Friday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The spoos are gyrating all over the place but outside of all the drama we still have a rising wedge/channel which despite fast candles seems to be observed. The lowest and highest boundaries appear safest to get positioned.

In case you missed it – I also just posted yesterday’s video wrap-up on the E-Mini.

AUD/JPY approaching its 25-hour – also there’s a NLSL which should be good for the first few hours of the NYSE session (which opens in 45 minutes of this writing).

Crude really interesting this morning. Obviously there’s the 25-hour that’s leading prices down but also a well defined diagonal. I would use that one as our inflection point. Don’t try to get positioned below – you’ll get torn to pieces.

More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or register for Zero Data Feed (non-recurring) or Zero Data Feed (recurring) or ES Gold (non-recurring) or ES Gold (recurring) or geronimo/ES (recurring) or Zero Pimp-A-Thon to view this content.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Friday, February 1st, 2013 at 8:53 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    Tks mole for the warning against shorting ES. Shorted 0.1 lot and was stopped out when my usual trade size is 10. Worth the subscription! Too bad I aint keen to go long.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    please see medical attention immediately after 4 hrs.

    http://haveababy.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/viagra-323×350.png
    month begins (sheeez)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think you may be overdosing a little. Oh I forgot – it’s weekend already! ;-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Glad to have kept your feet out of the fire. I will update my POMO chart this weekend which strongly suggest that being short equities is very dangerous and should be risked only on a short term basis.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    3pm in Spain already?
    I don’t know how you do it.

  • Ronebadger

    157K jobs added, unemployment up by .1%….please explain, cause I’m an idiot

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How I do what?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Have a life in local time, yet keep an eye across the pond in EastCoast time.

    then code in between, and still have time to say ‘yes dear’.;-)

  • captainboom

    Financial Stress Index still going down as of Thursday’s data.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/STLFSI?cid=32457

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Gov’t lies, unfortunately, they don’t like to be informed about it.

    http://www.urantiansojourn.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/YouLie.jpg

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I read a paper that implied that unemployment ticks up by as much as 0.5% in a final months before beginning of economic expansion. The premise was that more people enter work force, looking for a job, causing rate to spike up for some months.  Following that unemployment takes a nose-dive.
     I remember their statistic being little fuzzy, so take it with a grain of salt

  • Skynard

    short /es 1503

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    SCTY is at it again.
    +5%
    I am not expecting it to hold these gains, but now we have a higher low.
    Higher high will be new all time high
    go-go

  • Skynard

    Hehe, look at Bucky go:)

  • Joe_Jones

    That is quite a drop in VIX

  • bdoone

    And see if TLT gets  some legs above 117.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Ages ago, when I was at university, the Urantians had an information table at the student union. I chatted them up a bit. Pseudo-intellectual charlatans. At least they don’t engage in dangerous social engineering/brainwashing like the Church of Scien _____ . But I digress . . . 

    USD.CAD is still chugging along despite the market erection. Admittedly it’s way too early to say, but we’ve got an inside day candle developing.

  • Skynard

    wow, no kidding. Stopped out.

  • bdoone

    TICK strong, only 2 closes<0 on 1 min.

  • AmazingLarry

    Pure fuckery in gold. The bugs are crawling in their skin.

  • Skynard

    Is that our que?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s been that way since Mid-December mate, where have you been?

  • Schwerepunkt

    If it is a trend day, we could get step one of a VIX sell signal.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    not to beat a dead horse, but I think apropro
    (you first)http://oyster.ignimgs.com/wordpress/www.ign.com/11331/2011/04/Its-a-trap.jpg

  • Joe_Jones

    No yet for me. I would like to see AUDJPY drop first and a neg div on 5 min ZL, confirmed with a blue arrow and hopefully a negative zl reading. If it is a blow-off move, then I don’t want to step in front of a moving train.

  • Joe_Jones

    Definitively a possibility. Squeeze from hell though.

  • badflightrisk

    Looks like they want 14000 for the weekend news

  • bdoone

    42 out of 45 closes>0 on 1min says so but theres gotta be shitload of resistance to get thru here.

  • Joe_Jones

    It was already hit today.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    they?  it’s Mutual Fund monday.
    I’ll stick without the conspiracies. (at least today)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

    oh… why must it be a trend day when i dont want to trade on this happy first friday of feb? 

  • Skynard

    Yep, not yet. Will concentrate on thee commodities side today:)

  • Joe_Jones

    I have no clue how Fearless does it, but his long term outrageous targets have been always spot on. Respect is due.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    something an old trading friend shared with me.
    I’m looking for a tap/touch of a higher line for AUD/JPY.

    http://s18.postimage.org/cr0jcans9/temp1.png

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Respect is due.
    following the 20 is a big part of it. ok, maybe a small part. he keeps things close to the fur.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p75424549702

  • ridingwaves

    2nd month of no fed open market sales only buys…last time it happend was 08-09 2011

    looks like continued steady move north for the masses
    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html?date=113011

  • Darkthirty

    Where did PRS get off to?

  • bdoone

    Hard to put on a short with AUD/JPY on a mission

  • BobbyLow

    Well that was interesting.  

    I had been long the USD/GBP for a couple of days and my stop was in profit.  I got stopped around 9 AM at 1.5797.  There was strong MO MO behind the down move so I Flipped to a Short.  I must have keyed my order twice because I got a double fill on the Short.  After a few PIPs in the right Direction I cut the position in half back to what it should have been in the first place.  Well since then it has really tanked and I shoulda kept the double order.  (Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda)  LOL

    I also got stopped for losses on two CAD Pairs EUR and CHF overnight as the Loonie isn’t ready to rebound against these two yet. 

    But my Short USD/CHF, Short AUD/CHF and Long EUR/AUD are still performing beyond expectations and I’ll just keep moving my stops as nothing is forever.  :)

  • bdoone

    zero gone flat here where it was .5 w/blue arrow earlier.  Not sure if it means strength here for follow thru or underlying strength because still above 0.  Any thoughts?

  • Skynard

    F it, Dow 14k signifigant IMO. Short /ES 1506.5 since the signal still stands and lack of participation.

  • Skynard

    Cutting long /OJ, not over staying my welcome:)

  • ridingwaves

    watching QCOR to see if short covering begins…14 days to cover…

    50sma at 26.88, over the 20, lots of cash, great earnings, paying divi…

    brutal news and short attack game here

  • Skynard

    Guess we are going to GD’s target:) 25 now

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    CCJ is a go
    Huston, we have a lift-off
    Thank you, Herr Mole

  • bdoone

    Thats what I thought but does zero staying above 0 signal underlying strength until it goes neg? Or maybe so in context of a trend day.

  • bdoone

    EDIT: by context I mean maybe if it wasn’t a TD then no participation so short but on a trend day stay away?

  • bdoone

    Is this a neg div on Zero with new highs not confirmed by Zero? Trying to get a handle on it.

  • FSUinArizona

    Keep in mind the TDA

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I don’t know.

  • bdoone

    Yes, last few days these divs have worked but we were just bouncing around, now we have TD and div didn’t work, at least not yet.

  • Skynard

    Ya, got that 14k gold in my mind (shakes head)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    heheheee 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You may misunderstand. Ignore bearish divergences on high probability trend days. You got the e-mail, yes?

    NYSE TICK closed 91.42% above its zero mark. HIGH probability of an Up Trend Day!
    Sample size: 2691 1-Tick bars.

  • bdoone

    Thats what I figured, thanks.

  • ptosh

    pullback in IWM anytime in the near future?  will IWM even fill today’s gap?  next week me thinks.  opinions?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Why wait for a top on a symbol that has not made any suggestions that it’s ready to paint one? Meanwhile there are a ton of better setups out there but no matter – it HAS to be IWM (or SPY, DIA, etc…)

  • ptosh

     thanks.  i’m just a fool still w/o the subscription faked out by the wed. action who went short on thurs and got trapped.  worse still, dug my heels in deep today.  now praying for some sort of dislocating event.  king of the fools i am. 

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    this frothy top could last a while.
    check out last March.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p23871448114

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Jeezes – so much emotion. You need to completely detach yourself emotionally from your trading. Stick around for a while – it’s a process. We’ll sort you out ;-)

  • ptosh

     thanks. been down this road before.  i’ve been at it for years.  and keep falling for the same traps.  crap.  you are an inspiration.
    have a great friday and a great weekend everyone. 

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Are you planning to spend a weekend in this agony?

  • ptosh

     yes.  i’m in deep.  55K shares of tza at 11.015

  • BobbyLow

    Ptosh,

    Been there done that.  I’m certainly no expert but if I may suggest that in combination with following Mole’s lead that you develop your own type of mechanical system that has strict rules that fits your personality.  This is not easy by any means but well worth the effort.  

    This way there is No Praying, No Hoping, Only Doing.

  • ptosh

     thanks.  you are correct.  it’s almost discernible to me when the trade goes from mechanical to emotional, but at that juncture i freeze up, get stubborn.  don’t mean to become the case study here.  i’ve been ehre before w/ simi;lar woes.  as you were
    peace

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     #1. You are short an index that was Leader and outperformer all the way.
    #2. You are down 4-5%. How much are you willing to lose? 7? 10? This is not a rhetorical question. Decide right now, before traditional end-of-Friday ramp.
    #3. Use this weekend to read about position sizing. Start with Turtles – its simple, fun to read and you can use it on Monday.
    #4. Good luck
    JM2C

  • Ronebadger

    can you say “exhaustion”?   (I can’t)

  • ptosh

    i shot the sheriff.  and they say it is a capital offense.  

  • JackSparow

    /6E update

    Next Week may present a good short entry if present strength continues..

    comments / opinions sincerely appreciated

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (DG faints)

  • Darkthirty

    top

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh fuck…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Turtles yes – or you can just read this:

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=24730

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What he said.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think you are playing with too much coin. And I’m pretty certain you have a gambling problem – you’re not trading for profit anymore. There is hope but it’ll take some time to re-program your mind.

  • ptosh

     can’t argue.  i appreciate the frankness.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     Perfect!
    Saved and highly recommended!

  • momac

     how does a person go about re-programing their mind, cause mine needs some work





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