridingwaves

    By far and away, the worst financial crack-up in history was Fannie and Freddie. That disaster has cost $142 billion. The knock-on effects of the collapse of these two were devastating. F/F went out of biz on September 7, 2008. The next weekend Lehman blew up. F/F put the nail in the coffin at the “Brothers”, and after that, all the dominoes were falling.
    With that in mind, I’m amazed that AAPL has blown off nearly twice the F/F losses in six-months, and there is not even a ripple in the water. Last night, in a few seconds of after-market trading, the stock got pasted for more than all of the losses for LEH. By the opening, the overnight losses exceeded more than LEH, AIG, GM, and Chrysler combined.
    The market gets smoked for 1/4 Trillion in a single name, and we’re trading at the highs. Go figure.
    from Bruce Krasting blog..

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    JJ, look at that gap.
    [spx/tlt]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p05242235107

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thanks guys!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Let’s not go there, shall we?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    looking at the yearly, it could stay there for a month.
    must sit on hands.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53885513567

  • ridingwaves

    Gold opex is Monday…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    thank you sir.

    http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4457/surviving-gold-opex
    (can I link in here?, moderator pull it out if need be)

  • dma0

    fixed it for weaker minds not remembering history :)
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80402532574

  • itslance

    That’s why mole always harps on us about price being the final arbiter.  That’s also why I got smoked during the previous QE trying to short the market.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/S3QAFXOZK3P3RZ5KLNZGJY4API C

    $395 is the measured move. AAPL is now under the trend line support of the past few years. Also 387 is showing up on charts as a volume area.  Bobby stop by Jellystone sometime.

  • Joe_Jones

    the end is nigh

  • Joe_Jones

    Action on 5 min ZL is definitively interesting given that we are above VWAP.

  • itslance

    FB about to retest recent high

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    okay, so it’s agreed.  1555 by March, based on Fibonacci levels (see arrows)?
    DeMark can kiss my a…nevermind.

    Gann Boxes Rule!
    http://s8.postimage.org/vvo9lxtw3/cheerio.png

    I’m off to lunch.
    ciao.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    +1
    Wait, i am already in line to get ass-kissing from deMark, but you can get in front of me, I don’t mind.
    He’s been spewing this bullshit for years, but people still listen…

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for the invite.  I haven’t been there in ages.  Is it still a Bear Camp?  I had to get away because it was feeding my natural Bear Bias too much.  :)

    I think I remember talking to you about two or three years ago.  It’s been so long, I’ve forgotten your Screen Name and your Avatar and Screen Name here are both blank.  

    Would you refresh my memory?  Gettin old you know.  :)

  • Skynard

    Would like to see one of these div play out for a change, Geez!

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/S3QAFXOZK3P3RZ5KLNZGJY4API C

    Yea it is mostly bears. It has become very political. The deflationists never saw the Fed expanding its balance sheet to infinity and the inflationists never saw that the velocity of money would crash to all time lows. 
    We stagflationists have had  a hard time picking asset groups. Regards, Eric aka ecawrs

  • BobbyLow

    Ok now I remember ecawrs.  You were one of the better traders at  Jellystone.    I don’t know how much time you spend here at ES but I’ve found this place to have the most knowledgeable traders on the net.  We are all about technicals  and making money here.  Yet things are kept as light hearted as possible.  Nobody slams anybody’s trade and you might have seen what happened when somebody tried to post controversial politics here this morning.  It is not allowed.  We could use you here and I hope you jump in and participate when you can.  





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