Stepping In Front Of A Speeding Bus

It’s been another tumultuous week and fortunately a profitable one as well – assuming you didn’t trade your emotions and instead followed some of the setups presented here. Someone (name omitted to protect the guilty) asked about the possibility of a top in the IWM earlier today and once again it was time for the Mole (and some helpful seniors) to dish out some tough love. Why in the world would anyone look at the IWM of all symbols and decide that this one had run its course?

Now that day may come Monday or it may come months from now – but unless we accumulate strong technical evidence that suggest that equities are ready to hand the reign back over the bears I humbly submit to do yourself a favor and move on to easier victims. Look, every time you find yourself in a rut in your trading career look in the mirror and ask yourself if what you are doing is aimed at feeding your ego or if it is to bank some coin? Because if it’s the latter it’s hard to equate why anyone would attempt to step in front of a speeding bus. The good news? There is a better way. Stick around and we’ll sort you out in no time. You know our motto: Yes We Can bank coin in this crazy market!

Soybeans – nice entry we get there on Monday and I’m ready to call it a trade as we are running into resistance near the 100-day. I may be looking for a short here next week but would like to see more of a test.

Partial profits on EUR/USD – the entry a week ago paid off handsomely and I don’t see a reason to get out just yet. However today’s candle could be signs of an impending shake-out and I’ll be taking a few contracts off the table.

ICE – we got our inside day (ID) entry earlier this morning and I’m ready to call it a trade. Yes, that was uncharacteristically quick, but I the odds of a reversal this far outside the 100-day Bollinger are pretty high. When you make easy coin get out while the getting is good.

Gold is looking interesting despite the sideways whipsaw we had to endure over the past few weeks. It appears to be painting soe side of sideways triangle – not a perfect one by any measure but the diagonals are converging and have been well defined. This thing is coiling up and I would most definitely like to get positioned once we see a breach to either side. Caveat – we often see a false breach before it picks a direction – you have been warned. I’ll be sure to harp on this one as soon as it’s ready to hatch.

Natgas – the cruel mistress. Interesting on a short term basis near the 100-hour. On the daily we may get a last kiss goodbye of the 25-day – not perfect sure yet. To make things easier for us it’s painting an inside day – just follow the entry rules and you’ll be fine. Take it easy with trading NG – she’s temperamental.

That’s all – time for me to call it a week – my well deserved Hefeweizen is waiting See you all on Sunday – I will put together another update from the POMO front as well as some long term musings on the Euro.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Friday, February 1st, 2013 at 2:09 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • JackSparow

    repost
    /6E update
    Next Week may present a good short entry if present strength continues..
    comments / opinions sincerely appreciated

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • JackSparow

    sure gets the message across loud and clear :) thanks!

  • http://twitter.com/law6 law

    cheers!!!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    you know I like T’s.
    stick one down in that low, and it’s 4 months on the left, 2 on the right.
    you want to risk against 2 more months of up?
    purely speculation..of course.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    whoa, he speaks.
    it’s an Omen!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    *burp*

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Treasuries, whoa horsie.
    dam.  TBT, shoulda woulda coulda.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62887454653

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     No T?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s a new diet.
    no T for you. ;-)

  • ptosh

    inspired piece, mole.  well done.  you write well.  have a well deserved weekend.    

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

     ”There are many health benefits from the oil of bergamot. It is known
    for treating fevers, intestinal worms and controlling anxiety. It is
    also notable that bergamot is a disinfectant and an anti-depressant.”
    http://the-tea-site.com/earl_grey_tea.php

    iBergamot takes the goodness of a small yellow fruit into digital fields of 21st Century. Thru rigorous genetic engeneering and regiment of contrast showers, i-Bergamot treats gambling fever, computer worms, over-trading anxiety and depression caused by disregarding stop-losses.

     More tea Vicar

  • Schwerepunkt

    Tea. Early Grey. Hot.

  • badflightrisk

    Here’s to a close above 14000

  • bullregard

    @Skynard, I closed my NG short over the weekend. Reason is it didn’t have the slightest issue going back and forth over the 3 m volume hole. I do not like this, it could do it again in pre-market for me. I do not have a futures account, have to do with yucky ETFs for now… Are you holding?

  • Skynard

    Still bearish on /NG, think a short squeeze is required before further down move. Actually went long now for a potential gap fill with sell order if it tanks.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    HYG, 6 cents shy of a gap close.
    16 up, 6 down. The Dark Side is more powerful.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p49993582536

    and I didn’t read that terrible hedge site.  those jeans are fitting better already!

  • convictscott

    JackSparrow – Your trading will improve if you stop worrying about direction and instead focus on OBJECTIVELY seeing what is really happening.

    I don’t know (or care) about the longer term picture, I don’t trade that way. What I see from a price perspective is that from November until Jan we were in a rising channel. This type of action is by definition weak bullish. Bulls are driving price up, but bears have enough power to force tradeable swings.We then had a battle for control at the upper boundary, the bears tried numerous times to force price down at resistance. They failed and we broke to the upside. The amount of bearish mojo exhausted in that battle for control would indicate that a decent tradeable move would be to the upside.

    Breaks from the upward resistance of channels of resistance are by definition extremely bullish, since the bulls have shown a willingness to keep buying at a price they *should* be selling. Also they are showing a willingness to buy through a price where they KNOW shorts are accumulating.

    The bulls are firmly in control. Lower timeframe attempts to halt the advance have been squashed. 7/7 bullish closes. Increasing range.

    Thats the bullish side. 

    The bearish side is that super high volatility after breakouts is very toppy action. massive range totally one sided is very different from one sided action with a steady march up.

    This type of move is unsustainable, but you DO NOT WANT TO STEP IN FRONT OF THAT BUS.

    If you are long, take some off the table (id be thinking about banking here)

    Don’t get short yet, wait for a retest. If you are super agressive scale in with a retest on smaller timeframes like 1 ht, 4hr, 6 hr

  • Skynard

    LOL, your welcome:)

  • JackSparow

    Thank you! CS

    I have been bullish on Euro last couple of weeks without a position, as I didn’t get an entry that met my risk threshold.  I have been on the sidelines and at this point that nagging feeling of missing out  is getting to me :) I know I know.. unfortunately this feeling surfaces once in a while irrespective of my commitment to discipline, and this drives my desire to get positioned for a short.. absolutely wrong and my ruleset forbids this NO ANTICIPATORY POSITIONS.. but greed and stupidity pay me a visit  every once in a while and leave their mark.  

    Thank you sincerely for taking the time to explain, your thought process helps me drive bugs out of mine own and hope to be bug free soon.  Have a good weekend!

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    thanks for that; gotta love that  credit
    more NSFW bear porn
    another strong trend snapped hard
    Daily http://screencast.com/t/3rWyzaVHEa
    weekly http://screencast.com/t/wSRdInXT

  • Curiousmind3861

    wow look at EURGBP and USDJPY today, both on steroid…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Daaaaam, BPSPX reversed back up.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p61511725933

    the upside, at least it wasn’t 0.0 (I’d rather get a signal than none-at-all which can happen)
    Thanks to the council of Evil Speculator, and a hard won discipline, I did not try to bear front-run this Bee-yatch.

    I want to see Negative before I provide you with a positive
    http://images.sodahead.com/polls/001672125/4214595011_tyrell_288x288_answer_1_xlarge.jpeg

    -Gerb

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Mrs. Evil loves it.

  • Th3_Acist

    Make it so.

  • convictscott

    Hey I’m also feeling the desire to top pick – never smart! I was laughing with dudeplunger this morning, he feels it too

  • newbfxtrader

    pull up a 10 yr daily on eur/gbp and look at 08-09.

  • newbfxtrader
  • Skynard

    Re-test and BAM!

  • Th3_Acist

    Tyrell Corp +1!

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/Z2AWW4TVSCRRZUSZGPU2FYOJAU Alexander

    “Yes We Can bank coin in this crazy market!” – If you trade futures and forex à la Mole, but I trade equities and options equities! Schade! I have been following your site quietly for about a year now, and just the fact that I follow you for such a long time should be enough compliment already, but I will say it: I really enjoy reading the material presented here. With regards to my 1st sentence, I regret you only give juicy set up’s for the mentioned; however, the spoos analyses can be helpful.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don’t do equities? I must have been dreaming then…

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=33655

  • newbfxtrader

    If you trade the /ES try the zero. Its the bomb!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Ran across this totally by accident, it’s Sunday and no post, so let this entertain you.
    (I hope Fearless sees it)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VDwwOY5j_Bc-Gerb

  • JackSparow

    :) hilarious 





    Zero Indicator

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. search warrant


  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Insurance Is Still Cheap
    2. Don’t buy the dip this time
    3. No Crying Over Spilled Milk (Or Beer)
    4. Entries Do Not Matter
    5. Last Chance For The Bears
    6. Three Strikes You’re Out
    7. Binary Proposition
    8. Time To Wield The Iron
    9. Zone of Fuckery
    10. Whipsaw Galore




  4. yes we can!



    NinjaTrader
    Kinetick