860 please!!

UPDATE 1:14pm EST: We’re back at the YM VWAP and thus far computer still says no. I just dumped a little NQ hedge in my daytrading account (not the Zero trading account). Unless we breach this level equities won’t go anywhere fast….

BTW, the Yen is approaching its own VWAP from above – I think this could become VERY interesting if it bounces to the upside.

UPDATE 1:22pm EST: That’s what I thought. Yen bounced back up from the VWAP and equities made a U-turn. As I’ve said – I’m on fire today…

FYI: the more longer term Zero is pointing up now – so I do expect a rally here at some point unless it turns out to be a false positive signal.

UPDATE 1:26pm EST: Alright, let’s take a step back now;

Looking at the action of the last 90 minutes it’s clear that there’s a buyer in this current region. So, although I’ve been trading the swings quite nicely I am prepared for a sustained counter rally here at some point. We have stopped making lower lows and lower lows. Zero is already pointing up – let’s see if it’s calling the shots today.

UPDATE 1:37pm EST: Crank it up, steel rats!

UPDATE 1:57pm EST: Make or break time for the bulls. YM back at VWAP and so is the Yen. So far I don’t see sufficient momentum yet to believe in a rally.

UPDATE 2:00pm EST: VWAP to YM: Computer says no!

UPDATE 2:09pm EST: We’re near the 867 S2 pivot and the 1193 NQ pivot. Expecting a little bounce here…

UPDATE 2:15pm EST: Yen looks like it might bust out of the gate here which would supress any rally attempts off of those pivots. Watch the Yen people – it’s driving the action today.

UPDATE 2:23pm EST: FYI – if/when we drop through those pivots – next destination is 860 on the SPX. There’s definitely a buyer there – first attempt failed as expected.

UPDATE 2:39pm EST: We are now below the ES and NQ S2 pivots. If those hold – well, you know….

UPDATE 3:12pm EST: And now for something completely different:

Courtesy of Eric_SFL: long FedEx.

UPDATE CLOSING BELL: Well, today was a great day for me – glad you have you rats along for the ride. Even tagged on some NQ day trades which produced additional $$. The Zero trades are producing like they should as well. I expect to see a rally here anytime soon, so I remain humble & nimble.

Berk will post an update tonight – looking forward to that one.

This entry was posted on Monday, January 12th, 2009 at 1:15 pm and is filed under Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Reza

Anyone looking at PLD, any thoughts on that.
etechpartner

Been holding it short for a few days now.
katzo7

PLD is a very good short candidate but it might go up a few points from here following any up action in the market.

The FSLR short I recommended on Sunday is up (reallly it's down) 12 points. Target 141.
SPWRA, which I like even better as a short, is down 3.77. Target 11.
BigEgg

Newbie here, so go easy on me. Not sure how y'all feel about shippers, but GNK is sporting a pretty IH&S and took a nice hit today. Might be a good spot to load up, especially if you feel a rally is soon in the works.
etechpartner

You might get a bit of a retracement up the side of the shoulder stemming from a bounce in the market. Personally I would wait and short it at the end of the retrace or when it breaks below 16.50 / 16.00
DJ

Sold my spy, iwm puts and tza. Bought /nq when spx was at 862
Sam

Went full out short at the close today, all my money is now on FAZ, s&p 820, here we come.
etechpartner

Thats very ambitious. Best of luck to you.
T.B. Aurelius

I think all the indices are at precisely the most important place...
As with VIX, these inflection points are dead center of possible leap to either direction...
Even if you had a good day and are excited beyond words, this is not a place or time to celebrate, I reckon...
molecool

I'm just going to hedge my way to the upside now. Bounces are expected. You guys are thinking way too short term. No wonder y'all get whipsawed to hell all the time...
T.B. Aurelius

Me?
Keirsten

Initiated short on POT and MOS. Tight stops, stick a fork in it.
T.B. Aurelius

http://screencast.com/t/PzEv7ocyPvB
etechpartner

The hardest thing for me is to just sit still and let it happen. Thanks to Mole I was well positioned at 932 and now I just have to restrain myself from trying to "improve" my performance. I held some addl FAZ and sold it but picked it back up when I saw the Zero drop. But thats about it. Thats the only thing I am messing with. If we hit 860 I might add another 50 shares TNA as a hedge just in case. Otherwise its all a matter of 'Don't just do something ! Sit there ! "
bender_b_rodriguez

i hear that brother!
T.B. Aurelius

Doing nothing...
is the most difficult thing in the world...
molecool

Not to a trend trader - let those suckers run guys. We keep them bitches until SPX 650.....
etechpartner

Thats the plan. And in-between if I get a little itch I end up either hedging a bit with some ETF's or attenuating a bit with some ETF's. But never so much as to get in trouble. Although, ETF's being what they are, I may eventually try an NQ contract instead.
Erikd

2 out of 3 below key levels..... 8>)
Tronchaser

The June SPY put play is almost double what I grabbed it for....

Question, are you planning on dumping those once we bounce, and reloading? Or is that something everyone is just going to sit on and let that wonderful vega do its thing?
AKJ

see mole's weekend update yesterday.
Sal

I am holding on to it. 820 is the target and than listen to the king of leeches (Mole). EW count is calling for at least 820. Off course any thing is possible.
Tronchaser

Thanks for the replies fellas.... I see the "all seeing" chart now. :)
mACcA

Anyone has a thought on ABT?
T.B. Aurelius

http://screencast.com/t/q3QT80GqlV
T.B. Aurelius

http://screencast.com/t/V2dhsDXl
zstock7

I posted the wrong 2sweets numbers --its 846 = 89% and 794 + 94% on the SPX weekly--
Erikd

below 37.50 on $BKX :>) the other two mentioned soon to follow...
peterey

Erikd,
Do you still expect a gap down tomorrow?
Thanks.
T.B. Aurelius

To me it looks like a sustained selling...
Shake out, it could be....
But the intensity feels like a real selling......
Just an observation...
Erikd

check out all the possible support levels on all time frames that XLF has moved thru today.....
also look at the hourly candles looks very orderly to the downside...
do not believe that if we get any kind of bounce that these overhead trendlines will be resistance...
not many more support levels below us now.. possible major GAP overnight setting up..
take a look XLF http://screencast.com/t/KnMVlwXCdd
katzo7

Gap up or down?
Erikd

had a typo in above comment those overhead will act as resistance... DO BELIEVE..
sorry. strong possibilty of GAP DOWN overnight will have to watch key levels posted here earlier today on XLF $BKX RKH
T.B. Aurelius

I think...
That is a very distinct possibility....
Churning is ferocious...and even with rather positive TICK, rally looks like a struggle...
Then again, who knows...only time will tell...
katzo7

Thnx, that is what I though you were getting at. Clear sky below.
Chrys

Remember this is Option Expiration Week. I think we are likely to rally after bouncing off 860. Reload on puts at 910-920.
Enfinity

Look at the BKX (leading index) and you will see that the slope of the decline is negatively increasing like a parabola...I would expect there to be a sharp spill before we bounce. This does not imply a retest of november lows per se, but it does imply going lower from here in a volatile downdraft before a material bounce. I also don't believe in quintuple bottoms (spx 857).

:)
molecool

I don't think we'll bounce that much at 860 - wouldn't really match that wave count. But nothing is impossible of course...
zstock7

There's way too many falling knives out there today. I think I can catch one, but it's a dangerous activity--RKH,TROW,JPM,SINA,FAS just to name a couple.
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

You want a new low for XLF you got it.
geckoman

SPY vs. DIA. One has broken a channel while the other one lagging a bit.

SPY: http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folders/Jing/media/7d0673b8-8c22-47ce-976a-db694bac3d8c

DIA: http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folders/Jing/media/cc692925-c7fb-40c1-95fe-5896f8e29d02
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

NDX has not broken either.
geckoman

good catch. I checked IWM and it broke. Not sure what it means. Would think Dow and Q's need to break too? They all have broken the 50 DMA cleanly.
nepharis

Hehe, well, I was way off calling for a turnaround at 880! I picked up some SPY put options early this morning for a hedge, and they are doing smashingly well right now. Hoping we stay low over night, since I CANT SELL THEM because of the stupid NASD day trader rule (already at 3 round trips in the last 5 days).

Also went long on PCX today. Big drop from news on closing a mine, but I think they'll turn around pretty quick.
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Follow the yellow brick road!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHCGVAf7Fjw
Thrownaway

Is there any better feeling than obsessively watching a winning position tick higher?
Erikd

blown thru S3 levels on the S/P cash and ES futures!!!! today..
Erikd

OH my goodness we are above a monthly trendline on the $VIX ----- it is getting better for the bears each passing minute...... today..
Keirsten

Gap filled on SKF from 12/15
T.B. Aurelius

http://screencast.com/t/HG7qhikqj8I
Chrys

Looks like 5 waves up from low. Can you even apply EW to the VIX? It would nice for a rally to 910 to reload on puts.
T.B. Aurelius

I think so...
But the rules need changes, I reckon...
Erikd

T.B. you got that TALENT no Doubt!!! 8>)
T.B. Aurelius

Thank you kindly...
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

XLF now below 11
Thrownaway

Opened $10k in additional TNA shorts @ 29.70. Very tight stop at 30.28.
Thrownaway

Stop just got a lot more breathing room, LOL! Thanks, Mr. Market!
Erikd

critical levels for market to stay under at the close today are
XLF - 10.55

$BKX - 37.50

RKH - 63.40

mark these levels.......
standard_and_poor

I will, thanks Erik.
Lawrence_Chiu

XLF 10.95 above
$BKX 37.42 BELOW
RKH 64 above

Only $BKX closed below your critical levels. Appreciate your thoughts on what this means for the bearish case.
jigdaddy

thanks for your insight!
Keirsten

GS has some support in that $74 -75 area, but the RSI is down there in pond scum territory. Not sure Rome was un-built in a day, but this could get fun.
Enfinity

11-21 close: 36.91
11-24 low: 36.92
12-2 low: 39.06
geckoman

WFC off 30% since I posted the break of the triangle last week.
Erikd

XLF below 11.15 ..... :>) stay short below this..... at this point.. today could get very nasty into the close.
molecool

Nasty for who? The mouth breathers!
Erikd

nasty for the bulls as the market continues to sell-off. and nastily good for evil bears today..
Keirsten

Somebody got himself a late, but nice birthday present today. Mwhahahahaha
Marc

I'm sorry for asking if it is obvious, but I cannot find the definition of V W A P on this site which is used here in reference to the Japanese Yen. What does it mean please? Thank-you.
Enfinity

volume-weighted average price.
buylo

VWAP see definition wikipedia.org/wiki/WVAP as opposed to OBV on balance volume
molecool

It's an indicator - what setup are you running. TOS?
geckoman

I am running TOS. How do you set up
C.C. Rider

Follow the leader. Things should ACCELERATE FROM HERE!

http://www.screencast.com/users/texana44/folders/Default/media/c4e32a1d-2d06-447c-bb05-ee9ed5b6f274
cnbs08

End of the road for SKF short term or continuation coming?

I'd wait for 132-135 to start initiating any shorts.....only for the nimble though.....imo
krazykev

Looks like the Indices can't get off . 2009 has started w/ a Big Bang already for me . Mole and Berk you guys ready to party me yet ??
molecool

Party is happening over here!
krazykev

I'M IN LA NOW , TELL ME WHERE MY BROTHER - I'LL JOIN YOUR PARTAY !!
Bricks

I can't believe the fact that Citigroup will need more money and is in really bad shape is a suprise to anyone. Anyone who thought the worst was over for the banks must have some fantastic happy pills.
molecool

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX3UqY8KZpU
Erikd

still making new lows..... :>)
molecool

Hey, I'm not complaining :-)
Erikd

molecool this day is shaping up to get really nastily into the close with possible imploding overnite!!!!! studying the closing patterns will prove to be critical today IMO..
molecool

I'm set up to reap the rewards. And don't forget - earning season is upon us. Correction: losing season is upon us....
standard_and_poor

Still holding qqqq puts and long faz from last week as well as shorts and puts on stocks recommended sunday night with tight stops as stated on post.
molecool

If you sell those cubes before 820 I kick your butt.
standard_and_poor

Thanks Mole, we need to hear that kind of talk, I am thinking of buying cube calls. I know you and leeches mostly follow spx, me thinks there's a good chance we'll see 895 within following nine market hours, but I'm keeping my positions intact even if it means pulling my hair out, I hope I'm wrong.
Thanks for your encouragement.
Sal

mole
You are good. But you were right Zero signaled that it was a fake out. Zero is kind to the traders today.
Thank you The King of Leeches.
MaxPainMan

wow, Zero hit -5
molecool

It loves the action. I didn't like that little fake out but had the prescience to reverse once the long ETA disappeared.
Teito

I will not be one of the buyers here... no way.... I will let other put their money on the line and create that support. I do think a bounce will come soon but I rather miss that initial move than to be too early... hate being early
geckoman

Yes, buying the dips has changed to selling the rips.
molecool

That's a good approach - let the market show you where it'll go. Right now the trend is still down but I wanted to throw it out before everyone gets too over confident.
zstock7

Mole, I'm going with 2sweets SPX 879 weekly go long--94%--
AA is all set to beat the street in AH, but of course that's 50/50. I think it's better than 50/50, but that's just an opinion.
LoneRanger

Didn't AA pre-warn last week?
zstock7

I got the 2sweets numbers wrong--its 846 = 89% and 794 + 94% on the SPX weekly--
AA could drop HUGE in AH too, that's why it's 50/50
geckoman

SPX still walking down downtrending line resistance. Additionally there is a valid BB Squeeze on the 30m chart still saying to stay short.

http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folders/Jing/media/d566edf0-0296-4479-bd7a-50011130b61e
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

New lows for XLF
zstock7

alright Mr Vix !!
Good news !!
If anyone wants to play the VIX, but lack the option knowledge, USE the VIX FEB 55 call. That's the ONE to work with---I'll go post this info at all my other old haunts/ other blogs
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

I wont be trading Mr Vix this time around. :(
LoneRanger

Mr. Vix has been very good to me. Back in September when the vix was 30. I bought the Nov 40's 100 contracts at 1.10 per. Well needless to say when the vix it 50 I bailed and made $$$$$$$$$$$$. I only left 200k on the table. Still have not gotten over that. However, went back into the abyss when the Vix was at 38 only with 50 contracts this time around. Bought the Mar 50's. Close to a double now.. The question is when do I sell? How high can the Vix go? I thought 60-70 was the high range and anticipated a snap back rally (which we got but after exp date).

Zstock what is your suggestion?
LoneRanger

I have a great track record in picking but I am always a little early to party and the first to leave. ie covered my tlt puts a little too early leaving only 50k on the table this time. Mole told me to keep them but once again no balls nor patience. Anytime I seen green I grab. Learned my lesson from .com era. I had the right stocks back then and was up 1 million only to see it get pissed away. It was a hard lesson to learn.
LoneRanger

I think I need to attend Stockholder Anonymous. What works is you need to trade in pairs. Let one individual control the trades and the other prepares the short and medium game plan. Execute accordingly.
Teito

I am stilll short via SDS. I will cover around 860ish... maybe mid 860 area... everyone seems to be eyeing that level.
BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

Wont be any rally without XLF
Erikd

following the yellow brick road... :>)
molecool

Are you the lion or the tin man? BTW, I saw a restored copy of The Wizard of Oz on FILM a year ago or so. They used some computer algo to properly align the three film spools. Looked like it was filmed in HD yesterday....
Erikd

This picture describes me well http://screencast.com/t/bkTv88LtbC
Keirsten

I agree... might get a little counter rally, taking a swing with a position in BGU, but don't expect to get much to the upside.

860 please!!

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