Not Selling This One Just Yet

Nice little shake out today which is probably being rationalized in contradicting ways over in the news department. Not that I would really know as I avoid the financial news feed like a the mental level 4 biohazard that it is. I’ve been dropping ample goodies here in the past two days plus had to take care of quite a few chores behind the scenes, so forgive me if we quickly breeze through a few highlights today. The Mole needs a few hours of R&R.

So they’re scaring the children today – that’s cute and probably a bit overdue. However, I can’t take this serious unless we breach through that daily NLSL at 1491.25. We missed it only by a tick today and if you add the perfect touch on Friday then it’s reasonable to assume that it’s being observed. So that’s great – we’ve got something to hang our trading hats on. Forget anything else you read/hear/think – that’s the line in the sand and it’s good until Wednesday night.

The greenback – I wish it would make up its mind – live or die! Similar considerations as on the spoos – nice ramp today and I like it but unless it breaches that NLBL this may just be a last kiss goodbye. Great spot to be short – unless we breach, in which case it’s a great place to be long. Probably would be a bumpy ride up until it clears the 80 mark. Yeah, I know – the odds of that happening are probably lower than the 49ers traveling back in time and taking the Superbowl.  Great game though…

Sugar looking sweet again. Inside day right at the 25-day SMA – should I say more? Great setup!

Silver – inside day as well but it’s one of those times when I would follow the SMAs instead (see left panel). The ID triggers can be taken but be aware that you may get whipsawed a little before it clears.

Soybeans – we enjoyed a nice ride up and now that we see more context we may have to jump back in. Unless of course it drops through that diagonal (and the 100-day SMA) – in that case I’ll grap some shorts and hang loose.

Last but not least – NZD/USD – excellent retest after clearing that diagonal. If you snoozed the first time then you are enjoying a great setup with tiny risk (put your stop on opposite sides of the NLBL breach).

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Monday, February 4th, 2013 at 2:03 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • AmazingLarry

    n00b question on the silver set-up right here. How do the pros decide which entry is “best” in this current situation as I’m counting like 4 different possibilities.
    1) It’s holding the 25 SMA. Long above, short below
    2) ID. Typical drill
    3) Daily NLBL. Long above short below.
    4) Hourly NLSL matches up with the 100 hr. Same program.

    This is always the most frustrating aspect of trading for me. Which one to take and why? Always the same one, no matter what as to not bend the objective rules? Take a look at all the factors and come up with the most likely (profitable) entry? I’m most apt to try to blend them all together, but maybe that’s my problem? Maybe just scrap it all together because trying to decide in the first place is far too emotionally based? It’s crap like this that makes me want to quit. /whining

  • BobbyLow

    Larry, is there any way that you can back test what you want to know?  For example, go back as far as you can on your chart and write down what would have happened if you had taken the trade under certain sets of circumstances.  You might find that it might have been profitable or not profitable.  

    Silver can be a real bitch and nothing is guaranteed but if you back test different sets of variables then at least you might have some degree of confidence when entering and exiting a trade.

    JMO

      

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    find a better setup.  switch to a larger timeframe.
    ask yourself, where would I buy?, put in an order and walk away. (same with sell)
    do not blend. my drinking friend says avoid whiskies, and stick with single malts.
    the desire to overanalyze comes with risk adverseness.

  • BobbyLow

    Where’d everybody go?

  • Skynard

    Sneaky tape indeed, stick save on the NLSL:)

  • Joe_Jones

    VIX step 1

  • AmazingLarry

    Yes, I have back tested it. I bat about .350 when I do the “blend”..or take the trade that makes the most sense looking at like 10 different factors – MAs, volume, net-lines, TL’s, BB’s, …not even taking into account momentum indicators and the like. Made some great coin last year doing it. Can’t complain.  I’ve learned to be A LOT more patient and “let the market come to me” in the past 6 months, but I still want to learn more and get more solid. My focus is fine, guess I’m just too “flexible.”

    I just used silver as an example. I do the same thing day in and day out with lots of charts and potential set ups: sit and stare at charts and try to eliminate the least likely variables and leave the most likely ones. Thus my question: maybe I’m wasting my time. Maybe I should pick 2-3 criterion that need to be met for an entry, when it hits take it, and that’s the end of it. Fail. Retry. Fail. Retry. Success. 

    Thanks for your thoughts. 

  • bullregard

    My approach is what the TOS model is suggesting too. What I mean is you can have pending long and short signals from independent systems. As one is triggered you can take it, offsetting an existing position or even reversing it, even if the initial position was initiated by a different system. For example, you took a NLBL buy and you are long now. It goes your way until it can trigger a short upper BB signal (hypothetical one). Take that as an exit from the long or even go short. 
    My bigger problem is the one of the hysteresis around the triggers. How far do you allow a trigger to be in to confirm it, how far on the rejection you infirm it.

  • bdoone

    And it only took 100k e-mini’s at cash close to do it.

  • BobbyLow

    “Maybe I should pick 2-3 criterion that need to be met for an entry, when it hits take it, and that’s the end of it. Fail. Retry. Fail. Retry. Success. ”

    As long as these 2-3 criterion have proved to be more successful than not, that’s probably OK.  

    I’ve had similar problems in that what might work great for somebody else sucks for me.  And I also realized that I don’t have to trade everything.  In other words, what ever I do has to fit my personality.  I’ve also gone through countless hours and reams of paper grinding numbers.  At the present time, the only thing that I’m trading is Forex and Oil.   

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I dunno.
    I do know when the comment count drops real low, the Market goes nuts. (calm before the storm) ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Yup. Wednesday should be interesting.

  • beentohardknocksU

    audjpy just went scuba diving.   Got limit buys sitting around Friday pivot points and stop in the money.  Go mole – thanks.  

  • badflightrisk

    Nice back test on KOL.  ACI reports tomorrow and is coiled up for a big move.

  • newbfxtrader

    Heads up Aussie trade balance coming up.

  • beentohardknocksU

    just another plug for the newcomers – exhaustion alert on AUDJPY gave good warning of text book “v” bounce (on 30 min charts) of this pair.  Only regret I did not flip and go long, but closing out with a few more shekels in the bank never killed anyone.  

  • Skynard

    Think that was an exhaustion down/long signal.

  • Darkthirty

    Skynard, do you use the zero?

  • Skynard

     Yes sir, what are your concerns?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (Gerb sneaks an ear to the door)

  • Skynard

     Big one at 2230 though:)

  • Darkthirty

    It won’t let me log in, wants to sell me another scrip. Then in programs it claims to be running. There is an icon, but that wont open either.

  • Skynard

     Are you referring to ZeroFX? Zero not running now, runs through market hours.

  • Darkthirty

    Nope zero gold, I have my own system ,but wanted to see how they’d correlate. Wasted a lot of time pissing around with it today.

  • Skynard

    “ES Gold” gives you the market forecast and daily briefs/set-ups. While the “Zero data feed” gives you everything including ZFX.

  • Darkthirty

    lol ok, i thought it was the data feed. I’ve been trading long enough to not need an “idea” of what the market is gonna do. Shoulda a least got a “will work for food” sign with that one!

  • Skynard

     Jeez, glad somebody does:)

  • Darkthirty

    can i get that credited to the feed?

  • Skynard

    Don’t see why not, it’s worth the extra 20. Especially if you are a day trader.

  • Darkthirty

    maybe, never been a good follower. usually gotta do my own thing, the frickin algos made a hell of a mess of TA though

  • Skynard

    You are not following anyone, use the feed and play ball:)

  • Darkthirty

    negative volume index has been real sweet for scalping lately

  • Darkthirty

    Got it done, $100 instead of $60 – 40% account drawdown already! Omen…..?

  • Skynard

     What did you subscribe too, Geronimo?

  • Darkthirty

    Nope, just the data feed, initial $39+$69

  • Skynard

    You get the Zero Data for 49 recurring. That’s it!

  • Darkthirty

    got the “what maybe might happen” for 39, and the feed for 69, non recurring

  • Skynard

    Oh, ok.

  • Darkthirty

    at a glance, it appears that turns are signaled by red/green/spotty on the same side of the neutral line?

  • Skynard

    Those are the exhaustion signals, red up/green down.

  • Darkthirty

    that’s all you need to hit, right? long/short/long…..

  • Skynard

    Take AUDJPY for example, we received a down exhaustion signal on the 5 min/go long tight stop. It worked, 60+pips. These signals are usually for scalps. Once the AUD data was released it tanked:)

  • Darkthirty

    all I want out of an indicator is the turns

  • grednfer

    So far its ES has been pretty respectful of that upper resistance line.
    Stays up longer then it stays down though…..
    The lower support line it right around the year-end low.

  • Darkthirty

    now, if we can get a tap on geethner’s bankster phone, it’d be a wrap!

  • Darkthirty

    Reset your lines to the fisrt 2 tops and the bottoms, and you’ll have an ending diagonal with an “E” wave throwover…usually reverts to where it began

  • Skynard

    EURUSD 5 min trigger:)

  • beentohardknocksU

    That was my signal to go – had been short for a while and didn’t want to overstay my welcome.  That was a pretty neat entrance on the NLSL breach and it worked for a good run.  

  • grednfer

    The lines are drawn based on the price. The bottom line extends back to nov 08…….long ass rally man.
    ? is…….is it done?

  • Darkthirty

    It’s all just fractals

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You just wait – something good is coming… Soon now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Can you contact me at admin@ please?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    @DarkThirty Can you contact me please at admin@?

  • convictscott

    I agree Bobby – the numbers don’t get much better than 60/40 anyway, so when you hit that sort of ballpark, backtest for max drawdown and done

  • convictscott

    Larry – the greatest difference to my trading performance has not been using different entry setups – it has been optimising “campaign management” how and where I trail a stop, exit and reverse direction, or hit a target, and money management – how I change position sizing after a series of wins and losers, how much of a drawdown I will have in a month before stopping trading, etc.

    Think of it this way. 99% of traders are losers. I can absolutely 100% bet that all those losers are poring over charts right now, trying to divine the future.

    If you want to be the 1% who make money, you have to do something different. Not just read the chicken entrails a bit better than the next guy, find the perfect moving average or RSI settings, or MACD crossover. Forget about predicting market direction, it is a FOOLS ERRAND. The best traders always speak in terms of probabilities, the crystal ball is always broken.

    You absolutely CAN be a profitable trader entering on a coin flip, if your campaign management is excellent. 

    Test this. Pull out a daily chart of any currency or index. Enter on a coin flip heads for long, tails for short. Exit at close if you are not in profit at the end of the day. Exit after day 2 close or day 3 close. This is a profitable system, based on the sound principle of cutting your losses short and letting your profits run.

    You need to find an edge in the market. That is a trivial thing for you to do if you are willing to put in a little work. Your edge needs to be consistent across markets and timeframes. Don’t think that you are suddenly going to get this awesome system that predicts market direction – markets do not work that way. If you have an edge that plays out consistently and the discipline to apply it the same way every time, you will be one of the 1% not the 99%.

    If you wake up every day and start loading charts looking for a “good trade” you are already starting to think like the 99% and not like the 1% :)

    One system I developed based on Krastins good cop bad cop principle, that after a period of markets being easy to trade, they fuck you around.

    After a whole session of trending price (either NYSE, Asian or Euro) you get a cross current of different factors at play which tend to make the action choppy and hard to predict, right when it looks most bullish or bearish. 

    The odds are high that the following session will be choppy, with successul bulls banking profits, latecoming bulls buying in, stupid bears betting on a reversal, etc.

    What I do in this instance is to drop down the timeframe to 1hr, and look for a situation where the (20,2) bollinger bands are flat.

    I enter at the extreme of the bollinger and exit at the opposite extreme, using a 14 period Average True Range stop. I move stop to breakeven when the bollinger band midpoint is reached.

    This is a pretty stupid system which anyone could improve on. My point is that amateurs spend their time picking market direction and professionals work on their methods, systems and skills.

  • AmazingLarry

    Thanks for that, Scott.

    It’s funny, the market has rewarded my “edge” based on my own little system in the past and my brain can’t let go of it. It told me to buy NFLX at $54 so I did… and just ride, but my campaign mgmnt took me out too early. That stings. But I’m learning and getting better because of it so I welcome the mistakes.

    I know better than to time it. That shit has killed me in the past. I get that. Also know better than to think for one second that I can “beat” the market, like I know something it doesn’t. Learned that one the hard way, too.

    Guess the future for me revolves around sticking with the plan no matter what. I tend to add too much to the mix. About 10% of my paper is traded; the rest is buy and ride for the long term in my retirement account. I just don’t have the funds and leverage to bank serious coin at this point. 

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001131611045 Exar Kun

     Oh well… took all the profits off the table for the Dow30 long yesterday at the halfway  mark. Didnt expect the futures to hit such a hot streak.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    /NG looks like it wants to break to the upside now. Need 3.4 broken.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    This horizontal line at 1491ish (1491-1493 ES)… How can it be not broken?
    OTOH, would you enter a short at 1505-1506. I would
    Chop-chop (enemy of “go-go”)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
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    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸





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